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Search: WFRF:(Stacke T.)

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1.
  • Kaminski, T., et al. (author)
  • The BETHY/JSBACH Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System: experiences and challenges
  • 2013
  • In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Biogeosciences. - : American Geophysical Union (AGU). - 2169-8953. ; 118:4, s. 1414-1426
  • Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • We present the concept of the Carbon Cycle Data Assimilation System and describe its evolution over the last two decades from an assimilation system around a simple diagnostic model of the terrestrial biosphere to a system for the calibration and initialization of the land component of a comprehensive Earth system model. We critically review the capability of this modeling framework to integrate multiple data streams, to assess their mutual consistency and with the model, to reduce uncertainties in the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, to provide, in a traceable manner, reanalysis products with documented uncertainty, and to assist the design of the observational network. We highlight some of the challenges we met and experience we gained, give recommendations for operating the system, and suggest directions for future development.
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2.
  • Schewe, Jacob, et al. (author)
  • State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes
  • 2019
  • In: Nature Communications. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2041-1723. ; 10
  • Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
    • Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought.
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