| 1. |
- Mauritsen, Thorsten, et al.
(author)
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Developments in the MPI-M Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) and Its Response to Increasing CO2
- 2019
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In: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. - 1942-2466. ; 11:4, s. 998-1038
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new release of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Earth System Model version 1.2 (MPI-ESM1.2) is presented. The development focused on correcting errors in and improving the physical processes representation, as well as improving the computational performance, versatility, and overall user friendliness. In addition to new radiation and aerosol parameterizations of the atmosphere, several relatively large, but partly compensating, coding errors in the model's cloud, convection, and turbulence parameterizations were corrected. The representation of land processes was refined by introducing a multilayer soil hydrology scheme, extending the land biogeochemistry to include the nitrogen cycle, replacing the soil and litter decomposition model and improving the representation of wildfires. The ocean biogeochemistry now represents cyanobacteria prognostically in order to capture the response of nitrogen fixation to changing climate conditions and further includes improved detritus settling and numerous other refinements. As something new, in addition to limiting drift and minimizing certain biases, the instrumental record warming was explicitly taken into account during the tuning process. To this end, a very high climate sensitivity of around 7 K caused by low-level clouds in the tropics as found in an intermediate model version was addressed, as it was not deemed possible to match observed warming otherwise. As a result, the model has a climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 over preindustrial conditions of 2.77 K, maintaining the previously identified highly nonlinear global mean response to increasing CO2 forcing, which nonetheless can be represented by a simple two-layer model.
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| 2. |
- Hátún, Hjálmar, et al.
(author)
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An inflated subpolar gyre blows life toward the northeastern Atlantic
- 2016
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In: Progress in Oceanography. - 0079-6611. ; 147, s. 49-66
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Deep convection in the Labrador and Irminger Seas inflates the cold and low-saline subpolar gyre, which is a rich nutrient and zooplankton source for the surrounding warmer waters of subtropical origin. The zooplankton abundances on the south Iceland shelf show characteristic sub-decadal variability, which closely reflect the oceanic abundances of the ecologically most important zooplankton species – Calanus finmarchicus. Much higher abundances of this species are observed during years when the winter mixed layer depths (MLD) in the Labrador-Irminger Sea, and over the Reykjanes Ridge are deep. Furthermore, a tight relationship is identified between on-shelf zooplankton abundances and lateral shifts of the biologically productive subarctic front southwest of Iceland. Thus, we suggest that northeastward expansion of the subpolar gyre results in biologically productive periods in the waters southwest of Iceland – both oceanic and on the shelf. In addition to local atmospheric forcing, we find that the MLD and frontal position are also impacted by remote heat losses and convection in the Labrador Sea, through northward advection of unstable mode waters. The sub-decadal oceanic and on-shelf biological production peaks are possibly predictable by half a year (local winter convection to subsequent summer production), and the advective time-lag from the Labrador Sea might induce an even longer predictability horizon (up to 1.5 years).
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| 3. |
- Hoshino, Ayuko, et al.
(author)
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Extracellular Vesicle and Particle Biomarkers Define Multiple Human Cancers
- 2020
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In: Cell. - : CELL PRESS. - 0092-8674 .- 1097-4172. ; 182:4, s. 1044-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is an unmet clinical need for improved tissue and liquid biopsy tools for cancer detection. We investigated the proteomic profile of extracellular vesicles and particles (EVPs) in 426 human samples from tissue explants (TEs), plasma, and other bodily fluids. Among traditional exosome markers, CD9, HSPA8, ALIX, and HSP90AB1 represent pan-EVP markers, while ACTB, MSN, and RAP1B are novel pan-EVP markers. To confirm that EVPs are ideal diagnostic tools, we analyzed proteomes of TE- (n =151) and plasma-derived (n =120) EVPs. Comparison of TE EVPs identified proteins (e.g., VCAN, TNC, and THBS2) that distinguish tumors from normal tissues with 90% sensitivity/94% specificity. Machine-learning classification of plasma-derived EVP cargo, including immunoglobulins, revealed 95% sensitivity/90% specificity in detecting cancer Finally, we defined a panel of tumor-type-specific EVP proteins in TEs and plasma, which can classify tumors of unknown primary origin. Thus, EVP proteins can serve as reliable biomarkers for cancer detection and determining cancer type.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Wilcke, Renate Anna Irma, et al.
(author)
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The extremely warm summer of 2018 in Sweden - set in a historical context
- 2020
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In: Earth System Dynamics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 2190-4979 .- 2190-4987. ; 11:4, s. 1107-1121
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Two long-lasting high-pressure systems in summer 2018 led to persisting heatwaves over Scandinavia and other parts of Europe and an extended summer period with devastating impacts on agriculture, infrastructure, and human life. We use five climate model ensembles and the unique 263-year-long Stockholm temperature time series along with a composite 150-year-long time series for the whole of Sweden to set the latest heatwave in the summer of 2018 into historical perspective. With 263 years of data, we are able to grasp the pre-industrial period well and see a clear upward trend in temperature as well as upward trends in five heatwave indicators. With five climate model ensembles providing 20 580 simulated summers representing the latest 70 years, we analyse the likelihood of such a heat event and how unusual the 2018 Swedish summer actually was. We find that conditions such as those observed in summer 2018 are present in all climate model ensembles. An exception is the monthly mean temperature for May for which 2018 was warmer than any member in one of the five climate model ensembles. However, even if the ensembles generally contain individual years like 2018, the comparison shows that such conditions are rare. For the indices assessed here, anomalies such as those observed in 2018 occur in a maximum of 5 % of the ensemble members, sometimes even in less than 1 %. For all of the indices evaluated, we find that the probability of a summer such as that in 2018 has increased from relatively low values in the pre-industrial era (1861-1890, one ensemble) and the recent past (1951-1980, all five ensembles) to higher values in the most recent decades (1989-2018). An implication of this is that anthropogenic climate change has strongly increased the probability of a warm summer, such as the one observed 2018, occurring in Sweden. Despite this, we still find such summers in the pre-industrial climate in our simulations, albeit with a lower probability.
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