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- Lerink, Bas J. W., et al.
(author)
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How much wood can we expect from European forests in the near future?
- 2023
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In: Forestry (London). - : Oxford University Press. - 0015-752X .- 1464-3626. ; 96:4, s. 434-447
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The demand for wood in Europe is expected to increase in the coming decades. However, any theoretical maximum supply will be affected by sustainability constraints, the motivations of forest owners and regional factors, such as incentives, species and assortments. However, the influence of these factors on supply is changeable. In this study, we quantify what might be realistically available as additional wood supply from currently existing European forests, based on a combination of results of the forest resource model EFISCEN-Space and a literature review of national supply projections. Wood mobilization scenarios for 10 representative Model Regions in Europe that assume forest owners and managers in the simulated regions will adapt their behaviour to alternative behaviour as recorded from other regions were projected with the EFISCEN-Space model. The realistic additional potential based on the literature review is 90 million m(3) yr(-1). This potential should be attainable within 10-20 years. However, the simulations in the Model Regions found potentials to be lower in 7 out of 10 cases as compared with the country they are located in. On average, the model regions reached less than half of the potential as compared with the literature review. This suggests that the realistic additional potential at the European scale may well be lower if all mobilization barriers are taken into account in more detail, but also highlights the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. We conclude from the analyses that although there are large differences in potential between regions and the analysis method employed, there are no 'hotspots' where a large pool of accessible wood can be quickly mobilized using existing infrastructure for nearby industries. An increase in harvest would therefore only be possible with a large effort that spans the whole chain, from forest owners' behaviour to capacity building, financial incentives and matching resources to harvesting capacity. The additionally available wood can most likely only be mobilized against higher marginal costs and will thus only become available in times of higher stumpage prices. The largest potential lies in privately owned forests which often have a fragmented ownership but will most likely be able to supply more wood, though mostly from deciduous species. In the long term (more than 20 years), additional wood, compared with the amounts we found for short term, can only be made available through investments in afforestation, forest restoration, improved forest management and more efficient use of raw material and recycled material.
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- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(author)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CO2emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom : 1990-2018
- 2021
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 13:5, s. 2363-2406
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized.
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- Smith, Pete, et al.
(author)
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Sectoral approaches to improve regional carbon budgets
- 2008
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In: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 88:3-4, s. 209-249
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans utilise about 40% of the earth's net primary production (NPP) but the products of this NPP are often managed by different sectors, with timber and forest products managed by the forestry sector and food and fibre products from croplands and grasslands managed by the agricultural sector. Other significant anthropogenic impacts on the global carbon cycle include human utilization of fossil fuels and impacts on less intensively managed systems such as peatlands, wetlands and permafrost. A great deal of knowledge, expertise and data is available within each sector. We describe the contribution of sectoral carbon budgets to our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Whilst many sectors exhibit similarities for carbon budgeting, some key differences arise due to differences in goods and services provided, ecology, management practices used, land-management personnel responsible, policies affecting land management, data types and availability, and the drivers of change. We review the methods and data sources available for assessing sectoral carbon budgets, and describe some of key data limitations and uncertainties for each sector in different regions of the world. We identify the main gaps in our knowledge/data, show that coverage is better for the developed world for most sectors, and suggest how sectoral carbon budgets could be improved in the future. Research priorities include the development of shared protocols through site networks, a move to full carbon accounting within sectors, and the assessment of full greenhouse gas budgets.
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