| 1. |
- Pennells, Lisa, et al.
(author)
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Equalization of four cardiovascular risk algorithms after systematic recalibration : individual-participant meta-analysis of 86 prospective studies
- 2019
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In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 40:7, s. 621-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims: There is debate about the optimum algorithm for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk estimation. We conducted head-to-head comparisons of four algorithms recommended by primary prevention guidelines, before and after ‘recalibration’, a method that adapts risk algorithms to take account of differences in the risk characteristics of the populations being studied.Methods and results: Using individual-participant data on 360 737 participants without CVD at baseline in 86 prospective studies from 22 countries, we compared the Framingham risk score (FRS), Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), pooled cohort equations (PCE), and Reynolds risk score (RRS). We calculated measures of risk discrimination and calibration, and modelled clinical implications of initiating statin therapy in people judged to be at ‘high’ 10 year CVD risk. Original risk algorithms were recalibrated using the risk factor profile and CVD incidence of target populations. The four algorithms had similar risk discrimination. Before recalibration, FRS, SCORE, and PCE over-predicted CVD risk on average by 10%, 52%, and 41%, respectively, whereas RRS under-predicted by 10%. Original versions of algorithms classified 29–39% of individuals aged ≥40 years as high risk. By contrast, recalibration reduced this proportion to 22–24% for every algorithm. We estimated that to prevent one CVD event, it would be necessary to initiate statin therapy in 44–51 such individuals using original algorithms, in contrast to 37–39 individuals with recalibrated algorithms.Conclusion: Before recalibration, the clinical performance of four widely used CVD risk algorithms varied substantially. By contrast, simple recalibration nearly equalized their performance and improved modelled targeting of preventive action to clinical need.
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| 2. |
- Jung, Dooseok Escher, et al.
(author)
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Universal Upper End of the Stellar Initial Mass Function in the Young and Compact LEGUS Clusters
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 954:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate the variation in the upper end of the stellar initial mass function (uIMF) in 375 young and compact star clusters in five nearby galaxies within ∼5 Mpc. All the young stellar clusters (YSCs) in the sample have ages ≲ 4 Myr and masses above 500 M⊙, according to standard stellar models. The YSC catalogs were produced from Hubble Space Telescope images obtained as part of the Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey (LEGUS) Hubble treasury program. They are used here to test whether the uIMF is universal or changes as a function of the cluster's stellar mass. We perform this test by measuring the Hα luminosity of the star clusters as a proxy for their ionizing photon rate, and charting its trend as a function of cluster mass. Large cluster numbers allow us to mitigate the stochastic sampling of the uIMF. The advantage of our approach relative to previous similar attempts is the use of cluster catalogs that have been selected independently of the presence of Hα emission, thus removing a potential sample bias. We find that the uIMF, as traced by the Hα emission, shows no dependence on cluster mass, suggesting that the maximum stellar mass that can be produced in star clusters is universal, in agreement with previous findings.
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| 3. |
- Ashworth, G., et al.
(author)
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Theoretical predictions for IMF diagnostics in UV spectroscopy of star clusters
- 2018
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 480:3, s. 3091-3104
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We explore the possibility of using UV spectroscopy in combination with broad-band photometry as diagnostic tools for understanding the shape of the initial mass function (IMF) in unresolved stellar populations. Building on our previous work, we extend the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (SLUG) code to include a high-resolution UV spectral synthesizer and equivalent width calculation capabilities. We first gain a qualitative understanding of how UV spectral features behave as the parameters that define a star cluster in SLUG (mass, age, extinction, and IMF slope alpha(3)) are changed. We then exploit Bayesian inference techniques to recover the alpha(3) values for clusters simulated with SLUG, using mock observations of these clusters comprised of broad-band photometry and equivalent width measurements of a selection of UV spectral features. We find some improvement when compared to attempts using broad-band photometry alone (with the interquartile range of the alpha(3) posterior PDF shrinking by similar or equal to 32%), although we still do not yet fully break the known degeneracy between the cluster mass and alpha(3). Finally, we make predictions about how effective real observations will be by quantifying our ability to constrain alpha(3) as a function of limiting equivalent width. We find that observations sensitive to a modest equivalent width of similar or equal to 9 angstrom are sufficient to improve the recovery of the IMF slope parameter by similar or equal to 32% (interquartile range of posterior PDF median residuals), moving to similar or equal to 39% when we include all the significant spectral features in the wavelength range 900 - 3000 angstrom.
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| 4. |
- Calzetti, Daniela, et al.
(author)
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Dust-buried Compact Sources in the Dwarf Galaxy NGC 4449
- 2023
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - : American Astronomical Society. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 946:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Multiwavelength images from the Hubble Space Telescope covering the wavelength range 0.27–1.6 μm show that the central area of the nearby dwarf galaxy NGC 4449 contains several tens of compact sources that are emitting in the hydrogen recombination line Paβ (1.2818 μm) but are only marginally detected in Hα (0.6563 μm) and undetected at wavelengths λ ≤ 0.55 μm. An analysis of the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) of these sources indicates that they are likely relatively young stellar clusters heavily attenuated by dust. The selection function used to identify the sources prevents meaningful statistical analyses of their age, mass, and dust extinction distributions. However, these cluster candidates have ages ∼5–6 Myr and AV > 6 mag, according to their SED fits, and are extremely compact, with typical deconvolved radii of 1 pc. The dusty clusters are located at the periphery of the dark clouds within the galaxy and appear to be partially embedded. Density and pressure considerations indicate that the H ii regions surrounding these clusters may be stalled, and that pre-supernova (pre-SN) feedback has not been able to clear the clusters of their natal cocoons. These findings are in potential tension with existing models that regulate star formation with pre-SN feedback, since pre-SN feedback acts on short timescales, ≲4 Myr, for a standard stellar initial mass function. The existence of a population of dusty stellar clusters with ages >4 Myr, if confirmed by future observations, paints a more complex picture for the role of stellar feedback in controlling star formation.
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| 5. |
- Finn, Molly K., et al.
(author)
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ALMA-LEGUS. I. The Influence of Galaxy Morphology on Molecular Cloud Properties
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 964:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a comparative study of the molecular gas in two galaxies from the Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey (LEGUS) sample: barred spiral NGC 1313 and flocculent spiral NGC 7793. These two galaxies have similar masses, metallicities, and star formation rates, but NGC 1313 is forming significantly more massive star clusters than NGC 7793, especially young massive clusters (<10 Myr, >104M⊙). Using Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) CO(2–1) observations of the two galaxies with the same sensitivity and resolution (13 pc), we directly compare the molecular gas in these two similar galaxies to determine the physical conditions responsible for their large disparity in cluster formation. By fitting size–line width relations for the clouds in each galaxy, we find that NGC 1313 has a higher intercept than NGC 7793, implying that its clouds have higher kinetic energies at a given size scale. NGC 1313 also has more clouds near virial equilibrium than NGC 7793, which may be connected to its higher rate of massive cluster formation. However, these virially bound clouds do not show a stronger correlation with young clusters than with the general cloud population. We find surprisingly small differences between the distributions of molecular cloud populations in the two galaxies, though the largest of those differences is that NGC 1313 has higher surface densities and lower freefall times.
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| 6. |
- Finn, Molly K., et al.
(author)
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ALMA-LEGUS. II. The Influence of Subgalactic Environments on Molecular Cloud Properties
- 2024
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 964:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We compare the molecular cloud properties in subgalactic regions of two galaxies, barred spiral NGC 1313, which is forming many massive clusters, and flocculent spiral NGC 7793, which is forming significantly fewer massive clusters despite having a similar star formation rate to NGC 1313. We find that there are larger variations in cloud properties between different regions within each galaxy than there are between the galaxies on a global scale, especially for NGC 1313. There are higher masses, line widths, pressures, and virial parameters in the arms of NGC 1313 and the center of NGC 7793 than in the interarm and outer regions of the galaxies. The massive cluster formation of NGC 1313 may be driven by its greater variation in environment, allowing more clouds with the necessary conditions to emerge, although no one parameter seems primarily responsible for the difference in star formation. Meanwhile NGC 7793 has clouds that are as massive and have as much kinetic energy as the clouds in the arms of NGC 1313, but have densities and pressures more similar to those in the interarm regions and so are less inclined to collapse and form stars. The cloud properties in NGC 1313 and NGC 7793 suggest that spiral arms, bars, interarm regions, and flocculent spirals each represent distinct environments with regard to molecular cloud populations. We see surprisingly little difference in surface density between the regions, suggesting that the differences in surface densities frequently seen between arm and interarm regions in lower-resolution studies are indicative of the sparsity of molecular clouds, rather than differences in their true surface density.
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| 7. |
- Krumholz, Mark R., et al.
(author)
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SLUG IV : a novel forward-modelling method to derive the demographics of star clusters
- 2019
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 482:3, s. 3550-3566
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We describe a novel method for determining the demographics of a population of star clusters, for example distributions of cluster mass and age, from unresolved photometry. This method has a number of desirable properties: it fully exploits all the information available in a data set without any binning, correctly accounts for both measurement error and sample incompleteness, naturally handles heterogenous data (e.g. fields that have been imaged with different sets of filters or to different depths), marginalizes over uncertain extinctions, and returns the full posterior distributions of the parameters describing star cluster demographics. We demonstrate the method using mock star cluster catalogues and show that our method is robust and accurate, and that it can recover the demographics of star cluster populations significantly better than traditional fitting methods. For realistic sample sizes, our method is sufficiently powerful that its accuracy is ultimately limited by the accuracy of the underlying physical models for stellar evolution and interstellar dust, rather than by statistical uncertainties. Our method is implemented as part of the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (SLUG) stellar populations code, and is freely available.
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| 8. |
- Krumholz, Mark R., et al.
(author)
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STAR CLUSTER PROPERTIES IN TWO LEGUS GALAXIES COMPUTED WITH STOCHASTIC STELLAR POPULATION SYNTHESIS MODELS
- 2015
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In: Astrophysical Journal. - 0004-637X .- 1538-4357. ; 812:2
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.
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| 9. |
- Menon, Shyam H., et al.
(author)
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The dependence of the hierarchical distribution of star clusters on galactic environment
- 2021
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 507:4, s. 5542-5566
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We use the angular two-point correlation function (TPCF) to investigate the hierarchical distribution of young star clusters in 12 local (3–18 Mpc) star-forming galaxies using star cluster catalogs obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) as part of the Treasury Program Legacy ExtraGalactic UV Survey. The sample spans a range of different morphological types, allowing us to infer how the physical properties of the galaxy affect the spatial distribution of the clusters. We also prepare a range of physically motivated toy models to compare with and interpret the observed features in the TPCFs. We find that, conforming to earlier studies, young clusters (T≲10Myr) have power-law TPCFs that are characteristic of fractal distributions with a fractal dimension D2, and this scale-free nature extends out to a maximum scale lcorr beyond which the distribution becomes Poissonian. However, lcorr, and D2 vary significantly across the sample, and are correlated with a number of host galaxy physical properties, suggesting that there are physical differences in the underlying star cluster distributions. We also find that hierarchical structuring weakens with age, evidenced by flatter TPCFs for older clusters (T≳10Myr), that eventually converges to the residual correlation expected from a completely random large-scale radial distribution of clusters in the galaxy in ∼100Myr. Our study demonstrates that the hierarchical distribution of star clusters evolves with age, and is strongly dependent on the properties of the host galaxy environment.
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| 10. |
- Orozco-Duarte, Rogelio, et al.
(author)
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Synthetic photometry of OB star clusters with stochastically sampled IMFs : analysis of models and HST observations
- 2022
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In: Monthly notices of the Royal Astronomical Society. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0035-8711 .- 1365-2966. ; 509:1, s. 522-549
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We present a pilot library of synthetic NUV, U, B, V, and I photometry of star clusters with stochastically sampled IMFs and ionized gas for initial masses, Mi = 103, 104, and 105 M⊙; t = 1, 3, 4, and 8 Myr; Z = 0.014 and Z = 0.002; and log(US) = −2 and −3. We compare the library with predictions from deterministic models and observations of isolated low-mass (<104 M⊙) star clusters with co-spatial compact H II regions. The clusters are located in NGC 7793, one of the nearest galaxies observed as part of the HST LEGUS and Hα-LEGUS surveys. (1) For model magnitudes that only account for the stars: (a) the residual |deterministic mag - median stochastic mag| can be ≥0.5 mag, even for Mi = 105 M⊙; and (b) the largest spread in stochastic magnitudes occurs when Wolf–Rayet stars are present. (2) For Mi = 105 M⊙: (a) the median stochastic mag with gas can be >1.0 mag more luminous than the median stochastic magnitude without gas; and (b) nebular emission lines can contribute with >50 per cent and >30 per cent to the total emission in the V and I bands, respectively. (3) Age-dating OB-star clusters via deterministic tracks in the U-B versus V-I plane is highly uncertain at Z = 0.014 for Mi ∼ 103 M⊙ and Z = 0.002 for Mi ∼ 103–105 M⊙. (4) For low-mass clusters, the V-band extinction derived with stochastic models significantly depends on the value of log(US). (5) The youngest clusters tend to have higher extinction. (6) The majority of clusters have multi-peaked age PDFs. (7) Finally, we discuss the importance of characterizing the true variance in the number of stars per mass bin in nature.
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