| 1. |
- Dimberg, Peter H., 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Predicting median monthly chlorophyll-a concentrations
- 2013
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In: Limnologica. - : Elsevier. - 0075-9511 .- 1873-5851. ; 43:3, s. 169-176
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) is a plant pigment which is used in many environmental monitoring programs as a water quality indicator for lakes. However, monthly Chl-a data are often lacking in many monitored lakes as measurements are concentrated to certain periods of the year. This study investigates two methods of how monthly Chl-a medians can be predicted (i) new monthly regression models from median summer total phosphorus concentrations and latitude, (ii) and with monthly constants added to regression models from the literature. Data from 308 lakes were used and the trophic status of the lakes ranged from oligotrophic to hypertrophic, they were located from northern Sweden (Europe) to southern Florida (North America). These models may be useful for understanding the general Chl-a seasonality in lakes and for managing lakes in which Chl-a measurements are not made over the whole year.
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| 2. |
- Dimberg, Peter H., 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Probabilities of monthly median chlorophyll-a concentrations in subarctic, temperate and subtropical lakes
- 2013
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In: Environmental Modelling & Software. - : Elsevier. - 1364-8152 .- 1873-6726. ; 41, s. 199-209
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High concentrations of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) during summer are by definition a common problem in eutrophicated lakes. Several models have been designed to predict chl-a concentrations but are unable to estimate the probability of predicted concentrations or concentration spans during subsequent months. Two different methods were developed to compute the probabilities of obtaining a certain chl-a concentration. One method is built on discrete Markov chains and the other method on a direct relationship between median chl-a concentrations from two months. Lake managers may use these methods to detect and counteract the risk of high chl-a concentrations and algal blooms during coming months. Both methods were evaluated and applied along different scenarios to detect the probability to exceed chl-a concentration in different coming months. The procedure of computing probabilities is strictly based on general statistics which means that neither method is constrained for chl-a but can also be used for other variables. A user-friendly software application was developed to facilitate and extend the use of these two methods.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Hytteborn, Julia K., 1976-, et al.
(author)
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Patterns and predictability in the intra-annual organic carbon variability across the boreal and hemiboreal landscape
- 2015
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 520, s. 260-269
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Factors affecting total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 215 watercourses across Sweden were investigated using parameter parsimonious regression approaches to explain spatial and temporal variabilities of the TOC water quality responses. We systematically quantified the effects of discharge, seasonality, and long-term trend as factors controlling intra-annual (among year) and inter-annual (within year) variabilities of TOC by evaluating the spatial variability in model coefficients and catchment characteristics (e.g. land cover, retention time, soil type).Catchment area (0.18–47,000 km2) and land cover types (forests, agriculture and alpine terrain) are typical for the boreal and hemiboreal zones across Fennoscandia. Watercourses had at least 6 years of monthly water quality observations between 1990 and 2010. Statistically significant models (p < 0.05) describing variation of TOC in streamflow were identified in 209 of 215 watercourses with a mean Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency index of 0.44. Increasing long-term trends were observed in 149 (70%) of the watercourses, and intra-annual variation in TOC far exceeded inter-annual variation. The average influences of the discharge and seasonality terms on intra-annual variations in daily TOC concentration were 1.4 and 1.3 mg l− 1 (13 and 12% of the mean annual TOC), respectively. The average increase in TOC was 0.17 mg l− 1 year− 1 (1.6% year− 1).Multivariate regression with over 90 different catchment characteristics explained 21% of the spatial variation in the linear trend coefficient, less than 20% of the variation in the discharge coefficient and 73% of the spatial variation in mean TOC. Specific discharge, water residence time, the variance of daily precipitation, and lake area, explained 45% of the spatial variation in the amplitude of the TOC seasonality.Because the main drivers of temporal variability in TOC are seasonality and discharge, first-order estimates of the influences of climatic variability and change on TOC concentration should be predictable if the studied catchments continue to respond similarly.
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| 6. |
- Håkanson, Lars, 1943-, et al.
(author)
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A new general approach to quantify nitrogen fixation exemplified for the Baltic Proper
- 2009
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In: The Open Marine Biology Journal. - : Bentham. - 1874-4508. ; 3, s. 36-48
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This work uses empirical data from the HELCOM database and a new empirically-based model to predict the concentration of cyanobacteria in the Baltic Proper. The aim has been to estimate nitrogen fixation. The inherent variabilities/patchiness in the variables regulating nitrogen fixation are great. This means that different approaches may provide complementary information so that several relatively uncertain estimates may together provide less uncertainty in the estimate for nitrogen fixation in a given system. We show that there is marked variability in nitrogen fixation among different years (a factor of 20 between the year 2001 with the smallest value and 2005 with the highest value of about 900 kt/yr of N-fixation). The mean value for the period from 1997 to 2005 was 190 kt/yr. TN/TP based on median monthly data has been higher than the Redfield ratio of 7.2 since 1994. 6.5% of all individual data (n = 3001) from the surface-water layer (44 m) in the Baltic Proper for samples with temperatures higher than 15°C (when risks of getting cyanobacteria blooms are favoured) have TN/TP lower than 7.2. The mean TN/TP is 20 for surface-water sites with temperatures higher than 15°C, indicating that the average trophic conditions in the Baltic Proper are likely more limited by phosphorus than nitrogen. Nitrogen fixation is an important contributor to the nitrogen concentration and we give overall budgets for nitrogen and phosphorus in the Baltic Proper, including nutrient data from land uplift, which is the most important contributor for nutrients and often neglected in discussions about sources of nutrients to the Baltic Sea.
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| 7. |
- Håkanson, Lars, et al.
(author)
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On the issue of limiting nutrient and predictions of cyanobacteria in aquatic systems
- 2007
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 379:1, s. 89-108
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study aims at bridging the gap between freshwater and marine eutrophication studies by presenting (1) a cross-system analysis of the relationship between chlorophyll and the total nitrogen (TN) to total phosphorus (TP) ratio (2) a general model to predict concentrations of cyanobacteria from data on TP, the TN/TP ratio, salinity and temperature, and (3) a general trophic level classification for aquatic systems based on chlorophyll classes (for oligo-, meso-, eu- and hypertrophic systems). The data compiled in this study concerns more than 500 lakes and coastal areas covering a very wide domain in terms of nutrient concentrations and salinity. There was no simple relationship between the TN/TP ratio and empirical chlorophyll concentrations or concentrations of cyanobacteria. Variations in TP rather than TN generally seem to be more important to predict variations among systems in chlorophyll-a and cyanobacteria. Different “bioavailable” forms of the nutrients (DIN, DIP, phosphate, nitrate, etc.) have been shown to have very high coefficients of variation (CV), which means that many samples are needed to obtain reliable empirical data which are necessary in models aiming for high predictive power and practical usefulness.
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| 8. |
- Temnerud, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Evaluating common drivers for color, iron and organic carbon in Swedish watercourses
- 2014
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In: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:SI, s. 30-44
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The recent browning (increase in color) of surface waters across much of the northern hemisphere has important implications for light climate, ecosystem functioning, and drinking water treatability. Using log-linear regressions and long-term (6-21 years) data from 112 Swedish watercourses, we identified temporal and spatial patterns in browning-related parameters [iron, absorbance, and total organic carbon (TOC)]. Flow variability and lakes in the catchment were major influences on all parameters. Co-variation between seasonal, discharge-related, and trend effects on iron, TOC, and absorbance were dependent on pH, landscape position, catchment size, latitude, and dominant land cover. Large agriculture-dominated catchments had significantly larger trends in iron, TOC, and water color than small forest catchments. Our results suggest that while similarities exist, no single mechanism can explain the observed browning but show that multiple mechanisms related to land cover, climate, and acidification history are responsible for the ongoing browning of surface waters.
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| 9. |
- Teutschbein, Claudia, 1985-, et al.
(author)
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Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden : An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects
- 2017
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In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 0886-6236 .- 1944-9224. ; 31:11, s. 1674-1701
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth’s ecosystems continues toattract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land towater, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentiallycountervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt toresolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climatewith help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurementtime series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years withdaily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrologicalsimulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverineinorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogenexport from Sweden (2061–2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0–29%), based on theensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal patternof inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and morewinter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogenloading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputsneed to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved.
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