1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
-
Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
|
|
2. |
- Bassi, Claudio, et al.
(author)
-
The 2016 update of the International Study Group (ISGPS) definition and grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula : 11 Years After
- 2017
-
In: Surgery. - : Elsevier BV. - 0039-6060 .- 1532-7361. ; 161:3, s. 584-591
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: In 2005, the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula developed a definition and grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula that has been accepted universally. Eleven years later, because postoperative pancreatic fistula remains one of the most relevant and harmful complications of pancreatic operation, the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula classification has become the gold standard in defining postoperative pancreatic fistula in clinical practice. The aim of the present report is to verify the value of the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula definition and grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula and to update the International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula classification in light of recent evidence that has emerged, as well as to address the lingering controversies about the original definition and grading of postoperative pancreatic fistula. Methods: The International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula reconvened as the International Study Group in Pancreatic Surgery in order to perform a review of the recent literature and consequently to update and revise the grading system of postoperative pancreatic fistula. Results: Based on the literature since 2005 investigating the validity and clinical use of the original International Study Group of Pancreatic Fistula classification, a clinically relevant postoperative pancreatic fistula is now redefined as a drain output of any measurable volume of fluid with an amylase level >3 times the upper limit of institutional normal serum amylase activity, associated with a clinically relevant development/condition related directly to the postoperative pancreatic fistula. Consequently, the former "grade A postoperative pancreatic fistula" is now redefined and called a "biochemical leak," because it has no clinical importance and is no longer referred to a true pancreatic fistula. Postoperative pancreatic fistula grades B and C are confirmed but defined more strictly. In particular, grade B requires a change in the postoperative management; drains are either left in place >3 weeks or repositioned through endoscopic or percutaneous procedures. Grade C postoperative pancreatic fistula refers to those postoperative pancreatic fistula that require reoperation or lead to single or multiple organ failure and/or mortality attributable to the pancreatic fistula. Conclusion: This new definition and grading system of postoperative pancreatic fistula should lead to a more universally consistent evaluation of operative outcomes after pancreatic operation and will allow for a better comparison of techniques used to mitigate the rate and clinical impact of a pancreatic fistula. Use of this updated classification will also allow for more precise comparisons of surgical quality between surgeons and units who perform pancreatic surgery.
|
|
3. |
|
|
4. |
- Maggino, Laura, et al.
(author)
-
Reappraisal of a 2-Cm Cut-off Size for the Management of Cystic Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Neoplasms : A Multicenter International Study
- 2021
-
In: Annals of Surgery. - : Wolters Kluwer. - 0003-4932 .- 1528-1140. ; 273:5, s. 973-981
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to characterize an international cohort of resected cystic pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (cPanNENs) and identify preoperative predictors of aggressive behavior.BACKGROUND: The characteristics of cPanNENs are unknown and their clinical management remains unclear. An observational strategy for asymptomatic cPanNENs ≤2 cm has been proposed by recent guidelines, but evidence is scarce and limited to single-institutional series.METHODS: Resected cPanNENs (1995-2017) from 16 institutions worldwide were included. Solid lesions (>50% solid component), functional tumors, and MEN-1 patients were excluded. Aggressiveness was defined as lymph node (LN) involvement, G3 grading, distant metastases, and/or recurrence.RESULTS: Overall, 263 resected cPanNENs were included, among which 177 (63.5%) were >2 cm preoperatively. A preoperative diagnosis of cPanNEN was established in 162 cases (61.6%) and was more frequent when patients underwent endoscopic ultrasound [EUS, odds ratio (OR) 2.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.52-4.77] and somatostatin-receptor imaging (OR 3.681, 95% CI 1.809-7.490), and for those managed in specialized institutions (OR 3.12, 95% CI 1.57-6.21). Forty-one cPanNENs (15.6%) were considered aggressive. In the whole cohort, LN involvement on imaging, age >65 years, preoperative size >2 cm, and pancreatic duct dilation were independently associated with aggressive behavior. In asymptomatic patients, older age and a preoperative size >2 cm remained independently associated with aggressiveness. Only 1 of 61 asymptomatic cPanNENs ≤2 cm displayed an aggressive behavior.CONCLUSIONS: The diagnostic accuracy of cPanNENs is increased by the use of EUS and somatostatin-receptor imaging and is higher in specialized institutions. Preoperative size >2 cm is independently associated with aggressive behavior. Consequently, a watch-and-wait policy for sporadic asymptomatic cPanNENs ≤2 cm seems justified and safe for most patients.
|
|
5. |
- Micah, Angela E., et al.
(author)
-
Tracking development assistance for health and for COVID-19 : a review of development assistance, government, out-of-pocket, and other private spending on health for 204 countries and territories, 1990-2050
- 2021
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 398:10308, s. 1317-1343
-
Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The rapid spread of COVID-19 renewed the focus on how health systems across the globe are financed, especially during public health emergencies. Development assistance is an important source of health financing in many low-income countries, yet little is known about how much of this funding was disbursed for COVID-19. We aimed to put development assistance for health for COVID-19 in the context of broader trends in global health financing, and to estimate total health spending from 1995 to 2050 and development assistance for COVID-19 in 2020. Methods We estimated domestic health spending and development assistance for health to generate total health-sector spending estimates for 204 countries and territories. We leveraged data from the WHO Global Health Expenditure Database to produce estimates of domestic health spending. To generate estimates for development assistance for health, we relied on project-level disbursement data from the major international development agencies' online databases and annual financial statements and reports for information on income sources. To adjust our estimates for 2020 to include disbursements related to COVID-19, we extracted project data on commitments and disbursements from a broader set of databases (because not all of the data sources used to estimate the historical series extend to 2020), including the UN Office of Humanitarian Assistance Financial Tracking Service and the International Aid Transparency Initiative. We reported all the historic and future spending estimates in inflation-adjusted 2020 US$, 2020 US$ per capita, purchasing-power parity-adjusted US$ per capita, and as a proportion of gross domestic product. We used various models to generate future health spending to 2050. Findings In 2019, health spending globally reached $8. 8 trillion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8.7-8.8) or $1132 (1119-1143) per person. Spending on health varied within and across income groups and geographical regions. Of this total, $40.4 billion (0.5%, 95% UI 0.5-0.5) was development assistance for health provided to low-income and middle-income countries, which made up 24.6% (UI 24.0-25.1) of total spending in low-income countries. We estimate that $54.8 billion in development assistance for health was disbursed in 2020. Of this, $13.7 billion was targeted toward the COVID-19 health response. $12.3 billion was newly committed and $1.4 billion was repurposed from existing health projects. $3.1 billion (22.4%) of the funds focused on country-level coordination and $2.4 billion (17.9%) was for supply chain and logistics. Only $714.4 million (7.7%) of COVID-19 development assistance for health went to Latin America, despite this region reporting 34.3% of total recorded COVID-19 deaths in low-income or middle-income countries in 2020. Spending on health is expected to rise to $1519 (1448-1591) per person in 2050, although spending across countries is expected to remain varied. Interpretation Global health spending is expected to continue to grow, but remain unequally distributed between countries. We estimate that development organisations substantially increased the amount of development assistance for health provided in 2020. Continued efforts are needed to raise sufficient resources to mitigate the pandemic for the most vulnerable, and to help curtail the pandemic for all. Copyright (C) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.
|
|
6. |
- Schrenk, Dieter, et al.
(author)
-
Risk to human health related to the presence of perfluoroalkyl substances in food.
- 2020
-
In: EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority. - : Wiley. - 1831-4732. ; 18:9
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The European Commission asked EFSA for a scientific evaluation on the risks to human health related to the presence of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) in food. Based on several similar effects in animals, toxicokinetics and observed concentrations in human blood, the CONTAM Paneldecided to perform the assessment for the sum of four PFASs: PFOA, PFNA, PFHxS and PFOS. These made up half of the lower bound (LB) exposure to those PFASs with available occurrence data, the remaining contribution being primarily from PFASs with short half-lives. Equal potencies were assumed for the four PFASs included in the assessment. The mean LB exposure in adolescents and adult age groups ranged from 3 to 22, the 95th percentile from 9 to 70 ng/kg body weight (bw) per week. Toddlers and 'other children' showed a twofold higher exposure. Upper bound exposure was 4- to 49-fold higher than LB levels, but the latter were considered more reliable. 'Fish meat', 'Fruit and fruit products' and 'Eggs and egg products' contributed most to the exposure. Based on available studies in animals and humans, effects on the immune system were considered the most critical for the risk assessment. From a human study, a lowest BMDL 10 of 17.5 ng/mL for the sum of the four PFASs in serum was identified for 1-year-old children. Using PBPK modelling, this serum level of 17.5 ng/mL in children was estimated to correspond to long-term maternal exposure of 0.63 ng/kg bw per day. Since accumulation over time is important, a tolerable weekly intake (TWI) of 4.4 ng/kg bw per week was established. This TWI also protects against other potential adverse effects observed in humans. Based on the estimated LB exposure, but also reported serum levels, the CONTAM Panelconcluded that parts of the European population exceed this TWI, which is of concern.
|
|
7. |
- Siriwardena, Ajith K., et al.
(author)
-
Standards for reporting on surgery for chronic pancreatitis : a report from the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS)
- 2020
-
In: Surgery (United States). - : Elsevier BV. - 0039-6060. ; 168:1, s. 101-105
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: The International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery provides globally accepted definitions for reporting of complications after pancreatic surgery. This International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery project aims to provide a standardized framework for reporting of the results of operative treatment for chronic pancreatitis. Methods: An International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery project circulation list was created with pre-existing and new members and including gastroenterologists in addition to surgeons. A computerized search of the literature was undertaken for articles reporting the operative treatment of chronic pancreatitis. The results of the literature search were presented at the first face-to-face meeting of this International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery project group. A document outlining proposed reporting standards was produced by discussion during an initial meeting of the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery. An electronic questionnaire was then sent to all current members of the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery. Responses were collated and further discussed at international meetings in North America, Europe, and at the International Association of Pancreatology World Congress in 2019. A final consensus document was produced by integration of multiple iterations. Results: The International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery consensus standards for reporting of surgery in chronic pancreatitis recommends 4 core domains and the necessary variables needed for reporting of results: clinical baseline before operation; the morphology of the diseased gland; a new, standardized, operative terminology; and a minimum outcome dataset. The 4 domains combine to give a comprehensive framework for reports. Conclusion: Adoption of the 4 domains of the International Study Group for Pancreatic Surgery reporting standards for surgery for chronic pancreatitis will facilitate comparison of results between centers and help to improve the care for patients with this debilitating disease.
|
|
8. |
|
|