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- Grossmann, Igor, et al.
(author)
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Insights into the accuracy of social scientists' forecasts of societal change
- 2023
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In: Nature Human Behaviour. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-3374. ; 7, s. 484-501
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- How well can social scientists predict societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? To answer these questions, we ran two forecasting tournaments testing the accuracy of predictions of societal change in domains commonly studied in the social sciences: ideological preferences, political polarization, life satisfaction, sentiment on social media, and gender-career and racial bias. After we provided them with historical trend data on the relevant domain, social scientists submitted pre-registered monthly forecasts for a year (Tournament 1; N = 86 teams and 359 forecasts), with an opportunity to update forecasts on the basis of new data six months later (Tournament 2; N = 120 teams and 546 forecasts). Benchmarking forecasting accuracy revealed that social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models (historical means, random walks or linear regressions) or the aggregate forecasts of a sample from the general public (N = 802). However, scientists were more accurate if they had scientific expertise in a prediction domain, were interdisciplinary, used simpler models and based predictions on prior data. How accurate are social scientists in predicting societal change, and what processes underlie their predictions? Grossmann et al. report the findings of two forecasting tournaments. Social scientists' forecasts were on average no more accurate than those of simple statistical models.
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- Nguyen, Thanh N, et al.
(author)
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Global Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stroke Volumes and Cerebrovascular Events: A 1-Year Follow-up.
- 2023
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In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Declines in stroke admission, IV thrombolysis (IVT), and mechanical thrombectomy volumes were reported during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. There is a paucity of data on the longer-term effect of the pandemic on stroke volumes over the course of a year and through the second wave of the pandemic. We sought to measure the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the volumes of stroke admissions, intracranial hemorrhage (ICH), IVT, and mechanical thrombectomy over a 1-year period at the onset of the pandemic (March 1, 2020, to February 28, 2021) compared with the immediately preceding year (March 1, 2019, to February 29, 2020).We conducted a longitudinal retrospective study across 6 continents, 56 countries, and 275 stroke centers. We collected volume data for COVID-19 admissions and 4 stroke metrics: ischemic stroke admissions, ICH admissions, IVT treatments, and mechanical thrombectomy procedures. Diagnoses were identified by their ICD-10 codes or classifications in stroke databases.There were 148,895 stroke admissions in the 1 year immediately before compared with 138,453 admissions during the 1-year pandemic, representing a 7% decline (95% CI [95% CI 7.1-6.9]; p < 0.0001). ICH volumes declined from 29,585 to 28,156 (4.8% [5.1-4.6]; p < 0.0001) and IVT volume from 24,584 to 23,077 (6.1% [6.4-5.8]; p < 0.0001). Larger declines were observed at high-volume compared with low-volume centers (all p < 0.0001). There was no significant change in mechanical thrombectomy volumes (0.7% [0.6-0.9]; p = 0.49). Stroke was diagnosed in 1.3% [1.31-1.38] of 406,792 COVID-19 hospitalizations. SARS-CoV-2 infection was present in 2.9% ([2.82-2.97], 5,656/195,539) of all stroke hospitalizations.There was a global decline and shift to lower-volume centers of stroke admission volumes, ICH volumes, and IVT volumes during the 1st year of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with the prior year. Mechanical thrombectomy volumes were preserved. These results suggest preservation in the stroke care of higher severity of disease through the first pandemic year.This study is registered under NCT04934020.
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- Marto, João Pedro, et al.
(author)
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Safety and Outcome of Revascularization Treatment in Patients With Acute Ischemic Stroke and COVID-19: The Global COVID-19 Stroke Registry.
- 2023
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In: Neurology. - 1526-632X. ; 100:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- COVID-19-related inflammation, endothelial dysfunction, and coagulopathy may increase the bleeding risk and lower the efficacy of revascularization treatments in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS). We aimed to evaluate the safety and outcomes of revascularization treatments in patients with AIS and COVID-19.This was a retrospective multicenter cohort study of consecutive patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) and/or endovascular treatment (EVT) between March 2020 and June 2021 tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection. With a doubly robust model combining propensity score weighting and multivariate regression, we studied the association of COVID-19 with intracranial bleeding complications and clinical outcomes. Subgroup analyses were performed according to treatment groups (IVT-only and EVT).Of a total of 15,128 included patients from 105 centers, 853 (5.6%) were diagnosed with COVID-19; of those, 5,848 (38.7%) patients received IVT-only and 9,280 (61.3%) EVT (with or without IVT). Patients with COVID-19 had a higher rate of symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (SICH) (adjusted OR 1.53; 95% CI 1.16-2.01), symptomatic subarachnoid hemorrhage (SSAH) (OR 1.80; 95% CI 1.20-2.69), SICH and/or SSAH combined (OR 1.56; 95% CI 1.23-1.99), 24-hour mortality (OR 2.47; 95% CI 1.58-3.86), and 3-month mortality (OR 1.88; 95% CI 1.52-2.33). Patients with COVID-19 also had an unfavorable shift in the distribution of the modified Rankin score at 3 months (OR 1.42; 95% CI 1.26-1.60).Patients with AIS and COVID-19 showed higher rates of intracranial bleeding complications and worse clinical outcomes after revascularization treatments than contemporaneous non-COVID-19 patients receiving treatment. Current available data do not allow direct conclusions to be drawn on the effectiveness of revascularization treatments in patients with COVID-19 or to establish different treatment recommendations in this subgroup of patients with ischemic stroke. Our findings can be taken into consideration for treatment decisions, patient monitoring, and establishing prognosis.The study was registered under ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT04895462.
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- Van der Mooren, Marrie, et al.
(author)
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Understanding visual complaints of two intraocular lens explant cases
- 2015
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In: Investigative Ophthalmology and Visual Science. - : ASSOC RESEARCH VISION OPHTHALMOLOGY INC. - 0146-0404 .- 1552-5783. ; 56:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Purpose In two different cases, multifocal intraocular lenses (MFIOLs) were explanted due to visual complications related to the presence of micro-vacuoles in the optic body. These micro-vacuoles cause straylight, which resulted in complaints of hazy and blurry vision. The purpose of this study is to objectively measure and systematically quantify the visual impact of this straylight. The study will thereby give a better understanding of the origin of reported visual complaints when micro-vacuoles are present. Methods The amount of straylight in the two explanted MFIOLs was measured using an in-vitro setup and quantified using the scattering parameter s. To determine the impact of straylight on vision, photographic filters characterized in the same in-vitro setup were used to induce straylight on five subjects. Four different psychophysical visual tests were used: halo size, luminance detection with a glare source, and contrast sensitivity (CS) with and without the presence of glare. For all tests, the impact was modeled as a linear interpolation of the logarithm of the test score against the logarithm of the scattering parameter, log(s). Results The straylight measured by the in-vitro setup was 6 deg2/sr for case 1 and 4 deg2/sr for case 2. Assuming a base straylight level of 1.1 log(s), the induced increase for the two patients was 0.17 log(s) and 0.12 log(s) respectively. The impact for the visual tests per unit of log(s) was the following: for halo size, 0.55 log(degrees)/log(s); for luminance detection 2.72 log(cd/m2)/log(s); for CS without glare, 0.33 log(CS)/log(s); and for CS with glare, 0.58 log(CS)/log(s). The induced straylight for the two explanted MFIOLs therefore corresponds to an increase of halo size of 24% and 16%, a luminance detection threshold increase of 190% and 112%, a contrast sensitivity decrease of 12% and 9% without a glare source, and a contrast sensitivity decrease of 20% and 9% with a glare source. Conclusions In the explanted MFIOLs we could objectively measure straylight. This straylight corresponds psychophysically to increases in halo size, loss of luminance sensitivity and decrease in contrast sensitivity. Among the visual tests, measurement of luminance detection showed the highest sensitivity.
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