| 1. |
- DeCarolis, Joseph, et al.
(author)
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Formalizing best practice for energy system optimization modelling
- 2017
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In: Applied Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 1872-9118 .- 0306-2619. ; 194, s. 184-198
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Energy system optimization models (ESOMs) are widely used to generate insight that informs energy and environmental policy. Using ESOMs to produce policy-relevant insight requires significant modeler judgement, yet little formal guidance exists on how to conduct analysis with ESOMs. To address this shortcoming, we draw on our collective modelling experience and conduct an extensive literature review to formalize best practice for energy system optimization modelling. We begin by articulating a set of overarching principles that can be used to guide ESOM-based analysis. To help operationalize the guiding principles, we outline and explain critical steps in the modelling process, including how to formulate research questions, set spatio-temporal boundaries, consider appropriate model features, conduct and refine the analysis, quantify uncertainty, and communicate insights. We highlight the need to develop and refine formal guidance on ESOM application, which comes at a critical time as ESOMs are being used to inform national climate targets.
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| 2. |
- Stenström, Oscar, 1996, et al.
(author)
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A robust investment decision to deploy bioenergy carbon capture and storage : exploring the case of Stockholm Exergi
- 2024
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In: Frontiers in Energy Research. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-598X. ; 11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The upscaling of novel carbon dioxide removal, such as bioenergy carbon capture and storage (BECCS), to gigatonne scales is an urgent priority if global warming is to be limited to well below 2 °C. But political, economic, social, technological, environmental and regulatory uncertainty permeates BECCS projects and deters investors. To address this, we explore options to improve the robustness of BECCS deployment strategies in the face of multi-dimensional uncertainties. We apply Dynamic Adaptive Planning (DAP) through expert interviews and Robust Decision Making (RDM) through exploratory modelling, two decision making under deep uncertainty methods, to the case of Stockholm Exergi, an early mover aiming to deploy BECCS at a combined heat and power plant in the capital of Sweden. The main contributions of the research are to 1) illustrate how a quantification of robustness against uncertainty can support an investment decision to deploy BECCS 2) comprehensively cover uncertain vulnerabilities and opportunities of deploying BECCS, and 3) identify critical scenarios and adaptations to manage these uncertainties. The main conclusions are: investing in BECCS is relatively robust if assessing performance across many scenarios and if comparing the worst-cases of either investing, or not doing so. Not investing could miss out on up to € 3.8 billion in terms of net present value. The critical uncertainties of BECCS can be managed by strengthening biomass sustainability strategies and by gaining support for negative emission trading regulation on carbon markets, e.g., voluntary or Paris Agreement Article 6. Even in vulnerable scenarios of average electricity prices above 82 €/MWh, if trading regulation is implemented before 2030 and if negative emission prices exceed 151 €/CO2, investing in BECCS performs better than not doing so in 96% of cases. We suggest that facility-level parameters and cost-reductions are of little importance for BECCS investments and upscaling. It is regulatory certainty of operating revenues, e.g., through negative emission markets, that needs to be provided by policymakers.
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| 3. |
- Eggimann, Sven, et al.
(author)
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How weather affects energy demand variability in the transition towards sustainable heating
- 2020
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In: Energy. - : Elsevier BV. - 0360-5442. ; 195
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Electrification of heat will impact demands on power systems, potentially increasing sensitivity to weather variability. We have developed a spatio-temporal methodology for assessing electricity demand in the context of weather variability. We analyse varying levels of electrification of heat in the United Kingdom and simulate local weather impacts with an ensemble of 100 weather realisations. Across the scenarios, the maximum simulated national electricity peak demand doubles compared to today. Assuming current weather pattern, the weather-induced variability in electricity peak is projected to range from 6.1-7.8 GW (10.2-15.2% of mean peak demand) in 2020 to 6.2-14.6 GW (9.8-22.2% of mean peak demand) in 2050. We find that future weather may exacerbate the impact of electrification of heat on peak demand. However, socio-economic uncertainty predominates weather-induced variability. Electrification of heat without reducing heating demands will result in dramatic increases in peak electricity demand as well as increased exposure to weather effects. Regions experiencing a combined increase in peak demand and weather variability will likely prove to be particularly challenging for balancing demand and supply. Switching to alternative fuels such as hydrogen or measures to lower heating demand reduces the need for additional peak electricity capacity as well as mitigating impacts of extreme weather events.
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| 4. |
- Masood, Talha Bin, et al.
(author)
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An Overview of the Topology ToolKit
- 2021
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In: Topological Methods in Data Analysis and Visualization VI. - Cham : Springer. - 9783030835002 - 9783030834999 ; , s. 327-342
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Book chapter (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This software paper gives an overview of the features supported by the Topology ToolKitTopology ToolKit (TTK), which is an  Open-sourceopen-source library for  Topological data analysistopological data analysis (TDA). TTK implements, in a generic and efficient way, a substantial collection of reference algorithms in TDA. Since its initial public release in 2017, both its user and developer bases have grown, resulting in a significant increase in the number of supported features. In contrast to the original paper introducing TTK [40] (which detailed the core algorithms and data structures of TTK), the purpose of this Softwaresoftware paper is to describe the list of features currently supported by TTK, ranging from image segmentation tools to advanced topological analysis of high-dimensional data, with concrete usage examples available on the TTK website [42].
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| 5. |
- Oughton, Edward J., et al.
(author)
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Infrastructure as a Complex Adaptive System
- 2018
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In: Complexity. - : Hindawi Publishing Corporation. - 1076-2787 .- 1099-0526. ; 2018, s. 1-11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- National infrastructure systems spanning energy, transport, digital, waste, and water are well recognised as complex and interdependent. While some policy makers have been keen to adopt the narrative of complexity, the application of complexity-based methods in public policy decision-making has been restricted by the lack of innovation in associated methodologies and tools. In this paper we firstly evaluate the application of complex adaptive systems theory to infrastructure systems, comparing and contrasting this approach with traditional systems theory. We secondly identify five key theoretical properties of complex adaptive systems including adaptive agents, diverse agents, dynamics, irreversibility, and emergence, which are exhibited across three hierarchical levels ranging from agents, to networks, to systems. With these properties in mind, we then present a case study on the development of a system-of-systems modelling approach based on complex adaptive systems theory capable of modelling an emergent national infrastructure system, driven by agent-level decisions with explicitly modelled interdependencies between energy, transport, digital, waste, and water. Indeed, the novel contribution of the paper is the articulation of the case study describing a decade of research which applies complex adaptive systems properties to the development of a national infrastructure system-of-systems model. This approach has been used by the UK National Infrastructure Commission to produce a National Infrastructure Assessment which is capable of coordinating infrastructure policy across a historically fragmented governance landscape spanning eight government departments. The application will continue to be pertinent moving forward due to the continuing complexity of interdependent infrastructure systems, particularly the challenges of increased electrification and the proliferation of the Internet of Things.
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| 6. |
- PAPPIS, IOANNIS, 1989-
(author)
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Trade-offs and conflicting objectives of decision-making investments in low-carbon technology portfolios for sustainable development : National and continental insights offered by applying energy system models
- 2022
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Energy infrastructure and appropriate energy policies are crucial for sustainable development and to meet Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Limiting global warming potential below 1.5oC would require “rapid and far-reaching” transitions and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society. Several factors influence investment decisions on energy conversion technologies and their specific locations. The choice, timing, and location of energy investments affect the total system cost, socio-economic development, the environment (e.g., emissions, water use), and a nation's energy security. However, existing national energy modelling initiatives only investigate a subset of these pillars for achieving sustainability.This thesis examines the challenges associated with the energy transition of low-and middle-income countries (Paraguay, Ethiopia, Africa). This work considers national and global policies, focusing on achieving SDG7 and SDG13. The dissertation includes a cover essay and four appended papers. The research conducted in this Thesis examines how energy-systems models can assist in understanding an energy system's complex interactions for sustainable development.Specifically, the results highlight hydropower and solar PV as key technologies to achieve climate change targets, energy security and energy access goals. Hydropower and other renewable electricity can be exported to bolster energy security for the exporting country, although export revenues are eroded by local demand growth and low export prices. The benefits of low-cost electricity provided by cross-border hydropower should be balanced against energy security concerns for the importing country. The research demonstrates the benefits of regional coordination, with trade enabling renewable resources to be harnessed and the electricity transmitted to demand centres. Although RET decreases carbon dioxide emissions and water use compared to fossil-fuel plants and creates more jobs, they require high up-front capital costs offset by the lower operating fuel costs in the long term. Thus, increasing the ambition of climate targets while achieving electricity access results in lower cumulative costs. Also, although hydropower and renewable technologies build climate resilience, hydropower operation depends on climate variability affecting energy security. Thus, mitigation strategies should consider the associated challenges of climate change in hydropower investments.Hydropower and renewables are primarily grid-connected technologies, so off-grid and mini-grid systems are key complements to national-grid expansion when pushing for universal energy access. They also impact energy security, total system costs and socio-economic development. This Thesis's outcomes can support governments in strategic energy planning to identify future renewable energy projects and ensure their financial viability. Energy systems in their transition need to be affordable, reliable and sustainable (e.g., energy secured, combat climate change) by being climate-resilient. The thesis findings demonstrate that nations need integrated energy planning, accounting for the geospatial characteristics of energy technologies, and water resources management to achieve SDG7 and build climate-resilient (SDG13). A broad portfolio of renewable technologies, interconnectors and a decentralized power generation system providing electricity closer to the end-user demand is needed to enhance energy security, decrease environmental pressures and provide affordable electricity for a nation.
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| 7. |
- Pye, Steve, et al.
(author)
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Assessing qualitative and quantitative dimensions of uncertainty in energy modelling for policy support in the United Kingdom
- 2018
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In: Energy Research & Social Science. - : Elsevier. - 2214-6296 .- 2214-6326. ; 46:June, s. 332-344
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Strategic planning for the low carbon energy transition is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty across many knowledge domains and by the high stakes involved in making decisions. Energy models can be used to assist decision makers in making robust choices that reflect the concerns of many interested stakeholders. Quantitative model insights alone, however, are insufficient as some dimensions of uncertainty can only be assessed via qualitative approaches. This includes the strength of the knowledge base underlying the models, and the biases and value-ladenness brought into the process based on the modelling choices made by users. To address this deficit in current modelling approaches in the UK context, we use the NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) approach to qualify uncertainty in the energy system model, ESME. We find that a range of critical model assumptions that are highly influential on quantitative model results have weaknesses, or low pedigree scores, in aspects of the knowledge base that underpins them, and are subject to potential value-ladenness. In the case of the UK, this includes assumptions around CCS deployment and bioenergy resources, both of which are highly influential in driving model outcomes. These insights are not only crucial for improving the use of models in policy-making and providing a more comprehensive understanding of uncertainty in models, but also help to contextualise quantitative results, and identify priority future research areas for improving the knowledge base used in modelling. The NUSAP approach also promotes engagement across a broader set of stakeholders in the analytical process, and opens model assumptions up to closer scrutiny, thereby contributing to transparency.
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| 8. |
- Sahlberg, Andreas, et al.
(author)
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Exploring long-term electrification pathway dynamics : a case study of Ethiopia
- 2023
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In: Discover Energy. - : Springer Nature. - 2730-7719. ; 3:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Open Source Spatial Electrifcation Tool (OnSSET) is extended to provide a long-term geospatial electrifcationanalysis of Ethiopia, focusing on the role of grid- and of-grid technologies to increase residential electricity access underdiferent scenarios. Furthermore, the model explores issues of compatibility between the electricity supply technologiesover time. Six potential scenarios towards universal access to electricity in the country are examined based on threepathways; the Ambition pathway sees high demand growth and universal access achieved by 2025, the Slow Down pathway follows a lower demand growth with a slower electrifcation rate and with a higher share of of-grid technologies,and the Big Business pathway prioritizes grid electricity frst for the industrial sector, leading to slower residential electrifcation. The results show a large focus on grid extension and stand-alone PV deployment for least-cost electrifcationin case of low grid-generation costs and uninhibited grid expansion. However, in case of a slower grid rollout rate andhigh demand growth, a more dynamic evolution of the supply system is seen, where mini-grids play an important rolein transitional electrifcation. Similarly, in the case where grid electricity generation comes at a higher cost, mini-gridsprove to be cost-competitive with the centralized grid in many areas. Finally, we also show that transitional mini-grids,which are later incorporated into the centralized grid, risk increasing the investments signifcantly during the periodswhen these are integrated and mini-grid standards are not successfully implemented. In all cases, existing barriers todecentralized technologies must be removed to ensure of-grid technologies are deployed and potentially integratedwith the centralized grid as needed.
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