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- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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3. |
- Sanchez, Erlan, et al.
(author)
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Association of plasma biomarkers with cognition, cognitive decline, and daily function across and within neurodegenerative diseases: Results from the Ontario Neurodegenerative Disease Research Initiative
- 2024
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In: Alzheimer's and Dementia. - 1552-5260 .- 1552-5279. ; 20:3, s. 1753-1770
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- INTRODUCTION: We investigated whether novel plasma biomarkers are associated with cognition, cognitive decline, and functional independence in activities of daily living across and within neurodegenerative diseases. METHODS: Glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP), neurofilament light chain (NfL), phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181 and amyloid beta (Aβ)42/40 were measured using ultra-sensitive Simoa immunoassays in 44 healthy controls and 480 participants diagnosed with Alzheimer's disease/mild cognitive impairment (AD/MCI), Parkinson's disease (PD), frontotemporal dementia (FTD) spectrum disorders, or cerebrovascular disease (CVD). RESULTS: GFAP, NfL, and/or p-tau181 were elevated among all diseases compared to controls, and were broadly associated with worse baseline cognitive performance, greater cognitive decline, and/or lower functional independence. While GFAP, NfL, and p-tau181 were highly predictive across diseases, p-tau181 was more specific to the AD/MCI cohort. Sparse associations were found in the FTD and CVD cohorts and for Aβ42/40. DISCUSSION: GFAP, NfL, and p-tau181 are valuable predictors of cognition and function across common neurodegenerative diseases, and may be useful in specialized clinics and clinical trials.
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5. |
- Musunuru, Kiran, et al.
(author)
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From noncoding variant to phenotype via SORT1 at the 1p13 cholesterol locus
- 2010
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 466:7307, s. 2-714
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Recent genome-wide association studies (GWASs) have identified a locus on chromosome 1p13 strongly associated with both plasma low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and myocardial infarction (MI) in humans. Here we show through a series of studies in human cohorts and human-derived hepatocytes that a common noncoding polymorphism at the 1p13 locus, rs12740374, creates a C/EBP (CCAAT/enhancer binding protein) transcription factor binding site and alters the hepatic expression of the SORT1 gene. With small interfering RNA (siRNA) knockdown and viral overexpression in mouse liver, we demonstrate that Sort1 alters plasma LDL-C and very low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) particle levels by modulating hepatic VLDL secretion. Thus, we provide functional evidence for a novel regulatory pathway for lipoprotein metabolism and suggest that modulation of this pathway may alter risk for MI in humans. We also demonstrate that common noncoding DNA variants identified by GWASs can directly contribute to clinical phenotypes.
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