| 1. |
- Gardumi, Francesco, et al.
(författare)
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Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways : Challenges and benefits
- 2022
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Ingår i: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442 .- 1873-6785. ; 258, s. 124329-124329
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.
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| 2. |
- Mörtberg, Ulla, 1960-, et al.
(författare)
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Sustainability assessment of intensified forestry - Forest bioenergy pathways versus forest biodiversity targeting forest birds
- 2021
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Ingår i: Sustainability. - : MDPI AG. - 2071-1050. ; 13:5
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Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Intensified forestry can be seen as a solution to climate change mitigation and securing energy supply, increasing the production of forest bioenergy feedstock as a substitution for fossil fuels. However, it may come with detrimental impacts on forest biodiversity, especially related to older forests. The aim of this study was to assess the sustainability of intensified forestry from climate-energy and biodiversity perspectives, targeting forest bird species. For this purpose, we applied the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool to the study area of Lithuania, having high ambitions for renewables and high forest biodiversity. With LEcA, we simulated forest growth and management for 100 years with two forest management strategies: Business As Usual (BAU) and Intensive forestry (INT), the latter with the purpose to fulfil renewable energy goals. With both strategies, the biomass yields increased well above the yields of the reference year, while the biodiversity indicators related to forest bird habitat to different degrees show the opposite, with lower levels than for the reference year. Furthermore, Strategy INT resulted in small-to-no benefits in the long run concerning potential biomass harvesting, while substantially affecting the biodiversity indicators negatively. The model results have the potential to inform policy and forest management planning concerning several sustainability goals simultaneously.
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| 3. |
- Pang, Xi, 1977-
(författare)
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Modelling trade-offs between forest bioenergy and biodiversity
- 2016
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Licentiatavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Globally, biodiversity is declining due to loss, fragmentation and degradation of habitat, which undermines ecosystem functioning and therefore threatens also the ability of ecosystems to supply ecosystem services. Moreover, there is a need for adapting to climate change as well as securing the supply of energy, which have led to a shift in energy consumption from fossil fuel to renewables, especially biomass, which in turn put increasing pressure on ecosystems and biodiversity. In Sweden, forest bioenergy has an important role, and high forest biomass production is an important societal objective. Intensified forestry could increase the biomass production through monocultures of native or introduced tree species as well as forest fertilization. However, due to negative effects on natural forest structures and processes, a more intensive forestry could be detrimental to forest biodiversity. The balance between energy demand and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to supply goods and services as well as support biodiversity is therefore crucial. The existing energy models and research have relatively low concerns on land use, landscape and biodiversity, comparing with high enthusiastic on energy economics, climate change and greenhouse gas emission research. Consequently, it would be difficult to provide comprehensive decision support by using only these economy and climate change oriented tools. However, ecological assessment models and multi-criteria approaches exist with great potential for linking with suitable energy models. This will enable the development of more comprehensive decision support tools for assessing future energy scenarios, integrating main policy concerns when assessing renewable energy options. The research was based on a survey on existing energy models and a case study of forest biomass extraction in Kronoberg, a region in southern Sweden. The aim of this project was to develop and test methods for integrated the sustainability assessment of forest biomass extraction for bioenergy purposes by incorporating effects on biodiversity. Forest growth was simulated under two management scenarios: Even-aged-forestry (EAF) and continuous-cover-forestry (CCF), in a time period between 2010-2110. The GIS-based approaches for assessment of biomass impacts on biodiversity involved an ecological network assessment of prioritized ecological profiles across the landscape under the two scenarios.
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| 4. |
- Pang, Xi, 1977-
(författare)
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Trade-off analysis of forest ecosystem services – A modelling approach
- 2017
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Doktorsavhandling (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Forest is a resource that is increasingly utilized for multiple purposes. The balance between energy demands and the long-term capacity of ecosystems to support biodiversity and other ecosystem services is crucial. The aim of this project was to increase the knowledge on and to develop methods and tools for trade-offs and synergies analysis among forest ecosystem services based on different forest management policies.Paper I provides an overview of existing models for integrated energy-environment assessment. A literature review was conducted on assessment models and their ability to integrate energy with environmental aspects. Missing environmental aspects concern land use, landscapes and biodiversity. In Paper II a modelling framework was set up to link a landscape simulator with a habitat network model for integrated assessment of bioenergy feedstock and biodiversity related impacts in Kronoberg County. In Paper III we continued with the same management scenarios, while the analysis was expanded to five ecosystem services by developing the Landscape simulation and Ecological Assessment (LEcA) tool: industrial wood, bioenergy, forest carbon stock, recreation areas and habitat networks. In Paper IV we present two heuristic methods for spatial optimization – simulated annealing (SA) and genetic algorithm (GA) – to find optimal solutions for allocating harvest activities, in order to minimize the impacts on habitat networks. In Paper V, as response to the findings in Paper I, we linked the energy model MESSAGE with our LEcA tool for forest bioenergy demand assessment while applying environmental and transport restrictions, in a study of Lithuania.We found trade-offs between industrial wood production and bioenergy on one side, and recreation values, biodiversity, and to some extent carbon storage on the other side. The LEcA tool integrated forest simulation and management with assessment of ecosystem services, which is promising for integrated sustainability assessment of forest management policies.
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