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- Bascom, Karen E., et al.
(author)
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Derivation and validation of the CREST model for very early prediction of circulatory etiology death in patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction after cardiac arrest
- 2018
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In: Circulation. - 0009-7322. ; 137:3, s. 273-282
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: No practical tool quantitates the risk of circulatory-etiology death (CED) immediately after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation in patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We developed and validated a prediction model to rapidly determine that risk and facilitate triage to individualized treatment pathways. METHODS: With the use of INTCAR (International Cardiac Arrest Registry), an 87-question data set representing 44 centers in the United States and Europe, patients were classified as having had CED or a combined end point of neurological-etiology death or survival. Demographics and clinical factors were modeled in a derivation cohort, and backward stepwise logistic regression was used to identify factors independently associated with CED. We demonstrated model performance using area under the curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test in the derivation and validation cohorts, and assigned a simplified point-scoring system. RESULTS: Among 638 patients in the derivation cohort, 121 (18.9%) had CED. The final model included preexisting coronary artery disease (odds ratio [OR], 2.86; confidence interval [CI], 1.83-4.49; P≤0.001), nonshockable rhythm (OR, 1.75; CI, 1.10-2.77; P=0.017), initial ejection fraction<30% (OR, 2.11; CI, 1.32-3.37; P=0.002), shock at presentation (OR, 2.27; CI, 1.42-3.62; P<0.001), and ischemic time >25 minutes (OR, 1.42; CI, 0.90-2.23; P=0.13). The derivation model area under the curve was 0.73, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.47. Outcomes were similar in the 318-patient validation cohort (area under the curve 0.68, Hosmer-Lemeshow test P=0.41). When assigned a point for each associated factor in the derivation model, the average predicted versus observed probability of CED with a CREST score (coronary artery disease, initial heart rhythm, low ejection fraction, shock at the time of admission, and ischemic time >25 minutes) of 0 to 5 was: 7.1% versus 10.2%, 9.5% versus 11%, 22.5% versus 19.6%, 32.4% versus 29.6%, 38.5% versus 30%, and 55.7% versus 50%. CONCLUSIONS: The CREST model stratified patients immediately after resuscitation according to risk of a circulatory-etiology death. The tool may allow for estimation of circulatory risk and improve the triage of survivors of cardiac arrest without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction at the point of care.
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- Harhash, Ahmed A., et al.
(author)
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Risk Stratification Among Survivors of Cardiac Arrest Considered for Coronary Angiography
- 2021
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In: Journal of the American College of Cardiology. - : Elsevier. - 0735-1097 .- 1558-3597. ; 77:4, s. 360-371
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BackgroundThe American College of Cardiology Interventional Council published consensus-based recommendations to help identify resuscitated cardiac arrest patients with unfavorable clinical features in whom invasive procedures are unlikely to improve survival.ObjectivesThis study sought to identify how many unfavorable features are required before prognosis is significantly worsened and which features are most impactful in predicting prognosis.MethodsUsing the INTCAR (International Cardiac Arrest Registry), the impact of each proposed “unfavorable feature” on survival to hospital discharge was individually analyzed. Logistic regression was performed to assess the association of such unfavorable features with poor outcomes.ResultsSeven unfavorable features (of 10 total) were captured in 2,508 patients successfully resuscitated after cardiac arrest (ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation and noncardiac etiology were exclusion criteria in our registry). Chronic kidney disease was used in lieu of end-stage renal disease. In total, 39% survived to hospital discharge. The odds ratio (OR) of survival to hospital discharge for each unfavorable feature was as follows: age >85 years OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.61), time-to-ROSC >30 min OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.39), nonshockable rhythm OR: 0.39 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.54), no bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation OR: 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.64), lactate >7 mmol/l OR: 0.50 (95% CI: 0.40 to 0.63), unwitnessed arrest OR: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.78), pH <7.2 OR: 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.98), and chronic kidney disease OR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.70 to 1.33). The presence of any 3 or more unfavorable features predicted <40% survival. Presence of the 3 strongest risk factors (age >85 years, time-to-ROSC >30 min, and non-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation) together or ≥6 unfavorable features predicted a ≤10% chance of survival to discharge.ConclusionsPatients successfully resuscitated from cardiac arrest with 6 or more unfavorable features have a poor long-term prognosis. Delaying or even forgoing invasive procedures in such patients is reasonable.
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- May, Teresa, et al.
(author)
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Coronary Angiography and Intervention in Women Resuscitated From Sudden Cardiac Death
- 2020
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - 2047-9980. ; 9:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Coronary artery disease is the primary etiology for sudden cardiac arrest in adults, but potential differences in the incidence and utility of invasive coronary testing between resuscitated men and women have not been extensively evaluated. Our aim was to characterize angiographic similarities and differences between men and women after cardiac arrest. Methods and Results Data from the International Cardiac Arrest Registry-Cardiology database included patients resuscitated from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest of presumed cardiac origin, admitted to 7 academic cardiology/resuscitation centers during 2006 to 2017. Demographics, clinical factors, and angiographic findings of subjects were evaluated in relationship to sex and multivariable logistic regression models created to predict both angiography and outcome. Among 966 subjects, including 277 (29%) women and 689 (71%) men, fewer women had prior coronary artery disease and more had prior congestive heart failure (P=0.05). Women were less likely to have ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (32% versus 39%, P=0.04). Among those with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarctions, identification and distribution of culprit arteries was similar between women and men, and there were no differences in treatment or outcome. In patients without ST-segment elevation post-arrest, women were overall less likely to undergo coronary angiography (51% versus 61%, P<0.02), have a culprit vessel identified (29% versus 45%, P=0.03), and had fewer culprits acutely occluded (17% versus 28%, P=0.03). Women were also less often re-vascularized (44% versus 52%, P<0.03). Conclusions Among cardiac arrest survivors, women are less likely to undergo angiography or percutaneous coronary intervention than men. Sex disparities for invasive therapies in post-cardiac arrest care need continued attention.
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