| 1. |
- Almeida, Rafael M., et al.
(author)
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Correspondence : Emissions from Amazonian dams
- 2013
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 3:12, s. 1005-1005
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 2. |
- Angeler, David
(author)
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Shifting avian spatial regimes in a changing climate
- 2019
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9, s. 562-566
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the present era of rapid global change, development of early warnings of ecological regime shifts is a major focus in ecology. Identifying and tracking shifts in spatial regimes is a new approach with potential to enhance understanding of ecological responses to global change. Here, we show strong directional non-stationarity of spatial regimes identified by avian community body mass data. We do this by tracking 46 years of avian spatial regime movement in the North American Great Plains. The northernmost spatial regime boundary moved >590 km northward, and the southernmost boundary moved >260 km northward. Tracking spatial regimes affords decadal planning horizons and moves beyond the predominately temporal early warnings of the past by providing spatiotemporally explicit detection of regime shifts in systems without fixed boundaries.
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| 3. |
- Antão, Laura H., et al.
(author)
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Climate change reshuffles northern species within their niches
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12:6, s. 587-592
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate change is a pervasive threat to biodiversity. While range shifts are a known consequence of climate warming contributing to regional community change, less is known about how species’ positions shift within their climatic niches. Furthermore, whether the relative importance of different climatic variables prompting such shifts varies with changing climate remains unclear. Here we analysed four decades of data for 1,478 species of birds, mammals, butterflies, moths, plants and phytoplankton along a 1,200 km high latitudinal gradient. The relative importance of climatic drivers varied non-uniformly with progressing climate change. While species turnover among decades was limited, the relative position of species within their climatic niche shifted substantially. A greater proportion of species responded to climatic change at higher latitudes, where changes were stronger. These diverging climate imprints restructure a full biome, making it difficult to generalize biodiversity responses and raising concerns about ecosystem integrity in the face of accelerating climate change.
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| 4. |
- Asayama, Shinichiro, et al.
(author)
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Three institutional pathways to envision the future of the IPCC
- 2023
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Portfolio. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 13:9, s. 877-880
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The IPCC has been successful at building its scientific authority, but it will require institutional reform for staying relevant to new and changing political contexts. Exploring a range of alternative future pathways for the IPCC can help guide crucial decisions about redefining its purpose.
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| 5. |
- Audet, Joachim
(author)
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Synergy between nutrients and warming enhances methane ebullition from experimental lakes
- 2018
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 8, s. 156-160
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Lakes and ponds are important natural sources of the potent greenhouse gas methane (CH4), with small shallow waters identified as particular hotspots(1,2). Ebullition (bubbles) of CH4 makes up a large proportion of total CH4 flux(3,4). However, difficulty measuring such episodic events(5) makes prediction of how ebullition responds to nutrient enrichment and rising temperatures challenging. Here, the world's longest running, mesocosm-based, shallow lake climate change experiment was used to investigate how the combination of warming and eutrophication (that is, nutrient enrichment) affects CH4 ebullition. Eutrophication without heating increased the relative contribution of ebullition from 51% to 75%. More strikingly the combination of nutrient enrichment and experimental warming treatments of +2-3 degrees C and +4-5 degrees C had a synergistic effect, increasing mean annual ebullition by at least 1900 mg CH4-C m(-2) yr(-1). In contrast, diffusive flux showed no response to eutrophication and only a small increase at higher temperatures (average 63 mg CH4-C m(-2) yr(-1)). As shallow lakes are the most common lake type globally, abundant in highly climate sensitive regions(6) and most vulnerable to eutrophication, these results suggest their current and future contributions to atmospheric CH4 concentrations may be significantly underestimated.
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| 6. |
- Bain, Paul G., et al.
(author)
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Co-benefits of addressing climate change can motivate action around the world
- 2016
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6, s. 154-157
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Personal and political action on climate change is traditionally thought to be motivated by people accepting its reality and importance. However, convincing the public that climate change is real faces powerful ideological obstacles1, 2, 3, 4, and climate change is slipping in public importance in many countries5, 6. Here we investigate a different approach, identifying whether potential co-benefits of addressing climate change7 could motivate pro-environmental behaviour around the world for both those convinced and unconvinced that climate change is real. We describe an integrated framework for assessing beliefs about co-benefits8, distinguishing social conditions (for example, economic development, reduced pollution or disease) and community character (for example, benevolence, competence). Data from all inhabited continents (24 countries; 6,196 participants) showed that two co-benefit types, Development (economic and scientific advancement) and Benevolence (a more moral and caring community), motivated public, private and financial actions to address climate change to a similar degree as believing climate change is important. Critically, relationships were similar for both convinced and unconvinced participants, showing that co-benefits can motivate action across ideological divides. These relationships were also independent of perceived climate change importance, and could not be explained by political ideology, age, or gender. Communicating co-benefits could motivate action on climate change where traditional approaches have stalled.
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| 7. |
- Barnes, Michele L., et al.
(author)
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Social determinants of adaptive and transformative responses to climate change
- 2020
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10:9, s. 823-828
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- To cope effectively with the impacts of climate change, people will need to change existing practices or behaviours within existing social-ecological systems (adaptation) or enact more fundamental changes that can alter dominant social-ecological relationships and create new systems or futures (transformation). Here we use multilevel network modelling to examine how different domains of adaptive capacity-assets, flexibility, organization, learning, socio-cognitive constructs and agency-are related to adaptive and transformative actions. We find evidence consistent with an influence process in which aspects of social organization (exposure to others in social networks) encourage both adaptive and transformative actions among Papua New Guinean islanders experiencing climate change impacts. Adaptive and transformative actions are also related to social-ecological network structures between people and ecological resources that enable learning and the internalization of ecological feedbacks. Agency is also key, yet we show that while perceived power may encourage adaptations, it may discourage more transformative actions. Multilevel network modelling shows that social network exposure promotes both adaptive and transformative responses to climate change among Papua New Guinean islanders. Different social-ecological network structures are associated with adaptation versus transformation.
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| 8. |
- Barrett, Scott, et al.
(author)
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Sensitivity of collective action to uncertainty about climate tipping points
- 2014
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 4:1, s. 36-39
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite more than two decades of diplomatic effort, concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to trend upwards, creating the risk that we may someday cross a threshold for 'dangerous' climate change. Although climate thresholds are very uncertain, new research is trying to devise 'early warning signals' of an approaching tipping point. This research offers a tantalizing promise: whereas collective action fails when threshold uncertainty is large, reductions in this uncertainty may bring about the behavioural change needed to avert a climate 'catastrophe'. Here we present the results of an experiment, rooted in a game-theoretic model, showing that behaviour differs markedly either side of a dividing line for threshold uncertainty. On one side of the dividing line, where threshold uncertainty is relatively large, free riding proves irresistible and trust illusive, making it virtually inevitable that the tipping point will be crossed. On the other side, where threshold uncertainty is small, the incentive to coordinate is strong and trust more robust, often leading the players to avoid crossing the tipping point. Our results show that uncertainty must be reduced to this 'good' side of the dividing line to stimulate the behavioural shift needed to avoid 'dangerous' climate change. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved.
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| 9. |
- Berg, Alexis, et al.
(author)
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Land-atmosphere feedbacks amplify aridity increase over land under global warming
- 2016
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6:9, s. 869-874
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The response of the terrestrial water cycle to global warming is central to issues including water resources, agriculture and ecosystem health. Recent studies indicate that aridity, defined in terms of atmospheric supply (precipitation, P) and demand (potential evapotranspiration, E p) of water at the land surface, will increase globally in a warmer world. Recently proposed mechanisms for this response emphasize the driving role of oceanic warming and associated atmospheric processes. Here we show that the aridity response is substantially amplified by land-atmosphere feedbacks associated with the land surface's response to climate and CO 2 change. Using simulations from the Global Land Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE)-CMIP5 experiment, we show that global aridity is enhanced by the feedbacks of projected soil moisture decrease on land surface temperature, relative humidity and precipitation. The physiological impact of increasing atmospheric CO 2 on vegetation exerts a qualitatively similar control on aridity. We reconcile these findings with previously proposed mechanisms by showing that the moist enthalpy change over land is unaffected by the land hydrological response. Thus, although oceanic warming constrains the combined moisture and temperature changes over land, land hydrology modulates the partitioning of this enthalpy increase towards increased aridity.
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| 10. |
- Berghuijs, Wouter R., et al.
(author)
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Groundwater recharge is sensitive to changing long-term aridity
- 2024
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In: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 14, s. 357-363
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Sustainable groundwater use relies on adequate rates of groundwater recharge, which are expected to change with climate change. However, climate impacts on recharge remain uncertain due to a paucity of measurements of recharge trends globally. Here we leverage the relationship between climatic aridity and long-term recharge measurements at 5,237 locations globally to identify regions where recharge is most sensitive to changes in climatic aridity. Recharge is most sensitive to climate changes in regions where potential evapotranspiration slightly exceeds precipitation, meaning even modest aridification can substantially decrease groundwater recharge. Future climate-induced recharge changes are expected to be dominated by precipitation changes, whereby changes in groundwater recharge will be amplified relative to precipitation changes. Recharge is more sensitive to changes in aridity than global hydrological models suggest. Consequently, the effects of climatic changes on groundwater replenishment and their impacts on the sustainability of groundwater use by humans and ecosystems probably exceed previous predictions.
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| 11. |
- Bergquist, Magnus, 1983, et al.
(author)
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Meta-analyses of fifteen determinants of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 235-240
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Public acceptance is a precondition for implementing taxes and laws aimed at mitigating climate change. However, it still remains challenging to understand its determinants for the climate community. Here, we use a meta-analytic approach to examine the role of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws. Fifteen variables were examined by synthesizing 89 datasets from 51 articles across 33 countries, with a total sample of 119,465 participants. Among all factors, perceived fairness and effectiveness were the most important determinants. Self-enhancement values and knowledge about climate change showed weak relationships and demographic variables showed only weak or close to zero effects. Our meta-analytic results provide useful insights and have the potential to inform climate change researchers, practitioners and policymakers to better design climate policy instruments.
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| 12. |
- Bergquist, Magnus, 1983, et al.
(author)
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The importance of perceived fairness to public opinion about climate change policies
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 226-227
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This is a "Research Briefing" summarizing Bergquist et al. (2022) Meta-analyses of fifteen determinants of public opinion about climate change taxes and laws. Nat. Clim. Change https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01297-6
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| 13. |
- Bi, Stephen L., et al.
(author)
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Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum
- 2023
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-6798 .- 1758-678X. ; 13:2, s. 130-139
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The global phase-out of coal by mid-century is considered vital to the Paris Agreement to limit warming well-below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Since the inception of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) at COP23, political ambitions to accelerate the decline of coal have mounted to become the foremost priority at COP26. However, mitigation research lacks the tools to assess whether this bottom-up momentum can self-propagate toward Paris alignment. Here, we introduce dynamic policy evaluation (DPE), an evidence-based approach for emulating real-world policy-making. Given empirical relationships established between energy-economic developments and policy adoption, we endogenize national political decision-making into the integrated assessment model REMIND via multistage feedback loops with a probabilistic coalition accession model. DPE finds global PPCA participation <5% likely against a current policies backdrop and, counterintuitively, foresees that intracoalition leakage risks may severely compromise sector-specific, demand-side action. DPE further enables policies to interact endogenously, demonstrated here by the PPCA’s path-dependence to COVID-19 recovery investments.
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| 14. |
- Björkman, Anne, 1981, et al.
(author)
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Winter in a warming Arctic
- 2020
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 10, s. 1071-1073
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Winter conditions have typically been downplayed or oversimplified in past estimations of terrestrial Arctic vegetation shifts in relation to climate change. A study now demonstrates the importance of fine-scale variation in winter temperature in explaining the composition and diversity of Arctic plant communities.
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| 15. |
- Blicharska, Malgorzata, et al.
(author)
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Steps to overcome the North-South divide in research relevant to climate change policy and practice
- 2017
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7, s. 21-27
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A global North-South divide in research, and its negative consequences, has been highlighted in various scientific disciplines. Northern domination of science relevant to climate change policy and practice, and limited research led by Southern researchers in Southern countries, may hinder further development and implementation of global climate change agreements and nationally appropriate actions. Despite efforts to address the North-South divide, progress has been slow. In this Perspective, we illustrate the extent of the divide, review underlying issues and analyse their consequences for climate change policy development and implementation. We propose a set of practical steps in both Northern and Southern countries that a wide range of actors should take at global, regional and national scales to span the North-South divide, with examples of some actions already being implemented.
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| 16. |
- Blicharska, Malgorzata, 1979-, et al.
(author)
-
Steps to overcome the North-South divide in research relevant to climate-change policy and practice
- 2017
-
In: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 7, s. 21-27
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A global North-South divide in research, and its negative consequences, has been highlighted in various scientific disciplines. Northern domination of science relevant to climate change policy and practice, and limited research led by Southern researchers in Southern countries, may hinder further development and implementation of global climate change agreements and nationally appropriate actions. Despite efforts to address the North-South divide, progress has been slow. In this Perspective, we illustrate the extent of the divide, review underlying issues and analyse their consequences for climate change policy development and implementation. We propose a set of practical steps in both Northern and Southern countries that a wide range of actors should take at global, regional and national scales to span the North-South divide, with examples of some actions already being implemented.
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| 17. |
- Blume-Werry, Gesche, 1985-
(author)
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The belowground growing season
- 2022
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 12, s. 11-12
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)
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| 18. |
- Boas, Ingrid, et al.
(author)
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Climate Migration Myths
- 2019
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 9:12, s. 901-903
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Misleading claims about mass migration induced by climate change continue to surface in both academia and policy. This requires a new research agenda on ‘climate mobilities’ that moves beyond simplistic assumptions and more accurately advances knowledge of the nexus between human mobility and climate change.
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| 19. |
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| 20. |
- Boyd, Emily, et al.
(author)
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Building resilience to face recurring environmental crisis in African Sahel
- 2013
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In: Nature Climate Change. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 3:7, s. 631-637
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The present food shortages in the Horn of Africa and the West African Sahel are affecting 31 million people. Such continuing and future crises require that people in the region adapt to an increasing and potentially irreversible global sustainability challenge. Given this situation and that short-term weather and seasonal climate forecasting have limited skill for West Africa, the Rainwatch project illustrates the value of near real-time monitoring and improved communication for the unfavourable 2011 West African monsoon, the resulting severe drought-induced humanitarian impacts continuing into 2012, and their exacerbation by flooding in 2012. Rainwatch is now coupled with a boundary organization (Africa Climate Exchange, AfClix) with the aim of integrating the expertise and actions of relevant institutions, agencies and stakeholders to broker ground-based dialogue to promote resilience in the face of recurring crisis.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Brown, Sally, et al.
(author)
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Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation
- 2014
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Nature Publishing Group. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 4:9, s. 752-755
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Journal article (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports reflect evolving attitudes in adapting to sea-level rise by taking a systems approach and recognizing that multiple responses exist to achieve a less hazardous coast.
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| 23. |
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| 24. |
- Buck, Holly Jean, et al.
(author)
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Why residual emissions matter right now
- 2023
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1758-6798 .- 1758-678X. ; 13:4, s. 351-358
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Net-zero targets imply that continuing residual emissions will be balanced by carbon dioxide removal. However, residual emissions are typically not well defined, conceptually or quantitatively. We analysed governments’ long-term strategies submitted to the UNFCCC to explore projections of residual emissions, including amounts and sectors. We found substantial levels of residual emissions at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, on average 18% of current emissions for Annex I countries. The majority of strategies were imprecise about which sectors residual emissions would originate from, and few offered specific projections of how residual emissions could be balanced by carbon removal. Our findings indicate the need for a consistent definition of residual emissions, as well as processes that standardize and compare expectations about residual emissions across countries. This is necessary for two reasons: to avoid projections of excessive residuals and correspondent unsustainable or unfeasible carbon-removal levels and to send clearer signals about the temporality of fossil fuel use.
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| 25. |
- Bunse, Carina, et al.
(author)
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Response of marine bacterioplankton pH homeostasis gene expression to elevated CO2
- 2016
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In: Nature Climate Change. - : Macmillan Publishers Ltd.. - 1758-678X .- 1758-6798. ; 6:5, s. 483-487
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Human-induced ocean acidification impacts marine life. Marine bacteria are major drivers of biogeochemical nutrient cycles and energy fluxes1; hence, understanding their performance under projected climate change scenarios is crucial for assessing ecosystem functioning. Whereas genetic and physiological responses of phytoplankton to ocean acidification are being disentangled2, 3, 4, corresponding functional responses of bacterioplankton to pH reduction from elevated CO2 are essentially unknown. Here we show, from metatranscriptome analyses of a phytoplankton bloom mesocosm experiment, that marine bacteria responded to lowered pH by enhancing the expression of genes encoding proton pumps, such as respiration complexes, proteorhodopsin and membrane transporters. Moreover, taxonomic transcript analysis showed that distinct bacterial groups expressed different pH homeostasis genes in response to elevated CO2. These responses were substantial for numerous pH homeostasis genes under low-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a <2.5 μg l−1); however, the changes in gene expression under high-chlorophyll conditions (chlorophyll a >20 μg l−1) were low. Given that proton expulsion through pH homeostasis mechanisms is energetically costly, these findings suggest that bacterioplankton adaptation to ocean acidification could have long-term effects on the economy of ocean ecosystems.
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