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| 2. |
- Menkveld, Albert J., et al.
(author)
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Nonstandard Errors
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF FINANCE. - : Wiley-Blackwell. - 0022-1082 .- 1540-6261. ; 79:3, s. 2339-2390
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In statistics, samples are drawn from a population in a data-generating process (DGP). Standard errors measure the uncertainty in estimates of population parameters. In science, evidence is generated to test hypotheses in an evidence-generating process (EGP). We claim that EGP variation across researchers adds uncertainty-nonstandard errors (NSEs). We study NSEs by letting 164 teams test the same hypotheses on the same data. NSEs turn out to be sizable, but smaller for more reproducible or higher rated research. Adding peer-review stages reduces NSEs. We further find that this type of uncertainty is underestimated by participants.
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| 3. |
- Abrego, Nerea, et al.
(author)
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Airborne DNA reveals predictable spatial and seasonal dynamics of fungi
- 2024
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In: Nature. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 631, s. 835-842
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Fungi are among the most diverse and ecologically important kingdoms in life. However, the distributional ranges of fungi remain largely unknown as do the ecological mechanisms that shape their distributions1,2. To provide an integrated view of the spatial and seasonal dynamics of fungi, we implemented a globally distributed standardized aerial sampling of fungal spores3. The vast majority of operational taxonomic units were detected within only one climatic zone, and the spatiotemporal patterns of species richness and community composition were mostly explained by annual mean air temperature. Tropical regions hosted the highest fungal diversity except for lichenized, ericoid mycorrhizal and ectomycorrhizal fungi, which reached their peak diversity in temperate regions. The sensitivity in climatic responses was associated with phylogenetic relatedness, suggesting that large-scale distributions of some fungal groups are partially constrained by their ancestral niche. There was a strong phylogenetic signal in seasonal sensitivity, suggesting that some groups of fungi have retained their ancestral trait of sporulating for only a short period. Overall, our results show that the hyperdiverse kingdom of fungi follows globally highly predictable spatial and temporal dynamics, with seasonality in both species richness and community composition increasing with latitude. Our study reports patterns resembling those described for other major groups of organisms, thus making a major contribution to the long-standing debate on whether organisms with a microbial lifestyle follow the global biodiversity paradigms known for macroorganisms4,5.
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| 4. |
- Almeida, Joao, et al.
(author)
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Molecular understanding of sulphuric acid-amine particle nucleation in the atmosphere
- 2013
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 502:7471, s. 359-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Nucleation of aerosol particles from trace atmospheric vapours is thought to provide up to half of global cloud condensation nuclei(1). Aerosols can cause a net cooling of climate by scattering sunlight and by leading to smaller but more numerous cloud droplets, which makes clouds brighter and extends their lifetimes(2). Atmospheric aerosols derived from human activities are thought to have compensated for a large fraction of the warming caused by greenhouse gases(2). However, despite its importance for climate, atmospheric nucleation is poorly understood. Recently, it has been shown that sulphuric acid and ammonia cannot explain particle formation rates observed in the lower atmosphere(3). It is thought that amines may enhance nucleation(4-16), but until now there has been no direct evidence for amine ternary nucleation under atmospheric conditions. Here we use the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoor Droplets) chamber at CERN and find that dimethylamine above three parts per trillion by volume can enhance particle formation rates more than 1,000-fold compared with ammonia, sufficient to account for the particle formation rates observed in the atmosphere. Molecular analysis of the clusters reveals that the faster nucleation is explained by a base-stabilization mechanism involving acid-amine pairs, which strongly decrease evaporation. The ion-induced contribution is generally small, reflecting the high stability of sulphuric acid-dimethylamine clusters and indicating that galactic cosmic rays exert only a small influence on their formation, except at low overall formation rates. Our experimental measurements are well reproduced by a dynamical model based on quantum chemical calculations of binding energies of molecular clusters, without any fitted parameters. These results show that, in regions of the atmosphere near amine sources, both amines and sulphur dioxide should be considered when assessing the impact of anthropogenic activities on particle formation.
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| 5. |
- Joensuu, Heikki, et al.
(author)
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Adjuvant Imatinib for High-Risk GI Stromal Tumor: Analysis of a Randomized Trial.
- 2016
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In: Journal of Clinical Oncology. - 1527-7755. ; 34:3, s. 244-250
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Three years of adjuvant imatinib therapy are recommended for patients with GI stromal tumor (GIST) with high-risk features, according to survival findings in the Scandinavian Sarcoma Group XVIII/AIO (Arbeitsgemeinschaft Internistische Onkologie) trial. To investigate whether the survival benefits have persisted, we performed the second planned analysis of the trial.
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| 6. |
- Joensuu, Heikki, et al.
(author)
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One vs Three Years of Adjuvant Imatinib for Operable Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor : A Randomized Trial
- 2012
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In: JAMA: The Journal of the American Medical Association. - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 1538-3598. ; 307:12, s. 1265-1272
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Context Adjuvant imatinib administered for 12 months after surgery has improved recurrence-free survival (RFS) of patients with operable gastrointestinal stromal tumor (GIST) compared with placebo. Objective To investigate the role of imatinib administration duration as adjuvant treatment of patients who have a high estimated risk for GIST recurrence after surgery. Design, Setting, and Patients Patients with KIT-positive GIST removed at surgery were entered between February 2004 and September 2008 to this randomized, open-label phase 3 study conducted in 24 hospitals in Finland, Germany, Norway, and Sweden. The risk of GIST recurrence was estimated using the modified National Institutes of Health Consensus Criteria. Intervention Imatinib, 400 mg per day, orally for either 12 months or 36 months, started within 12 weeks of surgery. Main Outcome Measures The primary end point was RFS; the secondary end points included overall survival and treatment safety. Results Two hundred patients were allocated to each group. The median follow-up time after randomization was 54 months in December 2010. Diagnosis of GIST was confirmed in 382 of 397 patients (96%) in the intention-to-treat population at a central pathology review. KIT or PDGFRA mutation was detected in 333 of 366 tumors (91%) available for testing. Patients assigned for 36 months of imatinib had longer RFS compared with those assigned for 12 months (hazard ratio [HR], 0.46; 95% CI, 0.32-0.65; P = .001; 5-year RFS, 65.6% vs 47.9%, respectively) and longer overall survival (HR, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.22-0.89; P=. 02; 5-year survival, 92.0% vs 81.7%). Imatinib was generally well tolerated, but 12.6% and 25.8% of patients assigned to the 12-and 36-month groups, respectively, discontinued imatinib for a reason other than GIST recurrence. Conclusion Compared with 12 months of adjuvant imatinib, 36 months of imatinib improved RFS and overall survival of GIST patients with a high risk of GIST recurrence.
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| 7. |
- Lehtipalo, Katrianne, et al.
(author)
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The effect of acid-base clustering and ions on the growth of atmospheric nano-particles
- 2016
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In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The growth of freshly formed aerosol particles can be the bottleneck in their survival to cloud condensation nuclei. It is therefore crucial to understand how particles grow in the atmosphere. Insufficient experimental data has impeded a profound understanding of nano-particle growth under atmospheric conditions. Here we study nano-particle growth in the CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving OUtdoors Droplets) chamber, starting from the formation of molecular clusters. We present measured growth rates at sub-3 nm sizes with different atmospherically relevant concentrations of sulphuric acid, water, ammonia and dimethylamine. We find that atmospheric ions and small acid-base clusters, which are not generally accounted for in the measurement of sulphuric acid vapour, can participate in the growth process, leading to enhanced growth rates. The availability of compounds capable of stabilizing sulphuric acid clusters governs the magnitude of these effects and thus the exact growth mechanism. We bring these observations into a coherent framework and discuss their significance in the atmosphere.
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| 8. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 9. |
- Ollila, Petri, et al.
(author)
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Farmers' reactions to the internationalisation of cooperatives
- 2014
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In: Agricultural and Food Science. - : Agricultural and Food Science. - 1459-6067 .- 1795-1895. ; 23, s. 291-306
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study examined the extent to which farmer cooperatives enjoy social capital within their memberships as they become internationalised. The empirical basis was a survey of farmers in Finland. Findings from limited dependent variable regression models suggest that the farmers who are most loyal to their cooperatives tend to oppose its foreign investments. Another group of farmers tended to switch membership status between different cooperatives, and a third group tended to opt out of cooperatives. The two latter categories were characterised by a lower level of social capital, and both of them welcomed the cooperatives' international operations. This finding was more significant for individual farm types than the social capital-linked opposition to internationalisation. A general conclusion is that the internationalisation of cooperatives seems to affect the members' trust in the cooperative differently. Thus there is increasing heterogeneity within the memberships which may give rise to governance problems.
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| 10. |
- Ovaskainen, Otso, et al.
(author)
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Global Spore Sampling Project: A global, standardized dataset of airborne fungal DNA
- 2024
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In: Scientific Data. - 2052-4463. ; 11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Novel methods for sampling and characterizing biodiversity hold great promise for re-evaluating patterns of life across the planet. The sampling of airborne spores with a cyclone sampler, and the sequencing of their DNA, have been suggested as an efficient and well-calibrated tool for surveying fungal diversity across various environments. Here we present data originating from the Global Spore Sampling Project, comprising 2,768 samples collected during two years at 47 outdoor locations across the world. Each sample represents fungal DNA extracted from 24 m3 of air. We applied a conservative bioinformatics pipeline that filtered out sequences that did not show strong evidence of representing a fungal species. The pipeline yielded 27,954 species-level operational taxonomic units (OTUs). Each OTU is accompanied by a probabilistic taxonomic classification, validated through comparison with expert evaluations. To examine the potential of the data for ecological analyses, we partitioned the variation in species distributions into spatial and seasonal components, showing a strong effect of the annual mean temperature on community composition.
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