| 1. |
- Lindegarth, Mats, 1965, et al.
(author)
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Testing the Potential for Predictive Modeling and Mapping and Extending Its Use as a Tool for Evaluating Management Scenarios and Economic Valuation in the Baltic Sea (PREHAB)
- 2014
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In: Ambio. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0044-7447 .- 1654-7209. ; 43:1, s. 82-93
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We evaluated performance of species distribution models for predictive mapping, and how models can be used to integrate human pressures into ecological and economic assessments. A selection of 77 biological variables (species, groups of species, and measures of biodiversity) across the Baltic Sea were modeled. Differences among methods, areas, predictor, and response variables were evaluated. Several methods successfully predicted abundance and occurrence of vegetation, invertebrates, fish, and functional aspects of biodiversity. Depth and substrate were among the most important predictors. Models incorporating water clarity were used to predict increasing cover of the brown alga bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and increasing reproduction area of perch Perca fluviatilis, but decreasing reproduction areas for pikeperch Sander lucioperca following successful implementation of the Baltic Sea Action Plan. Despite variability in estimated non-market benefits among countries, such changes were highly valued by citizens in the three Baltic countries investigated. We conclude that predictive models are powerful and useful tools for science-based management of the Baltic Sea.
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| 2. |
- Bergström, Ulf, et al.
(author)
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Evaluating eutrophication management scenarios in the Baltic Sea using species distribution modelling
- 2013
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In: Journal of Applied Ecology. - : Wiley. - 1365-2664 .- 0021-8901. ; 50:3, s. 680-690
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Eutrophication is severely affecting species distributions and ecosystem functioning in coastal areas. Targets for eutrophication reduction have been set in the Baltic Sea Action Plan (BSAP) using Secchi depth, a measure of water transparency, as the main status indicator. Despite the high economic costs involved, the potential effects of this political decision on key species and habitats have not been assessed. In a case study including species central to coastal ecosystem functioning, we modelled the effects of changing Secchi depth on the distribution of bladderwrack Fucus vesiculosus and eelgrass Zostera marina vegetation as well as recruitment areas of the main predatory fish species, perch Perca fluviatilis and pikeperch Sander lucioperca. Specifically, we explored the effects of changing Secchi depth on species distributions under a set of scenarios based on the BSAP, using three fundamentally different modelling techniques: maximum entropy, generalized additive and random forest modelling. Improved Secchi depth (reduced eutrophication) was predicted to cause a substantial increase in the distribution of bladderwrack, while the distribution of eelgrass remained largely unaffected. For the fish, a large increase in perch recruitment areas was predicted and a concurrent decrease in recruitment areas of pikeperch. These changes are likely to have effects on biodiversity and ecosystem services. The three modelling methods exposed differences in the quantitative predictions for species with a weaker coupling to Secchi depth. Qualitatively, however, the results were consistent for all species. Synthesis and applications. We show how ecological effects of environmental policies can be evaluated in an explicit spatial context using species distribution modelling. The model-specific responses to changes in eutrophication status emphasize the importance of using ensemble modelling for exploring how species distributions may respond to alternative management regimes. A pronounced difference in response between species suggests that eutrophication mitigation will have consequences for ecosystem functioning, and thus ecosystem goods and services, by inducing changes in the simple food webs of the Baltic Sea. These model predictions form a basis for spatially explicit cost-benefit estimates under different scenarios, providing valuable information for both decision-makers and the wider society.
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| 3. |
- Eriksson, Britas Klemens, et al.
(author)
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Declines in predatory fish promote bloom-forming macroalgae.
- 2009
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In: Ecological Applications. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 19:8, s. 1975-1988
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the Baltic Sea, increased dominance of ephemeral and bloom-forming algae is presently attributed to increased nutrient loads. Simultaneously, coastal predatory fish are in strong decline. Using field data from nine areas covering a 700-km coastline, we examined whether formation of macroalgal blooms could be linked to the composition of the fish community. We then tested whether predator or nutrient availability could explain the field patterns in two small-scale field experiments, by comparing joint effects on algal net production from nutrient enrichment with agricultural fertilizer and exclusion of larger predatory fish with cages. We also manipulated the presence of invertebrate grazers. The abundance of piscivorous fish had a strong negative correlation with the large-scale distribution of bloom-forming macroalgae. Areas with depleted top-predator communities displayed massive increases in their prey, small-bodied fish, and high covers of ephemeral algae. Combining the results from the two experiments showed that excluding larger piscivorous fish: (1) increased the abundance of small-bodied predatory fish; (2) changed the size distribution of the dominating grazers, decreasing the smaller gastropod scrapers; and (3) increased the net production of ephemeral macroalgae. Effects of removing top predators and nutrient enrichment were similar and additive, together increasing the abundance of ephemeral algae many times. Predator effects depended on invertebrate grazers; in the absence of invertebrates there were no significant effects of predator exclusion on algal production. Our results provide strong support for regional declines of larger predatory fish in the Baltic Sea promoting algal production by decreasing invertebrate grazer control. This highlights the importance of trophic interactions for ecosystem responses to eutrophication. The view emerges that to achieve management goals for water quality we need to consider the interplay between top-down and bottom-up processes in future ecosystem management of marine resources.
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| 4. |
- Hansen, Joakim P., et al.
(author)
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Applying macrophyte community indicators to assess anthropogenic pressures on shallow soft bottoms
- 2014
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In: Hydrobiologia. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0018-8158 .- 1573-5117. ; 738:1, s. 171-189
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Vegetated soft bottoms are under pressure due to a number of anthropogenic stressors, such as coastal exploitation and eutrophication. The ecological value of these biotopes has gained recognition through international conventions and the EU directives, which request methods for assessment of the environmental status of coastal areas. However, currently there is no appropriate method for assessing the status of shallow vegetated soft bottoms in the northern Baltic Sea. Therefore, we developed a macrophyte community index and tested its response in relation to important pressures (eutrophication and boating activity) and natural gradients (topographic openness, depth and salinity) on shallow bays in the northern Baltic Sea. The macrophyte index, and hence the proportion of sensitive to tolerant species, decreased with increasing phosphorus concentration, turbidity and level of boating activity, while the cumulative cover of macrophytes only showed a negative trend in response to increasing turbidity. Juvenile fish abundance was positively related to the index, indicating importance of sensitive macrophyte species for ecosystem functioning. As the index was tested in a wide geographic area, and showed a uniform response across natural gradients, it is a promising tool for assessment of environmental status that may be applied also in other vegetated soft-bottom areas.
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| 5. |
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| 6. |
- Nijkamp, P., et al.
(author)
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Towards a regional science academy : A manifesto
- 2016
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In: Region. - : European Regional Science Association. - 2409-5370. ; 3:1, s. R1-R16
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This Manifesto provides a joint proposal to create a Regional Science Academy as a think-tank support platform for a strategic development of the spatial sciences. The Regional Science Academy is a strategic spatial knowledge catalyst: it acts as a global intellectual powerhouse for new knowledge network initiatives and scholarly views on regions and cities as vital centrepieces of interconnected spatial systems. This contribution highlights its role and presents various activity plans.
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| 7. |
- Snickars, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Habitat selectivity of substrate-spawning fish: modelling requirements for the Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis
- 2010
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In: Marine Ecology Progress Series. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0171-8630 .- 1616-1599. ; 398, s. 235-243
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Substrate spawning fish are believed to be selective in their choice of spawning habitat,yet few studies have shown the relative importance of different characteristics in terms of habitatquality. We used an extensive and detailed dataset to identify the factors that govern both large-scale(1 000 to 100 000 m) and local-scale (10 to 100 m) selection by a substrate-spawning fish, the Eurasian perchPerca fluviatilis L. Distribution of spawning habitat was strongly dependent on habitat characteristicsdefined by substrate, wave exposure, temperature and depth. The most important predictor was thetype of spawning substrate, which generally consisted of different types of vegetation. Substratesproviding rigidity and structural complexity were preferred, despite abundant presence of other substratetypes. Shallow depth and sheltered areas were also selected habitat characteristics. Theresponse to temperature was scale-dependent, with a stronger selection expressed at the local scale.The specific selectivity suggests that spawning patterns can be successfully modelled with sufficientdetail using only a few fundamental environmental variables. Wave exposure and depth are readilyavailable for large-scale spatial predictions, while temperature and substrate require further developmentin most coastal areas. The high specificity of the characteristics determining habitat qualitysuggests that it should be possible to apply this modelling approach for identification and conservationof spawning habitats of Eurasian perch and other substrate-spawning fishes in coastal waters.
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| 8. |
- Snickars, M., et al.
(author)
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Species-environment relationships and potential for distribution modelling in coastal waters
- 2014
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In: Journal of Sea Research. - : Elsevier BV. - 1385-1101 .- 1873-1414. ; 85, s. 116-125
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Due to increasing pressure on the marine environment there is a growing need to understand species-environment relationships. To provide background for prioritising among variables (predictors) for use in distribution models, the relevance of predictors for benthic species was reviewed using the coastal Baltic Sea as a case-study area. Significant relationships for three response groups (fish, macroinvertebrates, macrovegetation) and six predictor categories (bottom topography, biotic features, hydrography, wave exposure, substrate and spatiotemporal variability) were extracted from 145 queried peer-reviewed field-studies covering three decades and six subregions. In addition, the occurrence of interaction among predictors was analysed. Hydrography was most often found in significant relationships, had low level of interaction with other predictors, but also had the most non-significant relationships. Depth and wave exposure were important in all subregions and are readily available, increasing their applicability for cross-regional modelling efforts. Otherwise, effort to model species distributions may prove challenging at larger scale as the relevance of predictors differed among both response groups and regions. Fish and hard bottom macrovegetation have the largest modelling potential, as they are structured by a set of predictors that at the same time are accurately mapped. A general importance of biotic features implies that these need to be accounted for in distribution modelling, but the mapping of most biotic features is challenging, which currently lowers the applicability. The presence of interactions suggests that predictive methods allowing for interactive effects are preferable. Detailing these complexities is important for future distribution modelling.
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| 9. |
- Villnäs, Anna, et al.
(author)
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Template for using biological trait groupings when exploringlarge-scale variation in seafloor multifunctionality
- 2018
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In: Ecological Applications. - : Wiley. - 1051-0761 .- 1939-5582. ; 28:1, s. 78-94
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Understanding large-scale spatial variation in ecosystem properties and associated functionality is key for successful conservation of ecosystems. This study provides a template for how to estimate differences in ecosystem functionality over large spatial scales by using groupings of biological traits. We focus on trait groupings that describe three important benthic ecosystem properties, namely bioturbation, community stability, and juvenile dispersal. Recognizing that groups of traits interact and are constrained within an organism, we statistically define important functional trait subgroups that describe each ecosystem property. The sub-groups are scored according to their weighted ecological impact to gain an overall estimation of the cumulative expression of each ecosystem property at individual sites. Furthermore, by assigning each property a value relative to its observed maximum, and by summing up the individual property values, we offer an estimate of benthic ecosystem multi-functionality. Based on a spatially extensive benthic data set, we were able to identify coastal areas with high and low potential for the considered benthic ecosystem properties and the measure of ecosystem multifunctionality. Importantly, we show that a large part of the spatial variation in functional trait sub-groups and in benthic ecosystem multifunctionality was explained by environmental change. Our results indicate that through this simplification it is possible to estimate the functionality of the seafloor. Such information is vital in marine spatial planning efforts striving to balance the utilization with the preservation of natural resources.
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| 10. |
- Weigel, Benjamin, et al.
(author)
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Long-term progression and drivers of coastal zoobenthos in a changing system
- 2015
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In: Marine Ecology Progress Series. - : Inter-Research Science Center. - 0171-8630 .- 1616-1599. ; 528, s. 141-159
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Coastal zones are facing climate-driven change coupled with escalating eutrophication. With increasing shifts in hydrographic conditions during the past few decades, a focal task is to understand how environmental drivers affect zoobenthic communities, which play a crucial role in ecosystem functioning. By using long-term data, spanning 40 yr (1973 to 2013) in the northern Baltic Sea, we showed a disparity in zoobenthic responses with pronounced changes in community composition and a trend towards decreased biomass in sheltered areas, while biomasses increased in exposed areas of the coastal zone. We used generalized additive modeling to show that bottom oxygen saturation, sea surface temperature and organic load of the sediments were the main environmental drivers behind contrasting patterns in biomass progression. Oxygen saturation alone explained over one third of the deviation in the biomass developments in sheltered areas, while exposed areas were mainly limited by organic content of the sediments. We analyzed high-resolution climate-scenario simulations, following the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios for the Baltic Sea region in combination with different nutrient load scenarios, for the end of the 21st century. The scenario outcomes showed negative trends in bottom oxygen concentrations throughout the coastal and archipelago zone along with overall increasing temperatures and primary production, and decreasing salinity. Our results suggest that these projected future conditions will strengthen the observed pattern in decreasing zoobenthic production in the immediate coastal zones. Moreover, the potential intensification of unfavorable conditions ex-panding seaward may lead to an expansion of biomass loss to more exposed sites.
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