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- Grande, Giulia, et al.
(author)
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Development and internal validation of a prognostic model for 15-year risk of Alzheimer dementia in primary care patients
- 2022
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In: Neurological Sciences. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1590-1874 .- 1590-3478. ; 43:10, s. 5899-5908
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The exploitation of routinely collected clinical health information is warranted to optimize the case detection and diagnostic workout of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We aimed to derive an AD prediction score based on routinely collected primary care data.Methods We built a cohort selecting 199,978 primary care patients 60 +part of the Health Search Database between January 2002 and 2009, followed up until 2019 to detect incident AD cases. The cohort was randomly divided into a derivation and validation sub-cohort. To identify AD and non-AD cases, we applied a clinical algorithm that involved two clinicians. According to a nested case-control design, AD cases were matched with up to 10 controls based on age, sex, calendar period, and follow-up duration. Using the derivation sub-cohort, 32 potential AD predictors (sociodemographic, clinical, drug-related, etc.) were tested in a logistic regression and selected to build a prediction model. The predictive performance of this model was tested on the validation sub-cohort by mean of explained variation, calibration, and discrimination measurements.Results We identified 3223 AD cases. The presence of memory disorders, hallucinations, anxiety, and depression and the use of NSAIDs were associated with future AD. The combination of the predictors allowed the production of a predictive score that showed an explained variation (pseudo-R-2) for AD occurrence of 13.4%, good calibration parameters, and an area under the curve of 0.73 (95% CI: 0.71-0.75). In accordance with this model, 7% of patients presented with a high-risk score for developing AD over 15 years.Conclusion An automated risk score for AD based on routinely collected clinical data is a promising tool for the early case detection and timely management of patients by the general practitioners.
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| 2. |
- Lapi, Francesco, et al.
(author)
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A Cohort Study on Influenza Vaccine and All-Cause Mortality in Older Adults : Methodological Concerns and Public Health Implications
- 2022
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In: Drugs & Aging. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1170-229X .- 1179-1969. ; 39:8, s. 645-656
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Introduction In 2020, the restrictions adopted to control the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic led to an unprecedented reduction in influenza-related burden. As such, the reduced chance to characterize the circulating virus strains might have increased the risk of vaccine mismatch for the forthcoming winter seasons. The role of an effective influenza vaccination campaign might therefore assume even more value, especially for frail and multimorbid older individuals. Methodological concerns on confounding by indication are always debated in vaccine effectiveness studies and it might be instrumental to give a pragmatic message on an individual's responsibility to receive the influenza vaccine. We therefore investigated the role of specific confounders to explain the association between influenza vaccine and mortality among older adults.Methods Using a primary care database, we formed a cohort of patients aged 65 years or older who were actively registered with their general practitioner (GP) at the beginning of each of nine influenza seasons through to the 2018/2019 season. The study index date was the related seasons' starting date. Exposure to the influenza vaccine was operationally defined in the 2 months preceding the index date up to 2 weeks before the exit date. Cox regression models were estimated to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) of death between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients in a time-dependent fashion. The potential confounders sequentially entered the model based on their increasing effect size observed in univariate analyses.Results Over the 10 years under study, the influenza vaccine showed a significant protective effect in terms of mortality, reaching 13% reduction (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.95) in the 2018/2019 influenza season. When we estimated the multivariate model by sequentially adding the potential confounders, there was an inversion of HR (below the unit) that was significantly explained by the covariates coding for a prior history of lower respiratory tract infections and the presence of the pneumococcal vaccine. Conclusion In the current pandemic scenario, we cannot divert attention to proper use of face masks, social distancing, and hand hygiene, which are important measures to prevent influenza and other respiratory viral infections. Nonetheless, their effectiveness might be negligible without acceptable coverage for influenza vaccine, especially in older patients with a history of lower respiratory tract infections, which appears to be the main source of confounding by indication.
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| 3. |
- Lapi, Francesco, et al.
(author)
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Epidemiology of invasive meningococcal disease and its sequelae : a population-based study in Italian primary care, 2000-2019
- 2023
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In: Family Practice. - 0263-2136 .- 1460-2229.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is a severe infectious disease. Although effective preventive and therapeutical strategies are available, the fatality rate remains high in the general population, with an occurrence of meningococcal-related severe sequelae involving 10-20% of survivors. Given the crucial role of general practitioners in recognizing and preventing IMD and its related sequelae, we aim to assess the burden of these conditions in primary care. Methods Using an Italian primary care database, the incidence rate of IMD was calculated in the period 2000-2019 by capturing the first diagnosis registered during follow-up. As far as meningococcal-related sequelae are concerned, we identified and clinically evaluated each potential sequela during the first 3 months, from 3 to 12 months, and up to 36 months. Results Among 508 patients diagnosed with IMD, 403 (incidence rate: 0.24 per 10,000 person-years) comprised those diagnosed with IMD in patients aged 15 years or older. We ascertained 104 sequelae (20.4%); 76% of them occurred in those aged 25 or older; 42, 27, and 35 were assessed as short-, medium-, or long-term sequelae, respectively. Overall, 4.7% of IMD patients reported physical sequelae, while 12.2% and 5.7% of patients reported neurological and psychological sequelae, respectively. Conclusion Our study showed that a substantial proportion of IMD and related sequelae occur in individuals aged over 25, with a non-negligible burden for healthcare systems. As for the paediatric population, effective communication on the relevance of meningococcal vaccination in adults should be proficiently fostered.
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| 4. |
- Vetrano, Davide L., et al.
(author)
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Patterns of oral corticosteroids use in primary care patients with severe asthma
- 2020
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In: Respiratory Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0954-6111 .- 1532-3064. ; 166
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: To assess the pattern of use of oral corticosteroids (OC) in primary care patients with severe asthma.Methods: Data derived from the Health Search Database (HSD) gathering information on 700 Italian general practitioners. A cohort of severe asthma patients was identified between 2013 and 2017 and followed-up for one year. The association between candidate predictors and the incident escalation to OC was tested through a multivariate Cox regression model.Results: Among patients with asthma (N = 55,075), 284 were diagnosed with severe asthma. Among them, the proportion of OC users decreased from 82.2% in 2013 to 75.3% in 2017. For what concerns the determinants of OC prescriptions, among 284 patients being defined at baseline (2013-2016) as those suffering from severe asthma, 216 (76.1%) were first-ever prescribed with OC at least once during one year of follow-up. The presence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (HR 1.37; 95% CI 1.02-1.85), osteoarthritis (HR 1.54; 95% CI 1.12-2.12) and moderate asthma exacerbations (HR 1.72; 95% CI 1-02-2.93) was significantly associated with the outcome.Conclusions: The optimization of asthma treatment and the management of comorbidities may be potential leverages to reduce the inappropriate use of OC in patients with severe asthma.
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