| 1. |
- Algaba, Juan-Carlos, et al.
(author)
-
Broadband Multi-wavelength Properties of M87 during the 2017 Event Horizon Telescope Campaign
- 2021
-
In: Astrophysical Journal Letters. - : American Astronomical Society. - 2041-8213 .- 2041-8205. ; 911:1
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In 2017, the Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) Collaboration succeeded in capturing the first direct image of the center of the M87 galaxy. The asymmetric ring morphology and size are consistent with theoretical expectations for a weakly accreting supermassive black hole of mass ∼6.5 × 109 M o˙. The EHTC also partnered with several international facilities in space and on the ground, to arrange an extensive, quasi-simultaneous multi-wavelength campaign. This Letter presents the results and analysis of this campaign, as well as the multi-wavelength data as a legacy data repository. We captured M87 in a historically low state, and the core flux dominates over HST-1 at high energies, making it possible to combine core flux constraints with the more spatially precise very long baseline interferometry data. We present the most complete simultaneous multi-wavelength spectrum of the active nucleus to date, and discuss the complexity and caveats of combining data from different spatial scales into one broadband spectrum. We apply two heuristic, isotropic leptonic single-zone models to provide insight into the basic source properties, but conclude that a structured jet is necessary to explain M87's spectrum. We can exclude that the simultaneous γ-ray emission is produced via inverse Compton emission in the same region producing the EHT mm-band emission, and further conclude that the γ-rays can only be produced in the inner jets (inward of HST-1) if there are strongly particle-dominated regions. Direct synchrotron emission from accelerated protons and secondaries cannot yet be excluded.
|
|
| 2. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
| 3. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
|
|
| 4. |
- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
-
- 2020
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)
|
|
| 5. |
- Afshin, Ashkan, et al.
(author)
-
Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2019
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 393:10184, s. 1958-1972
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity.Methods: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of diseasespecific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome.Findings: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates.Interpretation: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually.
|
|
| 6. |
- Lee, James J, et al.
(author)
-
Gene discovery and polygenic prediction from a genome-wide association study of educational attainment in 1.1 million individuals.
- 2018
-
In: Nature genetics. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1546-1718 .- 1061-4036. ; 50:8, s. 1112-1121
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Here we conducted a large-scale genetic association analysis of educational attainment in a sample of approximately 1.1million individuals and identify 1,271independent genome-wide-significant SNPs. For the SNPs taken together, we found evidence of heterogeneous effects across environments. The SNPs implicate genes involved in brain-development processes and neuron-to-neuron communication. In a separate analysis of the X chromosome, we identify 10independent genome-wide-significant SNPs and estimate a SNP heritability of around 0.3% in both men and women, consistent with partial dosage compensation. A joint (multi-phenotype) analysis of educational attainment and three related cognitive phenotypes generates polygenic scores that explain 11-13% of the variance in educational attainment and 7-10% of the variance in cognitive performance. This prediction accuracy substantially increases the utility of polygenic scores as tools in research.
|
|
| 7. |
- Beal, Jacob, et al.
(author)
-
Robust estimation of bacterial cell count from optical density
- 2020
-
In: Communications Biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 3:1
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Optical density (OD) is widely used to estimate the density of cells in liquid culture, but cannot be compared between instruments without a standardized calibration protocol and is challenging to relate to actual cell count. We address this with an interlaboratory study comparing three simple, low-cost, and highly accessible OD calibration protocols across 244 laboratories, applied to eight strains of constitutive GFP-expressing E. coli. Based on our results, we recommend calibrating OD to estimated cell count using serial dilution of silica microspheres, which produces highly precise calibration (95.5% of residuals <1.2-fold), is easily assessed for quality control, also assesses instrument effective linear range, and can be combined with fluorescence calibration to obtain units of Molecules of Equivalent Fluorescein (MEFL) per cell, allowing direct comparison and data fusion with flow cytometry measurements: in our study, fluorescence per cell measurements showed only a 1.07-fold mean difference between plate reader and flow cytometry data.
|
|
| 8. |
- Lyu, Yiming, et al.
(author)
-
Vaccine value profile for Neisseria gonorrhoeae
- 2023
-
In: Vaccine. - : Elsevier. - 0264-410X .- 1873-2518.
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection (gonorrhoea) is a global public health challenge, causing substantial sexual and reproductive health consequences, such as infertility, pregnancy complications and increased acquisition or transmission of HIV. There is an urgency to controlling gonorrhoea because of increasing antimicrobial resistance to ceftriaxone, the last remaining treatment option, and the potential for gonorrhoea to become untreatable. No licensed gonococcal vaccine is available. Mounting observational evidence suggests that N. meningitidis serogroup B outer membrane vesicle-based vaccines may induce cross-protection against N. gonorrhoeae (estimated 30%-40% effectiveness using the 4CMenB vaccine). Clinical trials to determine the efficacy of the 4CMenB vaccine against N. gonorrhoeae are underway, as are Phase 1/2 studies of a new gonococcal-specific vaccine candidate. Ultimately, a gonococcal vaccine must be accessible, affordable and equitably dispensed, given that those most affected by gonorrhoea are also those who may be most disadvantaged in our societies, and most cases are in less-resourced settings. This vaccine value profile (VVP) provides a high level, holistic assessment of the current data to inform the potential public health, economic and societal value of pipeline vaccines. This was developed by a working group of subject matter experts from academia, non-profit organizations, public private partnerships and multi-lateral organizations. All contributors have extensive expertise on various elements of the N. gonorrhoeae VVP and collectively aimed to identify current research and knowledge gaps. The VVP was developed using published data obtained from peer-reviewed journals or reports.
|
|
| 9. |
- Ong, Jason J., et al.
(author)
-
Cost-effectiveness of testing for Mycoplasma genitalium among men who have sex with men in Australia
- 2023
-
In: Sexually Transmitted Infections. - : BMJ Publishing Group Ltd. - 1368-4973 .- 1472-3263. ; 99:6, s. 398-403
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: Mycoplasma genitalium (MG) disproportionately affects men who have sex with men (MSM). We determined the cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies for MG in MSM, taking a healthcare provider perspective.METHODS: We used inputs from a dynamic transmission model of MG among MSM living in Australia in a decision tree model to evaluate the impact of four testing scenarios on MG incidence: (1) no one tested; (2) symptomatic MSM; (3) symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM; (4) all MSM. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $A30 000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. We explored the impact of adding an antimicrobial resistance (AMR) tax (ie, additional cost per antibiotic consumed) to identify the threshold, whereby any testing for MG is no longer cost-effective.RESULTS: Testing only symptomatic MSM is the most cost-effective (ICER $3677 per QALY gained) approach. Offering testing to all MSM is dominated (ie, higher costs and lower QALYs gained compared with other strategies). When the AMR tax per antibiotic given was above $150, any testing for MG was no longer cost-effective.CONCLUSION: Testing only symptomatic MSM is the most cost-effective option, even when the potential costs associated with AMR are accounted for (up to $150 additional cost per antibiotic given). For pathogens like MG, where there are anticipated future costs related to AMR, we recommend models that test the impact of incorporating an AMR tax as they can change the results and conclusions of cost-effectiveness studies.
|
|
| 10. |
- Ong, Jason J., et al.
(author)
-
Impact of screening on the prevalence and incidence of Mycoplasma genitalium and its macrolide resistance in men who have sex with men living in Australia : A mathematical model
- 2021
-
In: eClinicalMedicine. - : Elsevier. - 2589-5370. ; 33
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: (MG) causes a sexually transmitted infection (STI) with a rising rate of antimicrobial resistance. Currently, guidelines do not recommend screening asymptomatic men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a mathematical model of MG transmission to examine the impact of various screening strategies on the incidence and prevalence of MG among MSM attending a sexual health clinic.Methods: A compartmental mathematical model of MG transmission among MSM was constructed and calibrated using data from the Melbourne Sexual Health center, where resistance-guided therapy provides high treatment effectiveness (92-95%). The model stratified men by symptom status, sexual risk behaviours and whether or not they had MG with macrolide resistance. We simulated the impact on endemic steady-state MG prevalence and incidence of the following screening scenarios, namely screening: 1) no MSM; 2) only symptomatic MSM (the current recommendation); 3) all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM; and 4) all MSM. Our base case analysis assumed a treatment effectiveness of 92-95% using resistance-guided therapy. We also examined the impact of treatment effectiveness (i.e. the proportion of detected MG that were cured) and screening coverage (i.e. testing rate) on MG prevalence.Findings: The model predicts that the overall endemic MG prevalence is 9.1% (95% CI: 7.9-10.0) in the current situation where screening is only offered to symptomatic MSM (base-case). This would increase to 11·4% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 10.2-13.7) if no MSM are offered screening, but would decrease to 7.3% (95% CI: 5.7-8.4) if all symptomatic and high-risk asymptomatic MSM were offered screening and 6.4% (95% CI: 4.7-7·7) if all MSM were offered screening. Increasing coverage of MSM screening strategies shows a similar effect on decreasing endemic MG incidence. When evaluating the simultaneous impact of treatment effectiveness and screening coverage, we found that offering screening to more MSM may reduce the overall prevalence but leads to a higher proportion of macrolide-resistant MG, particularly when using treatment regimens with lower effectiveness.Interpretation: Based on the available treatment options, offering screening for MG to other MSM (beyond the currently recommended group of symptomatic MSM) could slightly reduce the prevalence and incidence of MG. However, further increasing screening coverage must be weighed against the impact of lower treatment effectiveness (i.e. when not using resistance-guided therapy), increasing the selection of macrolide resistance, and other negative consequences related to AMR and management (e.g. unnecessary psychological morbidity from infections that do not need treatment).
|
|
