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- Kanai, M, et al.
(author)
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- 2023
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swepub:Mat__t
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Sherratt, K., et al.
(author)
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Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations
- 2023
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In: eLIFE. - : eLife Sciences Publications Ltd. - 2050-084X. ; 12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance.Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models.Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks.
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| 5. |
- Azevedo, Flavio, et al.
(author)
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Social and moral psychology of COVID-19 across 69 countries
- 2023
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In: Scientific Data. - : NATURE PORTFOLIO. - 2052-4463. ; 10:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all domains of human life, including the economic and social fabric of societies. One of the central strategies for managing public health throughout the pandemic has been through persuasive messaging and collective behaviour change. To help scholars better understand the social and moral psychology behind public health behaviour, we present a dataset comprising of 51,404 individuals from 69 countries. This dataset was collected for the International Collaboration on Social & Moral Psychology of COVID-19 project (ICSMP COVID-19). This social science survey invited participants around the world to complete a series of moral and psychological measures and public health attitudes about COVID-19 during an early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (between April and June 2020). The survey included seven broad categories of questions: COVID-19 beliefs and compliance behaviours; identity and social attitudes; ideology; health and well-being; moral beliefs and motivation; personality traits; and demographic variables. We report both raw and cleaned data, along with all survey materials, data visualisations, and psychometric evaluations of key variables.
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| 6. |
- Teufel, Felix, et al.
(author)
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Analysis of Attained Height and Diabetes Among 554,122 Adults Across 25 Low- and Middle-Income Countries
- 2020
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In: Diabetes Care. - : American Diabetes Association. - 1935-5548 .- 0149-5992. ; 43:10, s. 2403-2410
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes is rising rapidly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), but the factors driving this rapid increase are not well understood. Adult height, in particular shorter height, has been suggested to contribute to the pathophysiology and epidemiology of diabetes and may inform how adverse environmental conditions in early life affect diabetes risk. We therefore systematically analyzed the association of adult height and diabetes across LMICs, where such conditions are prominent.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We pooled individual-level data from nationally representative surveys in LMICs that included anthropometric measurements and diabetes biomarkers. We calculated odds ratios (ORs) for the relationship between attained adult height and diabetes using multilevel mixed-effects logistic regression models. We estimated ORs for the pooled sample, major world regions, and individual countries, in addition to stratifying all analyses by sex. We examined heterogeneity by individual-level characteristics.RESULTS: Our sample included 554,122 individuals across 25 population-based surveys. Average height was 161.7 cm (95% CI 161.2-162.3), and the crude prevalence of diabetes was 7.5% (95% CI 6.9-8.2). We found no relationship between adult height and diabetes across LMICs globally or in most world regions. When stratifying our sample by country and sex, we found an inverse association between adult height and diabetes in 5% of analyses (2 out of 50). Results were robust to alternative model specifications.CONCLUSIONS: Adult height is not associated with diabetes across LMICs. Environmental factors in early life reflected in attained adult height likely differ from those predisposing individuals for diabetes.
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| 7. |
- Van Bavel, Jay J., et al.
(author)
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National identity predicts public health support during a global pandemic
- 2022
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In: Nature Communications. - : Nature Portfolio. - 2041-1723. ; 13:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding collective behaviour is an important aspect of managing the pandemic response. Here the authors show in a large global study that participants that reported identifying more strongly with their nation reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies in the context of the pandemic. Changing collective behaviour and supporting non-pharmaceutical interventions is an important component in mitigating virus transmission during a pandemic. In a large international collaboration (Study 1, N = 49,968 across 67 countries), we investigated self-reported factors associated with public health behaviours (e.g., spatial distancing and stricter hygiene) and endorsed public policy interventions (e.g., closing bars and restaurants) during the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic (April-May 2020). Respondents who reported identifying more strongly with their nation consistently reported greater engagement in public health behaviours and support for public health policies. Results were similar for representative and non-representative national samples. Study 2 (N = 42 countries) conceptually replicated the central finding using aggregate indices of national identity (obtained using the World Values Survey) and a measure of actual behaviour change during the pandemic (obtained from Google mobility reports). Higher levels of national identification prior to the pandemic predicted lower mobility during the early stage of the pandemic (r = -0.40). We discuss the potential implications of links between national identity, leadership, and public health for managing COVID-19 and future pandemics.
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| 8. |
- Allwood, Jens, et al.
(author)
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Construction and annotation of a corpus of contemporary Nepali
- 2008
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In: Corpora. - : Edinburgh University Press. - 1749-5032 .- 1755-1676. ; 3:2, s. 213-225
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, we describe the construction of the 14-million-word Nepali National Corpus (NNC). This corpus includes both spoken and written data, the latter incorporating a Nepali match for FLOB and a broader collection of text. Additional resources within the NNC include parallel data (English–Nepali and Nepali–English) and a speech corpus. The NNC is encoded as Unicode text and marked up in CES-compatible XML. The whole corpus is also annotated with part-of-speech tags. We describe the process of devising a tagset and retraining tagger software for the Nepali language, for which there were no existing corpus resources. Finally, we explore some present and future applications of the corpus, including lexicography, NLP, and grammatical research.
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| 9. |
- Paudel, Prajwal, et al.
(author)
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Meconium aspiration syndrome : incidence, associated risk factors and outcome-evidence from a multicentric study in low-resource settings in Nepal
- 2020
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In: Journal of Paediatrics and Child Health. - : WILEY. - 1034-4810 .- 1440-1754. ; 56:4, s. 630-635
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- AimThe aim of this study was to identify the incidence, risk factors and outcome associated with meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS).MethodsAn observational study was conducted in 12 public hospitals in Nepal from 1 July 2017 to 29 August 2018. All babies born within the study period were included in the study. Babies who were diagnosed as MAS were designated as outcome. Data were analysed with bivariate analysis followed by multiple regression analysis.ResultsThe overall incidence of MAS was 2.0 per 1000 livebirths. Babies born at post‐term gestation (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05–5.55), nulliparity (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI: 1.20–4.28), instrumental delivery (AOR = 4.79; 95% CI: 2.52–9.10) and caesarean delivery (AOR = 3.67; 95% CI: 2.29–5.89) were significantly associated with MAS. Babies with MAS had a 10‐fold risk for pre‐discharge mortality (odds ratio = 9.87; 95% CI: 5.81–16.76).ConclusionsThe findings in this study are consistent with that reported in other studies. MAS has a high risk of neonatal mortality. Thus, monitoring during pregnancy and labour is necessary for early identification of high‐risk conditions associated with MAS. Strengthening of newborn care services is essential to curtail mortality.
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| 10. |
- Paudel, Prajwal, et al.
(author)
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Meconium aspiration syndrome: incidence, associated risk factors and outcome-evidence from a multicentric study in low-resource settings in Nepal.
- 2020
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In: Journal of paediatrics and child health. - : Wiley. - 1440-1754 .- 1034-4810. ; 56:4, s. 630-635
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The aim of this study was to identify the incidence, risk factors and outcome associated with meconium aspiration syndrome (MAS).An observational study was conducted in 12 public hospitals in Nepal from 1 July 2017 to 29 August 2018. All babies born within the study period were included in the study. Babies who were diagnosed as MAS were designated as outcome. Data were analysed with bivariate analysis followed by multiple regression analysis.The overall incidence of MAS was 2.0 per 1000 livebirths. Babies born at post-term gestation (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 2.41; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-5.55), nulliparity (AOR = 2.26; 95% CI: 1.20-4.28), instrumental delivery (AOR = 4.79; 95% CI: 2.52-9.10) and caesarean delivery (AOR = 3.67; 95% CI: 2.29-5.89) were significantly associated with MAS. Babies with MAS had a 10-fold risk for pre-discharge mortality (odds ratio = 9.87; 95% CI: 5.81-16.76).The findings in this study are consistent with that reported in other studies. MAS has a high risk of neonatal mortality. Thus, monitoring during pregnancy and labour is necessary for early identification of high-risk conditions associated with MAS. Strengthening of newborn care services is essential to curtail mortality.
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