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| 2. |
- De Kauwe, Martin G., et al.
(author)
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Forest water use and water use efficiency at elevated CO2: a model-data intercomparison at two contrasting temperate forest FACE sites
- 2013
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In: Global Change Biology. - : Wiley. - 1354-1013 .- 1365-2486. ; 19:6, s. 1759-1779
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Predicted responses of transpiration to elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) are highly variable amongst process-based models. To better understand and constrain this variability amongst models, we conducted an intercomparison of 11 ecosystem models applied to data from two forest free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiments at Duke University and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. We analysed model structures to identify the key underlying assumptions causing differences in model predictions of transpiration and canopy water use efficiency. We then compared the models against data to identify model assumptions that are incorrect or are large sources of uncertainty. We found that model-to-model and model-to-observations differences resulted from four key sets of assumptions, namely (i) the nature of the stomatal response to elevated CO2 (coupling between photosynthesis and stomata was supported by the data); (ii) the roles of the leaf and atmospheric boundary layer (models which assumed multiple conductance terms in series predicted more decoupled fluxes than observed at the broadleaf site); (iii) the treatment of canopy interception (large intermodel variability, 215%); and (iv) the impact of soil moisture stress (process uncertainty in how models limit carbon and water fluxes during moisture stress). Overall, model predictions of the CO2 effect on WUE were reasonable (intermodel =approximately 28%+/- 10%) compared to the observations (=approximately 30%+/- 13%) at the well-coupled coniferous site (Duke), but poor (intermodel =approximately 24%+/- 6%; observations =approximately 38%+/- 7%) at the broadleaf site (Oak Ridge). The study yields a framework for analysing and interpreting model predictions of transpiration responses to eCO2, and highlights key improvements to these types of models.
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| 3. |
- Döscher, Ralf, et al.
(author)
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The EC-Earth3 Earth system model for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6
- 2022
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:7, s. 2973-3020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Earth system model EC-Earth3 for contributions to CMIP6 is documented here, with its flexible coupling framework, major model configurations, a methodology for ensuring the simulations are comparable across different high-performance computing (HPC) systems, and with the physical performance of base configurations over the historical period. The variety of possible configurations and sub-models reflects the broad interests in the EC-Earth community. EC-Earth3 key performance metrics demonstrate physical behavior and biases well within the frame known from recent CMIP models. With improved physical and dynamic features, new Earth system model (ESM) components, community tools, and largely improved physical performance compared to the CMIP5 version, EC-Earth3 represents a clear step forward for the only European community ESM. We demonstrate here that EC-Earth3 is suited for a range of tasks in CMIP6 and beyond.
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| 4. |
- Ito, Akihiko, et al.
(author)
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Soil carbon sequestration simulated in CMIP6-LUMIP models : Implications for climatic mitigation
- 2020
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9318 .- 1748-9326. ; 15:12
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participants in the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project. Using a common protocol and the same forcing data, the ESMs simulated SOC distribution patterns and their changes during historical (1850-2014) and future (2015-2100) periods. Total SOC stock increased in many simulations over the historical period (30 ± 67 Pg C) and under future climate and land-use conditions (48 ± 32 Pg C for ssp126 and 49 ± 58 Pg C for ssp370). Land-use experiments indicated that changes in SOC attributable to land-use scenarios were modest at the global scale, in comparison with climatic and rising CO2 impacts, but they were notable in several regions. Future net soil carbon sequestration rates estimated by the ESMs were roughly 0.4‰ yr-1 (0.6 Pg C yr-1). Although there were considerable inter-model differences, the rates are still remarkable in terms of their potential for mitigation of global warming. The disparate results among ESMs imply that key parameters that control processes such as SOC residence time need to be better constrained and that more comprehensive representation of land management impacts on soils remain critical for understanding the long-term potential of soils to sequester carbon.
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| 5. |
- Martín Belda, David, et al.
(author)
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LPJ-GUESS/LSMv1.0 : A next-generation land surface model with high ecological realism
- 2022
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In: Geoscientific Model Development. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1991-959X .- 1991-9603. ; 15:17, s. 6709-6745
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Land biosphere processes are of central importance to the climate system. Specifically, ecosystems interact with the atmosphere through a variety of feedback loops that modulate energy, water, and CO2 fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere across a wide range of temporal and spatial scales. Human land use and land cover modification add a further level of complexity to land-atmosphere interactions. Dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) attempt to capture land ecosystem processes and are increasingly incorporated into Earth system models (ESMs), which makes it possible to study the coupled dynamics of the land biosphere and the climate. In this work we describe a number of modifications to the LPJ-GUESS DGVM, aimed at enabling direct integration into an ESM. These include energy balance closure, the introduction of a sub-daily time step, a new radiative transfer scheme, and improved soil physics. The implemented modifications allow the model (LPJ-GUESS/LSM) to simulate the diurnal exchange of energy, water, and CO2 between the land ecosystem and the atmosphere and thus provide surface boundary conditions to an atmospheric model over land. A site-based evaluation against FLUXNET2015 data shows reasonable agreement between observed and modelled sensible and latent heat fluxes. Differences in predicted ecosystem function between standard LPJ-GUESS and LPJ-GUESS/LSM vary across land cover types. We find that the emerging ecosystem composition and carbon fluxes are sensitive to both the choice of stomatal conductance model and the response of plant water uptake to soil moisture. The new implementation described in this work lays the foundation for using the well-established LPJ-GUESS DGVM as an alternative land surface model (LSM) in coupled land-biosphere-climate studies, where an accurate representation of ecosystem processes is essential.
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| 7. |
- Dass, Pawlok, et al.
(author)
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Bedrock Weathering Controls on Terrestrial Carbon-Nitrogen-Climate Interactions
- 2021
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In: Global Biogeochemical Cycles. - 0886-6236. ; 35:10
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anthropogenic nitrogen deposition is widely considered to increase CO2 sequestration by land plants on a global scale. Here, we demonstrate that bedrock nitrogen weathering contributes significantly more to nitrogen-carbon interactions than anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. This working hypothesis is based on the introduction of empirical results into a global biogeochemical simulation model over the time period of the mid-1800s to the end of the 21st century. Our findings suggest that rock nitrogen inputs have contributed roughly 2–11 times more to plant CO2 capture than nitrogen deposition inputs since pre-industrial times. Climate change projections based on RCP 8.5 show that rock nitrogen inputs and biological nitrogen fixation contribute 2–5 times more to terrestrial carbon uptake than anthropogenic nitrogen deposition though year 2101. Future responses of rock N inputs on plant CO2 capture rates are more signficant at higher latitudes and in mountainous environments, where geological and climate factors promote higher rock weathering rates. The enhancement of plant CO2 uptake via rock nitrogen weathering partially resolves nitrogen-carbon discrepancies in Earth system models and offers an alternative explanation for lack of progressive nitrogen limitation in the terrestrial biosphere. We conclude that natural N inputs impart major control over terrestrial CO2 sequestration in Earth’s ecosystems.
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| 9. |
- D’Onofrio, Donatella, et al.
(author)
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Linking Vegetation-Climate-Fire Relationships in Sub-Saharan Africa to Key Ecological Processes in Two Dynamic Global Vegetation Models
- 2020
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In: Frontiers in Environmental Science. - : Frontiers Media SA. - 2296-665X. ; 8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Africa is largely influenced by fires, which play an important ecological role influencing the distribution and structure of grassland, savanna and forest biomes. Here vegetation strongly interacts with climate and other environmental factors, such as herbivory and humans. Fire-enabled Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) display high uncertainty in predicting the distribution of current tropical biomes and the associated transitions, mainly due to the way they represent the main ecological processes and feedbacks related to water and fire. The aim of this study is to evaluate the outcomes of two state-of-the–art DGVMs, LPJ-GUESS and JSBACH, also currently used in two Earth System Models (ESMs), in order to assess which key ecological processes need to be included or improved to represent realistic interactions between vegetation cover, precipitation and fires in sub-Saharan Africa. To this end, we compare models and remote-sensing data, analyzing the relationships between tree and grass cover, mean annual rainfall, average rainfall seasonality and average fire intervals, using generalized linear models, and we compare the patterns of grasslands, savannas, and forests in sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that LPJ-GUESS (with a simple fire-model and complex vegetation description) performs well in regions of low precipitation, while in humid and mesic areas the representation of the fire process should probably be improved to obtain more open savannas. JSBACH (with a complex fire-model and a simple vegetation description) can simulate a vegetation-fire feedback that can maintain open savannas at intermediate and high precipitation, although this feedback seems to have stronger effects than observed, while at low precipitation JSBACH needs improvements in the representation of tree-grass competition and drought effects. This comparative process-based analysis permits to highlight the main factors that determine the tropical vegetation distribution in models and observations in sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting possible improvements in DGVMs and, consequently, in ESM simulations for future projections. Given the need to use carbon storage in vegetation as a climate mitigation measure, these models represent a valuable tool to improve our understanding of the sustainability of vegetation carbon pools as a carbon sink and the vulnerability to disturbances such as fire.
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| 10. |
- Eckes-Shephard, Annemarie, et al.
(author)
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State-of-the-art capabilities in LPJ-GUESS
- 2022
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Conference paper (other academic/artistic)abstract
- LPJ-GUESS is an advanced DGVM including detailed forest demography and management, croplands, wetlands, specialised arctic processes, emissions of nonCO2 GHGs and a highly flexible land-use change scheme which tracks transitions between different land-uses. It is the vegetation component of the EC-Earth CMIP6 ESM, the RCA-GUESS regional ESM, and also has a European mode operating at tree species level.
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