| 1. |
- Muleke, Albert, et al.
(författare)
-
Sustainable intensification with irrigation raises farm profit despite climate emergency
- 2023
-
Ingår i: Plants, People, Planet. - : Wiley. - 2572-2611. ; 5:3, s. 368-385
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Societal Impact StatementDespite comprising a small proportion of global agricultural land use, irrigated agriculture is enormously important to the global agricultural economy. Burgeoning food demand driven by population growth—together with reduced food supply caused by the climate crisis—is polarising the existing tension between water used for agricultural production versus that required for environmental conservation. We show that sustainable intensification via more diverse crop rotations, more efficient water application infrastructure and greater farm area under irrigation is conducive to greater farm business profitability under future climates.SummaryResearch aimed at improving crop productivity often does not account for the complexity of real farms underpinned by land-use changes in space and time.Here, we demonstrate how a new framework—WaterCan Profit—can be used to elicit such complexity using an irrigated case study farm with four whole-farm adaptation scenarios (Baseline, Diversified, Intensified and Simplified) with four types of irrigated infrastructure (Gravity, Pipe & Riser, Pivot and Drip).Without adaptation, the climate crisis detrimentally impacted on farm profitability due to the combination of increased evaporative demand and increased drought frequency. Whole-farm intensification—via greater irrigated land use, incorporation of rice, cotton and maize and increased nitrogen fertiliser application—was the only adaptation capable of raising farm productivity under future climates. Diversification through incorporation of grain legumes into crop rotations significantly improved profitability under historical climates; however, profitability of this adaptation declined under future climates. Simplified systems reduced economic risk but also had lower long-term economic returns.We conclude with four key insights: (1) When assessing whole-farm profit, metrics matter: Diversified systems generally had higher profitability than Intensified systems per unit water, but not per unit land area; (2) gravity-based irrigation infrastructure required the most water, followed by sprinkler systems, whereas Drip irrigation used the least water; (3) whole-farm agronomic adaptation through management and crop genotype had greater impact on productivity compared with changes in irrigation infrastructure; and (4) only whole-farm intensification was able to raise profitability under future climates.
|
|
| 2. |
- Wang, Bin, et al.
(författare)
-
Modelling changes in vegetation productivity and carbon balance under future climate scenarios in southeastern Australia
- 2024
-
Ingår i: Science of the Total Environment. - 0048-9697. ; 924
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- Australia, characterized by extensive and heterogeneous terrestrial ecosystems, plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle and in efforts to mitigate climate change. Prior research has quantified vegetation productivity and carbon balance within the Australian context over preceding decades. Nonetheless, the responses of vegetation and carbon dynamics to the evolving phenomena of climate change and escalating concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide remain ambiguous within the Australian landscape. Here, we used LPJ-GUESS model to assess the impacts of climate change on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) and Net Biome Productivity (NBP) of carbon for the state of New South Wales (NSW) in southeastern Australia. LPJ-GUESS simulations were driven by an ensemble of 27 global climate models under different emission scenarios. We investigated the change of GPP for different vegetation types and whether NSW ecosystems will be a net sink or source of carbon under climate change. We found that LPJ-GUESS successfully simulated GPP for the period 2003–2021, demonstrating a comparative performance with GPP derived from upscaled eddy covariance fluxes (R2 = 0.58, nRMSE = 14.2 %). The simulated NBP showed a larger interannual variation compared with flux data and other inversion products but could capture the timing of rainfall-driven carbon sink and source variations in 2015–2020. GPP would increase by 10.3–19.5 % under a medium emission scenario and 19.7–46.8 % under a high emission scenario. The mean probability of NSW acting as a carbon sink in the future showed a small decrease with a large uncertainty with >8 of the 27 climate models indicating an increased potential for carbon sink. These findings emphasize the significance of emission scenarios in shaping future carbon dynamics but also highlight considerable uncertainties stemming from different climate projections. Our study represents a baseline for understanding natural ecosystem dynamics and their key role in governing land carbon uptake and storage in Australia.
|
|
| 3. |
- Wang, Puyu, et al.
(författare)
-
A Test Study of an Energy and Mass Balance Model Application to a Site on Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Chinese Tian Shan
- 2020
-
Ingår i: Water. - : MDPI AG. - 2073-4441. ; 12:10
-
Tidskriftsartikel (refereegranskat)abstract
- In this study, energy and mass balance is quantified using an energy balance model to represent the glacier melt of Urumqi Glacier No. 1, Chinese Tian Shan. Based on data from an Automatic Weather Station (4025 m a.s.l) and the mass balance field survey data nearby on the East Branch of the glacier, the “COupled Snowpack and Ice surface energy and Mass balance model” (COSIMA) was used to derive energy and mass balance simulations during the ablation season of 2018. Results show that the modeled cumulative mass balance (−0.67 ± 0.03 m w.e.) agrees well with the in-situ measurements (−0.64 ± 0.16 m w.e.) (r2 = 0.96) with the relative difference within 5% during the study period. The correlation coefficient between modeled and observed surface temperatures is 0.88 for daily means. The main source of melt energy at the glacier surface is net shortwave radiation (84%) and sensible heat flux (16%). The energy expenditures are from net longwave radiation (55%), heat flux for snow/ice melting (32%), latent heat flux of sublimation and evaporation (7%), and subsurface heat flux (6%). The sensitivity testing of mass balance shows that mass balance is more sensitive to temperature increase and precipitation decrease than temperature decrease and precipitation increase.
|
|
