| 1. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
-
Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
|
|
| 2. |
- Forsberg, Lars A., et al.
(author)
-
Age-related somatic structural changes in the nuclear genome of human blood cells
- 2012
-
In: American Journal of Human Genetics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0002-9297 .- 1537-6605. ; 90:2, s. 217-228
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Structural variations are among the most frequent interindividual genetic differences in the human genome. The frequency and distribution of de novo somatic structural variants in normal cells is, however, poorly explored. Using age-stratified cohorts of 318 monozygotic (MZ) twins and 296 single-born subjects, we describe age-related accumulation of copy-number variation in the nuclear genomes in vivo and frequency changes for both megabase- and kilobase-range variants. Megabase-range aberrations were found in 3.4% (9 of 264) of subjects ≥60 years old; these subjects included 78 MZ twin pairs and 108 single-born individuals. No such findings were observed in 81 MZ pairs or 180 single-born subjects who were ≤55 years old. Recurrent region- and gene-specific mutations, mostly deletions, were observed. Longitudinal analyses of 43 subjects whose data were collected 7-19 years apart suggest considerable variation in the rate of accumulation of clones carrying structural changes. Furthermore, the longitudinal analysis of individuals with structural aberrations suggests that there is a natural self-removal of aberrant cell clones from peripheral blood. In three healthy subjects, we detected somatic aberrations characteristic of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome. The recurrent rearrangements uncovered here are candidates for common age-related defects in human blood cells. We anticipate that extension of these results will allow determination of the genetic age of different somatic-cell lineages and estimation of possible individual differences between genetic and chronological age. Our work might also help to explain the cause of an age-related reduction in the number of cell clones in the blood; such a reduction is one of the hallmarks of immunosenescence.
|
|
| 3. |
- Razzaghian, Hamid Reza, et al.
(author)
-
Post-Zygotic and Inter-Individual Structural Genetic Variation in a Presumptive Enhancer Element of the Locus between the IL10Rβ and IFNAR1 Genes
- 2013
-
In: PLOS ONE. - : Public Library of Science (PLoS). - 1932-6203. ; 8:9, s. e67752-
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although historically considered as junk-DNA, tandemly repeated sequence motifs can affect human phenotype. For example, variable number tandem repeats (VNTR) with embedded enhancers have been shown to regulate gene transcription. The post-zygotic variation is the presence of genetically distinct populations of cells in an individual derived from a single zygote, and this is an understudied aspect of genome biology. We report somatically variable VNTR with sequence properties of an enhancer, located upstream of IFNAR1. Initially, SNP genotyping of 63 monozygotic twin pairs and multiple tissues from 21 breast cancer patients suggested a frequent post-zygotic mosaicism. The VNTR displayed a repeated 32 bp core motif in the center of the repeat, which was flanked by similar variable motifs. A total of 14 alleles were characterized based on combinations of segments, which showed post-zygotic and inter-individual variation, with up to 6 alleles in a single subject. Somatic variation occurred in similar to 24% of cases. In this hypervariable region, we found a clustering of transcription factor binding sites with strongest sequence similarity to mouse Foxg1 transcription factor binding motif. This study describes a VNTR with sequence properties of an enhancer that displays post-zygotic and inter-individual genetic variation. This element is within a locus containing four related cytokine receptors: IFNAR2, IL10R beta, IFNAR1 and IFNGR2, and we hypothesize that it might function in transcriptional regulation of several genes in this cluster. Our findings add another level of complexity to the variation among VNTR-based enhancers. Further work may unveil the normal function of this VNTR in transcriptional control and its possible involvement in diseases connected with these receptors, such as autoimmune conditions and cancer.
|
|
| 4. |
- Lawrie, Andrew S., et al.
(author)
-
Procoagulant activity in patients with sickle cell trait
- 2012
-
In: Blood Coagulation and Fibrinolysis. - 0957-5235 .- 1473-5733. ; 23:4, s. 268-270
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Patients with sickle cell trait (STr) are usually considered to be asymptomatic. However, complications, including hypercoagulability, increased risk of venous thromboembolism and the exertional exercise syndrome with rhabdomyolysis and sudden death, have been described. The exact cause of these adverse events is unclear. We have investigated two patients, a set of monozygotic twins with STr, to establish their procoagulant activity status as a potential indicator of thrombotic risk. In-vivo thrombin generation was assessed by the measurement of prothrombin fragment 1+2 (F1+2) and thrombin-antithrombin complexes (TAT). D-dimer was used as a marker of fibrinolytic activity. The potential to generate thrombin was determined using an ex-vivo thrombin generation test (TGT). The impact of red blood cell (RBC)-derived microparticle shedding and RBC rheology were examined. TAT (>60 mu g/l) and F1+2 (948 pmol/l) were markedly elevated in patient 2 but within the normal reference range in patient 1 (TAT=2.5 mu g/l; F1+2=138 pmol/l). D-dimer levels (0.9 mg/l FEU) were similarly elevated in both patients. TGT peak thrombin and endogenous thrombin potential (ETP) were elevated to similar degrees in both patients. Flow cytometric analysis for RBC-derived microparticles showed that both patients had elevated levels on two occasions. RBC deformability, blood viscosity and RBC aggregation were normal and similar in both patients. The results demonstrated different coagulation activity in the patients with one patient in a prothrombotic state, suggesting that there may be two levels of hypercoagulability in STr. Measurement of such differences would allow for separation of high and low-risk patients from serious complications.
|
|
| 5. |
- Razzaghian, Hamid Reza, et al.
(author)
-
Somatic Mosaicism for Chromosome X and Y Aneuploidies in Monozygotic Twins Heterozygous for Sickle Cell Disease Mutation
- 2010
-
In: American Journal of Medical Genetics. Part A. - : Wiley. - 1552-4825 .- 1552-4833. ; 152A:10, s. 2595-2598
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Somatic genetic variation in health and disease is poorly explored. Monozygotic (MZ) twins are a suitable model for studies of somatic mosaicism since genetic differences in twins derived from the same zygote represent an irrefutable example of somatic variation. We report the analysis of a pair of generally healthy female MZ twins, discordant for somatic mosaicism for aneuploidy of chromosomes X and Y. Both twins are heterozygous carriers of sickle cell disease mutation. Genotyping of blood DNA from both twins using Illumina Human 610 SNP array revealed a copy number imbalance for chromosome X in a proportion of cells in one twin. Fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) analysis confirmed monosomy X (45,X) in 7% of proband nucleated blood cells. Unexpectedly, FISH analysis of cells from the other twin revealed 45,X and 46,XY lineages, both present in 1% of cells. The mechanism behind formation of these aneuploidies suggests several aberrant chromosome segregation events in meiosis and mitoses following conception. Our report contributes to the delineation of the frequency of somatic structural genomic variation in normal MZ twins. These results also illustrate the plasticity of the human genome for tolerating large copy number changes in healthy subjects and show the sensitivity of the Illumina platform for detection of aberrations that are present in a minority of the studied cells.
|
|
