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- Bågenholm, Andreas, 1969, et al.
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A New Road to Electoral Success. Incentive structures, elite strategies and the emergence of new political parties in the Baltic States
- 2009
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In: Workshop om nya politiska partiers framgång i Central- och Östeuropa i Göteborg den 15-16 juni 2009..
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This paper deals with immediate and large scale success of new political parties. Between 2002 and 2004, newly formed parties won three consecutive parliamentary elections in the Baltic States (New Era in Latvia in 2002, Res Publica in Estonia in 2003 and Labour Party in Lithuania in 2004). The aim of the paper is to explain why this happened. We argue that these parties do not fit into the categories of new parties that are established in the literature. Therefore, we focus the comparison on two issues: the incentive structures (socio-economics, level of corruption, political scandal, institutional framework) and the electoral strategies undertaken by the party leaderships. The latter analyses are primarily based on elite interviews.
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- Bågenholm, Andreas, 1969, et al.
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Why are the post-communist party systems not stabilizing?
- 2013
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In: ECPR Joint Sessions in Mainz, Workshop 31: Party System Dynamics. New Tools for the Study of Party System Change and Party Transformation, March 12-16, 2013..
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The party system development in Central and Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin wall has put focus on the question what it takes for party systems in newly established democracies to stabilize. Some scholars have argued that party system stabilization will follow more or less automatically as time elapse and democracy consolidates, whereas others have pointed to a number of factors which sustain the level of instability. In this paper we analyze party system stability in the ten post-communist EU-member states between 1990 and 2012. The study is based on data from the 68 parliamentary elections held since the first multiparty elections in 1990. We use three indicators to capture the extent of party system stability: electoral volatility, support for new and splinter parties and the number of parties entering and exiting parliament. The first aim of the paper is to compare the level of party system stability temporally as well as between the countries. The results show that the level of instability is consistently high in the region in almost all countries and that there are few indications of stabilization. Estonia and Poland are the only exceptions to this trend. The second aim is to explain why stabilization does not seem to occur in the region. We argue that the main reason is because of what we call a logic of (asymmetric) path dependency, which implies that previous instability breeds continued instability. Both economic performance and level of corruption becomes insignificant when controlling for the level of electoral volatility in the previous as well as the mean level of volatility in the two previous elections. If these results hold in further tests, we can expect party system instability to prevail in most of the CEE countries for the foreseeable future, regardless of the governments’ performances.
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