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| 2. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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- Abbafati, Cristiana, et al.
(author)
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- 2020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 4. |
- Pironi, L., et al.
(author)
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COVID-19 infection in patients on long-term home parenteral nutrition for chronic intestinal failure
- 2023
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In: Clinical Nutrition Espen. - : Elsevier BV. - 2405-4577. ; 55, s. 212-220
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background and aims: To investigate the incidence and the severity of COVID-19 infection in patients enrolled in the database for home parenteral nutrition (HPN) for chronic intestinal failure (CIF) of the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN). Methods: Period of observation: March 1st, 2020 March 1st, 2021. Inclusion criteria: patients included in the database since 2015 and still receiving HPN on March 1st, 2020 as well as new patients included in the database during the period of observation. Data related to the previous 12 months and recorded on March 1st 2021: 1) occurrence of COVID-19 infection since the beginning of the pandemic (yes, no, unknown); 2) infection severity (asymptomatic; mild, no-hospitalization; moderate, hospitalization no -ICU; severe, hospitalization in ICU); 3) vaccinated against COVID-19 (yes, no, unknown); 4) patient outcome on March 1st 2021: still on HPN, weaned off HPN, deceased, lost to follow up.Results: Sixty-eight centres from 23 countries included 4680 patients. Data on COVID-19 were available for 55.1% of patients. The cumulative incidence of infection was 9.6% in the total group and ranged from 0% to 21.9% in the cohorts of individual countries. Infection severity was reported as: asymptomatic 26.7%, mild 32.0%, moderate 36.0%, severe 5.3%. Vaccination status was unknown in 62.0% of patients, non-vaccinated 25.2%, vaccinated 12.8%. Patient outcome was reported as: still on HPN 78.6%, weaned off HPN 10.6%, deceased 9.7%, lost to follow up 1.1%. A higher incidence of infection (p = 0.04), greater severity of infection (p < 0.001) and a lower vaccination percentage (p = 0.01) were observed in deceased patients. In COVID-19 infected patients, deaths due to infection accounted for 42.8% of total deaths.Conclusions: In patients on HPN for CIF, the incidence of COVID-19 infection differed greatly among countries. Although the majority of cases were reported to be asymptomatic or have mild symptoms only, COVID-19 was reported to be fatal in a significant proportion of infected patients. Lack of vacci-nation was associated with a higher risk of death.(c) 2023 European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 5. |
- Mingardo, E, et al.
(author)
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A genome-wide association study with tissue transcriptomics identifies genetic drivers for classic bladder exstrophy
- 2022
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In: Communications biology. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2399-3642. ; 5:1, s. 1203-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Classic bladder exstrophy represents the most severe end of all human congenital anomalies of the kidney and urinary tract and is associated with bladder cancer susceptibility. Previous genetic studies identified one locus to be involved in classic bladder exstrophy, but were limited to a restrict number of cohort. Here we show the largest classic bladder exstrophy genome-wide association analysis to date where we identify eight genome-wide significant loci, seven of which are novel. In these regions reside ten coding and four non-coding genes. Among the coding genes is EFNA1, strongly expressed in mouse embryonic genital tubercle, urethra, and primitive bladder. Re-sequence of EFNA1 in the investigated classic bladder exstrophy cohort of our study displays an enrichment of rare protein altering variants. We show that all coding genes are expressed and/or significantly regulated in both mouse and human embryonic developmental bladder stages. Furthermore, nine of the coding genes residing in the regions of genome-wide significance are differentially expressed in bladder cancers. Our data suggest genetic drivers for classic bladder exstrophy, as well as a possible role for these drivers to relevant bladder cancer susceptibility.
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- Pearman, Peter B., et al.
(author)
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Monitoring of species' genetic diversity in Europe varies greatly and overlooks potential climate change impacts
- 2024
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In: Nature Ecology & Evolution. - : Springer Nature. - 2397-334X. ; 8:2, s. 267-281
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Genetic monitoring of populations currently attracts interest in the context of the Convention on Biological Diversity but needs long-term planning and investments. However, genetic diversity has been largely neglected in biodiversity monitoring, and when addressed, it is treated separately, detached from other conservation issues, such as habitat alteration due to climate change. We report an accounting of efforts to monitor population genetic diversity in Europe (genetic monitoring effort, GME), the evaluation of which can help guide future capacity building and collaboration towards areas most in need of expanded monitoring. Overlaying GME with areas where the ranges of selected species of conservation interest approach current and future climate niche limits helps identify whether GME coincides with anticipated climate change effects on biodiversity. Our analysis suggests that country area, financial resources and conservation policy influence GME, high values of which only partially match species' joint patterns of limits to suitable climatic conditions. Populations at trailing climatic niche margins probably hold genetic diversity that is important for adaptation to changing climate. Our results illuminate the need in Europe for expanded investment in genetic monitoring across climate gradients occupied by focal species, a need arguably greatest in southeastern European countries. This need could be met in part by expanding the European Union's Birds and Habitats Directives to fully address the conservation and monitoring of genetic diversity. Comparing data on genetic monitoring efforts across Europe with the distributions of areas at species' climatic niche margins, the authors show that monitoring efforts should be expanded to populations at trailing niche margins to include genetic variation that may prove important for adaptation to ongoing climate warming.
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| 9. |
- Brito-Zerón, Pilar, et al.
(author)
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Influence of geolocation and ethnicity on the phenotypic expression of primary Sjögren's syndrome at diagnosis in 8310 patients : a cross-sectional study from the Big Data Sjögren Project Consortium
- 2017
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In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 76:6, s. 1042-1050
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVES: To analyse the influence of geolocation and ethnicity on the clinical presentation of primary Sjögren's syndrome (SjS) at diagnosis.METHODS: The Big Data Sjögren Project Consortium is an international, multicentre registry designed in 2014. By January 2016, 20 centres from five continents were participating. Multivariable logistic regression analyses were performed.RESULTS: We included 7748 women (93%) and 562 men (7%), with a mean age at diagnosis of primary SjS of 53 years. Ethnicity data were available for 7884 patients (95%): 6174 patients (78%) were white, 1066 patients (14%) were Asian, 393 patients (5%) were Hispanic, 104 patients (1%) were black/African-American and 147 patients (2%) were of other ethnicities. SjS was diagnosed a mean of 7 years earlier in black/African-American compared with white patients; the female-to-male ratio was highest in Asian patients (27:1) and lowest in black/African-American patients (7:1); the prevalence of sicca symptoms was lowest in Asian patients; a higher frequency of positive salivary biopsy was found in Hispanic and white patients. A north-south gradient was found with respect to a lower frequency of ocular involvement in northern countries for dry eyes and abnormal ocular tests in Europe (OR 0.46 and 0.44, respectively) and Asia (OR 0.18 and 0.49, respectively) compared with southern countries. Higher frequencies of antinuclear antibodies (ANAs) were reported in northern countries in America (OR=1.48) and Asia (OR=3.80) while, in Europe, northern countries had lowest frequencies of ANAs (OR=0.67) and Ro/La (OR=0.69).CONCLUSIONS: This study provides the first evidence of a strong influence of geolocation and ethnicity on the phenotype of primary SjS at diagnosis.
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| 10. |
- Marzal, Alfonso, et al.
(author)
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Diversity, Loss, and Gain of Malaria Parasites in a Globally Invasive Bird.
- 2011
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In: PLoS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 6:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Invasive species can displace natives, and thus identifying the traits that make aliens successful is crucial for predicting and preventing biodiversity loss. Pathogens may play an important role in the invasive process, facilitating colonization of their hosts in new continents and islands. According to the Novel Weapon Hypothesis, colonizers may out-compete local native species by bringing with them novel pathogens to which native species are not adapted. In contrast, the Enemy Release Hypothesis suggests that flourishing colonizers are successful because they have left their pathogens behind. To assess the role of avian malaria and related haemosporidian parasites in the global spread of a common invasive bird, we examined the prevalence and genetic diversity of haemosporidian parasites (order Haemosporida, genera Plasmodium and Haemoproteus) infecting house sparrows (Passer domesticus). We sampled house sparrows (N = 1820) from 58 locations on 6 continents. All the samples were tested using PCR-based methods; blood films from the PCR-positive birds were examined microscopically to identify parasite species. The results show that haemosporidian parasites in the house sparrows' native range are replaced by species from local host-generalist parasite fauna in the alien environments of North and South America. Furthermore, sparrows in colonized regions displayed a lower diversity and prevalence of parasite infections. Because the house sparrow lost its native parasites when colonizing the American continents, the release from these natural enemies may have facilitated its invasion in the last two centuries. Our findings therefore reject the Novel Weapon Hypothesis and are concordant with the Enemy Release Hypothesis.
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