| 1. |
- Danielson, Mats, et al.
(författare)
-
A Multi-Stakeholder Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation in Jordan
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Group Decision and Negotiation in an Uncertain World. - Cham : Springer. - 9783319928746 - 9783319928739 ; , s. 190-202
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- We present the method used in an ongoing project in Jordan for a multi-stakeholder, multi-criteria problem of formulating a nationwide energy strategy for the country for the next decades. The Jordanian government has recognized the need for energy transition and the main goal of the energy strategy is to provide a reliable energy supply by increasing the share of local energy resources in the energy mix, while reducing dependency on imported fossil fuels, by diversifying energy resources, also including renewable energy sources, nuclear and shale oil, and by enhancing environmental protection. There were strong incentives for a collaborative approach, since the ways in which different stakeholder groups subjectively attach meanings to electricity generation technologies are recognized as important issues shaping the attainment of energy planning objectives. To understand the meaning of these constructs, we are using a multi-stakeholder multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach to elicit criteria weights and valuations.
|
|
| 2. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
-
A Participatory MCDA Approach to Energy Transition Policy Formation
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Multicriteria and Optimization Models for Risk, Reliability, and Maintenance Decision Analysis. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030896461 - 9783030896478 ; , s. 79-110
-
Bokkapitel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Energiomställningen mot en mer betydande andel av inhemskt genererade resurser kommer oundvikligen att leda till en samhällsomvandling, som kommer att påverka intressen hos befintliga och framväxande elproduktionsindustrier och andra intressenter. För att vara hållbar bör en sådan övergång också ta upp frågor om miljöskydd och bidrag till socioekonomisk utveckling. Detta kapitel bygger på antagandet att mänskliga faktorer spelar en viktig roll i energiomställningen. Det är nödvändigt att utveckla kompromisslösningar för att minska risken för att olikheter i åsikter om elproduktionstekniker som behövs för energiomställningen kommer att förvandlas till motstridiga åsikter. Dessa mänskliga faktorer inkluderar uppfattningar om olika risker kopplade till tekniskt utnyttjande, såväl som synpunkter på fördelar och effekter som genereras av olika teknologier. Vi använder en ny multi-stakeholder multi-kriterie-metod för att bedöma relevansen av Jordaniens elproduktionsteknik mot en uppsättning kriterier under osäkerhet, som återspeglar miljömässiga, sociala och ekonomiska komponenter i hållbar utveckling. Resultaten visar att diskursen i det jordanska samhället för närvarande domineras av ekonomisk rationalitet, såsom elkostnader, med stöd av oro för säkerheten under drift och underhåll av elproduktionskraftverk. Resultaten visar också den starka önskan från alla intressentgrupper att ha en möjlighet att engagera sig i beslutsfattande processer om energiomställning snarare än att enbart kompensera lokala samhällen för installation av elproduktion och överföringsteknik.
|
|
| 3. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
-
A risk-based decision framework for policy analysis of societal pandemic effects
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 11
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- I den här artikeln sammanfattar vi våra resultat från ett EU-stödt projekt för policyanalyser tillämpade på pandemier som Covid-19 (med potential att tillämpas även på andra liknande faror) samtidigt som vi överväger olika begränsningsnivåer och konsekvensuppsättningar under flera kriterier. Den är baserad på vår tidigare utveckling för att hantera oprecis information i riskträd och multikriteriehierarkier med hjälp av intervall och kvalitativa uppskattningar. Vi presenterar kort den teoretiska bakgrunden och visar hur den kan användas för systematiska policyanalyser. I vår modell använder vi beslutsträd och multikriteriehierarkier utökade med trosfördelningar för vikter, sannolikheter och värden samt kombinationsregler för att aggregera bakgrundsinformationen i en utökad förväntad värdemodell, med hänsyn till såväl kriterievikter som sannolikheter och utfall. värden. Vi använde det datorstödda verktyget DecideIT för den aggregerade beslutsanalysen under osäkerhet. Ramverket har tillämpats i tre länder: Botswana, Rumänien och Jordanien, och utvidgats för scenariobyggande under den tredje vågen av pandemin i Sverige, vilket bevisar dess genomförbarhet i realtidspolicyutformning för pandemibekämpande åtgärder. Detta arbete resulterade i en mer finmaskig modell för politiska beslut som är mycket mer anpassade till samhällets behov i framtiden, antingen om Covid-19-pandemin råder eller för nästa pandemi eller andra samhällsomfattande farliga nödsituationer.
|
|
| 4. |
- Danielson, Mats, 1959-, et al.
(författare)
-
Evidence-Based Methods for the Development of Computationally Supported Epidemic-Combating Policies
- 2022
-
Ingår i: New Trends in Intelligent Software Methodologies, Tools and Techniques. - : IOS Press. - 9781643683164 ; , s. 363-373
-
Konferensbidrag (refereegranskat)abstract
- I denna artikel föreslår vi en gruppbeslutsmetod inom en integrerad beräkningsram för beslutspolitik. Baserat på ett samskapande arbetsflöde, epidemiologiska uppskattningar och socioekonomiska faktorer, övervägs beslut i ett sammanhang med flera intressenter, flera kriterier för att framkalla attityder, uppfattningar och preferenser från relevanta intressentgrupper. Det fullständiga ramverket har tillämpats i Botswana, Rumänien och Jordanien för att utvärdera begränsningsåtgärder relaterade till covid-19-pandemin för att mobilisera bättre svarsstrategier för andra relevanta framtidsscenarier och potentiellt allvarligare pandemier och andra farliga händelser. Ramverket rekommenderades som bästa praxis i EU under European Open Science Cloud EOSC, Covid-19 Fast Track Funding.
|
|
| 5. |
- Ekenberg, Love, 1962-, et al.
(författare)
-
A Framework for COVID-19 Pandemic Intervention Modelling and Analysis for Policy Formation Support in Botswana
- 2023
-
Ingår i: The International Journal on Advances in ICT for Emerging Regions. - : Sri Lanka Journals Online (JOL). - 1800-4156 .- 2550-2794. ; 15:3, s. 46-59
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Syftet med denna forskning var att utveckla ett metodiskt ramverk som skulle kunna tillämpas för policybildning i situationer med en hög nivå av osäkerhet och heterogenitet av befintliga åsikter bland involverade intressenter om riskreducering och hantering såsom covid-19 pandemisk risk. I detta dokument presenterar vi ett sådant ramverk och dess tillämpning för beslutsfattande i Botswana för att mildra covid-19-pandemin. Syftet med den föreslagna modellen är dubbelt: för det första att förse beslutsfattare med tillförlitlig och användbar epidemiologisk modellering eftersom åtgärder för att begränsa spridningen av covid-19-viruset till en början till stor del baserades på olika epidemiologiska riskbedömningar. För det andra, med tanke på att vissa uppsättningar åtgärder som antagits i andra delar av världen successivt medför höga eller till och med mycket höga sociala och ekonomiska kostnader för de länder som antog dessa åtgärder, tillhandahöll vi en beslutsstödsmodell med flera kriterier som kunde användas för att att väga olika politiska tillvägagångssätt för att bekämpa virusspridningen med hänsyn till lokala konsekvensbedömningar inom en mängd olika samhällsområden. Vi beskriver hur utformningen av en nationell covid-19-strategi och policy i Botswana 2020 hjälptes till genom att använda IKT-beslutsstödsmodeller som en viktig informationskälla. Därefter presenterar vi simuleringsmodellen för virusspridning och dess resultat som är kopplade till en multikriteriebeslutsstödsmodell. Slutligen diskuterar vi hur ramverket kan vidareutvecklas för Botswanas behov för att optimera riskhanteringsalternativ vid hantering av covid-19 och andra pandemiscenarier. Det betydande forskningsbidraget är att flytta fram forskningsfronten när det gäller en metodik för att inkludera heterogenitet i åsikter och identifiering av kompromisslösningar i policyrelevanta diskurser under en hög grad av osäkerhet.
|
|
| 6. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
A Multi-Criteria Framework for Pandemic Response Measures
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Frontiers In Public Health. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-2565. ; 9
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In managing the COVID-19 pandemic, several compelling narratives seem to have played a significant role in the decision-making processes regarding which risk mitigation and management measures to implement. Many countries were to a large extent unprepared for such a situation, even though predictions about a significant probability for a pandemic to occur existed, and national governments of several countries often acted in an uncoordinated manner, which resulted in many inconsistencies in the disaster risk reduction processes. Limited evidence has also made room for strategic narratives meant to persuade the public of the chosen set of actions, even though the degree of uncertainty regarding the outcomes of these was high, further complicating the situation. In this article, we assume a normative standpoint regarding rhapsodic decision making and suggest an integrated framework for a more elaborated decision analysis under the ambiguity of how to contain the virus spread from a policy point of view, while considering epidemiologic estimations and socioeconomic factors in a multi-stakeholder-multi-criteria context based on a co-creative work process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, as well as preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups. The framework, applied in our paper on Romania for demonstrative purposes, is used for evaluating mitigation measures for catastrophic events such as the COVID-19 situation, to mobilize better response strategies for future scenarios related to pandemics and other hazardous events, as well as to structure the production and analysis of narratives on the current pandemic effects.
|
|
| 7. |
- Ekenberg, Love, et al.
(författare)
-
A Multicriteria Approach to Modelling Pandemic Response under Strong Uncertainty : A Case Study in Jordan
- 2022
-
Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 14:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, evidence-based policymaking and risk mitigation have been confronted with limited decision-making mechanisms under conditions of increased uncertainty. Such methods are particularly called for in contexts where reliable data to a large extent are missing and where the chosen policy would impact a variety of sectors. In this paper, we present an application of an integrated decision-making framework under ambiguity on how to contain the COVID-19 virus spread from a national policy point of view. The framework was applied in Jordan and considered both local epidemiologic and socioeconomic estimates in a multistakeholder multicriteria context. In particular, the cocreation process for eliciting attitudes, perceptions, and preferences amongst relevant stakeholder groups has often been missing from policy response to the pandemic, even though the containment measures' efficiency largely depends on their acceptance by the impacted groups. For this, there exist several methods attempting to elicit criteria weights, values, and probabilities ranging from direct rating and point allocation methods to more elaborated ones. To facilitate the elicitation, some of the approaches utilise elicitation methods whereby prospects are ranked using ordinal importance information, while others use cardinal information. Methods are sometimes assessed in case studies or more formally by utilising systematic simulations. Furthermore, the treatment of corresponding methods for the handling of the alternative's values has sometimes been neglected. We demonstrate in our paper an approach for cardinal ranking in policy decision making in combination with imprecise or incomplete information concerning probabilities, weights, and consequences or alternative values. The results of our cocreation process are aggregated in the evaluation of alternative mitigation measures for Jordan, showcasing how a multistakeholder multicriteria decision mechanism can be employed in current or future challenges of pandemic situations, to facilitate management and mitigation of similar crises in the future, in any region.
|
|
| 8. |
- Komendantova, Nadejda, et al.
(författare)
-
A value-driven approach to addressing misinformation in social media
- 2021
-
Ingår i: Humanities and Social Sciences Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-9992. ; 8:1
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Misinformation in social media is an actual and contested policy problem given its outreach and the variety of stakeholders involved. In particular, increased social media use makes the spread of misinformation almost universal. Here we demonstrate a framework for evaluating tools for detecting misinformation using a preference elicitation approach, as well as an integrated decision analytic process for evaluating desirable features of systems for combatting misinformation. The framework was tested in three countries (Austria, Greece, and Sweden) with three groups of stakeholders (policymakers, journalists, and citizens). Multi-criteria decision analysis was the methodological basis for the research. The results showed that participants prioritised information regarding the actors behind the distribution of misinformation and tracing the life cycle of misinformative posts. Another important criterion was whether someone intended to delude others, which shows a preference for trust, accountability, and quality in, for instance, journalism. Also, how misinformation travels is important. However, all criteria that involved active contributions to dealing with misinformation were ranked low in importance, which shows that participants may not have felt personally involved enough in the subject or situation. The results also show differences in preferences for tools that are influenced by cultural background and that might be considered in the further development of tools.
|
|
| 9. |
- Komendantova, Nadejda, et al.
(författare)
-
Are Energy Security Concerns Dominating Environmental Concerns? Evidence from Stakeholder Participation Processes on Energy Transition in Jordan
- 2018
-
Ingår i: Climate. - : MDPI AG. - 2225-1154. ; 6:4
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- To satisfy Jordan’s growing demand for electricity and to diversify its energy mix, the Jordanian government is considering a number of electricity-generation technologies that would allow for locally available resources to be used alongside imported energy. Energy policy in Jordan aims to address both climate change mitigation and energy security by increasing the share of low-carbon technologies and domestically available resources in the Jordanian electricity mix. Existing technological alternatives include the scaling up of renewable energy sources, such as solar and wind; the deployment of nuclear energy; and shale oil exploration. However, the views, perceptions, and opinions regarding these technologies—their benefits, risks, and costs—vary significantly among different social groups both inside and outside the country. Considering the large-scale policy intervention that would be needed to deploy these technologies, a compromise solution must be reached. This paper is based on the results of a four-year research project that included extensive stakeholder processes in Jordan, involving several social groups and the application of various methods of participatory governance research, such as multi-criteria decision-making. The results show the variety of opinions expressed and provide insights into each type of electricity-generation technology and its relevance for each stakeholder group. There is a strong prevalence of economic rationality in the results, given that electricity-system costs are prioritized by almost all stakeholder groups.
|
|
| 10. |
- Komendantova, Nadejda, et al.
(författare)
-
Energy for the Future : Evaluating different electricity-generation technologies against selected performance characteristics and stakeholder preferences: Insights from the case study in Jordan
- 2018
-
Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Currently, energy policy in Jordan is facing the challenge of having to cover the country’s electricity demand which is growing because of different factors, among them population growth, cooling of houses, desalination, large consumption centres and industry. The goal to provide reliable and affordable electricity includes diversification of electricity-generation sources from extensive reliance on fossil fuel imports to the generation of electricity from locally available resources, such as renewable energy sources but also nuclear energy and shale oil. Energy transition towards a more significant share of domestically generated resources will inevitably lead to a societal transformation in Jordan, which will affect interests of existing and emerging electricity-generation industries and other stakeholders. To be sustainable, such a transition should also address issues of environmental protection and its contribution to socio-economic development. Therefore, it is necessary to develop compromise solutions to mitigate the risk that differences in views about electricity-generation technologies needed for energy transition will turn into conflicting opinions. Also, energy transition should address not only national energy security targets, but it should also integrate interests of local communities in the vicinity of future electricity-generation and transmission infrastructure. This report is based on the assumption that human factors play an important role in energy transition. These human factors include perceptions of different risks connected with the use of certain technologies as well as views about benefits and impacts generated by different technologies. An innovative methodology was developed to address these views. This methodology allows us to assess the relevance of Jordan’s electricity-generation technologies, such as utility-scale photovoltaic (PV), concentrated solar power (CSP), onshore wind, utility-scale hydro-electric, bituminous coal, heavy fuel oil, shale oil and natural gas against a set of criteria, which reflect environmental, social and economic components of sustainable development. The results show that stakeholders prefer utility PV technology over all other technologies. The results also show that at the time of writing, the discourse in Jordanian society is dominated by economic rationality, such as electricity costs, supported by concerns about safety during operation and maintenance of electricity-generation power plans. The results also show a strong desire of all stakeholder groups for an opportunity to engage in decision-making processes on energy transition as the alternative of being simply compensated for the installation of electricity-generation and -transmission technologies does not appeal to local communities.
|
|
