| 1. |
- Aad, G., et al.
(author)
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- 2011
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swepub:Mat__t (peer-reviewed)
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| 2. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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| 3. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 4. |
- Fages, A., et al.
(author)
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Tracking Five Millennia of Horse Management with Extensive Ancient Genome Time Series
- 2019
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In: Cell. - : Elsevier BV. - 0092-8674. ; 177:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Horse domestication revolutionized warfare and accelerated travel, trade, and the geographic expansion of languages. Here, we present the largest DNA time series for a non-human organism to date, including genome-scale data from 149 ancient animals and 129 ancient genomes (>= 1-fold coverage), 87 of which are new. This extensive dataset allows us to assess the modem legacy of past equestrian civilisations. We find that two extinct horse lineages existed during early domestication, one at the far western (Iberia) and the other at the far eastern range (Siberia) of Eurasia. None of these contributed significantly to modern diversity. We show that the influence of Persian-related horse lineages increased following the Islamic conquests in Europe and Asia. Multiple alleles associated with elite-racing, including at the MSTN "speed gene," only rose in popularity within the last millennium. Finally, the development of modem breeding impacted genetic diversity more dramatically than the previous millennia of human management.
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| 5. |
- Villa, Luisa L., et al.
(author)
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Quadrivalent vaccine against human papillomavirus to prevent high-grade cervical lesions
- 2007
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In: New England Journal of Medicine. - 0028-4793 .- 1533-4406. ; 356:19, s. 1915-1927
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Human papillomavirus types 16 (HPV-16) and 18 (HPV-18) cause approximately 70% of cervical cancers worldwide. A phase 3 trial was conducted to evaluate a quadrivalent vaccine against HPV types 6, 11, 16, and 18 (HPV-6/11/16/18) for the prevention of high-grade cervical lesions associated with HPV-16 and HPV-18. METHODS: In this randomized, double-blind trial, we assigned 12,167 women between the ages of 15 and 26 years to receive three doses of either HPV-6/11/16/18 vaccine or placebo, administered at day 1, month 2, and month 6. The primary analysis was performed for a per-protocol susceptible population that included 5305 women in the vaccine group and 5260 in the placebo group who had no virologic evidence of infection with HPV-16 or HPV-18 through 1 month after the third dose (month 7). The primary composite end point was cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 or 3, adenocarcinoma in situ, or cervical cancer related to HPV-16 or HPV-18. RESULTS: Subjects were followed for an average of 3 years after receiving the first dose of vaccine or placebo. Vaccine efficacy for the prevention of the primary composite end point was 98% (95.89% confidence interval [CI], 86 to 100) in the per-protocol susceptible population and 44% (95% CI, 26 to 58) in an intention-to-treat population of all women who had undergone randomization (those with or without previous infection). The estimated vaccine efficacy against all high-grade cervical lesions, regardless of causal HPV type, in this intention-to-treat population was 17% (95% CI, 1 to 31). CONCLUSIONS: In young women who had not been previously infected with HPV-16 or HPV-18, those in the vaccine group had a significantly lower occurrence of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia related to HPV-16 or HPV-18 than did those in the placebo group.
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| 6. |
- Jacobs, Kevin B, et al.
(author)
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Detectable clonal mosaicism and its relationship to aging and cancer.
- 2012
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In: Nature Genetics. - New York : Nature Publishing Group. - 1061-4036 .- 1546-1718. ; 44:6, s. 651-658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In an analysis of 31,717 cancer cases and 26,136 cancer-free controls from 13 genome-wide association studies, we observed large chromosomal abnormalities in a subset of clones in DNA obtained from blood or buccal samples. We observed mosaic abnormalities, either aneuploidy or copy-neutral loss of heterozygosity, of >2 Mb in size in autosomes of 517 individuals (0.89%), with abnormal cell proportions of between 7% and 95%. In cancer-free individuals, frequency increased with age, from 0.23% under 50 years to 1.91% between 75 and 79 years (P = 4.8 × 10(-8)). Mosaic abnormalities were more frequent in individuals with solid tumors (0.97% versus 0.74% in cancer-free individuals; odds ratio (OR) = 1.25; P = 0.016), with stronger association with cases who had DNA collected before diagnosis or treatment (OR = 1.45; P = 0.0005). Detectable mosaicism was also more common in individuals for whom DNA was collected at least 1 year before diagnosis with leukemia compared to cancer-free individuals (OR = 35.4; P = 3.8 × 10(-11)). These findings underscore the time-dependent nature of somatic events in the etiology of cancer and potentially other late-onset diseases.
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| 7. |
- Joura, Elmar A., et al.
(author)
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HPV antibody levels and clinical efficacy following administration of a prophylactic quadrivalent HPV vaccine
- 2008
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In: Vaccine. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2518 .- 0264-410X. ; 26:52, s. 6844-6851
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The efficacy of the quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine is thought to be mediated by humoral immunity. We evaluated the correlation between quadrivalent HPV vaccine-induced serum anti-HPV responses and efficacy. 17,622 women were vaccinated at day 1, and months 2 and 6. At day I and at 6-12 months intervals for up to 48 months, subjects underwent Papanicolaou and genital HPV testing. No immune correlate of protection could be found due to low number of cases. Although 40% of vaccine subjects were anti-HPV 18 seronegative at end-of-study, efficacy against HPV 18-related disease remained high (98.4%; 95% CI: 90.5-100.0) despite high attack rates in the placebo group. These results suggest vaccine-induced protection via immune memory, or lower than detectable HPV 18 antibody titers. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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| 8. |
- Kjaer, Susanne K., et al.
(author)
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A Pooled Analysis of Continued Prophylactic Efficacy of Quadrivalent Human Papillomavirus (Types 6/11/16/18) Vaccine against High-grade Cervical and External Genital Lesions
- 2009
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In: Cancer Prevention Research. - 1940-6207. ; 2:10, s. 868-878
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Quadrivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine has been shown to provide protection from HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical, vaginal, and vulvar disease through 3 years. We provide an update on the efficacy of the quadrivalent HPV vaccine against high-grade cervical, vaginal, and vulvar lesions based on end-of-study data from three clinical trials. Additionally, we stratify vaccine efficacy by several baseline characteristics, including age, smoking status, and Papanicolaou (Pap) test results. A total of 18,174 females ages 16 to 26 years were randomized and allocated into one of three clinical trials (protocols 007, 013, and 015). Vaccine or placebo was given at baseline, month 2, and month 6. Pap testing was conducted at regular intervals. Cervical and anogenital swabs were collected for HPV DNA testing. Examination for the presence of vulvar and vaginal lesions was also done. Endpoints included high-grade cervical, vulvar, or vaginal lesions (CIN 2/3, VIN 2/3, or VaIN 2/3). Mean follow-up time was 42 months post dose 1. Vaccine efficacy against HPV 6/11/16/18-related high-grade cervical lesions in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat populations was 98.2% [95% confidence interval (95% CI), 93.3-99.8] and 51.5% (95% CI, 40.6-60.6), respectively. Vaccine efficacy against HPV 6/11/16/18-related high-grade vulvar and vaginal lesions in the per-protocol and intention-to-treat populations was 100.0% (95% CI, 82.6-100.0) and 79.0% (95% CI, 56.4-91.0), respectively. Efficacy in the intention-to-treat population tended to be lower in older women, women with more partners, and women with abnormal Pap test results. The efficacy of quadrivalent HPV vaccine against high-grade cervical and external anogenital neoplasia remains high through 42 months post vaccination.
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| 9. |
- Olsson, Sven-Eric, et al.
(author)
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Evaluation of quadrivalent HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine efficacy against cervical and anogenital disease in subjects with serological evidence of prior vaccine type HPV infection
- 2009
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In: Human Vaccines. - 1554-8600. ; 5:10, s. 696-704
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: In the quadrivalent (types 6/11/16/18) HPV vaccine (GARDASIL (R)/SILGARD (R)) clinical program, 73% of women aged 16-26 were naive to all vaccine HPV types. In these women, prophylactic administration of the vaccine was highly effective in preventing HPV 6/11/16/18-related cervical disease. Of the remaining women, 15% of had evidence of past infection with one or more vaccine HPV types (seropositive and DNA negative) at the time of enrollment. Here we present an analysis in this group of women to determine the efficacy of the HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine against new cervical and external anogenital disease related to the same vaccine HPV type which had previously been cleared. Vaccine tolerability in this previously infected population was also assessed. Results: Subjects were followed for an average of 40 months. Seven subjects in the placebo group developed cervical disease, and eight subjects developed external genital disease related to a vaccine HPV type they had previously encountered. No subject receiving HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine developed disease to a vaccine HPV type to which they were seropositive and DNA negative at enrollment. Methods: 18,174 women were enrolled into three clinical studies. The data presented comprise a subset of these subjects (n = 2,617) who were HPV seropositive and DNA negative at enrollment (for >= 1 vaccine type). In each study, subjects were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine or placebo at day 1, month 2 and month 6 (without knowledge of baseline HPV status). Procedures performed for efficacy data evaluation included detailed genital examination, Pap testing and collection of cervicovaginal and external genital specimens. Analyses of efficacy were carried out in a population stratified by HPV serology and HPV DNA status at enrollment. Conclusions: These results suggest that natural HPV infection-elicited antibodies may not provide complete protection over time, however the immune response to the HPV 6/11/16/18 vaccine appears to prevent reinfection or reactivation of disease with vaccine HPV types. Vaccine-related adverse experiences were higher among subjects receiving vaccine, mostly due to increased injection site adverse experiences.
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| 10. |
- Villa, Luisa L., et al.
(author)
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Immunologic responses following administration of a vaccine targeting human papillomavirus Types 6, 11, 16, and 18
- 2006
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In: Vaccine. - : Elsevier BV. - 1873-2518 .- 0264-410X. ; 24:27-28, s. 5571-5583
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection causes cervical cancer and genital warts. Young women (1106) were randomized to receive one of three formulations of a quadrivalent HPV (Types 6/11/16/18) L1 virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine or one of two placebo formulations. The goal was to assess vaccine safety and immunogenicity in baseline HPV 6/11/16 or 18-naive and previously infected subjects. All three formulations were highly immunogenic. At Month 2 (postdose 1), among women with vaccine-type antibodies at baseline, vaccine-induced anti-HPV responses were similar to 12- to 26-fold higher than those observed in baseline-naive women, suggesting an anamnestic response. Following an initial, similar sized decline, anti-HPV responses plateaued and remained stable through end-of-study (3.0 years). No vaccine-related serious adverse experiences were reported. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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