| 1. |
- Fatahi, Rasoul, et al.
(author)
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Modeling operational cement rotary kiln variables with explainable artificial intelligence methods–a “conscious lab” development
- 2023
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In: Particulate Science and Technology. - : Taylor & Francis. - 0272-6351 .- 1548-0046. ; 41:5, s. 715-724
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Digitalizing cement production plants to improve operation parameters’ control might reduce energy consumption and increase process sustainabilities. Cement production plants are one of the extremest CO2 emissions, and the rotary kiln is a cement plant’s most energy-consuming and energy-wasting unit. Thus, enhancing its operation assessments adsorb attention. Since many factors would affect the clinker production quality and rotary kiln efficiency, controlling those variables is beyond operator capabilities. Constructing a conscious-lab “CL” (developing an explainable artificial intelligence “EAI” model based on the industrial operating dataset) can potentially tackle those critical issues, reduce laboratory costs, save time, improve process maintenance and help for better training operators. As a novel approach, this investigation examined extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) coupled with SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) “SHAP-XGBoost” for the modeling and prediction of the rotary kiln factors (feed rate and induced draft fan current) based on over 3,000 records collected from the Ilam cement plant. SHAP illustrated the relationships between each record and variables with the rotary kiln factors, demonstrated their correlation magnitude, and ranked them based on their importance. XGBoost accurately (R-square 0.96) could predict the rotary kiln factors where results showed higher exactness than typical EAI models.
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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Khosravi, Fatemeh, et al.
(author)
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A bilayer GO/nanofibrous biocomposite coating to enhance 316L stainless steel corrosion performance
- 2019
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In: Materials Research Express. - : Institute of Physics (IOP). - 2053-1591. ; 6:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A bilayer coating has been synthesized to be coated on the 316L stainless steel (SS) for bone implant application. The first layer consisted of graphene oxide (GO) which was coated via the electrophoretic deposition method. The second layer including Poly (ε-caprolactone) (PCL)/Gelatin-forsterite nanofibers was electrospun on the first layer. The morphology of the bare 316L SS, GO-coated, electrospun nanofibers, and nanofibers-coated samples were investigated using scanning electron microscopy (SEM). The electrospun nanofibers were also characterized by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) and confirmed the presence of PCL, gelatin, and forsterite in the nanocomposite coating. Furthermore, the morphological investigation of the nanofibers revealed that 80:20 weight of PCL to gelatin did not show any beads, making them for coating on the GO coatings. In addition, the corrosion behavior of the coated samples was assessed by potentiodynamic polarization and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The samples coated with GO and GO/PCL-gelatin-forsterite 1% showed the best corrosion resistance in comparison with other samples. Consequently, the prepared bilayer biocomposite coating including 1 wt% forsterite nanoparticles can be a promising candidate for orthopedic implants.
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| 5. |
- Khosravi, Fatemeh, et al.
(author)
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Development of a Highly Proliferated Bilayer Coating on 316L Stainless Steel Implants
- 2020
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In: Polymers. - : MDPI. - 2073-4360. ; 12:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this research, a bilayer coating has been applied on the surface of 316 L stainless steel (316LSS) to provide highly proliferated metallic implants for bone regeneration. The first layer was prepared using electrophoretic deposition of graphene oxide (GO), while the top layer was coated utilizing electrospinning of poly (ε-caprolactone) (PCL)/gelatin (Ge)/forsterite solutions. The morphology, porosity, wettability, biodegradability, bioactivity, cell attachment and cell viability of the prepared coatings were evaluated. The Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FESEM) results revealed the formation of uniform, continuous, and bead-free nanofibers. The Energy Dispersive X-ray (EDS) results confirmed well-distributed forsterite nanoparticles in the structure of the top coating. The porosity of the electrospun nanofibers was found to be above 70%. The water contact angle measurements indicated an improvement in the wettability of the coating by increasing the amount of nanoparticles. Furthermore, the electrospun nanofibers containing 1 and 3 wt.% of forsterite nanoparticles showed significant bioactivity after soaking in the simulated body fluid (SBF) solution for 21 days. In addition, to investigate the in vitro analysis, the MG-63 cells were cultured on the PCL/Ge/forsterite and GO-PCL/Ge/forsterite coatings. The results confirmed an excellent cell adhesion along with considerable cell growth and proliferation. It should be also noted that the existence of the forsterite nanoparticles and the GO layer substantially enhanced the cell proliferation of the coatings.
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| 6. |
- Rezvani Ghomi, Erfan, et al.
(author)
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The Flame Retardancy of Polyethylene Composites : From Fundamental Concepts to Nanocomposites
- 2020
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In: Molecules. - : MDPI. - 1431-5157 .- 1420-3049. ; 25:21
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Polyethylene (PE) is one the most used plastics worldwide for a wide range of applications due to its good mechanical and chemical resistance, low density, cost efficiency, ease of processability, non-reactivity, low toxicity, good electric insulation, and good functionality. However, its high flammability and rapid flame spread pose dangers for certain applications. Therefore, different flame-retardant (FR) additives are incorporated into PE to increase its flame retardancy. In this review article, research papers from the past 10 years on the flame retardancy of PE systems are comprehensively reviewed and classified based on the additive sources. The FR additives are classified in well-known FR families, including phosphorous, melamine, nitrogen, inorganic hydroxides, boron, and silicon. The mechanism of fire retardance in each family is pinpointed. In addition to the efficiency of each FR in increasing the flame retardancy, its impact on the mechanical properties of the PE system is also discussed. Most of the FRs can decrease the heat release rate (HRR) of the PE products and simultaneously maintains the mechanical properties in appropriate ratios. Based on the literature, inorganic hydroxide seems to be used more in PE systems compared to other families. Finally, the role of nanotechnology for more efficient FR-PE systems is discussed and recommendations are given on implementing strategies that could help incorporate flame retardancy in the circular economy model.
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| 7. |
- Rezvani Ghomi, Erfan, et al.
(author)
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The Life Cycle Assessment for Polylactic Acid (PLA) to Make It a Low-Carbon Material
- 2021
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In: Polymers. - : MDPI. - 2073-4360. ; 13:11
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The massive plastic production worldwide leads to a global concern for the pollution made by the plastic wastes and the environmental issues associated with them. One of the best solutions is replacing the fossil-based plastics with bioplastics. Bioplastics such as polylactic acid (PLA) are biodegradable materials with less greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. PLA is a biopolymer produced from natural resources with good mechanical and chemical properties, therefore, it is used widely in packaging, agriculture, and biomedical industries. PLA products mostly end up in landfills or composting. In this review paper, the existing life cycle assessments (LCA) for PLA were comprehensively reviewed and classified. According to the LCAs, the energy and materials used in the whole life cycle of PLA were reported. Finally, the GHG emissions of PLA in each stage of its life cycle, including feedstock acquisition and conversion, manufacturing of PLA products, the PLA applications, and the end of life (EoL) options, were described. The most energy-intensive stage in the life cycle of PLA is its conversion. By optimizing the conversion process of PLA, it is possible to make it a low-carbon material with less dependence on energy sources.
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