| 1. |
- Alexander, Peter, et al.
(author)
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Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections
- 2017
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013. ; 23:2, s. 767-781
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding uncertainties in land cover projections is critical to investigating land-based climate mitigation policies, assessing the potential of climate adaptation strategies and quantifying the impacts of land cover change on the climate system. Here, we identify and quantify uncertainties in global and European land cover projections over a diverse range of model types and scenarios, extending the analysis beyond the agro-economic models included in previous comparisons. The results from 75 simulations over 18 models are analysed and show a large range in land cover area projections, with the highest variability occurring in future cropland areas. We demonstrate systematic differences in land cover areas associated with the characteristics of the modelling approach, which is at least as great as the differences attributed to the scenario variations. The results lead us to conclude that a higher degree of uncertainty exists in land use projections than currently included in climate or earth system projections. To account for land use uncertainty, it is recommended to use a diverse set of models and approaches when assessing the potential impacts of land cover change on future climate. Additionally, further work is needed to better understand the assumptions driving land use model results and reveal the causes of uncertainty in more depth, to help reduce model uncertainty and improve the projections of land cover.
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| 2. |
- Costa, Guilherme, et al.
(author)
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Asymmetric division coordinates collective cell migration in angiogenesis
- 2016
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In: Nature Cell Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1465-7392 .- 1476-4679. ; 18:12, s. 1292-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The asymmetric division of stem or progenitor cells generates daughters with distinct fates and regulates cell diversity during tissue morphogenesis. However, roles for asymmetric division in other more dynamic morphogenetic processes, such as cell migration, have not previously been described. Here we combine zebrafish in vivo experimental and computational approaches to reveal that heterogeneity introduced by asymmetric division generates multicellular polarity that drives coordinated collective cell migration in angiogenesis. We find that asymmetric positioning of the mitotic spindle during endothelial tip cell division generates daughters of distinct size with discrete 'tip' or 'stalk' thresholds of pro-migratory Vegfr signalling. Consequently, post-mitotic Vegfr asymmetry drives Dll4/Notch-independent self-organization of daughters into leading tip or trailing stalk cells, and disruption of asymmetry randomizes daughter tip/stalk selection. Thus, asymmetric division seamlessly integrates cell proliferation with collective migration, and, as such, may facilitate growth of other collectively migrating tissues during development, regeneration and cancer invasion.
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| 4. |
- Hudson, Lawrence N, et al.
(author)
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The database of the PREDICTS (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems) project
- 2017
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In: Ecology and Evolution. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 2045-7758. ; 7:1, s. 145-188
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The PREDICTS project-Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems (www.predicts.org.uk)-has collated from published studies a large, reasonably representative database of comparable samples of biodiversity from multiple sites that differ in the nature or intensity of human impacts relating to land use. We have used this evidence base to develop global and regional statistical models of how local biodiversity responds to these measures. We describe and make freely available this 2016 release of the database, containing more than 3.2 million records sampled at over 26,000 locations and representing over 47,000 species. We outline how the database can help in answering a range of questions in ecology and conservation biology. To our knowledge, this is the largest and most geographically and taxonomically representative database of spatial comparisons of biodiversity that has been collated to date; it will be useful to researchers and international efforts wishing to model and understand the global status of biodiversity.
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| 7. |
- Linero, Humberto, 1992, et al.
(author)
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The International Transport Energy Modeling (iTEM) Open Data & Harmonized Transport Database
- 2020
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Other publication (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This dataset and documentation contains detailed information of the iTEM Open Database, a harmonized transport data set of historical values, 1970 - 2018. It aims to create transparency through two key features: Open-Data: Assembling a comprehensive collection of publicly-available transportation data Open-Code: All code and documentation will be publicly accessible and open for modification and extension. https://github.com/transportenergy The iTEM Open Database is comprised of individual datasets collected from public sources. Each dataset is downloaded, cleaned, and harmonised to the common region and technology definitions defined by the iTEM consortium https://transportenergy.org. For each dataset, we describe the name of the dataset, the web link to the original source, the web link to the cleaning script (in python), variables, and explain the data cleaning steps (which explains the data cleaning script in plain English).
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| 8. |
- Prestele, Reinhard, et al.
(author)
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Hotspots of uncertainty in land-use and land-cover change projections : a global-scale model comparison
- 2016
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 22:12, s. 3967-3983
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Model-based global projections of future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change are frequently used in environmental assessments to study the impact of LULC change on environmental services and to provide decision support for policy. These projections are characterized by a high uncertainty in terms of quantity and allocation of projected changes, which can severely impact the results of environmental assessments. In this study, we identify hotspots of uncertainty, based on 43 simulations from 11 global-scale LULC change models representing a wide range of assumptions of future biophysical and socioeconomic conditions. We attribute components of uncertainty to input data, model structure, scenario storyline and a residual term, based on a regression analysis and analysis of variance. From this diverse set of models and scenarios, we find that the uncertainty varies, depending on the region and the LULC type under consideration. Hotspots of uncertainty appear mainly at the edges of globally important biomes (e.g., boreal and tropical forests). Our results indicate that an important source of uncertainty in forest and pasture areas originates from different input data applied in the models. Cropland, in contrast, is more consistent among the starting conditions, while variation in the projections gradually increases over time due to diverse scenario assumptions and different modeling approaches. Comparisons at the grid cell level indicate that disagreement is mainly related to LULC type definitions and the individual model allocation schemes. We conclude that improving the quality and consistency of observational data utilized in the modeling process and improving the allocation mechanisms of LULC change models remain important challenges. Current LULC representation in environmental assessments might miss the uncertainty arising from the diversity of LULC change modeling approaches, and many studies ignore the uncertainty in LULC projections in assessments of LULC change impacts on climate, water resources or biodiversity.
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| 9. |
- Yeh, Sonia, 1973, et al.
(author)
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Improving future travel demand projections: a pathway with an open science interdisciplinary approach
- 2022
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In: Progress in Energy. - : IOP Publishing. - 2516-1083. ; 4:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Transport accounts for 24% of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels. Governments face challenges in developing feasible and equitable mitigation strategies to reduce energy consumption and manage the transition to low-carbon transport systems. To meet the local and global transport emission reduction targets, policymakers need more realistic/sophisticated future projections of transport demand to better understand the speed and depth of the actions required to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. In this paper, we argue that the lack of access to high-quality data on the current and historical travel demand and interdisciplinary research hinders transport planning and sustainable transitions toward low-carbon transport futures. We call for a greater interdisciplinary collaboration agenda across open data, data science, behaviour modelling, and policy analysis. These advancemets can reduce some of the major uncertainties and contribute to evidence-based solutions toward improving the sustainability performance of future transport systems. The paper also points to some needed efforts and directions to provide robust insights to policymakers. We provide examples of how these efforts could benefit from the International Transport Energy Modeling Open Data project and open science interdisciplinary collaborations.
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