1. |
- Householder, John Ethan, et al.
(author)
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One sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is dependent on river floodplains
- 2024
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In: NATURE ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION. - 2397-334X.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Amazonia's floodplain system is the largest and most biodiverse on Earth. Although forests are crucial to the ecological integrity of floodplains, our understanding of their species composition and how this may differ from surrounding forest types is still far too limited, particularly as changing inundation regimes begin to reshape floodplain tree communities and the critical ecosystem functions they underpin. Here we address this gap by taking a spatially explicit look at Amazonia-wide patterns of tree-species turnover and ecological specialization of the region's floodplain forests. We show that the majority of Amazonian tree species can inhabit floodplains, and about a sixth of Amazonian tree diversity is ecologically specialized on floodplains. The degree of specialization in floodplain communities is driven by regional flood patterns, with the most compositionally differentiated floodplain forests located centrally within the fluvial network and contingent on the most extraordinary flood magnitudes regionally. Our results provide a spatially explicit view of ecological specialization of floodplain forest communities and expose the need for whole-basin hydrological integrity to protect the Amazon's tree diversity and its function.
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2. |
- Luize, Bruno Garcia, et al.
(author)
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Geography and ecology shape the phylogenetic composition of Amazonian tree communities
- 2024
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In: JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY. - 0305-0270 .- 1365-2699.
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aim: Amazonia hosts more tree species from numerous evolutionary lineages, both young and ancient, than any other biogeographic region. Previous studies have shown that tree lineages colonized multiple edaphic environments and dispersed widely across Amazonia, leading to a hypothesis, which we test, that lineages should not be strongly associated with either geographic regions or edaphic forest types. Location: Amazonia. Taxon: Angiosperms (Magnoliids; Monocots; Eudicots). Methods: Data for the abundance of 5082 tree species in 1989 plots were combined with a mega-phylogeny. We applied evolutionary ordination to assess how phylogenetic composition varies across Amazonia. We used variation partitioning and Moran's eigenvector maps (MEM) to test and quantify the separate and joint contributions of spatial and environmental variables to explain the phylogenetic composition of plots. We tested the indicator value of lineages for geographic regions and edaphic forest types and mapped associations onto the phylogeny. Results: In the terra firme and v & aacute;rzea forest types, the phylogenetic composition varies by geographic region, but the igap & oacute; and white-sand forest types retain a unique evolutionary signature regardless of region. Overall, we find that soil chemistry, climate and topography explain 24% of the variation in phylogenetic composition, with 79% of that variation being spatially structured (R-2 = 19% overall for combined spatial/environmental effects). The phylogenetic composition also shows substantial spatial patterns not related to the environmental variables we quantified (R-2 = 28%). A greater number of lineages were significant indicators of geographic regions than forest types. Main Conclusion: Numerous tree lineages, including some ancient ones (>66 Ma), show strong associations with geographic regions and edaphic forest types of Amazonia. This shows that specialization in specific edaphic environments has played a long-standing role in the evolutionary assembly of Amazonian forests. Furthermore, many lineages, even those that have dispersed across Amazonia, dominate within a specific region, likely because of phylogenetically conserved niches for environmental conditions that are prevalent within regions.
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3. |
- ter Steege, Hans, et al.
(author)
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Mapping density, diversity and species-richness of the Amazon tree flora
- 2023
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In: COMMUNICATIONS BIOLOGY. - 2399-3642. ; 6:1
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Using 2.046 botanically-inventoried tree plots across the largest tropical forest on Earth, we mapped tree species-diversity and tree species-richness at 0.1-degree resolution, and investigated drivers for diversity and richness. Using only location, stratified by forest type, as predictor, our spatial model, to the best of our knowledge, provides the most accurate map of tree diversity in Amazonia to date, explaining approximately 70% of the tree diversity and species-richness. Large soil-forest combinations determine a significant percentage of the variation in tree species-richness and tree alpha-diversity in Amazonian forest-plots. We suggest that the size and fragmentation of these systems drive their large-scale diversity patterns and hence local diversity. A model not using location but cumulative water deficit, tree density, and temperature seasonality explains 47% of the tree species-richness in the terra-firme forest in Amazonia. Over large areas across Amazonia, residuals of this relationship are small and poorly spatially structured, suggesting that much of the residual variation may be local. The Guyana Shield area has consistently negative residuals, showing that this area has lower tree species-richness than expected by our models. We provide extensive plot meta-data, including tree density, tree alpha-diversity and tree species-richness results and gridded maps at 0.1-degree resolution. A study mapping the tree species richness in Amazonian forests shows that soil type exerts a strong effect on species richness, probably caused by the areas of these forest types. Cumulative water deficit, tree density and temperature seasonality affect species richness at a regional scale.
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4. |
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5. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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6. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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7. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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8. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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9. |
- Huang, Xiaoyan, et al.
(author)
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Mediterranean diet, kidney function, and mortality in men with CKD
- 2013
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In: Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN. - 1555-905X .- 1555-9041. ; 8:9, s. 1548-1555
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Adherence to a Mediterranean diet may link to a better preserved kidney function in the community as well as a favorable cardiometabolic profile and reduced mortality risk in individuals with manifest CKD.DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Dietary habits were determined by 7-day dietary records in a population-based cohort of 1110 Swedish men (age 70 years) from 1991 to 1995, 506 of whom were considered to have CKD because of a GFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). A Mediterranean Diet Score was calculated, and participants were categorized as having low, medium, or high adherence. Adequate dietary reporters were identified with Goldberg cutoffs (n=597). Deaths were registered during a median follow-up of 9.9 years.RESULTS: Compared with low adherents, medium and high adherents were 23% and 42% less likely to have CKD, respectively (adjusted odds ratio [95% confidence interval]=0.77 [0.57 to 1.05] and 0.58 [0.38 to 0.87], respectively, P for trend=0.04). Among those individuals with CKD, phosphate intake and net endogenous acid production were progressively lower across increasing adherence groups. No differences were observed regarding other cardiometabolic risk factors across adherence groups. As many as 168 (33%) CKD individuals died during follow-up. Compared with low adherents, proportional hazards regression associated medium and high adherents to a 25% and 23% lower mortality risk, respectively (adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval]=0.75 [0.52 to 1.06] and 0.77 [0.44 to 1.36], respectively, P for trend=0.10). Sensitivity analyses showed significant and stronger associations when only adequate dietary reporters were considered.CONCLUSIONS: Adherence to a Mediterranean dietary pattern is associated with lower likelihood of CKD in elderly men. A greater adherence to this diet independently predicted survival in those patients with manifest CKD. Clinical trials are warranted to test the hypothesis that following such a diet could improve outcomes (independent of other healthy lifestyles) in CKD patients.
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10. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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11. |
- Mokdad, Ali H., et al.
(author)
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Diabetes mellitus and chronic kidney disease in the Eastern Mediterranean Region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
- 2018
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In: International Journal of Public Health. - : SPRINGER BASEL AG. - 1661-8556 .- 1661-8564. ; 63, s. 177-186
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We used findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to update our previous publication on the burden of diabetes and chronic kidney disease due to diabetes (CKD-DM) during 1990-2015. We extracted GBD 2015 estimates for prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of diabetes (including burden of low vision due to diabetes, neuropathy, and amputations and CKD-DM for 22 countries of the EMR from the GBD visualization tools. In 2015, 135,230 (95% UI 123,034-148,184) individuals died from diabetes and 16,470 (95% UI 13,977-18,961) from CKD-DM, 216 and 179% increases, respectively, compared to 1990. The total number of people with diabetes was 42.3 million (95% UI 38.6-46.4 million) in 2015. DALY rates of diabetes in 2015 were significantly higher than the expected rates based on Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Our study showed a large and increasing burden of diabetes in the region. There is an urgency in dealing with diabetes and its consequences, and these efforts should be at the forefront of health prevention and promotion.
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12. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015 : the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.
- 2016
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In: The lancet. HIV. - : Elsevier. - 2352-3018. ; 3:8, s. e361-e387
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.METHODS: For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.FINDINGS: Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.INTERPRETATION: Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.
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13. |
- Bandak, Ghassan, et al.
(author)
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Hyperkalemia After Initiating Renin-Angiotensin System Blockade : The Stockholm Creatinine Measurements (SCREAM) Project
- 2017
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In: Journal of the American Heart Association. - : WILEY. - 2047-9980. ; 6:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Concerns about hyperkalemia limit the use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors (ACE-I) and angiotensin receptor blockers (ARBs), but guidelines conflict regarding potassium-monitoring protocols. We quantified hyperkalemia monitoring and risks after ACE-I/ARB initiation and developed and validated a hyperkalemia susceptibility score.Methods and Results: We evaluated 69 426 new users of ACE-I/ARB therapy in the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements (SCREAM) project with medication initiation from January 1, 2007 to December 31, 2010, and follow-up for 1 year thereafter. Three fourths (76%) of SCREAM patients had potassium checked within the first year. Potassium >5 and >5.5 mmol/L occurred in 5.6% and 1.7%, respectively. As a comparison, we propensity-matched new ACE-I/ARB users to 20 186 new beta-blocker users in SCREAM: 64% had potassium checked. The occurrence of elevated potassium levels was similar between new beta-blocker and ACEI/ARB users without kidney disease; only at estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2) were risks higher among ACE-I/ARB users. We developed a hyperkalemia susceptibility score that incorporated estimated glomerular filtration rate, baseline potassium level, sex, diabetes mellitus, heart failure, and the concomitant use of potassium-sparing diuretics in new ACE-I/ARB users; this score accurately predicted 1-year hyperkalemia risk in the SCREAM cohort (area under the curve, 0.845, 95% CI: 0.840-0.869) and in a validation cohort from the US-based Geisinger Health System (N=19 524; area under the curve, 0.818, 95% CI: 0.794-0.841), with good calibration.Conclusions: Hyperkalemia within the first year of ACE-I/ARB therapy was relatively uncommon among people with estimated glomerular filtration rate >60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2), but rates were much higher with lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Use of the hyperkalemia susceptibility score may help guide laboratory monitoring and prescribing strategies.
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14. |
- Becher, Peter M., et al.
(author)
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Use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors in patients with heart failure and type 2 diabetes mellitus : data from the Swedish Heart Failure Registry
- 2021
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In: European Journal of Heart Failure. - : Wiley. - 1388-9842 .- 1879-0844. ; 23:6, s. 1012-1022
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Aims Use of sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) in real-world heart failure (HF) is poorly characterised. In contemporary patients with HF and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) we assessed over time SGLT2i use, clinical characteristics and outcomes associated with SGLT2i use. Methods and results Type 2 diabetes patients enrolled in the Swedish HF Registry between 2016-2018 were considered. We performed multivariable logistic regression models to assess the independent predictors of SGLT2i use and Cox regression models in a 1:3 propensity score-matched cohort and relevant subgroups to investigate the association between SGLT2i use and outcomes. Of 6805 eligible HF patients with T2DM, 376 (5.5%) received SGLT2i, whose use increased over time with 12% of patients on treatment at the end of 2018. Independent predictors of SGLT2i use were younger age, HF specialty care, ischaemic heart disease, preserved kidney function, and absence of anaemia. Over a median follow-up of 256 days, SGLT2i use was associated with a 30% lower risk of cardiovascular (CV) death/first HF hospitalisation (hazard ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.95), which was consistent regardless of ejection fraction, background metformin treatment and kidney function. SGLT2i use was also associated with a lower risk of all-cause and CV death, HF and CV hospitalisation, and CV death/myocardial infarction/stroke. Conclusion In a contemporary HF cohort with T2DM, SGLT2i use increased over time, was more common with specialist care, younger age, ischaemic heart disease, and preserved renal function, and was associated with lower mortality and morbidity.
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15. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(author)
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Endostatin, cathepsin S, and cathepsin L, and their association with inflammatory markers and mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis
- 2015
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In: Blood Purification. - : S. Karger AG. - 0253-5068 .- 1421-9735. ; 39:4, s. 259-265
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background/Aims: Although both endostatin and cathepsins S have been associated with higher mortality, data in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are scarce.Methods: A longitudinal cohort study of 207 prevalent patients undergoing hemodialysis.Results: Cathepsins S and L were associated with soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2, rho between 0.28 and 0.43, p < 0.001 for all). Weaker or absent associations between endostatin, cathepsins S and L were seen with other inflammatory biomarkers, that is, CRP, interleukin 6, pentraxin 3, and TNF. In Cox and Laplace regression models adjusted for age, sex, dialysis vintage, and diabetes: standard deviation increments of endostatin was associated with a lower mortality (hazard ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57-0.98), and with 6.8 months longer median survival.Conclusions: The high levels of endostatin, cathepsins S and L, and their associations with sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 warrant further studies exploring mortality, and the angiogenic and inflammatory pathways in ESRD. (C) 2015 S. Karger AG, Basel
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16. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(author)
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Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) is a potential biomarker of both diabetic kidney disease and future cardiovascular events in cohorts of individuals with type 2 diabetes : a proteomics approach
- 2020
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In: Upsala Journal of Medical Sciences. - : Uppsala Medical Society. - 0300-9734 .- 2000-1967. ; 25:1, s. 37-43
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a leading risk factor for end-stage renal disease and is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. It is possible that novel markers portraying the pathophysiological underpinning processes may be useful.Aim: To investigate the associations between 80 circulating proteins, measured by a proximity extension assay, and prevalent DKD and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes.Methods: We randomly divided individuals with type 2 diabetes from three cohorts into a two-thirds discovery and one-third replication set (total n = 813, of whom 231 had DKD defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mg/mL/1.73 m2 and/or urinary albumin-creatinine ratio ≥3 g/mol). Proteins associated with DKD were also assessed as predictors for incident major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in persons with DKD at baseline.Results: Four proteins were positively associated with DKD in models adjusted for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, glucose control, and diabetes medication: kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1, odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation increment, 1.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.27-2.14); growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15, OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.16-1.69); myoglobin (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.30-1.91), and matrix metalloproteinase 10 (MMP-10, OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.17-1.74). In patients with DKD, GDF-15 was significantly associated with increased risk of MACE after adjustments for baseline age, sex, microalbuminuria, and kidney function and (59 MACE events during 7 years follow-up, hazard ratio per standard deviation increase 1.43 [95% CI 1.03-1.98]) but not after further adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors.Conclusion: Our proteomics approach confirms and extends previous associations of higher circulating levels of GDF-15 with both micro- and macrovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. Our data encourage additional studies evaluating the clinical utility of our findings.
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17. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(author)
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High levels of soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 and their association with mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis
- 2015
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In: CardioRenal Medicine. - : S. Karger AG. - 1664-3828 .- 1664-5502. ; 5:2, s. 89-95
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: Circulating soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and 5TNFR2) are associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in patients with CKD or diabetes, and with higher mortality. However, data in patients with end-stage renal disease are scarce. Therefore, we analyzed serum levels of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and investigated their association with inflammatory markers and mortality in dialysis patients. Research Design and Methods: This was a longitudinal cohort study of 207 prevalent patients (median age 66 years, 56% men) undergoing hemodialysis in Stockholm, Sweden. Demographics, clinical characteristics, including comorbidities and laboratory data, were obtained at baseline, together with prospective follow-up for mortality.Results: The median sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels were 17,680 ng/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 17,023-18,337] and 24,450 ng/l (95% CI 23,721-25,179), respectively. During a follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range, 21-38), 77 patients died. There was no association between the levels of sTNFRs and mortality in Cox regression models, and no consistent trend towards higher or lower mortality was seen in Laplace regression models. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels were highly associated with other inflammatory markers including interleukin-6, pentraxin 3 and TNF-alpha. Conclusions:Prevalent hemodialysis patients have several-fold higher levels of sTNFRs compared to previous studies in CKD stage 4 patients. As no consistent association between TNFR and mortality was observed, clinical implications of measuring these receptors to predict outcome end-stage renal disease patients provide limited results.
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18. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(author)
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Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 is associated with glomerular filtration rate progression and incidence of chronic kidney disease in two community-based cohorts of elderly individuals
- 2015
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In: CardioRenal Medicine. - : S. Karger AG. - 1664-3828 .- 1664-5502. ; 5:4, s. 278-288
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective: We aimed to explore and validate the longitudinal associations between soluble tumor necrosis factor receptor 1 (sTNFR1), glomerular filtration rate (GFR) progression, and chronic kidney disease (CKD) incidence in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly individuals with prespecified subgroup analyses in individuals without prevalent diabetes.Research design and methods: Two community-based cohorts of elderly individuals were used with 5-year follow-up data on estimated GFR: the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n = 437 men; mean age: 78 years) and the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n = 703; mean age: 70 years; 51% women). GFR categories were defined as >= 60, 30-60, and <30 ml/min/1.73 m(2).Results: In longitudinal multivariable logistic regression models adjusted for inflammatory markers and established cardiovascular risk factors, higher serum sTNFR1 was significantly associated with an increased risk to progress to a lower GFR category in both ULSAM and PIVUS [odds ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.28 (95% CI 1.03-1.60) and OR 1.56 (95% CI 1.30-1.87), respectively]. Also, in subgroup analyses in individuals with a GFR >= 60 ml/min/1.73 m(2) at baseline, higher sTNFRs were associated with incident CKD after 5 years in both cohorts [ULSAM: OR per SD increase 1.49 (95% CI 1.16-1.9) and PIVUS: OR 1.84 (95% CI 1.50-2.26)]. Associations were similar in individuals without diabetes.Conclusions: Higher circulating sTNFR1 independently predicts the progression to a worse GFR category and CKD incidence in elderly individuals even in the absence of diabetes. Further studies are warranted to investigate the underlying mechanisms, and to evaluate the clinical relevance of our findings.
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19. |
- Carlsson, Axel C., et al.
(author)
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Use of a proximity extension assay proteomics chip to discover new biomarkers associated with albuminuria
- 2017
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In: European Journal of Preventive Cardiology. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 2047-4873 .- 2047-4881. ; :4, s. 340-348
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The underlying mechanisms for the development of albuminuria and the increased cardiovascular risk in patients with elevated albuminuria levels are incompletely understood. We therefore investigated the associations between 80 cardiovascular proteins and the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR).METHODS: We used a discovery/replication approach in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly patients: the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (n = 662; mean age 78 years) and the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (n = 757; mean age 75 years; 51% women). A proteomic chip with a panel of 80 plasma proteins associated with different aspects of cardiovascular disease was analysed. In the discovery cohort, we used a false discovery rate of 5% to take into account the multiple statistical testing. Nominal p values were used in the replication.RESULTS: Higher levels of T-cell immunoglobulin mucin-1, placenta growth factor, growth/differentiation factor-15, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor and kallikrein-11 were robustly associated with a higher ACR in both cohorts in multivariable linear regression models adjusted for sex, established cardiovascular risk factors, antihypertensive treatment, prevalent cardiovascular disease and glomerular filtration rate (p < 0.02 for all). All associations were also significant in separate analyses of patients without diabetes.CONCLUSIONS: We discovered and replicated associations between ACR and five cardiovascular proteins involved in tubular injury, atherosclerosis, endothelial function, heart failure, inflammation, glomerulosclerosis and podocyte injury. Our findings put forward multiplex proteomics as a promising approach to explore novel aspects of the complex detrimental interplay between kidney function and the cardiovascular system.
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20. |
- Carlsson, Axel C, et al.
(author)
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Use of proteomics to investigate kidney function decline over 5 years
- 2017
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In: American Society of Nephrology. Clinical Journal. - 1555-9041 .- 1555-905X. ; 12:8, s. 1226-1235
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Using a discovery/replication approach, we investigated associations between a multiplex panel of 80 circulating proteins associated with cardiovascular pathology or inflammation, and eGFR decline per year and CKD incidence.DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: We used two cohorts, the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors Study (PIVUS; n=687, mean age of 70 years, 51% women) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM; n=360 men, mean age of 78 years), with 5-year follow-up data on eGFR. There were 231 and 206 incident cases of CKD during follow-up in the PIVUS and ULSAM studies, respectively. Proteomic profiling of 80 proteins was assessed by a multiplex assay (proximity extension assay). The assay uses two antibodies for each protein and a PCR step to achieve a high-specific binding and the possibility to measure multiple proteins in parallel, but gives no absolute concentrations.RESULTS: In the discovery cohort from the PIVUS Study, 28 plasma proteins were significantly associated with eGFR decline per year, taking into account the multiple testing. Twenty of these proteins were significantly associated with eGFR decline per year in the replication cohort from the ULSAM Study after adjustment for age, sex, cardiovascular risk factors, medications, and urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (in order of significance: TNF-related apoptosis-inducing ligand receptor 2*, CD40L receptor, TNF receptor 1*, placenta growth factor*, thrombomodulin*, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor*, growth/differentiation factor 15*, macrophage colony-stimulating factor 1, fatty acid-binding protein*, cathepsin D, resistin, kallikrein 11*, C-C motif chemokine 3, proteinase-activated receptor 1*, cathepsin L, chitinase 3-like protein 1, TNF receptor 2*, fibroblast growth factor 23*, monocyte chemotactic protein 1, and kallikrein 6). Moreover, 11 of the proteins predicted CKD incidence (marked with * above). No protein consistently predicted eGFR decline per year independently of baseline eGFR in both cohorts.CONCLUSIONS: Several circulating proteins involved in phosphate homeostasis, inflammation, apoptosis, extracellular matrix remodeling, angiogenesis, and endothelial dysfunction were associated with worsening kidney function. Multiplex proteomics appears to be a promising way of discovering novel aspects of kidney disease pathology.
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21. |
- Carrero, Juan Jesus, et al.
(author)
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Albuminuria changes are associated with subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality
- 2017
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In: Kidney International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0085-2538 .- 1523-1755. ; 91:1, s. 244-251
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Current guidelines for chronic kidney disease (CKD) recommend using albuminuria as well as estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) to stage CKD. However, CKD progression is solely defined by change in eGFR with little regard to the risk implications of change in albuminuria. This is an observational study from the Stockholm CREAtinine Measurements (SCREAM) project, a health care utilization cohort from Stockholm, Sweden, with laboratory measures from 2006-2011 and follow-up through December 2012. Included were 31,732 individuals with two or more ambulatory urine albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR) tests. We assessed the association between change in ACR during a baseline period of 1, 2, or 3 years and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or death. Using a 2-year baseline period, there were 378 ESRD events and 1712 deaths during a median of 3 years of follow-up. Compared to stable ACR, a 4-fold increase in ACR was associated with a 3.08-times (95% confidence interval 2.59 to 3.67) higher risk of ESRD while a 4-fold decrease in ACR was associated with a 0.34-times (0.26 to 0.45) lower risk of ESRD. Similar associations were found in people with and without diabetes mellitus, with and without hypertension, and also when adjusted for the change in eGFR during the same period. The association between change in ACR and mortality was weaker: ACR increase was associated with mortality, but the relationship was largely flat for ACR decline. Results were consistent for 1-, 2-, and 3-year ACR changes. Thus, changes in albuminuria are strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and death.
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22. |
- Carrero, Juan-Jesus, et al.
(author)
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Long-term versus short-term dual antiplatelet therapy was similarly associated with a lower risk of death, stroke, or infarction in patients with acute coronary syndrome regardless of underlying kidney disease
- 2017
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In: Kidney International. - : Elsevier BV. - 0085-2538 .- 1523-1755. ; 91:1, s. 216-226
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Scarce and conflicting evidence exists on whether clopidogrel is effective and whether dual antiplatelet treatment (DAPT) is safe in patients with acute coronary syndrome and chronic kidney disease (CKD). To study this, we performed an observational, prospective, multicenter cohort study of 36,001 patients of the SWEDEHEART registry. The exposure was DAPT prolonged after 3 months versus DAPT stopped at 3 months in consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome and known serum creatinine. DAPT duration with clopidogrel and aspirin was assessed by dispensed tablets. CKD stages were classified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Study outcomes were 1) the composite of death, myocardial infarction, or ischemic stroke; 2) bleeding; or 3) the aggregate of these two outcomes within day 111 and 365 from discharge. A longer DAPT duration, as compared with 3-month DAPT, was associated with lower hazard ratios for outcome one in each CKD stratum (eGFR over 60, adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] 0.76 [0.67-0.85]; eGFR 60 and less, 0.84 [0.73-0.96], of which eGFR between 45 and 60, 0.85 [0.70-1.05], eGFR between 30 and 45, 0.78 [0.62-0.97]; eGFR 30 and less ml/min/1.73 m(2), 0.93 [0.70-1.24]. Bleeding (outcome 2) was in general more common in the longer DAPT group of each aforementioned CKD stratum. Aggregated outcome analysis (outcome 3) similarly favored longer DAPT in each stratum. There was no interaction between DAPT duration and CKD strata for any of the study outcomes. Thus, a prolonged as compared with three-month DAPT was similarly associated with a lower risk of death, stroke, or reinfarction regardless of underlying CKD.
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23. |
- Carrero, Juan Jesús
(author)
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Novel risk markers in the chronic kidney disease patient : new insights into the wasting-inflammation axis
- 2008
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) have a risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality that is 20 ]30 fold higher than that of a similar person without CKD. While traditional (i.e Framingham) risk factors certainly contribute, they cannot by themselves explain this exacerbated mortality burden. Instead, novel factors such as inflammation and protein ]energy wasting (PEW; i.e. a newly proposed term for loss of body protein mass and fuel reserves), may play a far more important role for vascular disease than in the general population. This work tries to further characterize the inflammation ]PEW interplay as well as other possible consequences of uremic inflammation. Study I explores the major determinants and clinical consequences of anorexia in hemodialysis patients. We found that self ]reported poor appetite was associated with inflammation and poor outcome. The severity of symptoms associated to poor appetite was increased in men as compared to women. Study II explores the major determinants and clinical consequences of muscle atrophy in incident and prevalent dialysis patients. We found that visual signs of muscle atrophy are more common in female dialysis patients and progressively associated with inflammation, poor nutritional and anthropometric status and increased mortality. Study III investigates the prognostic impact of the novel biomarker soluble tumor necrosis factor ]like weak inducer of apoptosis (sTWEAK) on mortality in patients undergoing hemodialysis. We found that sTWEAK may be an additive, but not a primary marker, of the high mortality rate seen in hemodialysis patients with systemic inflammation. Study IV assesses the clinical and biochemical implications of low triiodothyronine levels in end ]stage renal disease patients with normal thyroid function. We found that low triiodothyronine levels in biochemically euthyroid CKD patients are independent predictors of all ]cause and cardiovascular ]related mortality, perhaps due to an intimate association with inflammation. Study V discerns the major determinants and plausible contribution of reduced telomere length on the mortality of dialysis patients. Age, male gender and systemic inflammation were important contributors to reduced telomere length in CKD patients, which may constitute a new mortality risk factor in this population.
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24. |
- Carrero, Juan Jesus, et al.
(author)
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Warfarin, Kidney Dysfunction, and Outcomes Following Acute Myocardial Infarction in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation
- 2014
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In: Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA). - : American Medical Association (AMA). - 0098-7484 .- 1538-3598. ; 311:9, s. 919-928
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- IMPORTANCE Conflicting evidence exists regarding the association between warfarin treatment, death, and ischemic stroke incidence in patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) and atrial fibrillation. OBJECTIVE To study outcomes associated with warfarin treatment in relation to kidney function among patients with established cardiovascular disease and atrial fibrillation. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Observational, prospective, multicenter cohort study from the Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies (SWEDEHEART) registry (2003-2010), which includes all Swedish hospitals that provide care for acute cardiac diseases. Participants included consecutive survivors of an acute myocardial infarction (MI) with atrial fibrillation and known serum creatinine (N = 24 317), including 21.8% who were prescribed warfarin at discharge. Chronic kidney disease stages were classified according to estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES (1) Composite end point analysis of death, readmission due to MI, or ischemic stroke; (2) bleeding (composite of readmission due to hemorrhagic stroke, gastrointestinal bleeding, bleeding causing anemia, and others); or (3) the aggregate of these 2 outcomes within 1 year from discharge date. RESULTS A total of 5292 patients (21.8%) were treated with warfarin at discharge, and 51.7% had manifest CKD (eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) [eGFR(<60)]). Compared with no warfarin use, warfarin was associated with a lower risk of the first composite outcome (n = 9002 events) in each CKD stratum for event rates per 100 person-years: eGFR(>60) event rate, 28.0 for warfarin vs 36.1 for no warfarin; adjusted hazard ratio (HR), 0.73 (95% CI, 0.65 to 0.81); eGFR(>30-60): event rate, 48.5 for warfarin vs 63.8 for no warfarin; HR, 0.73 (95% CI, 0.66 to 0.80); eGFR(>15-30): event rate, 84.3 for warfarin vs 110.1 for no warfarin; HR, 0.84 (95% CI, 0.70-1.02); eGFR(<= 15): event rate, 83.2 for warfarin vs 128.3 for no warfarin; HR, 0.57 (95% CI, 0.37-0.86). The risk of bleeding (n = 1202 events) was not significantly higher in patients treated with warfarin in any CKD stratum for event rates per 100 person-years: eGFR(>60) event rate, 5.0 for warfarin vs 4.8 for no warfarin; HR, 1.10 (95% CI, 0.86-1.41); eGFR(>30-60) event rate, 6.8 forwarfarin vs 6.3 for no warfarin; HR, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.81-1.33); eGFR(>15-30) event rate, 9.3 forwarfarin vs 10.4 for nowarfarin; HR, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.48-1.39); eGFR(<= 15) event rate, 9.1 forwarfarin vs 13.5 for nowarfarin; HR, 0.52 (95% CI, 0.16-1.65). Warfarin use in each CKD stratum was associated with lower hazards of the aggregate outcome (n = 9592 events) for event rates per 100 person-years: eGFR(>60) event rate, 32.1 for warfarin vs 40.0 for no warfarin; HR, 0.76 (95% CI, 0.69-0.84); eGFR(>30-60) event rate, 53.6 forwarfarin vs 69.0 for nowarfarin; HR, 0.75 (95% CI, 0.68-0.82); eGFR(>15-30) event rate, 90.2 forwarfarin vs 117.7 for nowarfarin; HR, 0.82 (95% CI, 0.68-0.99); eGFR(<= 15) event rate, 86.2 forwarfarin vs 138.2 for nowarfarin; HR, 0.55 (95% CI, 0.37-0.83). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Warfarin treatment was associated with a lower 1-year risk for the composite outcome of death, MI, and ischemic stroke without a higher risk of bleeding in consecutive acute MI patients with atrial fibrillation. This association was not related to the severity of concurrent CKD.
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25. |
- Chen, Kaile, et al.
(author)
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Process mining and data mining applications in the domain of chronic diseases : A systematic review
- 2023
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In: Artificial Intelligence in Medicine. - : Elsevier BV. - 0933-3657 .- 1873-2860. ; 144
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The widespread use of information technology in healthcare leads to extensive data collection, which can be utilised to enhance patient care and manage chronic illnesses. Our objective is to summarise previous studies that have used data mining or process mining methods in the context of chronic diseases in order to identify research trends and future opportunities. The review covers articles that pertain to the application of data mining or process mining methods on chronic diseases that were published between 2000 and 2022. Articles were sourced from PubMed, Web of Science, EMBASE, and Google Scholar based on predetermined inclusion and exclusion criteria. A total of 71 articles met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Based on the literature review results, we detected a growing trend in the application of data mining methods in diabetes research. Additionally, a distinct increase in the use of process mining methods to model clinical pathways in cancer research was observed. Frequently, this takes the form of a collaborative integration of process mining, data mining, and traditional statistical methods. In light of this collaborative approach, the meticulous selection of statistical methods based on their underlying assumptions is essential when integrating these traditional methods with process mining and data mining methods. Another notable challenge is the lack of standardised guidelines for reporting process mining studies in the medical field. Furthermore, there is a pressing need to enhance the clinical interpretation of data mining and process mining results.
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