| 1. |
- Baccini, M., et al.
(author)
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Impact of heat on mortality in 15 european cities : attributable deaths under different weather scenarios
- 2011
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In: Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 0143-005X .- 1470-2738. ; 65:1, s. 64-70
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: High ambient summer temperatures have been shown to influence daily mortality in cities across Europe. Quantification of the population mortality burden attributable to heat is crucial to the development of adaptive approaches. The impact of summer heat on mortality for 15 European cities during the 1990s was evaluated, under hypothetical temperature scenarios warmer and cooler than the mean and under future scenarios derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES).Methods: A Monte Carlo approach was used to estimate the number of deaths attributable to heat for each city. These estimates rely on the results of a Bayesian random-effects meta-analysis that combines city-specific heat-mortality functions.Results: The number of heat-attributable deaths per summer ranged from 0 in Dublin to 423 in Paris. The mean attributable fraction of deaths was around 2%. The highest impact was in three Mediterranean cities (Barcelona, Rome and Valencia) and in two continental cities (Paris and Budapest). The largest impact was on persons over 75 years; however, in some cities, important proportions of heat-attributable deaths were also found for younger adults. Heat-attributable deaths markedly increased under warming scenarios. The impact under SRES scenarios was slightly lower or comparable to the impact during the observed hottest year.Conclusions: Current high summer ambient temperatures have an important impact on European population health. This impact is expected to increase in the future, according to the projected increase of mean ambient temperatures and frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves.
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| 2. |
- Analitis, A, et al.
(author)
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Effects of cold weather on mortality : results from 15 European cities within the PHEWE project.
- 2008
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In: American journal of epidemiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1476-6256 .- 0002-9262. ; 168:12, s. 1397-408
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Weather-related health effects have attracted renewed interest because of the observed and predicted climate change. The authors studied the short-term effects of cold weather on mortality in 15 European cities. The effects of minimum apparent temperature on cause- and age-specific daily mortality were assessed for the cold season (October-March) by using data from 1990-2000. For city-specific analysis, the authors used Poisson regression and distributed lag models, controlling for potential confounders. Meta-regression models summarized the results and explored heterogeneity. A 1 degrees C decrease in temperature was associated with a 1.35% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.53) increase in the daily number of total natural deaths and a 1.72% (95% CI: 1.44, 2.01), 3.30% (95% CI: 2.61, 3.99), and 1.25% (95% CI: 0.77, 1.73) increase in cardiovascular, respiratory, and cerebrovascular deaths, respectively. The increase was greater for the older age groups. The cold effect was found to be greater in warmer (southern) cities and persisted up to 23 days, with no evidence of mortality displacement. Cold-related mortality is an important public health problem across Europe. It should not be underestimated by public health authorities because of the recent focus on heat-wave episodes.
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| 3. |
- Michelozzi, Paola, et al.
(author)
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High temperature and hospitalizations for cardiovascular and respiratory causes in 12 European cities.
- 2009
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In: American journal of respiratory and critical care medicine. - 1535-4970. ; 179:5, s. 383-9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- RATIONALE: Episode analyses of heat waves have documented a comparatively higher impact on mortality than on morbidity (hospital admissions) in European cities. The evidence from daily time series studies is scarce and inconsistent. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the impact of high environmental temperatures on hospital admissions during April to September in 12 European cities participating in the Assessment and Prevention of Acute Health Effects of Weather Conditions in Europe (PHEWE) project. METHODS: For each city, time series analysis was used to model the relationship between maximum apparent temperature (lag 0-3 days) and daily hospital admissions for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, and respiratory causes by age (all ages, 65-74 age group, and 75+ age group), and the city-specific estimates were pooled for two geographical groupings of cities. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: For respiratory admissions, there was a positive association that was heterogeneous between cities. For a 1 degrees C increase in maximum apparent temperature above a threshold, respiratory admissions increased by +4.5% (95% confidence interval, 1.9-7.3) and +3.1% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-5.5) in the 75+ age group in Mediterranean and North-Continental cities, respectively. In contrast, the association between temperature and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular admissions tended to be negative and did not reach statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: High temperatures have a specific impact on respiratory admissions, particularly in the elderly population, but the underlying mechanisms are poorly understood. Why high temperature increases cardiovascular mortality but not cardiovascular admissions is also unclear. The impact of extreme heat events on respiratory admissions is expected to increase in European cities as a result of global warming and progressive population aging.
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