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- Ioannou, Ioanna, et al.
(författare)
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IMPROVER D2.1 Methodology for identifying hazard scenarios to assess the resilience of critical infrastructure
- 2015
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Critical infrastructure is exposed to a wide range of hazards, capable to disrupt its operations in various degrees. This raises the question of which hazard scenario an operator shall use to assess the resilience of their critical infrastructure asset. Various techniques aiming to prioritize the various risks are commonly used in the literature. This study proposed an 8-step methodology, which aims to rank the risks of pre-defined hazard scenarios by eliciting the opinions of the stakeholders through a structured expert elicitation technique termed paired comparison. The novelty of the proposed technique is its ability to quantify the degree of disagreement regarding the ranking order of the scenarios and thus to capture the uncertainty associated with these risks. The proposed methodology has been applied to four living labs, namely: the Oresund region, the port of Oslo, the A31 Highway in France and the potable water network in Barreiro. The applications aims to rank scenarios of natural and operational hazards according to their disaster- and emergency-risk. Despite the small number of participants, the results provide an excellent basis for further discussion regarding the most likely disaster or emergency risk scenarios. For most living labs, the ranking of the hazards using paired comparison was successful in identifying the scenarios associated with the highest risk. Overall, ranking the natural hazards according to their disaster- or emergency-risk has been associated with a higher degree of consensus than the ranking of the operational hazards reflecting on the higher complexity and perhaps the limited understanding of the later. In more detail, snow storm is the hazard with the highest disaster risk for the A31 Highway. Similarly, earthquake is the hazard with the highest disaster risk for the water network in Barreiro. Three meteorological hazards ranked the highest for both the likelihood to occur and to cause disaster to the Øresund region. By contrast, the ranking of the hazards for the port of Oslo identified several scenarios with similar likelihood to cause disaster, which ranked very different in their likelihood to occur in the next 5 years. This raises question as to whether the most of least likely to occur scenarios is most suitable which can be answered in collaboration with the stakeholders. With regard to the operational hazards, the contamination of the water in the water source or the distribution network due to an accident at the high-risk industrial SEVECO operations has been identified as the single scenario with the highest risk of disaster for the water network in Barreiro. Three events including a multiple day strike and two accidents in the wet bulk terminal have been identified as having the highest disaster risk for the port of Oslo. By contrast, no operational hazards can be identified as having the highest risk of occurrence for the A31 highway and the Øresund region
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| 3. |
- Melkunaite, Laura
(författare)
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IMPROVER Deliverable 1.1 International Survey
- 2016
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- In recent years, the concept of resilience started to dominate strategic, operational as well as political domains of modern societies. Living in highly interconnected environment, where layers of infrastructures, people and economic interests interact creating both opportunities and vulnerabilities, different countries around the world turned towards resilience practices to reduce vulnerability of their critical infrastructures and societies. However, how can one implement resilience concepts without a comprehensive understanding of the concept itself? Focusing on the concept and practice of critical infrastructure resilience, this report provides a comprehensive overview of the existing scientific literature regarding the concept of resilience in general. It discusses the development of the concept of resilience and its application in societal, economic, ecological, organisational and critical infrastructure domains. The report provides an extensive discussion on the definition of resilience concepts, as well as information on scientific endeavours to implement and measure concepts of resilience. The report also contains detailed information on the definitions and implementation of the concepts of resilience in different continents, namely Europe, Africa, Asia, Oceania, North America and South America. Focusing on the concept of critical infrastructure resilience, it provides an overview of the existing official concepts of resilience, implementation tools, and general practices aimed at increasing organisational, societal, economic and technical resilience in different countries. To collect all the information, the IMPROVER consortium performed an extensive literature review on the use of resilience concepts. We also held a workshop with the associate partners, and conducted a set of personal interviews with critical infrastructure operators and resilience experts around the Europe. While conducting a number of case studies in different continents, we analysed existing region and state-level documents, and reports.
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