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- Nemlander, E., et al.
(author)
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A machine learning tool for identifying non-metastatic colorectal cancer in primary care
- 2023
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In: European Journal of Cancer. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-8049 .- 1879-0852. ; 182, s. 100-106
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Primary health care (PHC) is often the first point of contact when diagnosing colorectal cancer (CRC). Human limitations in processing large amounts of information warrant the use of machine learning as a diagnostic prediction tool for CRC. Aim: To develop a predictive model for identifying non-metastatic CRC (NMCRC) among PHC patients using diagnostic data analysed with machine learning. Design and setting: A case-control study containing data on PHC visits for 542 patients >18 years old diagnosed with NMCRC in the Vastra Gotaland Region, Sweden, during 2011, and 2,139 matched controls. Method: Stochastic gradient boosting (SGB) was used to construct a model for predicting the presence of NMCRC based on diagnostic codes from PHC consultations during the year before the date of cancer diagnosis and the total number of consultations. Variables with a normalised relative influence (NRI) >1% were considered having an important contribution to the model. Risks of having NMCRC were calculated using odds ratios of marginal effects. Results: Of the 361 variables used as predictors in the stochastic gradient boosting model, 184 had non-zero influence, with 16 variables having NRI >1% and a combined NRI of 63.3%. Variables representing anaemia and bleeding had a combined NRI of 27.6%. The model had a sensitivity of 73.3% and a specificity of 83.5%. Change in bowel habit had the highest odds ratios of marginal effects at 28.8. Conclusion: Machine learning is useful for identifying variables of importance for predicting NMCRC in PHC. Malignant diagnoses may be hidden behind benign symptoms such as haemorrhoids. 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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- Nemlander, Elinor, et al.
(author)
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Lung cancer prediction using machine learning on data from a symptom e-questionnaire for never smokers, formers smokers and current smokers
- 2022
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In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 17:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose The aim of the present study was to investigate the predictive ability for lung cancer of symptoms reported in an adaptive e-questionnaire, separately for never smokers, former smokers, and current smokers.Patients and methods Consecutive patients referred for suspected lung cancer were recruited between September 2014 and November 2015 from the lung clinic at the Karolinska University Hospital, Stockholm, Sweden. A total of 504 patients were later diagnosed with lung cancer (n = 310) or no cancer (n = 194). All participants answered an adaptive e-questionnaire with a maximum of 342 items, covering background variables and symptoms/sensations suspected to be associated with lung cancer. Stochastic gradient boosting, stratified on smoking status, was used to train and test a model for predicting the presence of lung cancer.Results Among never smokers, 17 predictors contributed to predicting lung cancer with 82% of the patients being correctly classified, compared with 26 predictors with an accuracy of 77% among current smokers and 36 predictors with an accuracy of 63% among former smokers. Age, sex, and education level were the most important predictors in all models.Conclusion Methods or tools to assess the likelihood of lung cancer based on smoking status and to prioritize investigative and treatment measures among all patients seeking care with diffuse symptoms are much needed. Our study presents risk assessment models for patients with different smoking status that may be developed into clinical risk assessment tools that can help clinicians in assessing a patient's risk of having lung cancer.
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