| 1. |
- Kallingal, Jalisha T., et al.
(author)
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Optimising CH4 simulations from the LPJ-GUESS model v4.1 using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm
- 2024
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - 1991-959X. ; 17:6, s. 2299-2324
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The processes responsible for methane (CH4) emissions from boreal wetlands are complex; hence, their model representation is complicated by a large number of parameters and parameter uncertainties. The arctic-enabled dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator) is one such model that allows quantification and understanding of the natural wetland CH4 fluxes at various scales, ranging from local to regional and global, but with several uncertainties. The model contains detailed descriptions of the CH4 production, oxidation, and transport controlled by several process parameters. Complexities in the underlying environmental processes, warming-driven alternative paths of meteorological phenomena, and changes in hydrological and vegetation conditions highlight the need for a calibrated and optimised version of LPJ-GUESS. In this study, we formulated the parameter calibration as a Bayesian problem, using knowledge of reasonable parameters values as priors. We then used an adaptive Metropolis-Hastings (MH)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to improve predictions of CH4 emission by LPJ-GUESS and to quantify uncertainties. Application of this method on uncertain parameters allows for a greater search of their posterior distribution, leading to a more complete characterisation of the posterior distribution with a reduced risk of the sample impoverishment that can occur when using other optimisation methods. For assimilation, the analysis used flux measurement data gathered during the period from 2005 to 2014 from the Siikaneva wetlands in Southern Finland with an estimation of measurement uncertainties. The data are used to constrain the processes behind the CH4 dynamics, and the posterior covariance structures are used to explain how the parameters and the processes are related. To further support the conclusions, the CH4 flux and the other component fluxes associated with the flux are examined. The results demonstrate the robustness of MCMC methods to quantitatively assess the interrelationship between objective function choices, parameter identifiability, and data support. The experiment using real observations from Siikaneva resulted in a reduction in the root-mean-square error (RMSE), from 0.044 to 0.023 gC m-2 d-1, and a 93.89 % reduction in the cost function value. As a part of this work, knowledge about how CH4 data can constrain the parameters and processes is derived. Although the optimisation is performed based on a single site's flux data from Siikaneva, the algorithm is useful for larger-scale multi-site studies for a more robust calibration of LPJ-GUESS and similar models, and the results can highlight where model improvements are needed.
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| 2. |
- Li, Tingting, et al.
(author)
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Importance of vegetation classes in modeling CH4 emissions from boreal and subarctic wetlands in Finland
- 2016
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier BV. - 0048-9697. ; 572, s. 1111-1122
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Boreal/arctic wetlands are dominated by diverse plant species, which vary in their contribution to CH4 production, oxidation and transport processes. Earlier studies have often lumped the processes all together, which may induce large uncertainties into the results. We present a novel model, which includes three vegetation classes and can be used to simulate CH4 emissions from boreal and arctic treeless wetlands. The model is based on an earlier biogeophysical model, CH4MODwetland. We grouped the vegetation as graminoids, shrubs and Sphagnum and recalibrated the vegetation parameters according to their different CH4 production, oxidation and transport capacities. Then, we used eddy-covariance-based CH4 flux observations from a boreal (Siikaneva) and a subarctic fen (Lompolojänkkä) in Finland to validate the model. The results showed that the recalibrated model could generally simulate the seasonal patterns of the Finnish wetlands with different plant communities. The comparison between the simulated and measured daily CH4 fluxes resulted in a correlation coefficient (R 2 ) of 0.82 with a slope of 1.0 and an intercept of -0.1mgm-2 h-1 for the Siikaneva site (n=2249, p<0.001) and an R2 of 0.82 with a slope of 1.0 and an intercept of 0.0mgm-2 h-1 for the Lompolojänkkä site (n=1826, p<0.001). Compared with the original model, the recalibrated model in this study significantly improved the model efficiency (EF), from -5.5 to 0.8 at the Siikaneva site and from -0.4 to 0.8 at the Lompolojänkkä site. The simulated annual CH4 emissions ranged from 7 to 24gm-2 yr-1, which was consistent with the observations (7-22gm-2 yr-1). However, there are some discrepancies between the simulated and observed daily CH4 fluxes for the Siikaneva site (RMSE =50.0%) and the Lompolojänkkä site (RMSE =47.9%). Model sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the proportion of the graminoids would significantly increase the CH4 emission levels. Our study demonstrated that the parameterization of the different vegetation processes was important in estimating long-term wetland CH4 emissions.
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| 3. |
- Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, et al.
(author)
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The consolidated European synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990-2019
- 2023
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 15:3, s. 1197-1268
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Knowledge of the spatial distribution of the fluxes of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and their temporal variability as well as flux attribution to natural and anthropogenic processes is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Paris Agreement and to inform its global stocktake. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of CH4 and N2O emissions using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK) and updates earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021). The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates, and it extends the previous period of 1990-2017 to 2019. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported by parties under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2021. Uncertainties in NGHGIs, as reported to the UNFCCC by the EU and its member states, are also included in the synthesis. Variations in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, the activities included are a key source of bias between estimates, e.g., anthropogenic and natural fluxes, which in atmospheric inversions are sensitive to the prior geospatial distribution of emissions. For CH4 emissions, over the updated 2015-2019 period, which covers a sufficiently robust number of overlapping estimates, and most importantly the NGHGIs, the anthropogenic BU approaches are directly comparable, accounting for mean emissions of 20.5 TgCH(4) yr(-1) (EDGARv6.0, last year 2018) and 18.4 TgCH(4) yr(-1) (GAINS, last year 2015), close to the NGHGI estimates of 17 :5 +/- 2 :1 TgCH(4) yr(-1). TD inversion estimates give higher emission estimates, as they also detect natural emissions. Over the same period, high-resolution regional TD inversions report a mean emission of 34 TgCH(4) yr(-1). Coarser-resolution global-scale TD inversions result in emission estimates of 23 and 24 TgCH(4) yr(-1) inferred from GOSAT and surface (SURF) network atmospheric measurements, respectively. The magnitude of natural peatland and mineral soil emissions from the JSBACH-HIMMELI model, natural rivers, lake and reservoir emissions, geological sources, and biomass burning together could account for the gap between NGHGI and inversions and account for 8 TgCH(4) yr(-1). For N2O emissions, over the 2015-2019 period, both BU products (EDGARv6.0 and GAINS) report a mean value of anthropogenic emissions of 0.9 TgN(2)Oyr(-1), close to the NGHGI data (0 :8 +/- 55% TgN(2)Oyr(-1)). Over the same period, the mean of TD global and regional inversions was 1.4 TgN(2)Oyr(-1) (excluding TOMCAT, which reported no data). The TD and BU comparison method defined in this study can be operationalized for future annual updates for the calculation of CH4 and N2O budgets at the national and EU27 C UK scales. Future comparability will be enhanced with further steps involving analysis at finer temporal resolutions and estimation of emissions over intra-annual timescales, which is of great importance for CH4 and N2O, and may help identify sector contributions to divergence between prior and posterior estimates at the annual and/or inter-annual scale. Even if currently comparison between CH4 and N2O inversion estimates and NGHGIs is highly uncertain because of the large spread in the inversion results, TD inversions inferred from atmospheric observations represent the most independent data against which inventory totals can be compared. With anticipated improvements in atmospheric modeling and observations, as well as modeling of natural fluxes, TD inversions may arguably emerge as the most powerful tool for verifying emission inventories for CH4, N2O and other GHGs. The referenced dataset srelated to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7553800 (Petrescu et al., 2023).
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| 4. |
- Raivonen, Maarit, et al.
(author)
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HIMMELI v1.0 : HelsinkI Model of MEthane buiLd-up and emIssion for peatlands
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:12, s. 4665-4691
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Wetlands are one of the most significant natural sources of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere. They emit CH4 because decomposition of soil organic matter in waterlogged anoxic conditions produces CH4, in addition to carbon dioxide (CO2). Production of CH4 and how much of it escapes to the atmosphere depend on a multitude of environmental drivers. Models simulating the processes leading to CH4 emissions are thus needed for upscaling observations to estimate present CH4 emissions and for producing scenarios of future atmospheric CH4 concentrations. Aiming at a CH4 model that can be added to models describing peatland carbon cycling, we composed a model called HIMMELI that describes CH4 build-up in and emissions from peatland soils. It is not a full peatland carbon cycle model but it requires the rate of anoxic soil respiration as input. Driven by soil temperature, leaf area index (LAI) of aerenchymatous peatland vegetation, and water table depth (WTD), it simulates the concentrations and transport of CH4, CO2, and oxygen (O2) in a layered one-dimensional peat column. Here, we present the HIMMELI model structure and results of tests on the model sensitivity to the input data and to the description of the peat column (peat depth and layer thickness), and demonstrate that HIMMELI outputs realistic fluxes by comparing modeled and measured fluxes at two peatland sites. As HIMMELI describes only the CH4-related processes, not the full carbon cycle, our analysis revealed mechanisms and dependencies that may remain hidden when testing CH4 models connected to complete peatland carbon models, which is usually the case. Our results indicated that (1) the model is flexible and robust and thus suitable for different environments; (2) the simulated CH4 emissions largely depend on the prescribed rate of anoxic respiration; (3) the sensitivity of the total CH4 emission to other input variables is mainly mediated via the concentrations of dissolved gases, in particular, the O2 concentrations that affect the CH4 production and oxidation rates; (4) with given input respiration, the peat column description does not significantly affect the simulated CH4 emissions in this model version.
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| 5. |
- Rinne, Janne, et al.
(author)
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Temporal Variation of Ecosystem Scale Methane Emission From a Boreal Fen in Relation to Temperature, Water Table Position, and Carbon Dioxide Fluxes
- 2018
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In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 32:7, s. 1087-1106
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We have analyzed decade-long methane flux data set from a boreal fen, Siikaneva, together with data on environmental parameters and carbon dioxide exchange. The methane flux showed seasonal cycle but no systematic diel cycle. The highest fluxes were observed in July–August with average value of 73 nmol m−2 s−1. Wintertime fluxes were small but positive, with January–March average of 6.7 nmol m−2 s−1. Daily average methane emission correlated best with peat temperatures at 20–35 cm depths. The second highest correlation was with gross primary production (GPP). The best correspondence between emission algorithm and measured fluxes was found for a variable-slope generalized linear model (r2 = 0.89) with peat temperature at 35 cm depth and GPP as explanatory variables, slopes varying between years. The homogeneity of slope approach indicated that seasonal variation explained 79% of the sum of squares variation of daily average methane emission, the interannual variation in explanatory factors 7.0%, functional change 5.3%, and random variation 9.1%. Significant correlation between interannual variability of growing season methane emission and that of GPP indicates that on interannual time scales GPP controls methane emission variability, crucially for development of process-based methane emission models. Annual methane emission ranged from 6.0 to 14 gC m−2 and was 2.7 ± 0.4% of annual GPP. Over 10-year period methane emission was 18% of net ecosystem exchange as carbon. The weak relation of methane emission to water table position indicates that space-to-time analogy, used to extrapolate spatial chamber data in time, may not be applicable in seasonal time scales.
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| 6. |
- Zhang, Zhen, et al.
(author)
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Characterizing Performance of Freshwater Wetland Methane Models Across Time Scales at FLUXNET-CH4 Sites Using Wavelet Analyses
- 2023
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. - 2169-8953. ; 128:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Process-based land surface models are important tools for estimating global wetland methane (CH4) emissions and projecting their behavior across space and time. So far there are no performance assessments of model responses to drivers at multiple time scales. In this study, we apply wavelet analysis to identify the dominant time scales contributing to model uncertainty in the frequency domain. We evaluate seven wetland models at 23 eddy covariance tower sites. Our study first characterizes site-level patterns of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes (FCH4) at different time scales. A Monte Carlo approach was developed to incorporate flux observation error to avoid misidentification of the time scales that dominate model error. Our results suggest that (a) significant model-observation disagreements are mainly at multi-day time scales (<15 days); (b) most of the models can capture the CH4 variability at monthly and seasonal time scales (>32 days) for the boreal and Arctic tundra wetland sites but have significant bias in variability at seasonal time scales for temperate and tropical/subtropical sites; (c) model errors exhibit increasing power spectrum as time scale increases, indicating that biases at time scales <5 days could contribute to persistent systematic biases on longer time scales; and (d) differences in error pattern are related to model structure (e.g., proxy of CH4 production). Our evaluation suggests the need to accurately replicate FCH4 variability, especially at short time scales, in future wetland CH4 model developments.
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