| 1. |
- Becker, Per, et al.
(författare)
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Final report: A participatory method for need based capacity development projects and programmes
- 2011
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The three-year research project funded by MSB applies design science, in combination with traditional scientific investigation, to develop a method to guide the planning phase of capacity development projects for disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. The method facilitates local participation and ownership as it builds on the strengths of the Logical Framework Approach (LFA), while contextualising it to suit capacity development for disaster risk management and climate change adaptation.
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| 2. |
- Berndt, Brehmer, et al.
(författare)
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Förslag till ett samverkanssystem för svenska länsstyrelser
- 2014
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report is a first attempt to use the design perspective we have developed in earlier reports in this series (Brehmer & Tehler, 2013: Tehler & Brehmer, 2013) in practical design of a system that would help Swedish County Administration Boards to meet their area responsibility in cases of major crises and accidents in their counties. The work starts with the development of a design hierarchy with five levels: purpose, design criteria, functions, general processes and form. The purpose of the system is to help achieve the agreement among actors necessary for a coordinated crisis response. Design criteria are taken from a general analysis of crisis management as management of dynamic systems, from experience from exercises and accidents and from the Method Concept developed by MSB to provide a common ground of values to guide decision making. A function structure showing what the system must produce to fulfill its purpose is developed. Problems were encountered when this function structure was to be translated into form due to the fact that very little validated scientific information to serve as basis for concrete design propositions could be found when searching general processes. More serious was lack of information concerning prediction systems to help the system handle future developments and that the Method Concept has not been developed to handle prioritization problems. Despite that, and some more minor problems, it proved possible to actually design a system. The final system has two components. The analysis unit that analyses the situation from a holistic perspective to come up with suggestions about how to handle problems of coordination and problems currently not handled by the crisis management system. It also handles non-controversial coordination issues. The decisions on nontrivial issues are made by a negotiation unit. These two units are supported by a structure providing the information that is necessary. We interpret the fact that we managed to actually produce a design for a system as evidence that the design perspective does what it promises to do: to provide a basis for design of management systems for crisis and accidents management and we conclude that work along the lines suggested in our earlier reports is well worth pursuing.
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| 3. |
- Mullai, Arben, et al.
(författare)
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Oil Spills in Öresund - Hazardous Events, Causes and Claims
- 2002
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Öresund is one of the areas in the world with most ship movements. More than 40,000 ships pass through the sound in the direction north-south or the opposite every year. Other ships/ferries frequently cross the sound in the direction east-west or west-east. The ships carry goods and/or passengers in huge volumes. Since Öresund is a quite narrow sound with a difficult navigation situation, many risks of different kinds are at hand. The Öresund area is also a heavily populated area with many people living at the sound or quite near it. The consequences of an oil spill could therefore be severe to people, the environment and property. The objectives of the study are to identify and analyse marine oil spill events in Öresund, to analyse the causes of those events, to estimate potential third-party claims for oil spill events in Öresund and to suggest some safety-increasing actions concerning oil spills in Öresund. The study is confined to the risks of oil and oil products, including bunker oil, of marine transport and related activities in the Öresund area. Furthermore, when considering the claims, the cost of damage to/loss of ship and goods is not studied. Only third-party claims are considered. Following a brief discussion of risk analysis and oil spills, a number of studies of risks in Öresund are presented. Then a description and characterization of the Öresund maritime situation is conducted. After that statistics on accidents and incidents in Öresund are collected and structured, and marine events and the causes of oil spills are analysed. Since statistics from Öresund are limited, world statistics on major oil spills and their claims are gathered and applied to the Öresund situation as well as oil spill statistics from the Baltic Sea. A recent oil spill accident, Baltic Carrier/Tern, which occurred on 29 March 2001 off the southern coast of Denmark, is used as illustration. Finally, different safety-increasing actions are discussed and suggested. The following categories of initial events were directly liable for oil spills in Öresund: grounding, collision, contact, hull/watertightness failure and listing/capsizing. In the latter cases ships have foundered intact, assuming that a foundered ship might have caused an oil spill. There are many worldwide experiences where oil still leaks daily from ships sunk many years ago. Oil spills may also result from operating activities in ports/terminals, such as loading, discharging, bunkering and other operations. Deliberate or intentional oil discharges are also a concern. The frequencies of events that have occurred in Öresund (1985-1999), causes, contributing factors and consequences thereof, share similarities and differences with oil spills events that have occurred around the world. Categories of events which led to oil spill were generally similar, but with different frequencies of contribution. Thus, the grounding events contributed to 60% of oil spills in Öresund compared to 32% of world major oil spills. Compared to worldwide events, "hull/watertight failure" and "foundering" events have occurred at a lower frequency in Öresund. Most of the marine events were the result of a combination of actions and circumstances, all of which contribute in varying degrees to the outcome. Causes and contributing factors of the above marine events were: human, technical, weather/sea and other related factors (such as vessel traffic) where the human related factor was dominant. The third-party claim cost of the worst scenario of an oil spill in Öresund is estimated at $ 300 millions. The average risk cost of "large" oil spills each year in Öresund is estimated at US$ 223,500. However, this figure does not include "operational" oil spills resulting during loading, discharging, and other oil-related activities. Because of prices and "social" inflation, claims have increased over time. Higher claims are expected in the future. More than 20 suggestions for safety-increasing actions are presented and discussed in Chapter 8.
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| 4. |
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| 5. |
- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Design inom olycks- och krishanteringsområdet med fokus på ledning
- 2013
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Emergency and crisis management research is tightly coupled to practical problems. Yet, within that research tradition, surprisingly little has been done in terms of developing a practice of design research. The present report presents literature surveys aimed at investigating how, and to what extent, such research has been conducted. Although the focus is on command and control problems the material is also valid for other types of crisis management research. The report contains information from one interview study and two workshops in Sweden where similar issues have been investigated from a practical standpoint. We conclude that there is not much research in the area of crisis management that can be classified as design research and the examples that have been found often miss crucial elements. We end the report by suggesting a framework for design research in the field of risk and emergency and crisis management research.
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| 6. |
- Uhr, Christian, et al.
(författare)
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Att åstadkomma inriktning och samordning - 7 analyser utifrån hanteringen av skogsbranden i Västmanland 2014
- 2015
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Bok (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- I antologin får du ta del av sju olika analyser av det utmanande arbetet med att åstadkomma inriktning och samordning av samhällets resurser i samband med skogsbranden. Publikationen är ett utvecklingsbidrag och är tänkt att ge vägledning till förbättrad förmåga att hantera framtidens samhällsstörningar. Bakom texterna står sju olika författare som utgått från ambitionen att publicera ett transparant resonemang där slutsatserna är välgrundade och tillämpliga, såväl ur ett praktiskt som ur ett teoretiskt perspektiv. Arbetet utgår från vetenskaplig metodik och grundas bland annat i ett stort antal intervjuer. Flera av författarna var dessutom närvarande under den akuta hanteringen och kunde på detta sätt samla in värdefull data. Målgruppen för materialet är alla de som på olika sätt är intresserade av utvecklingsfrågor inom området ledning och samverkan.
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| 7. |
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
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| 10. |
- Ek, Åsa
(författare)
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Fartygsolyckor i Öresund - människan, människa-teknik-systemet och organisationen som risk- och säkerhetsfaktorer
- 2000
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport är författad inom pilotprojektet ”Maritima risker i Öresundsområdet” (Sundrisk) där projektets avsikt var att genomföra en integrerad riskanalys av maritima risker i Öresundsområdet. En serie rapporter från olika discipliner har författats inom pilotprojektet. Målsättningen med delprojektet som presenteras i denna rapport var att identifiera och belysa brister i organisation och människa-tekniksystem ombord på fartyg som kan orsaka eller bidra till fartygsolyckor i Öresund. Målsättningen var vidare att påbörja utveckling av mätinstrument för att mäta säkerhetskultur i fartygsorganisationer samt att identifiera basala och tillfälliga situationsfaktorer som påverkar sjöfartens säkerhet i Öresund. De metoder som har använts i projektet är litteraturstudier inom risk- och human factors-områdena, litteraturstudier av tidigare gjorda undersökningar om arbetsförhållandena ombord på fartyg, intervjuer med yrkesgrupper inom sjöfarten, pilotstudie ombord på fartyg samt deltagande i en realistisk övning i räddningsarbete efter en simulerad fartygskollision i HH-leden i Öresund. Fallstudier av flera olyckor i Öresund där större skepp var inblandade gav exempel på otydlig ansvarsfördelning i ledningen, brister i kommunikationen ombord, besättningens utmattning och trötthet samt följder av att inte utnyttja de möjligheter som modern teknisk utrustning erbjuder. En genomgång av karakteristika för Öresund och sjöfarten där har gjorts. Som särskilda riskfaktorer i Öresund finns bl a begränsat vattendjup, starka och skiftande strömförhållanden, varierande vattenstånd samt den periodvist stora mängden fritidsbåtar som påverkar framkomligheten för större fartyg. För säkerhet torde kulturen i en organisation ha stor betydelse. Ett steg har tagits i att definiera säkerhetskultur och ta fram en metod för att mäta denna i organisationer. De egenskaper som karakteriserar en säkerhetskultur är bl a att organisationen är lärande tillika flexibel. Att organisationen är lärande inbegriper också att den är rapporterande och rättvis. Ett frågeformulär har utvecklats avsett att på ett standardiserat sätt mäta dessa med flera dimensioner av säkerhetskultur i en fartygsorganisation samt individens arbetssituation. En pilotstudie på ett fartyg i Östersjötrafik har utförts för att testa första versionen av detta frågeformulär. Resultaten från pilotstudien visade att besättningen rapporterade en speciellt god attityd till säkerhet, men att andra områden kunde vara föremål för förbättring. Frågeformuläret kan därmed bli ett instrument för proaktiva åtgärder för att öka säkerheten i en verksamhet. I vidare forskning kommer resultaten från pilotstudien att användas för framtagning av förbättrade mätverktyg. Olika systematiska studier av säkerhetskultur i Öresundsregionen och även i en vidare geografisk krets kommer att genomföras. Vi avser också göra komparativa studier där vi försöker lära av skillnader mellan olika branscher. Vidare behövs fortsatt forskning angående design av gränssnitt mellan människa och teknik. T ex bör fallstudier göras ombord på fartyg i driftsituationer angående vad som fungerar bra respektive dåligt vid hanteringen/utformningen av dessa gränssnitt speciellt i komplexa situationer.
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| 11. |
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| 12. |
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| 13. |
- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Analys av sårbarhet med hjälp av nätverksmodeller
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report presents the research concerned with vulnerability analysis of technical infrastructure networks conducted in the research framework programme called FRIVA. The report reviews how network analysis has been used to analyse the vulnerability of systems that are possible to model as networks, such as technical infrastructure systems. In addition, it proposes how these methods can be developed in order to better suit vulnerability analysis conducted with a societal perspective. In order to show the applicability of these methods, they are applied to both hypothetical and real-world systems.
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| 14. |
- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(författare)
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Metoder för risk- och sårbarhetsanalys ur ett systemperspektiv
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- An operational definition of vulnerability is proposed. The definition is used to describe and analyse different methods for risk and vulnerability analysis. Several problems related to analysing the vulnerability of a complex sociotechnical system to a specific perturbation are identified and discussed. Suggestions of how risk- and vulnerability analyses can be performed for such systems are presented.
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| 15. |
- Abrahamsson, Marcus, et al.
(författare)
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Utveckling av kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser
- 2012
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- Denna rapport utgör redovisning av ett arbete som LUCRAM (Lunds universitets centrum för riskanalys och riskhantering) har genomfört på uppdrag av Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB). Uppdraget heter ”Studie om föreskrifters inverkan på kommuners risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser avseende jämförbarhet och enhetlighet”. Inom detta uppdrag har LUCRAM genomfört en dokumentstudie av kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser i Skåne och Örebro län, samt en enkätstudie riktad till kommunerna i ovanstående län. Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om, och i så fall på vilket sätt, enhetligheten och jämförbarheten mellan olika kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser har ändrats i samband med införandet av MSB:s föreskrifter MSBFS 2010:6.
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| 16. |
- Nieminen Kristofersson, Tuija
(författare)
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Om social sårbarhet i samband med extraordinära händelser : En intervjustudie i 12 kommuner
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of this report is to study how the authorities in twelve Swedish municipalities consider social vulnerability in disasters. The study is based on telephone interviews with ten officials responsible for safety and risk analysis and with ten officials responsible for social and psychological support after disasters. Three group interviews about the support for affected citizens after the storm Gudrun in southern Sweden in 2005, the Asian tsunami in 2004 and an accident with toxic gas in 2005 were conducted with municipal officials. The municipalities represent different kinds of cities and villages in Sweden. The measures in the municipalities were performed with expert knowledge to keep the legitimacy of the municipal authorities. In some municipalities the support was performed with empowerment and was adjusted to the needs of the affected. The officials considered elderly and other people who already have care or nursing, immigrants and those without social network, as socially vulnerable. None of the respondents mentioned homeless people, tourists or illegal immigrants. These groups are often mentioned in international research. Some of the respondents discussed how far the responsibility of the municipal authorities should extend. They also discussed how much responsibility citizens living in the countryside should have for their own safety for example in case of power failure. The question ought to bring up for public and political discussion. Another question is whether the authorities or the affected have the right to define social vulnerability.
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| 17. |
- Nieminen Kristofersson, Tuija
(författare)
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Sårbar men inte ensam : en studie av några drabbades erfarenheter av Kemiraolyckan, tsunamin och stormen Gudrun
- 2007
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- The aim of this report is to illustrate how the affected after disasters have experienced their situation and the support from authorities. The study is based on interviews with 16 persons after the storm Gudrun in southern Sweden 2005, the Asian tsunami 2004 and an accident with toxic gas in a Swedish town 2005. The affected received most support, both practical and emotional, from their social networks. Conditions for that kind of support is the emotional energy and solidarity (Collins 2004) created in the network before the disaster. The affected after the toxic gas accident had a great need for information about the disaster. Most vulnerable were those who already were in need of care. After the tsunami the relatives in Sweden needed information and emotional support. They received support from their social network and the municipality crisis support. Some of them asked for support in dealing with meaning of grief and death. Their vulnerability is not so much social but existential about the great questions in human life. They also mentioned the differences between women and men. Men did not always share their emotional experiences in the counseling or in group discussions. The affected after the tsunami were offered counseling immediately but they had need for that kind of service even several months after the disaster. After the storm Gudrun people living in the countryside were affected by trouble in the infrastructure. They also lost forest, and their situation is characterized as economic vulnerability. After the storm the affected were able, for example, to do efforts to make the ways open again. They also could go and see elderly people living alone far away in the forests before the authorities could. Therefore, the municipality authorities have started a discussion how to cooperate with the farmer’s organisation in case of disasters.
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| 18. |
- Paulsson, Ulf, et al.
(författare)
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Changed Supply Chain Disruption Risks through Installation of a Pasteurizer – the case of Brämhults Juice AB
- 2008
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Rapport (populärvet., debatt m.m.)abstract
- Brämhults Juice AB is a Swedish company producing fresh juice for the Scandinavian market. Fresh juice is rich in taste but has limited durability and must be treated with special care throughout the whole supply chain. Not only will the quality of the product be affected if mistreated, but there are also contamination risks meaning that people actually could get sick, although the risk is very small. There are also other kinds of flow-related risks like single-sourced packages. To reduce the risk of spoiled juice, Brämhults installed a pasteurizer in their production process during spring 2005. An interesting question is how this affected the risks in the supply chain flow. One of the authors (Paulsson 2007) has in another study developed a model, called the DRISC (Disruption Risks In Supply Chains) model, for the structuring, evaluation and handling of risks related to disruptions in the product flow in the supply chain. The DRISC model, seen from the angle of an individual (focal) company in the supply chain, covers all product flow-related disruption risks in the total supply chain from natural resources to the delivered final product, and makes it possible to classify them into 15 different risk exposure boxes, of which 3 boxes have “known result impact” and 12 have “expected result impact”, and also to summarize them in a figure for the total negative result impact. The risk analysis phase of the model is applied in the project to Brämhults juice before and after the installation of the pasteurizer in order to see the effects on the risk "picture". The analysis showed that there was an increase in two of the three “known result impact boxes” and a decrease in the third one. There was also a decrease in eight of the “expected result impact boxes”, and the remaining four were unchanged. Especially interesting is that the three risks linked to market confidence, which before were high or very high, were now all medium. There has also been a change towards comparatively more known result impacts and fewer expected result impacts. The investment in the pasteurizer was about 2 million SEK, and there was a minor increase in the operating costs by 800.000 SEK annually. Since the costs for returns and withdrawals caused by spoiled juice, which before the pasteurizer were about 6 million SEK annually, dropped by about 90 %, the investment has had a payback time of about 5 months. But the pasteurizer also prolonged durability from 10 to 18 days, thereby making it possible for Brämhults to change from distribution by the company’s own drivers and lorries to all the different shops over to transporting to a limited number of DCs (distribution centres) belonging to different food chains. If we split the pasteurizer investment 50/50 on risk and on distribution, we will get a payback time concerning the risk part of the investment of only 2 to 3 months, indicating that it was a very profitable investment. In the costs for returns and withdrawals, only the direct, immediate costs are included. If the negative effects of disruptions on future sales are also considered, the payback time will be even shorter.
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| 19. |
- Paulsson, Ulf
(författare)
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Supply chain flows in and across Öresund before and after the Öresund link -facts, risks and a risk analysis model
- 2003
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This research report has two objectives, both focusing on the supply chain flows passing or crossing the Öresund maritime area. The first objective is to identify and describe the flows in Öresund and the risks for disturbances in those flows before and after the opening of the Öresund Link in July 2000. With the opening of the Öresund Link a new goods and passenger flow was created. As a result two ferry lines, Limhamn-Dragör (car ferry) and Danlink (rail ferry) between Helsingborg-Copenhagen, and also some passenger lines between Denmark and Sweden were closed down. The total volume of passengers, vehicles and rail transported goods crossing the Öresund has increased substantially after the opening of the Öresund Link, the volume of transported goods to/from the ports in the region has decreased, an effect of the finishing and opening of the Öresund link, and the passages through Öresund has declined somewhat. The total risk situation in Öresund has probably become better because of fewer crossing flows at sea level, improvements have been made in the Drogden and Flint channels, and there is no big catamaran ferry operating between Limhamn and Dragör any more, and those risk-reducing factors are together more important than the risks connected to the new flow - the crossing of Öresund by the Öresund Link - or the link as a new obstacle in Öresund. The second objective of the study is to develop a multi-purpose flow risk model for risk analysis of disturbances in the supply chain flows passing or crossing Öresund, focusing on the economic consequences following from those disturbances. The model developed can be used to identify, describe and assess risks and to consider, choose and implement actions.
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| 20. |
- Magnusson, Sven Erik, et al.
(författare)
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Co-operative Nordic Research
- 1999
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Rapport (övrigt vetenskapligt/konstnärligt)abstract
- This report has a two-fold objective. -To identify the changing risk management needs in the private and public sectors and the corresponding needs for development of risk analysis methods and related practices. -To list examples of projects where Nordic co-operation between industry, authorities and universities can be effective for increasing the contribution of risk management to industrial growth and a sustainable society. A Nordic expert group, funded by the Nordic Industrial Fund, identified the urgent need for co-operative Nordic risk management research and suggested a structure for co-operation and cross-disciplinary research and for dissemination of knowledge and implementation. The group also specified research areas and project ideas for future development into actual research projects. A workshop with participants from the Nordic countries was one source of ideas. The expert group in addition identified a number of basic resource areas necessary for the development of more efficient risk management industry and which would benefit from Nordic co-operation. A Nordic risk management academy and a Nordic risk management network should be formed. Also a Nordic graduate school on safety and risk management for PhD students should be organized on a Nordic basis in order to ensure competence at all Institutes of Technology, all Business Schools and other education bodies of importance for risk management.
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