| 1. |
- Flood, Victoria A., et al.
(author)
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Evaluating modelled tropospheric columns of CH4, CO, and O3 in the Arctic using ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) measurements
- 2024
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 24:2, s. 1079-1118
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This study evaluates tropospheric columns of methane, carbon monoxide, and ozone in the Arctic simulated by 11 models. The Arctic is warming at nearly 4 times the global average rate, and with changing emissions in and near the region, it is important to understand Arctic atmospheric composition and how it is changing. Both measurements and modelling of air pollution in the Arctic are difficult, making model validation with local measurements valuable. Evaluations are performed using data from five high-latitude ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometers in the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). The models were selected as part of the 2021 Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) report on short-lived climate forcers. This work augments the model-measurement comparisons presented in that report by including a new data source: column-integrated FTIR measurements, whose spatial and temporal footprint is more representative of the free troposphere than in situ and satellite measurements. Mixing ratios of trace gases are modelled at 3-hourly intervals by CESM, CMAM, DEHM, EMEP MSC-W, GEM-MACH, GEOS-Chem, MATCH, MATCH-SALSA, MRI-ESM2, UKESM1, and WRF-Chem for the years 2008, 2009, 2014, and 2015. The comparisons focus on the troposphere (0-7km partial columns) at Eureka, Canada; Thule, Greenland; Ny Ålesund, Norway; Kiruna, Sweden; and Harestua, Norway. Overall, the models are biased low in the tropospheric column, on average by -9.7% for CH4, -21% for CO, and -18% for O3. Results for CH4 are relatively consistent across the 4 years, whereas CO has a maximum negative bias in the spring and minimum in the summer and O3 has a maximum difference centered around the summer. The average differences for the models are within the FTIR uncertainties for approximately 15% of the model-location comparisons.
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| 2. |
- Aas, W., et al.
(author)
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Lessons learnt from the first EMEP intensive measurement periods
- 2012
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 12:17, s. 8073-8094
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The first EMEP intensive measurement periods were held in June 2006 and January 2007. The measurements aimed to characterize the aerosol chemical compositions, including the gas/aerosol partitioning of inorganic compounds. The measurement program during these periods included daily or hourly measurements of the secondary inorganic components, with additional measurements of elemental- and organic carbon (EC and OC) and mineral dust in PM1, PM2.5 and PM10. These measurements have provided extended knowledge regarding the composition of particulate matter and the temporal and spatial variability of PM, as well as an extended database for the assessment of chemical transport models. This paper summarise the first experiences of making use of measurements from the first EMEP intensive measurement periods along with EMEP model results from the updated model version to characterise aerosol composition. We investigated how the PM chemical composition varies between the summer and the winter month and geographically. The observation and model data are in general agreement regarding the main features of PM10 and PM2.5 composition and the relative contribution of different components, though the EMEP model tends to give slightly lower estimates of PM10 and PM2.5 compared to measurements. The intensive measurement data has identified areas where improvements are needed. Hourly concurrent measurements of gaseous and particulate components for the first time facilitated testing of modelled diurnal variability of the gas/aerosol partitioning of nitrogen species. In general, the modelled diurnal cycles of nitrate and ammonium aerosols are in fair agreement with the measurements, but the diurnal variability of ammonia is not well captured. The largest differences between model and observations of aerosol mass are seen in Italy during winter, which to a large extent may be explained by an underestimation of residential wood burning sources. It should be noted that both primary and secondary OC has been included in the calculations for the first time, showing promising results. Mineral dust is important, especially in southern Europe, and the model seems to capture the dust episodes well. The lack of measurements of mineral dust hampers the possibility for model evaluation for this highly uncertain PM component. There are also lessons learnt regarding improved measurements for future intensive periods. There is a need for increased comparability between the measurements at different sites. For the nitrogen compounds it is clear that more measurements using artefact free methods based on continuous measurement methods and/or denuders are needed. For EC/OC, a reference methodology (both in field and laboratory) was lacking during these periods giving problems with comparability, though measurement protocols have recently been established and these should be followed by the Parties to the EMEP Protocol. For measurements with no defined protocols, it might be a good solution to use centralised laboratories to ensure comparability across the network. To cope with the introduction of these new measurements, new reporting guidelines have been developed to ensure that all proper information about the methodologies and data quality is given.
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| 3. |
- Aas, Wenche, et al.
(author)
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Trends in Air Pollution in Europe, 2000–2019
- 2024
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In: Aerosol and Air Quality Research. - 2071-1409 .- 1680-8584. ; 24:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper encompasses an assessment of air pollution trends in rural environments in Europe over the 2000–2019 period, benefiting from extensive long-term observational data from the EMEP monitoring network and EMEP MSC-W model computations. The trends in pollutant concentrations align with the decreasing emission patterns observed throughout Europe. Annual average concentrations of sulfur dioxide, particulate sulfate, and sulfur wet deposition have shown consistent declines of 3–4% annually since 2000. Similarly, oxidized nitrogen species have markedly decreased across Europe, with an annual reduction of 1.5–2% in nitrogen dioxide concentrations, total nitrate in the air, and oxidized nitrogen deposition. Notably, emission reductions and model predictions appear to slightly surpass the observed declines in sulfur and oxidized nitrogen, indicating a potential overestimation of reported emission reductions. Ammonia emissions have decreased less compared to other pollutants since 2000. Significant reductions in particulate ammonium have however, been achieved due to the impact of reductions in SOx and NOx emissions. For ground level ozone, both the observed and modelled peak levels in summer show declining trends, although the observed decline is smaller than modelled. There have been substantial annual reductions of 1.8% and 2.4% in the concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5, respectively. Elemental carbon has seen a reduction of approximately 4.5% per year since 2000. A similar reduction for organic carbon is only seen in winter when primary anthropogenic sources dominate. The observed improvements in European air quality emphasize the importance of comprehensive legislations to mitigate emissions.
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| 4. |
- Simpson, David, 1961, et al.
(author)
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The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model - technical description
- 2012
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 12:16, s. 7825-7865
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-West (MSC-W) of the European Monitoring and Evaluation Programme (EMEP) has been performing model calculations in support of the Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) for more than 30 years. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model is still one of the key tools within European air pollution policy assessments. Traditionally, the model has covered all of Europe with a resolution of about 50 km x 50 km, and extending vertically from ground level to the tropopause (100 hPa). The model has changed extensively over the last ten years, however, with flexible processing of chemical schemes, meteorological inputs, and with nesting capability: the code is now applied on scales ranging from local (ca. 5 km grid size) to global (with 1 degree resolution). The model is used to simulate photo-oxidants and both inorganic and organic aerosols. In 2008 the EMEP model was released for the first time as public domain code, along with all required input data for model runs for one year. The second release of the EMEP MSC-W model became available in mid 2011, and a new release is targeted for summer 2012. This publication is in-tended to document this third release of the EMEP MSC-W model. The model formulations are given, along with details of input data-sets which are used, and a brief background on some of the choices made in the formulation is presented. The model code itself is available at www.emep.int, along with the data required to run for a full year over Europe.
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| 5. |
- von Salzen, Knut, et al.
(author)
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Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming
- 2022
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In: Communications Earth & Environment. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2662-4435. ; 3:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.
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| 6. |
- Ciarelli, Giancarlo, et al.
(author)
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Trends of inorganic and organic aerosols and precursor gases in Europe: Insights from the EURODELTA multi-model experiment over the 1990-2010 period
- 2019
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 12:12, s. 4923-4954
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends (EDT) modeling experiment, several chemical transport models (CTMs) were applied for the 1990-2010 period to investigate air quality changes in Europe as well as the capability of the models to reproduce observed long-term air quality trends. Five CTMs have provided modeled air quality data for 21 continuous years in Europe using emission scenarios prepared by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis/Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (IIASA/GAINS) and corresponding year-by-year meteorology derived from ERA-Interim global reanalysis. For this study, long-term observations of particle sulfate (SO2 4-), total nitrate (TNO3), total ammonium (TNHx) as well as sulfur dioxide (SO2) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for multiple sites in Europe were used to evaluate the model results. The trend analysis was performed for the full 21 years (referred to as PT) but also for two 11-year subperiods: 1990-2000 (referred to as P1) and 2000-2010 (referred to as P2). The experiment revealed that the models were able to reproduce the faster decline in observed SO2 concentrations during the first decade, i.e., 1990-2000, with a 64%-76% mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all the models) versus an 82% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations. During the second decade (P2), the models estimated a mean relative reduction in SO2 concentrations of about 34%-54%, which was also in line with that observed (47%). Comparisons of observed and modeled NO2 trends revealed a mean relative decrease of 25% and between 19% and 23% (range of all the models) during the P1 period, and 12% and between 22% and 26% (range of all the models) during the P2 period, respectively. Comparisons of observed and modeled trends in SO4 2- concentrations during the P1 period indicated that the models were able to reproduce the observed trends at most of the sites, with a 42%-54% mean relative reduction indicated by the EDT experiment (range of all models) versus a 57% mean relative reduction in observed concentrations and with good performance also during the P2 and PT periods, even though all the models overpredicted the number of statistically significant decreasing trends during the P2 period. Moreover, especially during the P1 period, both modeled and observational data indicated smaller reductions in SO42- concentrations compared with their gas-phase precursor (i.e., SO2), which could be mainly attributed to increased oxidant levels and pH-dependent cloud chemistry. An analysis of the trends in TNO3 concentrations indicated a 28%-39% and 29% mean relative reduction in TNO3 concentrations for the full period for model data (range of all the models) and observations, respectively. Further analysis of the trends in modeled HNO3 and particle nitrate (NO-3 ) concentrations revealed that the relative reduction in HNO3 was larger than that for NO-3 during the P1 period, which was mainly attributed to an increased availability of "free ammonia". By contrast, trends in modeled HNO3 and NO-3 concentrations were more comparable during the P2 period. Also, trends of TNHx concentrations were, in general, underpredicted by all models, with worse performance for the P1 period than for P2. Trends in modeled anthropogenic and biogenic secondary organic aerosol (ASOA and BSOA) concentrations together with the trends in available emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) were also investigated. A strong decrease in ASOA was indicated by all the models, following the reduction in anthropogenic non-methane VOC (NMVOC) precursors. Biogenic emission data provided by the modeling teams indicated a few areas with statistically significant increase in isoprene emissions and monoterpene emissions during the 1990-2010 period over Fennoscandia and eastern European regions (i.e., around 14 %-27 %), which was mainly attributed to the increase of surface temperature. However, the modeled BSOA concentrations did not linearly follow the increase in biogenic emissions. Finally, a comprehensive evaluation against positive matrix factorization (PMF) data, available during the second period (P2) at various European sites, revealed a systematic underestimation of the modeled SOA fractions of a factor of 3 to 11, on average, most likely because of missing SOA precursors and formation pathways, with reduced biases for the models that accounted for chemical aging of semi-volatile SOA components in the atmosphere.
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| 7. |
- Colette, Augustin, et al.
(author)
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EURODELTA-Trends, a multi-model experiment of air quality hindcast in Europe over 1990–2010
- 2017
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 10:9, s. 3255-3276
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The EURODELTA-Trends multi-model chemistry-transport experiment has been designed to facilitate a better understanding of the evolution of air pollution and its drivers for the period 1990–2010 in Europe. The main objective of the experiment is to assess the efficiency of air pollutant emissions mitigation measures in improving regional-scale air quality. The present paper formulates the main scientific questions and policy issues being addressed by the EURODELTA-Trends modelling experiment with an emphasis on how the design and technical features of the modelling experiment answer these questions. The experiment is designed in three tiers, with increasing degrees of computational demand in order to facilitate the participation of as many modelling teams as possible. The basic experiment consists of simulations for the years 1990, 2000, and 2010. Sensitivity analysis for the same three years using various combinations of (i) anthropogenic emissions, (ii) chemical boundary conditions, and (iii) meteorology complements it. The most demanding tier consists of two complete time series from 1990 to 2010, simulated using either time-varying emissions for corresponding years or constant emissions. Eight chemistry-transport models have contributed with calculation results to at least one experiment tier, and five models have – to date – completed the full set of simulations (and 21-year trend calculations have been performed by four models). The modelling results are publicly available for further use by the scientific community. The main expected outcomes are (i) an evaluation of the models' performances for the three reference years, (ii) an evaluation of the skill of the models in capturing observed air pollution trends for the 1990–2010 time period, (iii) attribution analyses of the respective role of driving factors (e.g. emissions, boundary conditions, meteorology), (iv) a dataset based on a multi-model approach, to provide more robust model results for use in impact studies related to human health, ecosystem, and radiative forcing.
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| 8. |
- Jeričević, Amela, et al.
(author)
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The assessment of transboundary and regional air pollution due to particles
- 2017
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In: Airborne Particles: Origin, Emissions and Health Impacts. ; , s. 75-103
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Elevated atmospheric particulate matter concentrations are associated with significant adverse health effects, affect ecosystems, influence visibility and cloud formation in the atmosphere and play an important role in climate change. Air quality modelling makes the connection between the design of effective mitigation strategies and knowledge of air pollutant sources. Transboundary and regional air quality models are one of the main scientific and policy tools used for the air quality assessment including particulate matter (PM). As sources outside cities often contribute significantly to local air pollution, many European cities will be unable to meet WHO guideline levels for air pollutants only by local action. Regional models resolve complex chemical processes of formation of secondary PM providing the possibility to identify the key mechanisms in their formation. Modelling results are primarily used to identify the contribution of the regional anthropogenic and natural emission sources of air pollution to the local levels, and to ensure high quality data for decision making that would jointly with the adequate measurements allow for the implementation of effective measures for air pollution reduction. The aim of this chapter is to provide an overview of transboundary and regional modelling of air pollution due to PM as well as the assessment of rural background PM measurements. Within this chapter regional model capabilities including input data (emissions, meteorology etc.) are discussed with focus on two widely applied atmospheric chemistry models EMEP and WRF/Chem as well as trajectory model Hysplit. Finally, the systematic review of some recent scientific papers focused on PM simulation and intercomparison of different models enabled the identification of unresolved scientific issues in regional PM simulations with atmospheric chemistry models.
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| 9. |
- Marchetto, Aldo, et al.
(author)
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Good Agreement Between Modeled and Measured Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition in Europe, in Spite of Marked Differences in Some Sites
- 2021
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In: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 9
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Atmospheric nitrogen and sulfur deposition is an important effect of atmospheric pollution and may affect forest ecosystems positively, for example enhancing tree growth, or negatively, for example causing acidification, eutrophication, cation depletion in soil or nutritional imbalances in trees. To assess and design measures to reduce the negative impacts of deposition, a good estimate of the deposition amount is needed, either by direct measurement or by modeling. In order to evaluate the precision of both approaches and to identify possible improvements, we compared the deposition estimates obtained using an Eulerian model with the measurements performed by two large independent networks covering most of Europe. The results are in good agreement (bias <25%) for sulfate and nitrate open field deposition, while larger differences are more evident for ammonium deposition, likely due to the greater influence of local ammonia sources. Modeled sulfur total deposition compares well with throughfall deposition measured in forest plots, while the estimate of nitrogen deposition is affected by the tree canopy. The geographical distribution of pollutant deposition and of outlier sites where model and measurements show larger differences are discussed.
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| 10. |
- Otero, Noelia, et al.
(author)
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A multi-model comparison of meteorological drivers of surface ozone over Europe
- 2018
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In: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1680-7316 .- 1680-7324. ; 18:16, s. 12269-12288
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The implementation of European emission abatement strategies has led to a significant reduction in the emissions of ozone precursors during the last decade. Ground-level ozone is also influenced by meteorological factors such as temperature, which exhibit interannual variability and are expected to change in the future. The impacts of climate change on air quality are usually investigated through air-quality models that simulate interactions between emissions, meteorology and chemistry. Within a multi-model assessment, this study aims to better understand how air-quality models represent the relationship between meteorological variables and surface ozone concentrations over Europe. A multiple linear regression (MLR) approach is applied to observed and modelled time series across 10 European regions in springtime and summertime for the period of 2000-2010 for both models and observations. Overall, the air-quality models are in better agreement with observations in summertime than in springtime and particularly in certain regions, such as France, central Europe or eastern Europe, where local meteorological variables show a strong influence on surface ozone concentrations. Larger discrepancies are found for the southern regions, such as the Balkans, the Iberian Peninsula and the Mediterranean basin, especially in springtime. We show that the air-quality models do not properly reproduce the sensitivity of surface ozone to some of the main meteorological drivers, such as maximum temperature, relative humidity and surface solar radiation. Specifically, all air-quality models show more limitations in capturing the strength of the ozone-relative-humidity relationship detected in the observed time series in most of the regions, for both seasons. Here, we speculate that dry-deposition schemes in the air-quality models might play an essential role in capturing this relationship. We further quantify the relationship between ozone and maximum temperature (m(o3-T), climate penalty) in observations and air-quality models. In summertime, most of the air-quality models are able to reproduce the observed climate penalty reasonably well in certain regions such as France, central Europe and northern Italy. However, larger discrepancies are found in springtime, where air-quality models tend to overestimate the magnitude of the observed climate penalty.
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