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- Hanson, C. E., et al.
(author)
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Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project
- 2007
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In: Climatic Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0165-0009 .- 1573-1480. ; 81:Suppl. 1, s. 163-177
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities under-taken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled "Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes" (MICE) - a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes - the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions).
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| 4. |
- Kundzewicz, Z. W., et al.
(author)
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Impacts of climate extremes on activity sectors : stakeholders' perspective
- 2008
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In: Journal of Theoretical and Applied Climatology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0177-798X .- 1434-4483. ; 93:02-jan, s. 117-132
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Significant changes in the climatic system have been observed, which may be attributed to human-enhanced greenhouse effect. Even stronger changes are projected for the future, impacting in an increasing way on human activity sectors. The present contribution, prepared in the framework of the MICE (Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes) Project of the European Union, reviews how climate change may impact on winter tourism in the Alpine region, intense precipitation and flood potential in central Europe, forest damage in Scandinavia and beach holidays in the Mediterranean coast. Impacts are likely to be serious and largely adverse. Due to a lack of adequate information and lack of broadly accepted and reliable mathematical models describing the impact of changes in climate extremes on these activity sectors, it has been found useful to use expert judgement based impact assessment. Accordingly, regional mini-workshops were organized serving as platforms for communication between scientists and stakeholders, vehicles for dissemination of the state-of-the-art of the scientific understanding and for learning stakeholders' view on extreme events, their impacts and the preparedness system. Stakeholders had the opportunity to react to the scientific results and to reflect on their perception of the likely impacts of projected changes in extremes on relevant activity sectors and the potential to adapt and avert adverse consequences. The results reported in this paper present the stakeholders' suggestions for essential information on different extreme event impacts and their needs from science.
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| 5. |
- Leosdottir, M., et al.
(author)
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Improving smoking cessation after myocardial infarction by systematically implementing evidence-based treatment methods : a prospective observational cohort study
- 2021
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In: European Heart Journal. - : Oxford University Press. - 0195-668X .- 1522-9645. ; 42:Suppl. 1, s. 1409-1409
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Background: For smokers who suffer a myocardial infarction (MI), smoking cessation is the most effective measure to reduce recurrent event risk. Still, evidence-based treatment methods for aiding smoking cessation post-MI are underused.Purpose: To compare the odds of smoking cessation at two-months post-MI before and after implementing a set of pre-specified routines for optimization of evidence-based treatment methods for smoking cessation, with start during admission.Methods: Structured routines for early smoking cessation counselling and treatment optimization were implemented at six cardiac rehabilitation (CR) centres in Sweden. The routines included CR nurses providing current smokers hospitalized for acute MI with short consultation, written material, and optimal dosage of nicotine replacement therapy during admission, increasing early prescription of varenicline for eligible patients, and contacting the patients by telephone 3–5 days after discharge, after which usual care CR follow-up commenced. Centres were also encouraged to strive for continuity in nurse-patient care. Patient data was retrieved from the SWEDEHEART registry and medical records. Using logistic regression, we compared the odds for smoking cessation at two-months post-MI for currently smoking patients admitted with MI (a) before (n=188, median age 60 years, 23% females) and (b) after (n=195, median age 60 years, 29% females) routine implementation. Secondary outcomes included adherence to implemented routines and the association of each routine with smoking cessation odds at two-months.Results: In total, 159 (85%) and 179 (92%) of enrolled patients attended the two-month CR follow-up, before and after implementation of the new routines. After implementation, a significantly larger proportion of patients (65% vs 54%) were abstinent from smoking at two-months (crude OR 1.60 [1.04–2.48], p=0.034) (Figure 1). Including only those counselled during admission (n=89), 74% (vs 54%) were abstinent at two-months (crude OR 2.50 [1.42–4.41], p=0.002). After the new routine implementation patients were counselled more frequently during admission (50% vs 6%, p<0.001), prescribed varenicline at discharge or during follow-up (23% vs 7%, p<0.001), and contacted by telephone during the first week post-discharge (18% vs 2%, p<0.001), compared to before implementation. Crude and adjusted associations between each routine and smoking cessation at two-months are shown in Table 1. Entering all routines into the regression model simultaneously, being prescribed varenicline before discharge or during follow-up had the strongest independent association with smoking abstinence at two-months (adjusted OR 4.09 [1.68–10.00], p=0.002).Conclusion: Our results support that readily available methods for aiding smoking cessation can be implemented effectively in routine practice, with possible beneficial effects on smoking cessation for the high-risk group of smoking MI patients.
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- Schlyter, F, et al.
(author)
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A model for peak and width of signaling windows: Ips duplicatus and Chilo partellus pheromone component proportions - Does response have a wider window than production?
- 2001
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In: Journal of Chemical Ecology. - 1573-1561. ; 27:7, s. 1481-1511
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Pheromone communication systems have a reliable signal with a restricted window of amounts and ratios released and perceived. We propose a model based on a Gaussian response profile that allows a quantification of the response peak (location of optimum) and a measure of the peak width (response window). Interpreting the Gaussian curve, fitted by nonlinear regression (NLR), as a standard normal distribution, the peak location equals the mean (mu) and the window width equals 2x the standard deviation (2 sigma). The NLR procedure can provide an objective measure for both peak location and width for a wide range of data sets. Four empirical data sets as well as 10 literature data sets were analyzed. The double-spined spruce engraver, fps duplicatus, was field tested in four populations to find the optimum proportion for attraction to the two male aggregation pheromone components. ipsdienol (Id) and (E)-myrcenol (EM), ranging from 0 to 100% of Id. Tests in Norway and the Czech Republic confirmed the preference of western populations for a blend between 50 and 90% Id. A population in Inner Mongolia showed a preference for traps with the 10 and 50% Id baits. The NLR fitted values for response peak and width (mu; 2 sigma) were: Norway 0.64,0.73 Czech Republic 0.53, 0.73; NE China 0.77,0.29; and Inner Mongolia 0.33, 0.50. The signal produced by Norwegian field-collected males had a narrower window width (2 sigma = 0.12). Males of the maize stem borer, Chilo partellus, were tested in a flight tunnel for their response to variation in the two major female sex pheromone gland components, (Z)-11-hexadecenal and the corresponding alcohol (OH). Variation of the alcohol in seven levels from 2 to 29% OH showed the highest male response for 17% OH. For all behavioral steps, the peak of male response was near mu = 0.14, while the window width fell from 2 sigma = 0.5 to 0.2 for eight sequential behavioral steps from take-off to copulation. Female production had a similar peak location (mu = 0.13) but a narrower width, 2 sigma = 0.14. Literature data from other moth species showed similar patterns, with a wider male response relative to the female production windows. Literature data on response to enantiomer ratios in a hymenopteran and to pheromone amounts in a dipteran were also described by our model. In a bark beetle population (Ips pini), with two hybridizing enantiomeric strains, the production peaks were narrower (0.1) than the response peaks (0.5). Thus, it in general, seems that in the pheromone systems analyzed. the width of the response window (2 sigma = 0.1 to 0.9) is larger than that of the production window (2 sigma = 0.03 to 0.14), irrespective of the sex of the sender.
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| 10. |
- Anderbrant, Olle, et al.
(author)
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Pheromone of the elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera Scolytidae) : stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol reduce interspecific competition
- 2010
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In: Chemoecology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0937-7409 .- 1423-0445. ; 20:3, s. 179-187
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Stereoisomers of 4-methyl-3-heptanol (MH) are pheromone components of several Scolytus bark beetles. The elm bark beetle Scolytus laevis (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) has in previous studies been caught in traps baited with commercial MH containing all four stereoisomers, but the lure has been considered a weak attractant. In this study, we addressed the question whether stereospecific responses by S. laevis to stereoisomers of MH might contribute to its niche separation from other sympatric Scolytus species. Using GC-MS, we analyzed extracts of hindguts and abdomens from male and female S. laevis and the sympatric S. triarmatus. We also tested all four MH-stereoisomers individually and in combinations in the field to determine their role for S. laevis. All four stereoisomers were synthesized via a boronic ester method with 1,2-dicyclohexylethanediol as chiral director. In addition, the (3S,4R)-stereoisomer of MH was prepared through enantioselective, lipase-mediated transesterification of a mixture of the four stereoisomers of MH. Females of both species contained small amounts of syn-MH, and males contained trace amounts of anti-MH. The anti stereoisomer (3R,4S)-MH was attractive to male and female S. laevis, whereas the syn stereoisomer (3S,4S)-MH acted as an inhibitor or deterrent and reduced the catch when added to the attractive isomer. The syn isomer is the main aggregation pheromone component of the larger and sympatric S. scolytus and possibly also of S. triarmatus. The avoidance response of S. laevis to the (3S,4S)-stereoisomer may reduce interspecific competition for host trees.
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