| 1. |
- Ball, Frank, et al.
(author)
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Seven challenges for metapopulation models of epidemics, including households models
- 2015
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In: Epidemics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1755-4365 .- 1878-0067. ; 10, s. 63-67
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper considers metapopulation models in the general sense, i.e. where the population is partitioned into sub-populations (groups, patches,...), irrespective of the biological interpretation they have, e.g. spatially segregated large sub-populations, small households or hosts themselves modelled as populations of pathogens. This framework has traditionally provided an attractive approach to incorporating more realistic contact structure into epidemic models, since it often preserves analytic tractability (in stochastic as well as deterministic models) but also captures the most salient structural inhomogeneity in contact patterns in many applied contexts. Despite the progress that has been made in both the theory and application of such metapopulation models, we present here several major challenges that remain for future work, focusing on models that, in contrast to agent-based ones, are amenable to mathematical analysis. The challenges range from clarifying the usefulness of systems of weakly-coupled large sub-populations in modelling the spread of specific diseases to developing a theory for endemic models with household structure. They include also developing inferential methods for data on the emerging phase of epidemics, extending metapopulation models to more complex forms of human social structure, developing metapopulation models to reflect spatial population structure, developing computationally efficient methods for calculating key epidemiological model quantities, and integrating within- and between-host dynamics in models.
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| 2. |
- Bralower, Timothy, et al.
(author)
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Origin of a global carbonate layer deposited in the aftermath of the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary impact
- 2020
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In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - Amsterdam : Elsevier. - 0012-821X .- 1385-013X. ; 548
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Microcrystalline calcite (micrite) dominates the sedimentary record of the aftermath of the Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) impact at 31 sites globally, with records ranging from the deep ocean to the Chicxulub impact crater, over intervals ranging from a few centimeters to more than seventeen meters. This micrite-rich layer provides important information about the chemistry and biology of the oceans after the impact. Detailed high-resolution scanning electron microscopy demonstrates that the layer contains abundant calcite crystals in the micron size range with a variety of forms. Crystals are often constructed of delicate, oriented agglomerates of sub-micrometer mesocrystals indicative of rapid precipitation. We compare the form of crystals with natural and experimental calcite to shed light on their origin. Close to the crater, a significant part of the micrite may derive from the initial backreaction of CaO vaporized during impact. In more distal sites, simple interlocking rhombohedral crystals resemble calcite precipitated from solution. Globally, we found unique calcite crystals associated with fossilized extracellular materials that strikingly resemble calcite precipitated by various types of bacteria in natural and laboratory settings. The micrite-rich layer contains abundant bacterial and eukaryotic algal biomarkers and most likely represents global microbial blooms initiated within millennia of the K–Pg mass extinction. Cyanobacteria and non-haptophyte microalgae likely proliferated as dominant primary producers in cold immediate post-impact environments. As surface-water saturation state rose over the following millennia due to the loss of eukaryotic carbonate producers and continuing river input of alkalinity, “whitings” induced by cyanobacteria replaced calcareous nannoplankton as major carbonate producers. We postulate that the blooms grew in supersaturated surface waters as evidenced by crystals that resemble calcite precipitates from solution. The microbial biomass may have served as a food source enabling survival of a portion of the marine biota, ultimately including life on the deep seafloor. Although the dominance of cyanobacterial and algal photosynthesis would have weakened the biological pump, it still would have removed sufficient nutrients from surface waters thus conditioning the ocean for the recovery of biota at highertrophic levels.
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| 3. |
- Britton, Tom, et al.
(author)
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Five challenges for stochastic epidemic models involving global transmission
- 2015
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In: Epidemics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1755-4365 .- 1878-0067. ; 10, s. 54-57
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The most basic stochastic epidemic models are those involving global transmission, meaning that infection rates depend only on the type and state of the individuals involved, and not on their location in the population. Simple as they are, there are still several open problems for such models. For example, when will such an epidemic go extinct and with what probability (questions depending on the population being fixed, changing or growing)? How can a model be defined explaining the sometimes observed scenario of frequent mid-sized epidemic outbreaks? How can evolution of the infectious agent transmission rates be modelled and fitted to data in a robust way?
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- House, J, et al.
(author)
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Climate and air quality
- 2006
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In: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005 - Current State and Trends. Findings of the Condition and Trends Working Group (Ecosystems and Human Well-being). ; 1, s. 350-390
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
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| 6. |
- Janson, Svante, 1955-, et al.
(author)
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Near-critical SIR epidemic on a random graph with given degrees
- 2017
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In: Journal of Mathematical Biology. - : SPRINGER HEIDELBERG. - 0303-6812 .- 1432-1416. ; 74:4, s. 843-886
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Emergence of new diseases and elimination of existing diseases is a key public health issue. In mathematical models of epidemics, such phenomena involve the process of infections and recoveries passing through a critical threshold where the basic reproductive ratio is 1. In this paper, we study near-critical behaviour in the context of a susceptible-infective-recovered epidemic on a random (multi)graph on n vertices with a given degree sequence. We concentrate on the regime just above the threshold for the emergence of a large epidemic, where the basic reproductive ratio is , with tending to infinity slowly as the population size, n, tends to infinity. We determine the probability that a large epidemic occurs, and the size of a large epidemic. Our results require basic regularity conditions on the degree sequences, and the assumption that the third moment of the degree of a random susceptible vertex stays uniformly bounded as . As a corollary, we determine the probability and size of a large near-critical epidemic on a standard binomial random graph in the 'sparse' regime, where the average degree is constant. As a further consequence of our method, we obtain an improved result on the size of the giant component in a random graph with given degrees just above the critical window, proving a conjecture by Janson and Luczak.
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| 7. |
- McNeill, Lisa C., et al.
(author)
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Understanding Himalayan erosion and the significance of the Nicobar Fan
- 2017
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In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-821X .- 1385-013X. ; 475, s. 134-142
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A holistic view of the Bengal-Nicobar Fan system requires sampling the full sedimentary section of the Nicobar Fan, which was achieved for the first time by International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 362 west of North Sumatra. We identified a distinct rise in sediment accumulation rate (SAR) beginning similar to 9.5 Ma and reaching 250-350 m/Myr in the 9.5-2 Ma interval, which equal or far exceed rates on the Bengal Fan at similar latitudes. This marked rise in SAR and a constant Himalayan-derived provenance necessitates a major restructuring of sediment routing in the Bengal-Nicobar submarine fan. This coincides with the inversion of the Eastern Himalayan Shillong Plateau and encroachment of the west-propagating Indo-Burmese wedge, which reduced continental accommodation space and increased sediment supply directly to the fan. Our results challenge a commonly held view that changes in sediment flux seen in the Bengal-Nicobar submarine fan were caused by discrete tectonic or climatic events acting on the Himalayan-Tibetan Plateau. Instead, an interplay of tectonic and climatic processes caused the fan system to develop by punctuated changes rather than gradual progradation.
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| 8. |
- Pellis, Lorenzo, et al.
(author)
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Eight challenges for network epidemic models
- 2015
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In: Epidemics. - : Elsevier BV. - 1755-4365 .- 1878-0067. ; 10, s. 58-62
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity) have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.
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