| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
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| 3. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 4. |
- Ebrahimi-Fakhari, Darius, et al.
(author)
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Defining the clinical, molecular and imaging spectrum of adaptor protein complex 4-associated hereditary spastic paraplegia
- 2020
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In: Brain. - OXFORD ENGLAND : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 0006-8950 .- 1460-2156. ; 143:10, s. 2929-2944
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Bi-allelic loss-of-function variants in genes that encode subunits of the adaptor protein complex 4 (AP-4) lead to prototypical yet poorly understood forms of childhood-onset and complex hereditary spastic paraplegia: SPG47 (AP4B1), SPG50 (AP4M1), SPG51 (AP4E1) and SPG52 (AP4S1). Here, we report a detailed cross-sectional analysis of clinical, imaging and molecular data of 156 patients from 101 families. Enrolled patients were of diverse ethnic backgrounds and covered a wide age range (1.0-49.3 years). While the mean age at symptom onset was 0.8 +/- 0.6 years [standard deviation (SD), range 0.2-5.0], the mean age at diagnosis was 10.2 +/- 8.5 years (SD, range 0.1-46.3). We define a set of core features: early-onset developmental delay with delayed motor milestones and significant speech delay (50% non-verbal); intellectual disability in the moderate to severe range; mild hypotonia in infancy followed by spastic diplegia (mean age: 8.4 +/- 5.1 years, SD) and later tetraplegia (mean age: 16.1 +/- 9.8 years, SD); postnatal microcephaly (83%); foot deformities (69%); and epilepsy (66%) that is intractable in a subset. At last follow-up, 36% ambulated with assistance (mean age: 8.9 +/- 6.4 years, SD) and 54% were wheelchair-dependent (mean age: 13.4 +/- 9.8 years, SD). Episodes of stereotypic laughing, possibly consistent with a pseudobulbar affect, were found in 56% of patients. Key features on neuroimaging include a thin corpus callosum (90%), ventriculomegaly (65%) often with colpocephaly, and periventricular white-matter signal abnormalities (68%). Iron deposition and polymicrogyria were found in a subset of patients. AP4B1-associated SPG47 and AP4M1-associated SPG50 accounted for the majority of cases. About two-thirds of patients were born to consanguineous parents, and 82% carried homozygous variants. Over 70 unique variants were present, the majority of which are frameshift or nonsense mutations. To track disease progression across the age spectrum, we defined the relationship between disease severity as measured by several rating scales and disease duration. We found that the presence of epilepsy, which manifested before the age of 3 years in the majority of patients, was associated with worse motor outcomes. Exploring genotype-phenotype correlations, we found that disease severity and major phenotypes were equally distributed among the four subtypes, establishing that SPG47, SPG50, SPG51 and SPG52 share a common phenotype, an 'AP-4 deficiency syndrome'. By delineating the core clinical, imaging, and molecular features of AP-4-associated hereditary spastic paraplegia across the age spectrum our results will facilitate early diagnosis, enable counselling and anticipatory guidance of affected families and help define endpoints for future interventional trials.
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| 5. |
- Cotlarciuc, Ioana, et al.
(author)
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Towards the genetic basis of cerebral venous thrombosis-the BEAST Consortium: a study protocol.
- 2016
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In: BMJ open. - : BMJ. - 2044-6055. ; 6:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) is a rare cerebrovascular condition accounting for <1% of all stroke cases and mainly affects young adults. Its genetic aetiology is not clearly elucidated.To better understand the genetic basis of CVT, we have established an international biobank of CVT cases, Biorepository to Establish the Aetiology of Sinovenous Thrombosis (BEAST) which aims to recruit highly phenotyped cases initially of European descent and later from other populations. To date we have recruited 745 CVT cases from 12 research centres. As an initial step, the consortium plans to undertake a genome-wide association analysis of CVT using the Illumina Infinium HumanCoreExome BeadChip to assess the association and impact of common and low-frequency genetic variants on CVT risk by using a case-control study design. Replication will be performed to confirm putative findings. Furthermore, we aim to identify interactions of genetic variants with several environmental and comorbidity factors which will likely contribute to improve the understanding of the biological mechanisms underlying this complex disease.BEAST meets all ethical standards set by local institutional review boards for each of the participating sites. The research outcomes will be published in international peer-reviewed open-access journals with high impact and visibility. The results will be presented at national and international meetings to highlight the contributions into improving the understanding of the mechanisms underlying this uncommon but important disease. This international DNA repository will become an important resource for investigators in the field of haematological and vascular disorders.
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| 6. |
- Dahlin, Peter, 1981-, et al.
(author)
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Joined by remoteness : An exploratory comparison of regional board networks in Sweden
- 2022
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In: Global Networks. - : Wiley. - 1470-2266 .- 1471-0374. ; 22:2, s. 325-343
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Studies of the global corporate elite have shown how networks of board interlocks form among large companies around the world. With interest in the conditions for businesses in the periphery, this exploratory study describes differences in regional board networks by comparing remote and central regions in Sweden. The regions share national culture, language and legislation and have similar demographics. We study business contexts far from the international spotlight and include all companies, not just the very largest, to capture the diversity of geographically dispersed business communities in Sweden. Findings suggest that being peripheral in a geographical sense can prove beneficial in terms of board network structure. The regional board networks in the remote regions are more inclusive and less fragmented, thus showing structural characteristics associated with the more effective spread of information. The regional networks formed in the geographic periphery thus appear to be beneficial for business. The findings in this exploratory story indicate that companies in the geographic periphery can be joined by remoteness.
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| 7. |
- Eriksson, Per-Erik, et al.
(author)
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Managing Interorganizational Innovation Projects : Mitigating the Negative Effects of Equivocality Through Knowledge Search Strategies
- 2016
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In: Long range planning. - : Elsevier BV. - 0024-6301 .- 1873-1872. ; 49:6, s. 691-705
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Equivocality, or divergent interpretations and understandings of tasks and knowledge, has negative effects on performance because it increases conflicts and creates communication and coordination challenges in inter-organizational innovation projects. However, equivocality may also stimulate team members to discuss beliefs and interpretations in ways that provide improved understanding of knowledge and tasks. We theorize that mitigation of negative effects of equivocality on project performance is conditional on explorative or exploitative knowledge search mode. Exploitative search (increasing search depth) allows for rapid learning based on the partners' existing knowledge, but it also limits a team's ability to interpret and combine diverse knowledge. Explorative search (increasing search breadth), on the other hand, allows for novel combinations of diverse knowledge and thereby alleviates the negative effect of equivocality on performance. Based on quantitative data from 251 respondents in 52 heavy-engineering innovation projects in four multinational corporations based in Sweden and from their 29 collaborating partner firms worldwide, we find that equivocality reduces project performance, but that joint explorative search mitigates the negative effect of equivocality on project performance. However, we do not find support for the moderation effect of exploitative search on the relationship between equivocality and project performance. Theoretical and managerial contributions as well as limitations and suggestions for future research are presented
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| 8. |
- Iyer, Dinesh N., et al.
(author)
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The triggers of local and distant search : Relative magnitude and persistence in explaining acquisition relatedness
- 2019
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In: Long range planning. - : Elsevier. - 0024-6301 .- 1873-1872. ; 52:5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Research on problemistic search has assumed negative attainment discrepancy to be the trigger of both local and distant search. Extending this research, we present and compare two additional triggers: (1) relative attainment discrepancy, which reflects how much a firm's attainment discrepancy deviates from its past negative attainment discrepancies; and (2) persistent attainment discrepancy, which reflects how often the firm experiences below-aspirations performance. Our triggers for distant search model a behavioral explanation for the timing and relatedness of acquisitions. We find support for baseline arguments of problemistic search whereby firms increase both industry- and skill-related acquisitions when they perform below aspirations. When they persistently perform below aspirations, however, this likelihood is reduced and firms engage in acquisitions that are more unrelated, thereby providing support for the notion of expanding search boundaries from local to distant search. Of the two triggers of distant search proposed, relative attainment discrepancy does not induce firms to expand search boundaries. Our results indicate that persistent attainment discrepancy is a key construct to consider when studying the expansion of search boundaries.
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| 9. |
- Karlsson, Stefan, et al.
(author)
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Retail returns management strategy : an alignment perspective
- 2023
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In: Journal of Innovation & Knowledge. - : Elsevier. - 2530-7614 .- 2444-569X. ; 8:4, s. 1-10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This research aims to shed light on the formulation of returns management strategies and to identify key returns management components in developing more effective returns management strategies. Anchored in supply chain orientation and supply chain alignment research, we use a multiple confirmatory case study of six retailers operating in online commerce. Interviews with fifteen managers provided the primary empirical data source for the study. The results confirm the presence of alignment in establishing effective strategies for managing product returns and suggest a return policy. The findings provide detailed insights into seven existing misalignments that curb the strength of alignment. These serve as strategic elements for managers to consider in formulating returns management strategies and goals. The results may assist retail and supply chain professionals in their quest to develop effective strategies for managing product returns. Research on returns management strategy is scarce. This study offers a conceptual framework and provides new empirical insights into returns management strategy formulation and, in particular, potential misalignments.
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| 10. |
- Kohtamäki, Marko, et al.
(author)
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The relationship between digitalization and servitization : The role of servitization in capturing the financial potential of digitalization
- 2020
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In: Technological forecasting & social change. - : Elsevier. - 0040-1625 .- 1873-5509. ; 151
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present study investigates the effect of the interaction between digitalization and servitization on the financial performance of manufacturing companies. We challenge the simple linear assumption between digitalization and financial performance with a sample of 131 manufacturing firms and hypothesize a nonlinear U-shaped interaction effect between digitalization and servitization on financial performance. From low to moderate levels of digitalization, the interaction effect between digitalization and high servitization on company financial performance is negative and significant. From moderate to high levels of digitalization, the interplay between digitalization and high servitization becomes positive and significant, improving companies’ financial performance. The results demonstrate the need for an effective interplay between digitalization and servitization, the digital servitization. Without this interplay, a manufacturing company may face the paradox of digitalization. For managers of manufacturing companies, the study provides insights into the complex relationship between digitalization and financial performance, emphasizing the value of servitization in driving financial performance from digitalization. Thus, the study demonstrates how manufacturing companies can become data-driven by advancing servitization.
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