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- Hageman, S., et al.
(author)
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SCORE2 risk prediction algorithms: new models to estimate 10-year risk of cardiovascular disease in Europe
- 2021
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In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:25, s. 2439-2454
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims The aim of this study was to develop, validate, and illustrate an updated prediction model (SCORE2) to estimate 10-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in individuals without previous CVD or diabetes aged 40-69 years in Europe. Methods and results We derived risk prediction models using individual-participant data from 45 cohorts in 13 countries (677 684 individuals, 30 121 CVD events). We used sex-specific and competing risk-adjusted models, including age, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, and total- and HDL-cholesterol. We defined four risk regions in Europe according to country-specific CVD mortality, recalibrating models to each region using expected incidences and risk factor distributions. Region-specific incidence was estimated using CVD mortality and incidence data on 10 776 466 individuals. For external validation, we analysed data from 25 additional cohorts in 15 European countries (1 133 181 individuals, 43 492 CVD events). After applying the derived risk prediction models to external validation cohorts, C-indices ranged from 0.67 (0.65-0.68) to 0.81 (0.76-0.86). Predicted CVD risk varied several-fold across European regions. For example, the estimated 10-year CVD risk for a 50-year-old smoker, with a systolic blood pressure of 140 mmHg, total cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/L, and HDL-cholesterol of 1.3 mmol/L, ranged from 5.9% for men in low- risk countries to 14.0% for men in very high-risk countries, and from 4.2% for women in low-risk countries to 13.7% for women in very high-risk countries. Conclusion SCORE2-a new algorithm derived, calibrated, and validated to predict 10-year risk of first-onset CVD in European populations-enhances the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CVD across Europe.
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- Steinacker, J. M., et al.
(author)
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Global Alliance for the Promotion of Physical Activity: the Hamburg Declaration
- 2023
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In: Bmj Open Sport & Exercise Medicine. ; 9:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Non-communicable diseases (NCDs), including coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, type 2 diabetes, dementia, depression and cancers, are on the rise worldwide and are often associated with a lack of physical activity (PA). Globally, the levels of PA among individuals are below WHO recommendations. A lack of PA can increase morbidity and mortality, worsen the quality of life and increase the economic burden on individuals and society. In response to this trend, numerous organisations came together under one umbrella in Hamburg, Germany, in April 2021 and signed the 'Hamburg Declaration'. This represented an international commitment to take all necessary actions to increase PA and improve the health of individuals to entire communities. Individuals and organisations are working together as the 'Global Alliance for the Promotion of Physical Activity' to drive long-term individual and population-wide behaviour change by collaborating with all stakeholders in the community: active hospitals, physical activity specialists, community services and healthcare providers, all achieving sustainable health goals for their patients/clients. The 'Hamburg Declaration' calls on national and international policymakers to take concrete action to promote daily PA and exercise at a population level and in healthcare settings.
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