| 1. |
- Rogan, Fionn, et al.
(author)
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LEAPs and Bounds-an Energy Demand and Constraint Optimised Model of the Irish Energy System
- 2014
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In: Energy Efficiency. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1570-646X .- 1570-6478. ; 7:3, s. 441-466
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper builds a model of energy demand and supply for Ireland with a focus on evaluating, and providing insights for, energy efficiency policies. The demand-side comprises sectoral sub-models, with a detailed bottom-up approach used for the transport and residential sectors and a top-down approach used for the industry and services sectors. The supply side uses the linear programming optimisation features of the Open Source Energy Modelling System applied to electricity generation to calculate the least-cost solution. This paper presents the first national level model developed within the Long Range Energy Alternatives Planning software to combine detailed end-use analysis on the demand side with a cost-minimising optimisation approach for modelling the electricity generation sector. Through three scenarios over the period 2009-2020, the model examines the aggregate impact on energy demand of a selection of current and proposed energy efficiency policies. In 2020, energy demand in the energy efficiency scenario is 8.6 % lower than the reference scenario and 11.1 % lower in the energy efficiency + scenario.
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| 2. |
- Welsch, Manuel, et al.
(author)
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Incorporating flexibility requirements into long-term energy system models - A case study on high levels of renewable electricity penetration in Ireland
- 2014
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0306-2619 .- 1872-9118. ; 135, s. 600-615
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Efforts to meet climate change mitigation and energy security targets spur investments in variable renewable energy sources. Their implications for the operation of power plants are frequently investigated drawing on unit commitment and dispatch models. However, the temporal granularity and operational detail these models consider is commonly omitted in the broader family of long-term energy system models. To compensate this short-coming, these two types of tools have sometimes been 'soft-linked' and harmonised for limited simulation years. This paper assesses an alternative approach. We examine an extended version of an open source energy system model (0SeMOSYS), which is able to capture operating reserve and related investment requirements within a single tool. The implications of these model extensions are quantified through comparison with an Irish case study. That case study examined the effects of linking a long-term energy system model (TIMES) with a unit commitment and dispatch model (PLEXOS). It analysed the year 2020 in detail, applying a yearly temporal resolution that is over 700 times higher than in OSeMOSYS. Without increasing temporal resolution (and computational burden) we show that results of the enhanced OSeMOSYS model converge to results of TIMES and PLEXOS: Investment mismatches decrease from 21.4% to 5.0%. The OSeMOSYS analysis was then extended to 2050 to assess the implications of short-term variability on future capacity investment decisions. When variability was ignored, power system investments in 2050 were found to be 143% lower. This might imply that energy policies derived from such long-term models - of which there are many - may underestimate the costs of introducing variable renewables and thus meeting climate change or energy security targets.
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