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| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 3. |
- Chung, Sun Ju, et al.
(author)
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Alpha-Synuclein Repeat Variants and Survival in Parkinson's Disease
- 2014
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In: Movement Disorders. - : Wiley. - 0885-3185. ; 29:8, s. 1053-1057
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objectives: To determine whether alpha-synuclein dinucleotide repeat (REP1) genotypes are associated with survival in Parkinson's disease (PD). Methods: Investigators from the Genetic Epidemiology of Parkinson's Disease Consortium provided REP1 genotypes and baseline and follow-up clinical data for cases. The primary outcome was time to death. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association of REP1 genotypes with survival. Results: Twenty-one sites contributed data for 6,154 cases. There was no significant association between alpha-synuclein REP1 genotypes and survival in PD. However, there was a significant association between REP1 genotypes and age at onset of PD (hazard ratio: 1.06; 95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.10; P value = 0.01). Conclusions: In our large consortium study, alpha-synuclein REP1 genotypes were not associated with survival in PD. Further studies of alpha-synuclein's role in disease progression and long-term outcomes are needed. (C) 2014 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society
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| 4. |
- Evangelou, Evangelos, et al.
(author)
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Genetic analysis of over 1 million people identifies 535 new loci associated with blood pressure traits.
- 2018
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In: Nature Genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 50:10, s. 1412-1425
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- High blood pressure is a highly heritable and modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease. We report the largest genetic association study of blood pressure traits (systolic, diastolic and pulse pressure) to date in over 1 million people of European ancestry. We identify 535 novel blood pressure loci that not only offer new biological insights into blood pressure regulation but also highlight shared genetic architecture between blood pressure and lifestyle exposures. Our findings identify new biological pathways for blood pressure regulation with potential for improved cardiovascular disease prevention in the future.
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| 6. |
- Hancock, Dana B, et al.
(author)
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Genome-Wide Joint Meta-Analysis of SNP and SNP-by-Smoking Interaction Identifies Novel Loci for Pulmonary Function
- 2012
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In: PLoS genetics. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1553-7404. ; 8:12, s. e1003098-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Genome-wide association studies have identified numerous genetic loci for spirometic measures of pulmonary function, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1), and its ratio to forced vital capacity (FEV1/FVC). Given that cigarette smoking adversely affects pulmonary function, we conducted genome-wide joint meta-analyses (JMA) of single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) and SNP-by-smoking (ever-smoking or pack-years) associations on FEV1 and FEV1/FVC across 19 studies (total N = 50,047). We identified three novel loci not previously associated with pulmonary function. SNPs in or near DNER (smallest PJMA = 5.00×10−11), HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DQA2 (smallest PJMA = 4.35×10−9), and KCNJ2 and SOX9 (smallest PJMA = 1.28×10−8) were associated with FEV1/FVC or FEV1 in meta-analysis models including SNP main effects, smoking main effects, and SNP-by-smoking (ever-smoking or pack-years) interaction. The HLA region has been widely implicated for autoimmune and lung phenotypes, unlike the other novel loci, which have not been widely implicated. We evaluated DNER, KCNJ2, and SOX9 and found them to be expressed in human lung tissue. DNER and SOX9 further showed evidence of differential expression in human airway epithelium in smokers compared to non-smokers. Our findings demonstrated that joint testing of SNP and SNP-by-environment interaction identified novel loci associated with complex traits that are missed when considering only the genetic main effects.
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| 7. |
- Kraja, Aldi T., et al.
(author)
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New Blood Pressure-Associated Loci Identified in Meta-Analyses of 475000 Individuals
- 2017
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In: Circulation. - : LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS. - 1942-325X .- 1942-3268. ; 10:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background - Genome-wide association studies have recently identified >400 loci that harbor DNA sequence variants that influence blood pressure (BP). Our earlier studies identified and validated 56 single nucleotide variants (SNVs) associated with BP from meta-analyses of exome chip genotype data. An additional 100 variants yielded suggestive evidence of association.Methods and Results - Here, we augment the sample with 140886 European individuals from the UK Biobank, in whom 77 of the 100 suggestive SNVs were available for association analysis with systolic BP or diastolic BP or pulse pressure. We performed 2 meta-analyses, one in individuals of European, South Asian, African, and Hispanic descent (pan-ancestry, approximate to 475000), and the other in the subset of individuals of European descent (approximate to 423000). Twenty-one SNVs were genome-wide significant (P<5x10(-8) ) for BP, of which 4 are new BP loci: rs9678851 (missense, SLC4A1AP), rs7437940 (AFAP1), rs13303 (missense, STAB1), and rs1055144 (7p15.2). In addition, we identified a potentially independent novel BP-associated SNV, rs3416322 (missense, SYNPO2L) at a known locus, uncorrelated with the previously reported SNVs. Two SNVs are associated with expression levels of nearby genes, and SNVs at 3 loci are associated with other traits. One SNV with a minor allele frequency <0.01, (rs3025380 at DBH) was genome-wide significant.Conclusions - We report 4 novel loci associated with BP regulation, and 1 independent variant at an established BP locus. This analysis highlights several candidate genes with variation that alter protein function or gene expression for potential follow-up.
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| 8. |
- Prost, Audrey, et al.
(author)
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Women's groups practising participatory learning and action to improve maternal and newborn health in low-resource settings : a systematic review and meta-analysis
- 2013
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 381:9879, s. 1736-46
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Maternal and neonatal mortality rates remain high in many low-income and middle-income countries. Different approaches for the improvement of birth outcomes have been used in community-based interventions, with heterogeneous effects on survival. We assessed the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action, compared with usual care, on birth outcomes in low-resource settings.METHODS: We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials undertaken in Bangladesh, India, Malawi, and Nepal in which the effects of women's groups practising participatory learning and action were assessed to identify population-level predictors of effect on maternal mortality, neonatal mortality, and stillbirths. We also reviewed the cost-effectiveness of the women's group intervention and estimated its potential effect at scale in Countdown countries.FINDINGS: Seven trials (119,428 births) met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analyses of all trials showed that exposure to women's groups was associated with a 37% reduction in maternal mortality (odds ratio 0.63, 95% CI 0.32-0.94), a 23% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.77, 0.65-0.90), and a 9% non-significant reduction in stillbirths (0.91, 0.79-1.03), with high heterogeneity for maternal (I(2)=58.8%, p=0.024) and neonatal results (I(2)=64.7%, p=0.009). In the meta-regression analyses, the proportion of pregnant women in groups was linearly associated with reduction in both maternal and neonatal mortality (p=0.026 and p=0.011, respectively). A subgroup analysis of the four studies in which at least 30% of pregnant women participated in groups showed a 55% reduction in maternal mortality (0.45, 0.17-0.73) and a 33% reduction in neonatal mortality (0.67, 0.59-0.74). The intervention was cost effective by WHO standards and could save an estimated 283,000 newborn infants and 41,100 mothers per year if implemented in rural areas of 74 Countdown countries.INTERPRETATION: With the participation of at least a third of pregnant women and adequate population coverage, women's groups practising participatory learning and action are a cost-effective strategy to improve maternal and neonatal survival in low-resource settings.
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| 9. |
- Saville, Naomi M., et al.
(author)
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Impact on birth weight and child growth of participatory learning and action women’s groups with and without transfers of food or cash during pregnancy : findings of the low birth weight South Asia cluster-randomised controlled trial (LBWSAT) in nepal
- 2018
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 13:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Undernutrition during pregnancy leads to low birthweight, poor growth and inter-generational undernutrition. We did a non-blinded cluster-randomised controlled trial in the plains districts of Dhanusha and Mahottari, Nepal to assess the impact on birthweight and weight-for-age z-scores among children aged 0–16 months of community-based participatory learning and action (PLA) women’s groups, with and without food or cash transfers to pregnant women.Methods: We randomly allocated 20 clusters per arm to four arms (average population/cluster = 6150). All consenting married women aged 10–49 years, who had not had tubal ligation and whose husbands had not had vasectomy, were monitored for missed menses. Between 29 Dec 2013 and 28 Feb 2015 we recruited 25,092 pregnant women to surveillance and interventions: PLA alone (n = 5626); PLA plus food (10 kg/month of fortified wheat-soya ‘Super Cereal’, n = 6884); PLA plus cash (NPR750≈US$7.5/month, n = 7272); control (existing government programmes, n = 5310). 539 PLA groups discussed and implemented strategies to improve low birthweight, nutrition in pregnancy and hand washing. Primary outcomes were birthweight within 72 hours of delivery and weight-for-age z-scores at endline (age 0–16 months). Only children born to permanent residents between 4 June 2014 and 20 June 2015 were eligible for intention to treat analyses (n = 10936), while in-migrating women and children born before interventions had been running for 16 weeks were excluded. Trial status: completed.Results: In PLA plus food/cash arms, 94–97% of pregnant women attended groups and received a mean of four transfers over their pregnancies. In the PLA only arm, 49% of pregnant women attended groups. Due to unrest, the response rate for birthweight was low at 22% (n = 2087), but response rate for endline nutritional and dietary measures exceeded 83% (n = 9242). Compared to the control arm (n = 464), mean birthweight was significantly higher in the PLA plus food arm by 78·0 g (95% CI 13·9, 142·0; n = 626) and not significantly higher in PLA only and PLA plus cash arms by 28·9 g (95% CI -37·7, 95·4; n = 488) and 50·5 g (95% CI -15·0, 116·1; n = 509) respectively. Mean weight-for-age z-scores of children aged 0–16 months (average age 9 months) sampled cross-sectionally at endpoint, were not significantly different from those in the control arm (n = 2091). Differences in weight for-age z-score were as follows: PLA only -0·026 (95% CI -0·117, 0·065; n = 2095); PLA plus cash -0·045 (95% CI -0·133, 0·044; n = 2545); PLA plus food -0·033 (95% CI -0·121, 0·056; n = 2507). Amongst many secondary outcomes tested, compared with control, more institutional deliveries (OR: 1.46 95% CI 1.03, 2.06; n = 2651) and less colostrum discarding (OR:0.71 95% CI 0.54, 0.93; n = 2548) were found in the PLA plus food arm but not in PLA alone or in PLA plus cash arms.Interpretation: Food supplements in pregnancy with PLA women’s groups increased birthweight more than PLA plus cash or PLA alone but differences were not sustained. Nutrition interventions throughout the thousand-day period are recommended.
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| 10. |
- Saville, Naomi M, et al.
(author)
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Protocol of the Low Birth Weight South Asia Trial (LBWSAT), a cluster-randomised controlled trial testing impact on birth weight and infant nutrition of Participatory Learning and Action through women's groups, with and without unconditional transfers of fortified food or cash during pregnancy in Nepal
- 2016
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In: BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth. - : BioMed Central. - 1471-2393 .- 1471-2393. ; 16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Low birth weight (LBW, < 2500 g) affects one third of newborn infants in rural south Asia and compromises child survival, infant growth, educational performance and economic prospects. We aimed to assess the impact on birth weight and weight-for-age Z-score in children aged 0-16 months of a nutrition Participatory Learning and Action behaviour change strategy (PLA) for pregnant women through women's groups, with or without unconditional transfers of food or cash to pregnant women in two districts of southern Nepal.METHODS: The study is a cluster randomised controlled trial (non-blinded). PLA comprises women's groups that discuss, and form strategies about, nutrition in pregnancy, low birth weight and hygiene. Women receive up to 7 monthly transfers per pregnancy: cash is NPR 750 (~US$7) and food is 10 kg of fortified sweetened wheat-soya Super Cereal per month. The unit of randomisation is a rural village development committee (VDC) cluster (population 4000-9200, mean 6150) in southern Dhanusha or Mahottari districts. 80 VDCs are randomised to four arms using a participatory 'tombola' method. Twenty clusters each receive: PLA; PLA plus food; PLA plus cash; and standard care (control). Participants are (mostly Maithili-speaking) pregnant women identified from 8 weeks' gestation onwards, and their infants (target sample size 8880 birth weights). After pregnancy verification, mothers may be followed up in early and late pregnancy, within 72 h, after 42 days and within 22 months of birth. Outcomes pertain to the individual level. Primary outcomes include birth weight within 72 h of birth and infant weight-for-age Z-score measured cross-sectionally on children born of the study. Secondary outcomes include prevalence of LBW, eating behaviour and weight during pregnancy, maternal and newborn illness, preterm delivery, miscarriage, stillbirth or neonatal mortality, infant Z-scores for length-for-age and weight-for-length, head circumference, and postnatal maternal BMI and mid-upper arm circumference. Exposure to women's groups, food or cash transfers, home visits, and group interventions are measured.DISCUSSION: Determining the relative importance to birth weight and early childhood nutrition of adding food or cash transfers to PLA women's groups will inform design of nutrition interventions in pregnancy.TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN75964374 , 12 Jul 2013.
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