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- Elmhagen, Bodil, 1973-, et al.
(author)
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Changes in vole and lemming fluctuations in northern Sweden 1960-2008 revealed by fox dynamics
- 2011
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In: Annales Zoologici Fennici. - : Finnish Zoological and Botanical Publishing Board. - 0003-455X .- 1797-2450. ; 48:3, s. 167-179
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cyclic dynamics with extensive spatial synchrony has long been regarded as characteristic of key herbivores at high latitudes. This contrasts to recent reports of fading cycles in arvicoline rodents in boreal and alpine Fennoscandia. We investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of boreal red fox and alpine arctic fox in Sweden as a proxy for the dynamics of their main prey, voles and Norwegian lemming, respectively. We analyse data from five decades, 1960-2008, with wavelets and autocorrelation approaches. Cyclic dynamics were identified with at least one method in all populations (arctic fox n = 3, red fox n = 6). The dynamics were synchronous between populations, or coupled with a 1-yr lag, in 8 of 13 pairwise comparisons. Importantly though, the dynamics were heterogeneous in space and time. All analytical approaches identified fading cycles in the three arctic fox populations and two northern red fox populations. At least one method identified similar patterns in three southern red fox populations. Red fox dynamics were cyclic in the 1970s primarily, while arctic fox dynamics was cyclic until the late 1980s or early 1990s. When cyclic, 4-yr cycles dominated in arctic fox and northern red fox, whilst 3-4-yr cycles was found in southern red foxes. Significant cyclic regimes reappeared in the 1990s or 2000s in two red fox populations and one arctic fox population. Cycles and regionally coupled dynamics appeared associated in northern arctic and red foxes. This study supports accumulating evidence which suggests that cyclic and synchronous patterns in the dynamics of lemmings and voles are nonstationary in space and time. Furthermore, the similar patterns of change in both fox species indicate that persistence of cycles is governed by similar mechanisms in lemmings and voles.
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| 2. |
- Elmhagen, Bodil, 1973-
(author)
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Interference competition between arctic and red foxes.
- 2003
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- In this thesis, I investigate the relationship between arctic foxes Alopex lagopus and red foxes Vulpes vulpes in Swedish mountain tundra habitat (fjällen). The arctic fox population was severely reduced by hunting in the early 20th century. It has not recovered despite protection since 1928 and it is endangered, while the red fox population increased in 1930-1960.I found a high food niche overlap between arctic and red foxes and they responded similarly to changes in the prey base, indicating similar prey preferences. Hence, arctic and red foxes should compete for the same territories; more precisely the ones in low altitude areas close to the tree-line where prey abundance is relatively high. In the 19th century, arctic foxes bred in all tundra habitats. An analysis of present den use showed that arctic foxes have retreated to higher altitudes as they rarely used the lower parts of their former range. Instead, red foxes did. Arctic foxes were highly dependent on the availability of Norwegian lemmings Lemmus lemmus for reproduction, while red foxes at lower altitudes had better access to alternative prey.Interference competition imply that there are behavioural interactions between competing species, e.g. fighting or predation, but interactions can also be more subtle and imply that inferior species avoid encounters with stronger competitors by changing their habitat use. Red foxes are larger than arctic foxes. Hence, they have an advantage in direct fights and arctic foxes may either be driven away from their dens when red foxes establish in the vicinity, or they avoid habitats where they risk encounters with red foxes. I found that arctic foxes almost exclusively used dens situated farther than 8 km from inhabited red fox dens. In two out of three cases when they bred closer to red foxes, there was red fox predation on arctic fox cubs. Further, simulations of arctic fox avoidance of areas surrounding inhabited red fox dens in a spatially explicit population model, indicated that relatively small numbers of red foxes might have a large impact on arctic fox population size and distribution.Thus, the results of this thesis indicate that interference competition with red foxes has hampered arctic fox recovery after the initial population decline, by causing a substantial reduction in arctic fox habitat. Further, red foxes have taken over the most productive areas and remaining arctic fox habitats is of such low quality that it is uncertain whether it can maintain even a small arctic fox population.
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| 3. |
- Elmhagen, Bodil, 1973-, et al.
(author)
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Top predators, mesopredators and their prey : interference ecosystems along bioclimatic productivity gradients
- 2010
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In: Journal of Animal Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8790 .- 1365-2656. ; 79:4, s. 785-794
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- 1. The Mesopredator Release Hypothesis (MRH) suggests that top predator suppression of mesopredators is a key ecosystem function with cascading impacts on herbivore prey, but it remains to be shown that this top-down cascade impacts the large-scale structure of ecosystems.2. The Exploitation Ecosystems Hypothesis (EEH) predicts that regional ecosystem structures are determined by top-down exploitation and bottom-up productivity. In contrast to MRH, EEH assumes that interference among predators has a negligible impact on the structure of ecosystems with three trophic levels.3. We use the recolonisation of a top predator in a three-level boreal ecosystem as a natural experiment to test if large-scale biomass distributions and population trends support MRH. Inspired by EEH, we also test if top-down interference and bottom-up productivity impact regional ecosystem structures.4. We use data from the Finnish Wildlife Triangle Scheme which has monitored top predator (lynx Lynx lynx), mesopredator (red fox Vulpes vulpes) and prey (mountain hare Lepus timidus) abundance for 17 years in a 200 000 km2 study area which covers a distinct productivity gradient.5. Fox biomass was lower than expected from productivity where lynx biomass was high, while hare biomass was lower than expected from productivity where fox biomass was high. Hence, where interference controlled fox abundance, lynx had an indirect positive impact on hare abundance as predicted by MRH. The rates of change indicated that lynx expansion gradually suppressed fox biomass.6. Lynx status caused shifts between ecosystem structures. In the “interference ecosystem”, lynx and hare biomass increased with productivity whilst fox biomass did not. In the “mesopredator release ecosystem”, fox biomass increased with productivity but hare biomass did not. Thus, biomass controlled top-down did not respond to changes in productivity. This fulfils a critical prediction of EEH.7. We conclude that the cascade involving top predators, mesopredators and their prey can determine large-scale biomass distribution patterns and regional ecosystem structures. Hence, interference within trophic levels has to be taken into account to understand how terrestrial ecosystem structures are shaped.
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| 4. |
- Elmhagen, Bodil, 1973-, et al.
(author)
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Trophic control of mesopredators in terrestrial ecosystems: top-down or bottom-up?
- 2007
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In: Ecology Letters. - : Wiley. - 1461-023X .- 1461-0248. ; 10:3, s. 197-206
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- It has been argued that widespread extinctions of top predators have changed terrestrial ecosystem structures through mesopredator release, where increased abundances of medium-sized predators have detrimental effects on prey communities. This top-down concept has received much attention within conservation biology, but few studies have demonstrated the phenomenon. The concept has been criticized since alternative explanations involving bottom-up impacts from bioclimatic effects on ecosystem productivity and from anthropogenic habitat change are rarely considered. We analyse the response of a mesopredator (the red fox) to declines in top predators (wolf and Eurasian lynx) and agricultural expansion over 90 years in Sweden, taking bioclimatic effects into account. We show a top-down mesopredator release effect, but ecosystem productivity determined its strength. The impacts of agricultural activity were mediated by their effects on top predator populations. Thus, both top-down and bottom-up processes need to be understood for effective preservation of biodiversity in anthropogenically transformed ecosystems.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Herfindal, Ivar, et al.
(author)
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Population persistence in a landscape context : the case of endangered arctic fox populations in Fennoscandia
- 2010
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In: Ecography. - : Wiley. - 0906-7590 .- 1600-0587. ; 33:5, s. 932-941
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anthropogenic fragmentation of habitat and populations is recognized as one of the most important factors influencing loss of biodiversity. Since it is difficult to quantify demographic parameters in small populations, we need alternative methods to elucidate important factors affecting the viability of local populations. The Fennoscandian arctic fox inhabits a naturally fragmented alpine tundra environment, but historic anthropogenic impacts have further fragmented its distribution. After almost 80 yr of protection, the population remains critically endangered. Both intrinsic factors (related to the isolation and size of sub-populations) and extrinsic factors (related to environmental conditions influencing patch quality and interspecific competition) have been proposed as explanations for the lack of population growth. To distinguish between these hypotheses, we conducted a spatially explicit analysis that compares areas where the species has persisted with areas where it has become locally extinct. We used characteristics of the fragments of alpine tundra habitat and individual arctic fox breeding dens (including both currently active dens and historically active dens) within the fragments to evaluate the importance of habitat characteristics and connectivity in explaining variation in persistence within a fragment. The number of reproductive events in a fragment was related to the size of the fragment, but not more than expected following a 1:1 relationship, suggesting little effect of fragment size on the relative number of reproductions. The likelihood of a den being used for breeding was positively associated with factors minimising interspecific competition as well as increasing within-fragment connectivity. These results support the idea that the failure of Fennoscandian arctic fox to recover is caused by demographic factors that can be related to fine-scale Allee or Allee-like effects, as well as environmental influences related to increased competition and exclusion by red foxes
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| 7. |
- Shirley, Mark, et al.
(author)
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Modelling the spatial population dynamics of arctic foxes : the effects of red foxes and microtine cycles
- 2009
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In: Canadian Journal of Zoology. - 0008-4301 .- 1480-3283. ; 87, s. 1170-1183
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Fennoscandian arctic fox Vulpes lagopus (L., 1758) population is critically endangered, possibly because of increased interference competition from red foxes Vulpes vulpes (L., 1758) and fading cycles in microtine rodents, which cause food shortage. It is not known how these factors drive arctic fox population trends. To test their role in arctic fox decline, we developed a spatially-explicit and individual-based model that allowed us to simulate fox interactions and food availability in a real landscape. A sensitivity analysis revealed that simulated arctic fox population size and den occupancy were strongly correlated with fecundity and mortality during the microtine crash phase, but also with red fox status. Model simulations suggested that arctic fox population trends depended on microtine cycles and that arctic fox distributions were restricted by red fox presence. We compared the model predictions with field data collected at Vindelfjällen, Sweden. The model recreated the observed arctic fox trend only with the inclusion of arctic fox avoidance of red fox home ranges. The results indicate that avoidance behaviours can affect population trends and hence, that relatively small numbers of red foxes can have a strong negative impact on arctic fox population size and distribution.
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