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| 2. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 3. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 4. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 6. |
- Al-Delaimy, WK, et al.
(author)
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Plasma carotenoids as biomarkers of intake of fruits and vegetables: ecological-level correlations in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)
- 2005
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In: European Journal of Clinical Nutrition. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-5640 .- 0954-3007. ; 59:12, s. 1397-1408
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: The aim of this study was to assess the ability of a single 24-h dietary recall (24HDR) and food questionnaires (FQ) to predict plasma carotenoid levels at the ecological level by assessing the relationship between mean plasma carotenoid levels and mean intake of fruit and vegetables measured by 24HDR and FQ across 16 European regions. Design: A random subsample of 3089 subjects was included, stratified by age and gender. They provided blood samples and dietary information between 1992 and 2000 as part of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Results: Using Spearman's correlation coefficients, the correlations between mean regional 24HDR fruit and vegetable variables and corresponding mean plasma carotenoid levels were generally higher than the correlations using FQ means. The highest correlation was between the 24HDR citrus fruit variable and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.90). For 24HDR, total fruits and vegetables were highly correlated with lutein, zeaxanthin, and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.83-0.87), while vegetables were more closely related with lutein (r = 0.69) and zeaxanthin (r = 0.68), and fruits correlated with zeaxanthin (r = 0.87) and beta-cryptoxanthin (r = 0.84). Root vegetables (r = 0.81) and total carrots (r = 0.71) were well correlated with alpha-carotene. In the multivariate models adjusting for age, body mass index, and season, and using observations of means stratified by sex and region, the association was generally higher for 24HDR compared to FQ. Conclusion: Mean regional intakes of fruits and vegetables in several European countries were closely correlated with corresponding mean plasma levels of individual carotenoids. Fruits and vegetables measured by 24HDR were generally better able to predict plasma carotenoids at the ecological level.
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| 7. |
- Guerreiro, R., et al.
(author)
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Investigating the genetic architecture of dementia with Lewy bodies: a two-stage genome-wide association study
- 2018
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In: Lancet Neurology. - 1474-4422. ; 17:1, s. 64-74
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Dementia with Lewy bodies is the second most common form of dementia in elderly people but has been overshadowed in the research field, partly because of similarities between dementia with Lewy bodies, Parkinson's disease, and Alzheimer's disease. So far, to our knowledge, no large-scale genetic study of dementia with Lewy bodies has been done. To better understand the genetic basis of dementia with Lewy bodies, we have done a genome-wide association study with the aim of identifying genetic risk factors for this disorder. Methods In this two-stage genome-wide association study, we collected samples from white participants of European ancestry who had been diagnosed with dementia with Lewy bodies according to established clinical or pathological criteria. In the discovery stage (with the case cohort recruited from 22 centres in ten countries and the controls derived from two publicly available database of Genotypes and Phenotypes studies [phs000404.v1.p1 and phs000982.v1.p1] in the USA), we performed genotyping and exploited the recently established Haplotype Reference Consortium panel as the basis for imputation. Pathological samples were ascertained following autopsy in each individual brain bank, whereas clinical samples were collected after participant examination. There was no specific timeframe for collection of samples. We did association analyses in all participants with dementia with Lewy bodies, and also only in participants with pathological diagnosis. In the replication stage, we performed genotyping of significant and suggestive results from the discovery stage. Lastly, we did a meta-analysis of both stages under a fixed-effects model and used logistic regression to test for association in each stage. Findings This study included 1743 patients with dementia with Lewy bodies (1324 with pathological diagnosis) and 4454 controls (1216 patients with dementia with Lewy bodies vs 3791 controls in the discovery stage; 527 vs 663 in the replication stage). Results confirm previously reported associations: APOE (rs429358; odds ratio [OR] 2.40, 95% CI 2.14-2.70; p=1.05 x 10-48), SNCA (rs7681440; OR 0.73, 0.66-0.81; p=6.39 x 10(-10)), and GBA (rs35749011; OR 2.55, 1.88-3.46; p=1.78 x 10(-9)). They also provide some evidence for a novel candidate locus, namely CNTN1 (rs7314908; OR 1.51, 1.27-1.79; p=2.32 x 10(-6)); further replication will be important. Additionally, we estimate the heritable component of dementia with Lewy bodies to be about 36%. Interpretation Despite the small sample size for a genome-wide association study, and acknowledging the potential biases from ascertaining samples from multiple locations, we present the most comprehensive and well powered genetic study in dementia with Lewy bodies so far. These data show that common genetic variability has a role in the disease.
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| 8. |
- Langefeld, Carl D., et al.
(author)
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Transancestral mapping and genetic load in systemic lupus erythematosus
- 2017
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In: Nature Communications. - : NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP. - 2041-1723. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is an autoimmune disease with marked gender and ethnic disparities. We report a large transancestral association study of SLE using Immunochip genotype data from 27,574 individuals of European (EA), African (AA) and Hispanic Amerindian (HA) ancestry. We identify 58 distinct non-HLA regions in EA, 9 in AA and 16 in HA (similar to 50% of these regions have multiple independent associations); these include 24 novel SLE regions (P < 5 x 10(-8)), refined association signals in established regions, extended associations to additional ancestries, and a disentangled complex HLA multigenic effect. The risk allele count (genetic load) exhibits an accelerating pattern of SLE risk, leading us to posit a cumulative hit hypothesis for autoimmune disease. Comparing results across the three ancestries identifies both ancestry-dependent and ancestry-independent contributions to SLE risk. Our results are consistent with the unique and complex histories of the populations sampled, and collectively help clarify the genetic architecture and ethnic disparities in SLE.
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| 9. |
- Obón-Santacana, M., et al.
(author)
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Dietary intake of acrylamide and endometrial cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort
- 2014
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In: British Journal of Cancer. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 0007-0920 .- 1532-1827. ; 111:5, s. 987-997
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Three prospective studies have evaluated the association between dietary acrylamide intake and endometrial cancer (EC) risk with inconsistent results. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk: for overall EC, for type-I EC, and in never smokers and never users of oral contraceptives (OCs). Smoking is a source of acrylamide, and OC use is a protective factor for EC risk. METHODS: Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for the association between acrylamide intake and EC risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Acrylamide intake was estimated from the EU acrylamide monitoring database, which was matched with EPIC questionnaire-based food consumption data. Acrylamide intake was energy adjusted using the residual method. RESULTS: No associations were observed between acrylamide intake and overall EC (n = 1382) or type-I EC risk (n = 627). We observed increasing relative risks for type-I EC with increasing acrylamide intake among women who both never smoked and were non-users of OCs (HRQ5vsQ1: 1.97, 95% CI: 1.08-3.62; likelihood ratio test (LRT) P-value: 0.01, n = 203). CONCLUSIONS: Dietary intake of acrylamide was not associated with overall or type-I EC risk; however, positive associations with type I were observed in women who were both non-users of OCs and never smokers.
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| 10. |
- Obon-Santacana, M., et al.
(author)
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Dietary intake of acrylamide and pancreatic cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort
- 2013
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In: Annals of Oncology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1569-8041 .- 0923-7534. ; 24:10, s. 2645-2651
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 1994, acrylamide (AA) was classified as a probable human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. In 2002, AA was discovered at relatively high concentrations in some starchy, plant-based foods cooked at high temperatures. A prospective analysis was conducted to evaluate the association between the dietary intake of AA and ductal adenocarcinoma of the exocrine pancreatic cancer (PC) risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort using Cox regression modeling. EPIC includes > 500 000 men and women aged 35-75 at enrollment from 10 European countries. AA intake was estimated for each participant by combining questionnaire-based food consumption data with a harmonized AA database derived from the EU monitoring database of AA levels in foods, and evaluated in quintiles and continuously. After a mean follow-up of 11 years, 865 first incident adenocarcinomas of the exocrine pancreas were observed and included in the present analysis. At baseline, the mean dietary AA intake in EPIC was 26.22 mu g/day. No overall association was found between continuous or quintiles of dietary AA intake and PC risk in EPIC (HR:0.95, 95%CI:0.89-1.01 per 10 mu g/day). There was no effect measure modification by smoking status, sex, diabetes, alcohol intake or geographic region. However, there was an inverse association (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.61-0.88 per 10 mu g/day) between AA intake and PC risk in obese persons as defined using the body mass index (BMI, >= 30 kg/m(2)), but not when body fatness was defined using waist and hip circumference or their ratio. Dietary intake of AA was not associated with an increased risk of PC in the EPIC cohort.
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