| 1. |
- Sherwood, S. C., et al.
(author)
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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
- 2020
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In: Reviews of geophysics. - 8755-1209 .- 1944-9208. ; 58:4
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We assess evidence relevant to Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity per doubling of atmospheric CO2, characterized by an effective sensitivity S. This evidence includes feedback process understanding, the historical climate record, and the paleoclimate record. An S value lower than 2 K is difficult to reconcile with any of the three lines of evidence. The amount of cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum provides strong evidence against values of S greater than 4.5 K. Other lines of evidence in combination also show that this is relatively unlikely. We use a Bayesian approach to produce a probability density function (PDF) for S given all the evidence, including tests of robustness to difficult-to-quantify uncertainties and different priors. The 66% range is 2.6-3.9 K for our Baseline calculation and remains within 2.3-4.5 K under the robustness tests; corresponding 5-95% ranges are 2.3-4.7 K, bounded by 2.0-5.7 K (although such high-confidence ranges should be regarded more cautiously). This indicates a stronger constraint on S than reported in past assessments, by lifting the low end of the range. This narrowing occurs because the three lines of evidence agree and are judged to be largely independent and because of greater confidence in understanding feedback processes and in combining evidence. We identify promising avenues for further narrowing the range in S, in particular using comprehensive models and process understanding to address limitations in the traditional forcing-feedback paradigm for interpreting past changes.
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| 2. |
- Pälike, Heiko, et al.
(author)
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A Cenozoic record of the equatorial Pacific carbonate compensation depth
- 2012
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 488:7413, s. 609-614
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations and climate are regulated on geological timescales by the balance between carbon input from volcanic and metamorphic outgassing and its removal by weathering feedbacks; these feedbacks involve the erosion of silicate rocks and organic-carbon-bearing rocks. The integrated effect of these processes is reflected in the calcium carbonate compensation depth, which is the oceanic depth at which calcium carbonate is dissolved. Here we present a carbonate accumulation record that covers the past 53 million years from a depth transect in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The carbonate compensation depth tracks long-term ocean cooling, deepening from 3.0-3.5 kilometres during the early Cenozoic (approximately 55 million years ago) to 4.6 kilometres at present, consistent with an overall Cenozoic increase in weathering. We find large superimposed fluctuations in carbonate compensation depth during the middle and late Eocene. Using Earth system models, we identify changes in weathering and the mode of organic-carbon delivery as two key processes to explain these large-scale Eocene fluctuations of the carbonate compensation depth.
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| 3. |
- Rogerson, Mike, et al.
(author)
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Enhanced Mediterranean-Atlantic exchange during Atlantic freshening phases
- 2010
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In: Geochemistry Geophysics Geosystems. - : AGU. - 1525-2027. ; 11:8, s. Q08013-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Atlantic-Mediterranean exchange of water at Gibraltar represents a significant heat and freshwater sink for the North Atlantic and is a major control on the heat, salt and freshwater budgets of the Mediterranean Sea. Consequently, an understanding of the response of the exchange system to external changes is vital to a full comprehension of the hydrographic responses in both ocean basins. Here, we use a synthesis of empirical (oxygen isotope, planktonic foraminiferal assemblage) and modeling (analytical and general circulation) approaches to investigate the response of the Gibraltar Exchange system to Atlantic freshening during Heinrich Stadials (HSs). HSs display relatively flat W–E surface hydrographic gradients more comparable to the Late Holocene than the Last Glacial Maximum. This is significant, as it implies a similar state of surface circulation during these periods and a different state during the Last Glacial Maximum. During HS1, the gradient may have collapsed altogether, implying very strong water column stratification and a single thermal and δ18Owater condition in surface water extending from southern Portugal to the eastern Alboran Sea. Together, these observations imply that inflow of Atlantic water into the Mediterranean was significantly increased during HS periods compared to background glacial conditions. Modeling efforts confirm that this is a predictable consequence of freshening North Atlantic surface water with iceberg meltwater and indicate that the enhanced exchange condition would last until the cessation of anomalous freshwater supply into to the northern North Atlantic. The close coupling of dynamics at Gibraltar Exchange with the Atlantic freshwater system provides an explanation for observations of increased Mediterranean Outflow activity during HS periods and also during the last deglaciation. This coupling is also significant to global ocean dynamics, as it causes density enhancement of the Atlantic water column via the Gibraltar Exchange to be inversely related to North Atlantic surface salinity. Consequently, Mediterranean enhancement of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation will be greatest when the overturning itself is at its weakest, a potentially critical negative feedback to Atlantic buoyancy change during times of ice sheet collapse.
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