| 1. |
- Caretta, Martina Angela, et al.
(author)
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Migration as adaptation to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes? A meta-review of existing evidence
- 2023
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In: Climatic Change. - 0165-0009. ; 176:8
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Due to its potential geo-political and environmental implications, climate migration is an increasing concern to the international community. However, while there is considerable attention devoted to migration in response to sea-level rise, there is a limited understanding of human mobility due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. Hence, the aim of this paper is to examine the existing evidence on migration as an adaptation strategy due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes. A meta-review of papers published between 2014 and 2019 yielded 67 publications, the majority of which focus on a handful of countries in the Global South. Droughts, floods, extreme heat, and changes in seasonal precipitation patterns were singled out as the most common hazards triggering migration. Importantly, most of the papers discuss mobility as part of a portfolio of responses. Motivations to migrate at the household level range from survival to searching for better economic opportunities. The outcomes of migration are mixed — spanning from higher incomes to difficulties in finding employment after moving and struggles with a higher cost of living. While remittances can be beneficial, migration does not always have a positive outcome for those who are left behind. Furthermore, this meta-review shows that migration, even when desired, is not an option for some of the most vulnerable households. These multifaceted results suggest that, while climate mobility is certainly happening due to freshwater and inland hydroclimatic changes, studies reviewing it are limited and substantial gaps remain in terms of geographical coverage, implementation assessments, and outcomes evaluation. We argue that these gaps need to be filled to inform climate and migration policies that increasingly need to be intertwined rather than shaped in isolation from each other.
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| 2. |
- Caretta, Martina Angela, et al.
(author)
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Water
- 2022
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In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability : Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change - Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
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| 3. |
- De Faria, Bruno L., et al.
(author)
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Climate change and deforestation increase the vulnerability of Amazonian forests to post-fire grass invasion
- 2021
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In: Global Ecology and Biogeography. - : Wiley. - 1466-822X .- 1466-8238. ; 30:12, s. 2368-2381
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: We aimed to evaluate the vulnerability of the Amazon forest to post-fire grass invasion under present and future climate scenarios.Location: Amazon Basin.Time period: 1981-2017 and 2070-2099.Major taxa studied: Plants.Methods: We combined a fire-ecosystem model with remote sensing data and empirically-derived equations to evaluate the effects of a high-intensity fire (i.e., during an extreme drought) and logging in forest edges on tree canopy, and exotic grass cover under present and unmitigated climate change scenarios. We also contrasted simulated vegetation recovery time (as a function of climate variability) and current fire return intervals to identify areas in which fire-grass feedbacks could lock the system in a grass-dominated state.Results: Under current climatic conditions, 14% of the Amazon was found to be vulnerable to post-fire grass invasion, with the south-eastern Amazon at the highest risk of invasion. We found that under unmitigated climate change, by the end of the century, 21% of the Amazon would be vulnerable to post-fire grass invasion. In 3% of the Amazon, fire return intervals are already shorter than the time required for grass exclusion by canopy recovery, implying a high risk of irreversible shifts to a fire-maintained degraded forest grassy state. The south-eastern region of the Amazon is currently at highest risk of irreversible degradation.Main conclusions: Although resilience is evident in areas with low fire activity, increased fire frequency and intensity could push large Amazon forest areas towards a tipping point, causing transitions to states with low tree and high grass cover.
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