| 1. |
- Fabritius, Henna, et al.
(author)
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Estimation of metapopulation colonization rates from disturbance history and occurrence-pattern data
- 2019
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In: Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0012-9658 .- 1939-9170. ; 100
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Occurrence patterns of many sessile species in dynamic landscapes are not in equilibrium due to their slow rates of metapopulation colonization and extinction. Colonization-extinction data enable the estimation of colonization rates for such species, but collecting the necessary data may require long waiting times between sampling years. Methods for estimating colonization rates of nonequilibrium metapopulations from single occurrence-pattern data have so far relied on additional data on patch ages and on past patch connectivities. We present an approach where metapopulation colonization rates are estimated from occurrence-pattern data and from disturbance history data that inform of past patch dynamics and that can be collected together with occurrence-pattern data. We estimated parameter values regulating patch and metapopulation dynamics by simulating patch network and metapopulation histories that result in present-like patch network configurations and metapopulation occurrence patterns. We tested our approach using occurrence-pattern data of the epiphytic lichen Lobaria pulmonaria in Fennoscandian forests, and fire-scar data that inform of the 400-yr history of fires and host tree dynamics in the same landscapes. The estimated model parameters were similar to estimates obtained using colonization-extinction data. The projected L. pulmonaria occupancy into the future also agreed with the respective projections that were made using the model estimated from colonization-extinction data. Our approach accelerates the estimation of metapopulation colonization rates for sessile species that are not in metapopulation equilibrium with the current landscape structure.
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| 2. |
- Fabritius, Henna
(author)
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Metapopulation perspective to institutional fit: maintenance of dynamic habitat networks
- 2017
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In: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 22
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Species living in metapopulations depend on connected habitat networks for their survival. If habitat networks experience fast temporal dynamics, species conservation requires preventing habitat discontinuities that could lead to metapopulation extinctions. However, few institutional solutions exist for the maintenance of spatiotemporally dynamic habitat networks outside of protected areas. To explore this often neglected problem, we studied the institutional fit of false heath fritillary (Melitaea diamina) conservation in Finland from the perspective of conservation institutions' ability to manage early successional habitat availability for this endangered species. We identified four institutional arrangements that enable effective conservation management of dynamic habitat networks: (1) acknowledgment of habitat dynamics, (2) monitoring of and responding to changes in the habitat network, (3) management of resources for fluctuating resource needs, and (4) scaling of activities through flexible collaborations. These arrangements provide the institutional flexibility needed for responding to temporal changes in habitat availability.
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| 3. |
- Moor, Helen, et al.
(author)
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Rebuilding green infrastructure in boreal production forest given future global wood demand
- 2022
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In: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 0021-8901 .- 1365-2664. ; 59, s. 1659-1669
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Global policy for future biodiversity conservation is ultimately implemented at landscape and local scales. In parallel, green infrastructure planning needs to account for socioeconomic dynamics at national and global scales. Progress towards policy goals must, in turn, be evaluated at the landscape scale. Evaluation tools are often environmental quality indicators. How developments of different organism groups will relate to developments of these indicators is unclear. We evaluated three management scenarios for a 100,000 hectare boreal forest landscape in the coming 100 years in terms of their effects on the future habitat suitability/occupancy of four bird species, six wood-decaying fungi and one lichen, most of them red-listed. The scenarios optimize financial returns and account for downscaled projected global demand of wood given a middle-of-the road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2). We contrast a reference scenario meeting the wood demand against an economy scenario with no upper harvest limit, and a green infrastructure scenario optimizing the levels of environmental indicators. Environmental indicators generally reached the highest and lowest levels in the green infrastructure and economy scenarios, respectively. Most indicators increased further in set-asides. The profit was 14% lower in the green infrastructure and 2% higher in the economy than in the reference scenario. In the green infrastructure scenario, the species increased on average by 135%, followed by the reference scenario (+65%), and the economy scenario (+47%). All bird species increased in the green infrastructure scenario, while in the other scenarios, only hazel grouse increased and Siberian tit instead decreased. Most fungi increased in the production forest of the green infrastructure scenario but decreased in the economy scenario. All increased in set-asides. In all scenarios, the lichen Lobaria pulmonaria increased, owing to host tree retention. Synthesis and applications. Effects of global socioeconomic developments can be downscaled and accounted for in planning landscape-scale forest and conservation management. Accounting for indicators of environmental quality identified forest management scenarios for reaching targets on both revenue and conservation. Rebuilding green infrastructure in the production forest was possible at a relatively minor economic cost and to the benefit of species of conservation concern.
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| 4. |
- Singer, Alexander, et al.
(author)
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Dating past colonization events to project future species distributions
- 2019
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In: Methods in Ecology and Evolution. - 2041-210X. ; 10, s. 471-480
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Knowledge on the colonization process is important to understand and project future species distributions. The classic method to quantify colonization rates is time-consuming, as it requires recording infrequent colonization events during extensive, repeated surveys. We present the novel "dating-based approach" that requires one complete survey of species occurrence and estimates of subpopulation ages to back-date colonization events. These data allow statistical reconstruction of a virtual, repeated survey to estimate colonization rates in response to environmental covariates or connectivity. With only 30% of survey effort, the dating-based approach provided similar estimates of rate and distance of dispersal of a metapopulation of the epiphytic moss Neckera pennata as the classic approach relying on long-term surveys. Projections of the number of colonization events during the next 100 years differed by only 2.3% (95%-credible interval: [-1.9%; 7.1%]) between methods. The dating-based approach is applicable across spatial scales and promises enhanced species distribution models with urgently needed quantitative dispersal information.
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