| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Blösch, Günter, et al.
(author)
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Twenty-three unsolved problems in hydrology (UPH) - a community perspective
- 2019
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In: Hydrological Sciences Journal. - : Informa UK Limited. - 0262-6667 .- 2150-3435. ; 64:10, s. 1141-1158
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper is the outcome of a community initiative to identify major unsolved scientific problems in hydrology motivated by a need for stronger harmonisation of research efforts. The procedure involved a public consultation through online media, followed by two workshops through which a large number of potential science questions were collated, prioritised, and synthesised. In spite of the diversity of the participants (230 scientists in total), the process revealed much about community priorities and the state of our science: a preference for continuity in research questions rather than radical departures or redirections from past and current work. Questions remain focused on the process-based understanding of hydrological variability and causality at all space and time scales. Increased attention to environmental change drives a new emphasis on understanding how change propagates across interfaces within the hydrological system and across disciplinary boundaries. In particular, the expansion of the human footprint raises a new set of questions related to human interactions with nature and water cycle feedbacks in the context of complex water management problems. We hope that this reflection and synthesis of the 23 unsolved problems in hydrology will help guide research efforts for some years to come.
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| 3. |
- Xue, Ru, et al.
(author)
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Variations of methane fluxes and methane microbial community composition with soil depth in the riparian buffer zone of a sponge city park
- 2023
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In: Journal of Environmental Management. - : Elsevier. - 0301-4797 .- 1095-8630. ; 339
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Riparian buffers benefit both natural and man-made ecosystems by preventing soil erosion, retaining soil nu-trients, and filtering pollutants. Nevertheless, the relationship between vertical methane fluxes, soil carbon, and methane microbial communities in riparian buffers remains unclear. This study examined vertical methane fluxes, soil carbon, and methane microbial communities in three different soil depths (0-5 cm, 5-10 cm, and 10-15 cm) within a riparian buffer of a Sponge City Park for one year. Structural equation model (SEM) results demonstrated that vertical methane fluxes varied with soil depths (lambda =-0.37) and were primarily regulated by methanogenic community structure (lambda = 0.78). Notably, mathematical regression results proposed that mcrA/ pmoA ratio (R2 = 0.8) and methanogenic alpha diversity/methanotrophic alpha diversity ratio (R2 = 0.8) could serve as valid predictors of vertical variation in methane fluxes in the riparian buffer of urban river. These findings suggest that vertical variation of methane fluxes in riparian buffer soils is mainly influenced by carbon inputs and methane microbial abundance and community diversity. The study's results quantitatively the relationship between methane fluxes in riparian buffer soils and abiotic and biotic factors in the vertical di-rection, therefore contributing to the further development of mathematical models of soil methane emissions.
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| 4. |
- Chen, David, et al.
(author)
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CHANGE-POINT ALTERATIONS OF EXTREME WATER LEVELS AND UNDERLYING CAUSES IN THE PEARL RIVER DELTA, CHINA
- 2009
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In: Rivers Research and Applications. - : Wiley. - 1535-1459 .- 1535-1467. ; 25, s. 1153-1168
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this paper, the Bayesian model and Lepage test were used to detect change point and to analyse associated statistical properties of high/low water levels in summer (June, July and August (JJA)) and winter (December, January and February (DJF)) months across the PRD (Pearl River Delta). The results indicate that: (1) two time intervals, that is 1979-1981 and 1988-1995, witness abrupt changes of SmH/SmL (summer mean high water level/summer mean low water level). The lower PRD is dominated by increased mean and coefficient of variation (Cv) of SmH. Increased mean but decreased Cv of SmL can be observed in the Mainstem Pearl River; (2) WmL (winter mean low water level) and WmH (winter mean high water level) of about 74% of the total stations have two change points occurred roughly during 1969-1971 and 1993-1995. First change points of WmH are mainly characterized by increased mean and Cv, but decreased mean and increased Cv of WmL can be observed across major parts of the PRD. The driving factors causing abrupt changes of water levels are various. Intensive human activities cannot be ignored, for example in-channel dredging and reallocation of the streamflow within the river channels due to human-induced topographical changes of river channel. Different responses of high/low water levels to externally influencing factors and interactions between influencing factors make the alterations of the water levels across the PRD more complicated. The findings of this paper will be helpful for the management of the PRD and human mitigation to natural hazards under the changing environment. Copyright (C) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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| 5. |
- Chen, Sichun, et al.
(author)
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Spatiotemporal Changes in Precipitation and Temperature in the Huaibei Plain and the Relation between Local Precipitation and Global Teleconnection Patterns
- 2019
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In: Journal of Hydrologic Engineering. - 1084-0699. ; 24:8
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Huaibei Plain is one of the most severe water scarcity areas in China. Understanding of hydroclimatic variation in this area at different timescales and its relationship with global teleconnection patterns are important for assessment of water resources utilization. In this study, spatiotemporal changes of seasonal and annual precipitation and temperature, including trend, abrupt change, variability, and periodicity were examined to recognize the potential remarkable changes during the last 41 years. The relationship between precipitation in the Huaibei Plain and teleconnection patterns using climate indexes was revealed by applying singular value decomposition. Results showed a nonsignificant annual precipitation increase about 2.4 mm/year. The annual average temperature increased about 1.2°C during 1970-2010. The abrupt change of annual precipitation mainly occurred during the 1970s and 1980s, while the primary mutation points for temperature were detected in 1990s, especially in 1997. The mean areal precipitation is characterized by a statistically significant 2- to 4-year periodicity at different phases, and the 2- to 5-year band is the major cycle for annual average temperature in this region. A statistically strong 5- to 8-year periodicity for precipitation could be detected from the middle of the 1980s to the end of the 1990s. Precipitation has positive correlation with the West Pacific Pattern and El Nino Southern Oscillation. The investigated results might have considerable implications for managing water resources in the Huaibei Plain.
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| 6. |
- Yang, Liu, et al.
(author)
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Prenatal and postnatal early life exposure to greenness and particulate matter of different size fractions in relation to childhood rhinitis : A multi-center study in China
- 2024
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In: Science of the Total Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0048-9697 .- 1879-1026. ; 938
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The impact of early life exposure to residential greenness on childhood rhinitis and its interaction with particulate matter (PM) of different size fractions remain inconsistent. Herein, we recruited 40,486 preschool children from randomly selected daycare centers in 7 cities in China from 2019 to 2020, and estimated exposure to residential greenness by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) with a 500 m buffer. Exposure to ambient PM (PM1, PM2.5, and PM10) was evaluated using a satellite-based prediction model (daily, at a resolution of 1 km × 1 km). By mixed-effect logistic regression, NDVI values during pregnancy, in the first (0–1 year old) and the second (1–2 years old) year of life were negatively associated with lifetime rhinitis (LR) and current rhinitis (CR) (P < 0.001). PM in the same time windows was associated with increased risks of LR and CR in children, with smaller size fraction of PM showing greater associations. The negative associations between prenatal and postnatal NDVI and LR and CR in preschool children remained robust after adjusting for concomitant exposure to PM, whereas the associations of postnatal NDVI and rhinitis showed significant interactions with PM. At lower levels of PM, postnatal NDVI remained negatively associated with rhinitis and was partly mediated by PM (10.0–40.9 %), while at higher levels of PM, the negative associations disappeared or even turned positive. The cut-off levels of PM were identified for each size fraction of PM. In conclusion, prenatal exposure to greenness had robust impacts in lowering the risk of childhood rhinitis, while postnatal exposure to greenness depended on the co-exposure levels to PM. This study revealed the complex interplay of greenness and PM on rhinitis in children. The exposure time window in prenatal or postnatal period and postnatal concomitant PM levels played important roles in influencing the associations between greenness, PM and rhinitis.
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| 7. |
- Chen, Huihui, et al.
(author)
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Molecular, behavioral, and growth responses of juvenile yellow catfish ( Tachysurus fulvidraco ) exposed to carbamazepine
- 2024
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In: Aquatic Toxicology. - : Elsevier. - 0166-445X .- 1879-1514. ; 271
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Carbamazepine (CBZ) is an anticonvulsant medication used to treat epilepsy and bipolar disorder. Due to its persistence and low removal rate in wastewater treatment plants, it is frequently detected in the environment, raising concerns regarding its potential adverse effects on aquatic organisms and ecosystems. In this study, we aimed to assess the impact of CBZ on the behavior and growth of juvenile yellow catfish Tachysurus fulvidraco , a native and economically important species in China. Fish were exposed to CBZ at three concentrations of 1, 10, or 100 mu g/L for 14 days. The fish exposed to 10 and 100 mu g/L of CBZ exhibited decreased feeding, and a significant increase in cannibalistic tendencies was observed in fish exposed to 100 mu g/L CBZ. Acetylcholinesterase activity was increased in the brain of fish exposed to 100 mu g/L CBZ. CBZ also inhibited the growth of yellow catfish. To better elucidate mechanisms of toxicity, transcriptomics was conducted in both the brain and liver. In the brain, gene networks associated with neurotransmitter dysfunction were altered by CBZ, as well as networks associated with mitochondrial dysfunction and metabolism. In the liver, gene networks associated with the immune system were altered by CBZ. The current study improves comprehension of the sub-lethal effects of CBZ and reveals novel insight into molecular and biochemical pathways disrupted by CBZ, identifying putative key events associated with reduced growth and altered behavior. This study emphasizes the necessity for improved comprehension of the effects of pharmaceutical contaminants on fish at environmentally relevant levels.
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| 8. |
- Chen, Xiaohong, et al.
(author)
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Hydrological Design of Nonstationary Flood Extremes and Durations in Wujiang River, South China : Changing Properties, Causes, and Impacts
- 2013
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In: Mathematical problems in engineering (Print). - : Hindawi Limited. - 1024-123X .- 1563-5147. ; , s. 527461-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The flood-duration-frequency (QDF) analysis is performed using annual maximum streamflow series of 1-10 day durations observed at Pingshi and Lishi stations in southern China. The trends and change point of annual maximum flood flow and flood duration are also investigated by statistical tests. The results indicate that (1) the annual maximum flood flow only has a marginally increasing trend, whereas the flood duration exhibits a significant decreasing trend at the 0.10 significant level. The change point for the annual maximum flood flow series was found in 1991 and after which the mean maximum flood flow increased by 45.26%. (2) The period after 1991 is characterized by frequent and shorter duration floods due to increased rainstorm. However, land use change in the basin was found intensifying the increased tendency of annual maximum flow after 1991. And (3) under nonstationary environmental conditions, alternative definitions of return period should be adapted. The impacts on curve fitting of flood series showed an overall change of upper tail from "gentle" to "steep," and the design flood magnitude became larger. Therefore, a nonstationary frequency analysis taking account of change point in the data series is highly recommended for future studies.
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| 9. |
- Du, Chenqiu, et al.
(author)
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Home dampness/mold(D/M) improvement in children's residences over the past decade in China-a comparison of repeated surveys in 2010 and 2019
- 2021
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In: Building and Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0360-1323 .- 1873-684X. ; 205
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is mounting evidence that exposure to household dampness/mold (D/M) is the cause of respiratory, allergic diseases for children. While few research focuses on the effects caused by building environment changes, from a longitudinal investigation perspective, especially for China experiencing a rapid development in recent years. This study aimed to explore the changes of D/M in Chinese homes over the past 10 years and identify the impacts of climate, building energy efficiency and residents' behaviors. The cross-sectional surveys were repeatedly conducted in children' residences in 2010 (Period I) and 2019 (Period II), among Taiyuan, Urumqi in northern China, and Nanjing, Shanghai, Wuhan, Changsha, Chongqing in southern China. Finally, 23465 children in Period I and 34720 children in Period II were involved, with no changes of residences since birth. The results showed that the proportions for reported D/M indicators were significantly reduced in Period II: e.g., 93.8% and 84.1% residents respectively answered no visible mold spots and damp stains in current residences, compared to only 78.3% and 62.2% in Period I. Southern homes accounted for high proportions for D/M indicator occurrences; warm-humid climate, annual higher precipitation and lower sunshine hours, etc., exacerbated the indoor D/M exposure risks. While residents' behaviors like ventilation, airing quilt/beddings, regular cleaning ameliorated the reported D/M significantly. The findings, from a temporal and spacious dimension perspective, advance our understanding of indoor D/M changes, precisely improvement in children' homes over the past 10 years, benefiting to promote indoor air quality standards in China.
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| 10. |
- Fan, Ping, et al.
(author)
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The influence of environmental factors on clinical pathological changes of patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy from different areas of China
- 2018
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In: Renal failure. - 0886-022X. ; 40:1, s. 597-602
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- RESULTS: It was shown that the frequency of the patients with no mucosal infection in the urinary tract was higher in the Guangzhou group, while the frequencies of upper respiratory tract and biliary infections were lower when compared with those in the Xi'an group. Serum uric acid, alexin C3, creatinine and serum cholesterol concentrations were increased in the Guangzhou group, while triglyceride, glomerular filtration rate, and urine red blood cell count level decreased. IgA + IgM + C3 and IgA + IgG + IgM + C3 were found in most patients of the Xi'an group, whereas IgA + C3, IgA + IgM + C3 and IgA were more frequent in the Guangzhou group.CONCLUSION: It was found that differential environment, life habits and patterns in the two investigated areas obviously may influence the variable characteristics of IgAN patients.METHODS: Patients who were identified to have primary IgAN by renal biopsy diagnosis were recruited both from Shaanxi province hospital of traditional Chinese medicine and Guangdong province hospital of traditional Chinese medicine. Besides renal histopathology data, a number of clinical and laboratory data were collected.OBJECTIVES: The effects of regional characteristics of IgAN patients in different areas of China were investigated.
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| 11. |
- Liu, Yuhuai, et al.
(author)
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Effects of root exudate stoichiometry on CO2 emission from paddy soil
- 2020
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In: European Journal of Soil Biology. - : Elsevier BV. - 1164-5563 .- 1778-3615. ; 101
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Root exudates are a labile source of carbon (C) for microorganisms that can lead to increased CO2 emission. Root exudates can vary in C:N stoichiometric ratio and their impact on microbially driven soil organic matter (SOM) turnover in paddy soils still remains unclear. The objective was to explore the underlying mechanisms involved in SOM decomposition due to root exudate (artificial) addition with three different C:N ratios (10, 20, and 40) during 45 days incubation. Different root exudates C:N ratios were obtained by adding mineral N and exudate components (glucose, oxalic acid, and glutamate) to paddy soil. N-only addition decreased dissolved organic C to limit CO2 emissions, which is an indicative of C sequestration. Conversely, simulated C:N stoichiometric ratios of root exudates significantly increased both microbial activity and metabolism without altering the microbial biomass C:N ratio. However, soil available dissolved organic C to NH4+ ratio decreased by exudates addition. The stoichiometric ratio of key C and N compound degrading enzymes activities increased only with C:N = 10 and remained unchanged with exudates C:N = 20 and 40. The qCO2 values increased with decreasing N-containing compounds in root exudates (i.e. highest CO2 emission was observed under C:N = 40 exudates addition). The results suggest that increasing exudates C:N ratio intensify CO2 emission due to high microbial N demand. Overall result show that root exudates C:N ratio and soil available N co-regulate on CO2 emission, which was controlled by microbial and potential extracellular enzyme activities.
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| 12. |
- Liu, Zhiyong, et al.
(author)
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Compensating Effects Between Climate and Underlying Characteristics on Watershed Water Loss
- 2023
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 128:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Identifying climate impacts on watershed water loss (evapotranspiration) generally involves the interactions with land surface change (e.g., vegetation dynamics and anthropogenic disturbances). Here, we seek to understand the compensating effects of climate and underlying characteristics on watershed evapotranspiration. In this regard, an analytical solution was derived by using a simple water-energy partitioning framework for separating the individual contributions of climate and underlying characteristics to changes in watershed actual evapotranspiration between 1930-1970 and 1971-2008 over global 87 basins. We found that for the basins with larger increases in the total evapotranspiration, a positive underlying characteristic-related contribution is dominant, rather than the climate-related contribution. Tradeoffs (i.e., the compensating effects) between the contributions of climate and underlying characteristics to evaporative water loss were also identified in a few basins where there were relatively large changes in the underlying characteristic-related evapotranspiration but only a slight change in the total evapotranspiration. This suggests that the climate contribution in evapotranspiration may offset the effect of underlying characteristic-related changes over these basins, associated with stronger hydrological resilience under the double impacts of both climate and underlying factors. The results also indicate that the underlying characteristics exert greater contributions to the changes in the total evapotranspiration rather than the climate variation, and the underlying characteristic-related evapotranspiration variations are closely related to the changes in reservoirs and land-use types of the basins. The presented findings may provide an insightful understanding of interactions among climate, water, and underlying characteristics over global basins.
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| 13. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 14. |
- Mueller, Stefanie H., et al.
(author)
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Aggregation tests identify new gene associations with breast cancer in populations with diverse ancestry
- 2023
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In: Genome Medicine. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1756-994X. ; 15
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Low-frequency variants play an important role in breast cancer (BC) susceptibility. Gene-based methods can increase power by combining multiple variants in the same gene and help identify target genes.Methods: We evaluated the potential of gene-based aggregation in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium cohorts including 83,471 cases and 59,199 controls. Low-frequency variants were aggregated for individual genes' coding and regulatory regions. Association results in European ancestry samples were compared to single-marker association results in the same cohort. Gene-based associations were also combined in meta-analysis across individuals with European, Asian, African, and Latin American and Hispanic ancestry.Results: In European ancestry samples, 14 genes were significantly associated (q < 0.05) with BC. Of those, two genes, FMNL3 (P = 6.11 x 10(-6)) and AC058822.1 (P = 1.47 x 10(-4)), represent new associations. High FMNL3 expression has previously been linked to poor prognosis in several other cancers. Meta-analysis of samples with diverse ancestry discovered further associations including established candidate genes ESR1 and CBLB. Furthermore, literature review and database query found further support for a biologically plausible link with cancer for genes CBLB, FMNL3, FGFR2, LSP1, MAP3K1, and SRGAP2C.Conclusions: Using extended gene-based aggregation tests including coding and regulatory variation, we report identification of plausible target genes for previously identified single-marker associations with BC as well as the discovery of novel genes implicated in BC development. Including multi ancestral cohorts in this study enabled the identification of otherwise missed disease associations as ESR1 (P = 1.31 x 10(-5)), demonstrating the importance of diversifying study cohorts.
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| 15. |
- Murray, Christopher J. L., et al.
(author)
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Population and fertility by age and sex for 195 countries and territories, 1950–2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1995-2051
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Population estimates underpin demographic and epidemiological research and are used to track progress on numerous international indicators of health and development. To date, internationally available estimates of population and fertility, although useful, have not been produced with transparent and replicable methods and do not use standardised estimates of mortality. We present single-calendar year and single-year of age estimates of fertility and population by sex with standardised and replicable methods. Methods: We estimated population in 195 locations by single year of age and single calendar year from 1950 to 2017 with standardised and replicable methods. We based the estimates on the demographic balancing equation, with inputs of fertility, mortality, population, and migration data. Fertility data came from 7817 location-years of vital registration data, 429 surveys reporting complete birth histories, and 977 surveys and censuses reporting summary birth histories. We estimated age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs; the annual number of livebirths to women of a specified age group per 1000 women in that age group) by use of spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression and used the ASFRs to estimate total fertility rates (TFRs; the average number of children a woman would bear if she survived through the end of the reproductive age span [age 10–54 years] and experienced at each age a particular set of ASFRs observed in the year of interest). Because of sparse data, fertility at ages 10–14 years and 50–54 years was estimated from data on fertility in women aged 15–19 years and 45–49 years, through use of linear regression. Age-specific mortality data came from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 estimates. Data on population came from 1257 censuses and 761 population registry location-years and were adjusted for underenumeration and age misreporting with standard demographic methods. Migration was estimated with the GBD Bayesian demographic balancing model, after incorporating information about refugee migration into the model prior. Final population estimates used the cohort-component method of population projection, with inputs of fertility, mortality, and migration data. Population uncertainty was estimated by use of out-of-sample predictive validity testing. With these data, we estimated the trends in population by age and sex and in fertility by age between 1950 and 2017 in 195 countries and territories. Findings: From 1950 to 2017, TFRs decreased by 49·4% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 46·4–52·0). The TFR decreased from 4·7 livebirths (4·5–4·9) to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·5), and the ASFR of mothers aged 10–19 years decreased from 37 livebirths (34–40) to 22 livebirths (19–24) per 1000 women. Despite reductions in the TFR, the global population has been increasing by an average of 83·8 million people per year since 1985. The global population increased by 197·2% (193·3–200·8) since 1950, from 2·6 billion (2·5–2·6) to 7·6 billion (7·4–7·9) people in 2017; much of this increase was in the proportion of the global population in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The global annual rate of population growth increased between 1950 and 1964, when it peaked at 2·0%; this rate then remained nearly constant until 1970 and then decreased to 1·1% in 2017. Population growth rates in the southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania GBD super-region decreased from 2·5% in 1963 to 0·7% in 2017, whereas in sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates were almost at the highest reported levels ever in 2017, when they were at 2·7%. The global average age increased from 26·6 years in 1950 to 32·1 years in 2017, and the proportion of the population that is of working age (age 15–64 years) increased from 59·9% to 65·3%. At the national level, the TFR decreased in all countries and territories between 1950 and 2017; in 2017, TFRs ranged from a low of 1·0 livebirths (95% UI 0·9–1·2) in Cyprus to a high of 7·1 livebirths (6·8–7·4) in Niger. The TFR under age 25 years (TFU25; number of livebirths expected by age 25 years for a hypothetical woman who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) in 2017 ranged from 0·08 livebirths (0·07–0·09) in South Korea to 2·4 livebirths (2·2–2·6) in Niger, and the TFR over age 30 years (TFO30; number of livebirths expected for a hypothetical woman ageing from 30 to 54 years who survived the age group and was exposed to current ASFRs) ranged from a low of 0·3 livebirths (0·3–0·4) in Puerto Rico to a high of 3·1 livebirths (3·0–3·2) in Niger. TFO30 was higher than TFU25 in 145 countries and territories in 2017. 33 countries had a negative population growth rate from 2010 to 2017, most of which were located in central, eastern, and western Europe, whereas population growth rates of more than 2·0% were seen in 33 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2017, less than 65% of the national population was of working age in 12 of 34 high-income countries, and less than 50% of the national population was of working age in Mali, Chad, and Niger. Interpretation: Population trends create demographic dividends and headwinds (ie, economic benefits and detriments) that affect national economies and determine national planning needs. Although TFRs are decreasing, the global population continues to grow as mortality declines, with diverse patterns at the national level and across age groups. To our knowledge, this is the first study to provide transparent and replicable estimates of population and fertility, which can be used to inform decision making and to monitor progress. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 16. |
- Shi, Haonan, et al.
(author)
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Prevalence, risk factors, impact and management of pneumonia among preschool children in Chinese seven cities : a cross-sectional study with interrupted time series analysis
- 2023
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In: BMC Medicine. - : BioMed Central (BMC). - 1741-7015. ; 21
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Pneumonia is a common disease worldwide in preschool children. Despite its large population size, China has had no comprehensive study of the national prevalence, risk factors, and management of pneumonia among preschool children. We therefore investigated the prevalence of pneumonia among preschool children in Chinese seven representative cities, and explore the possible risk factors of pneumonia on children, with a view to calling the world's attention to childhood pneumonia to reduce the prevalence of childhood pneumonia.Methods: Two group samples of 63,663 and 52,812 preschool children were recruited from 2011 and 2019 surveys, respectively. Which were derived from the cross-sectional China, Children, Homes, Health (CCHH) study using a multi-stage stratified sampling method. This survey was conducted in kindergartens in seven representative cities. Exclusion criteria were younger than 2 years old or older than 8 years old, non-permanent population, basic information such as gender, date of birth and breast feeding is incomplete. Pneumonia was determined on the basis of parents reported history of clearly diagnosed by the physician. All participants were assessed with a standard questionnaire. Risk factors for pneumonia, and association between pneumonia and other respiratory diseases were examined by multivariable-adjusted analyses done in all participants for whom data on the variables of interest were available. Disease management was evaluated by the parents' reported history of physician diagnosis, longitudinal comparison of risk factors in 2011 and 2019.Results: In 2011 and 2019, 31,277 (16,152 boys and 15,125 girls) and 32,016 (16,621 boys and 15,395 girls) preschool children aged at 2-8 of permanent population completed the questionnaire, respectively, and were thus included in the final analysis. The findings showed that the age-adjusted prevalence of pneumonia in children was 32.7% in 2011 and 26.4% in 2019. In 2011, girls (odds ratio [OR] 0.91, 95%CI [confidence interval]0.87-0.96; p = 0.0002), rural (0.85, 0.73-0.99; p = 0.0387), duration of breastfeeding & GE; 6 months(0.83, 0.79-0.88; p < 0.0001), birth weight (g) & GE; 4000 (0.88, 0.80-0.97; p = 0.0125), frequency of putting bedding to sunshine (Often) (0.82, 0.71-0.94; p = 0.0049), cooking fuel type (electricity) (0.87, 0.80-0.94; p = 0.0005), indoor use air-conditioning (0.85, 0.80-0.90; p < 0.0001) were associated with a reduced risk of childhood pneumonia. Age (4-6) (1.11, 1.03-1.20; p = 0.0052), parental smoking (one) (1.12, 1.07-1.18; p < 0.0001), used antibiotics (2.71, 2.52-2.90; p < 0.0001), history of parental allergy (one and two) (1.21, 1.12-1.32; p < 0.0001 and 1.33, 1.04-1.69; p = 0.0203), indoor dampness (1.24, 1.15-1.33; p < 0.0001), home interior decoration (1.11, 1.04-1.19; p = 0.0013), Wall painting materials (Paint) (1.16, 1.04-1.29; p = 0.0084), flooring materials (Laminate / Composite wood) (1.08, 1.02-1.16; p = 0.0126), indoor heating mode(Central heating)(1.18, 1.07-1.30, p = 0.0090), asthma (2.38, 2.17-2.61; p < 0.0001), allergic rhinitis (1.36, 1.25-1.47; p < 0.0001), wheezing (1.64, 1.55-1.74; p < 0.0001) were associated with an elevated risk of childhood pneumonia; pneumonia was associated with an elevated risk of childhood asthma (2.53, 2.31-2.78; p < 0.0001), allergic rhinitis (1.41, 1.29-1.53; p < 0.0001) and wheezing (1.64, 1.55-1.74; p < 0.0001). In 2019, girls (0.92, 0. 87-0.97; p = 0.0019), duration of breastfeeding & GE; 6 months (0.92, 0.87-0.97; p = 0.0031), used antibiotics (0.22, 0.21-0.24; p < 0.0001), cooking fuel type (Other) (0.40, 0.23-0.63; p = 0.0003), indoor use air-conditioning (0.89, 0.83-0.95; p = 0.0009) were associated with a reduced risk of childhood pneumonia. Urbanisation (Suburb) (1.10, 1.02-1.18; p = 0.0093), premature birth (1.29, 1.08-1.55; p = 0.0051), birth weight (g) < 2500 (1.17, 1.02-1.35; p = 0.0284), parental smoking (1.30, 1.23-1.38; p < 0.0001), history of parental asthma (One) (1.23, 1.03-1.46; p = 0.0202), history of parental allergy (one and two) (1.20, 1.13-1.27; p < 0.0001 and 1.22, 1.08-1.37; p = 0.0014), cooking fuel type (Coal) (1.58, 1.02-2.52; p = 0.0356), indoor dampness (1.16, 1.08-1.24; p < 0.0001), asthma (1.88, 1.64-2.15; p < 0.0001), allergic rhinitis (1.57, 1.45-1.69; p < 0.0001), wheezing (2.43, 2.20-2.68; p < 0.0001) were associated with an elevated risk of childhood pneumonia; pneumonia was associated with an elevated risk of childhood asthma (1.96, 1.72-2.25; p < 0.0001), allergic rhinitis (1.60, 1.48-1.73; p < 0.0001) and wheezing (2.49, 2.25-2.75; p < 0.0001).Conclusions: Pneumonia is prevalent among preschool children in China, and it affects other childhood respiratory diseases. Although the prevalence of pneumonia in Chinese children shows a decreasing trend in 2019 compared to 2011, a well-established management system is still needed to further reduce the prevalence of pneumonia and reduce the burden of disease in children.
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| 17. |
- Wu, Chuansha, et al.
(author)
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Modification of Food Allergy on the Associations between Early Life Exposure to Size-Specific Particulate Matter and Childhood Allergic Rhinitis
- 2024
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In: Environmental Science and Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 0013-936X .- 1520-5851. ; 58:4, s. 1813-1822
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Previous studies have reported the association between particulate matter (PM) and childhood allergic rhinitis (AR). However, it is unclear whether food allergy (FA) modifies the PM-AR association. We aimed at evaluating the effect of the modification of FA on PM-AR association in preschool children. We adopted a cross-sectional study and conducted a questionnaire survey among preschool children aged 3-6 years in 7 cities in China from June 2019 to June 2020 to collect information on AR and FA. We used a combination of multilevel logistic regression and restricted cubic spline functions to quantitatively assess whether FA modifies the associations between size-specific PM exposure (1 x 1 km) and the risk of AR. The adjusted odds ratios (ORs) for AR among the children with FA as per a 10 mu g/m(3) increase in early life PM1, PM2.5, and PM10 were significantly higher than the corresponding ORs among the children without FA [e.g., OR: 1.58, 95% CI: (1.32, 1.90) vs 1.29, 95% CI: (1.18, 1.41), per 10 mu g/m(3) increase in PM1]. The interactions between FA and size-specific PM exposure and their effects on AR were statistically significant (all p-int < 0.001). FA, as an important part of the allergic disease progression, may modify the PM-AR association in preschool children.
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| 18. |
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| 19. |
- Xu, Guobao, et al.
(author)
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Tree ring O-18's indication of a shift to a wetter climate since the 1880s in the western Tianshan Mountains of northwestern China
- 2015
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In: Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. - 2169-897X .- 2169-8996. ; 120:13, s. 6409-6425
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Central Asian droughts have drastically and significantly affected agriculture and water resource management in these arid and semiarid areas. Based on tree ring O-18 from native, dominant Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana Fisch. et Mey.), we developed a 300year (1710-2010) standard precipitation-evaporation index (SPEI) reconstruction from January to August for China's western Tianshan Mountains. The regression model explained 37.6% of the variation in the SPEI reconstruction during the calibration period from 1950 to 2010. Comparison with previous drought reconstructions confirmed the robustness of our reconstruction. The 20th century has been a relatively wet period during the past 300years. The SPEI showed quasi 2, 5, and 10year cycles. Several pluvials and droughts with covariability over large areas were revealed clearly in the reconstruction. The two longest pluvials (lasting for 12years), separated by 50years, appeared in the 1900s and the 1960s. The most severe drought occurred from 1739 to 1761 and from 1886 to 1911 was the wettest period since 1710. Compared to previous investigations of hydroclimatic changes in the western Tianshan Mountains, our reconstruction revealed more low-frequency variability and indicated that climate in the western Tianshan Mountains shifted from dry to wet in 1886. This regime shift was generally consistent with other moisture reconstructions for the northeastern Tibetan Plateau and northern Pakistan and may have resulted from a strengthened westerly circulation. The opposite hydrological trends in the western Tianshan Mountains and southeastern Tibetan Plateau reveal a substantial influence of strengthened westerlies and weakening of the Indian summer monsoon.
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| 20. |
- Yu, Wei, et al.
(author)
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Increased risk of respiratory and allergic diseases in preschoolers from building envelope dampness exposure : Repeated cross-sectional surveys in multicity China
- 2023
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In: Building and Environment. - : Elsevier. - 0360-1323 .- 1873-684X. ; 241
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Building envelope dampness exposure is correlated with children's respiratory and allergic diseases. However, little research has compared the variation in the health impact of dampness exposure across multiple cities from a longitudinal perspective. A cross-sectional survey and a repeated one were conducted in children's residences in six cities: Chongqing, Shanghai, Nanjing, Wuhan, Changsha and Taiyuan, China, in 2010 (Phase I) and 2019 (Phase II). We selected 17,810 preschoolers during Phase I and 26,001 preschoolers during Phase II aged 3-6 years without changing residence since birth in the study. The proportion of residences with building envelope dampness exposure and the prevalence of respiratory and allergic diseases, except allergic rhinitis, in preschoolers significantly declined from Phase I to Phase II. Dampness exposure increased the risk for most childhood respiratory diseases in Phase II, with a 34% greater risk of lifetime-ever asthma in early residences and a 36% greater risk of current eczema in current residences. Most diseases showed a significantly positive exposureresponse relationship to the cumulative period of building envelope dampness exposure (p < 0.05). The risk of developing current eczema was approximately 1.35 and 1.73 times higher in children exposed to both early and current dampness in Phase I and Phase II, respectively, than in children who had never been exposed. These findings provide new insights into the respiratory and allergic diseases in Chinese preschoolers because of building envelope dampness exposure over the last decade. The increased risk in Phase II raises concerns about the household's dampness environment.
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| 21. |
- Zhang, Chao, et al.
(author)
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All-trans retinoic acid prevents epidural fibrosis through NF-kappa B signaling pathway in post-laminectomy rats
- 2014
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In: Neuropharmacology. - : Elsevier BV. - 0028-3908 .- 1873-7064. ; 79C, s. 275-281
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Laminectomy is a widely accepted treatment for lumbar disorders, and epidural fibrosis (EF) is a common complication. EF is thought to cause post-operative pain recurrence after laminectomy or discectomy. All-trans retinoic acid (ATRA) has shown anti-fibrotic, anti-inflammatory, and anti-proliferative functions. The object of this study was to investigate the effects of ATRA on the prevention of EF in post-laminectomy rats. In vitro, the anti-fibrotic effect of ATRA was demonstrated with cultured fibroblasts count, which comprised of those that were cultured with/without ATRA. In vivo, rats underwent laminectomy at the L1-L2 levels. We first demonstrated the beneficial effects using 0.05% ATRA compared to vehicle (control group). We found that a higher concentration of ATRA (0.1%) achieved dose-dependent results. Hydroxyproline content, Rydell score, vimentin-positive cell density, fibroblast density, inflammatory cell density and inflammatory factor expression levels all suggested better outcomes in the 0.1% ATRA rats compared to the other three groups. Presumably, these effects involved ATRA's ability to suppress transforming growth factor (TGF-β1) and interleukin (IL)-6 which was confirmed with reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). Finally we demonstrated that ATRA down-regulated nuclear factor (NF)-κB by immunohistochemistry and western blotting for p65 and inhibition of κB (IκBα), respectively. Our findings indicate that topical application of ATRA can inhibit fibroblast proliferation, decrease TGF-β1 and IL-6 expression level, and prevent epidural scar adhesion in rats. The highest concentration employed in this study (0.1%) was the most effective. ATRA suppressed EF through down-regulating NF-κB signaling, whose specific mechanism is suppression of IκB phosphorylation and proteolytic degradation.
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| 22. |
- Zhang, Yinping, et al.
(author)
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Ten cities cross-sectional questionnaire survey of children asthma and other allergies in China
- 2013
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In: Chinese Science Bulletin. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1001-6538 .- 1861-9541. ; 58:34, s. 4182-4189
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Asthma, rhinitis and eczema (allergic or non-allergic) have increased throughout the world during the last decades, especially among children. Changes in the indoor environment are suspected to be important causes. China has experienced a dramatic change in indoor environmental exposures during the past two decades. However, such changes and their associations with children's asthma and other health aspects have not been thoroughly studied. China, Children, Homes, Health (CCHH), Phase I, was a cross-sectional questionnaire survey of 48219 children 1-8 years old in 10 Chinese cities during 2010-2012. The questionnaire includes the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC) core health questions and additional questions regarding housing, life habits and outdoor environment. In health analyses, children aged 3-6 years old were included. The prevalences of doctor diagnosed asthma varied from 1.7% to 9.8% (mean 6.8%), a large increase from 0.91% in 1999 and 1.50% in 2000. The prevalence of wheeze, rhinitis and atopic eczema (last 12 months) varied from 13.9% to 23.7%, 24.0% to 50.8% and 4.8% to 15.8%, respectively. Taiyuan had the lowest prevalences of all illnesses and Shanghai the highest, except for wheezewhere the highest value was for Urumqi. We found (1) no obvious association between disease prevalences and ambient PM10 concentrations and (2) higher prevalences of disease in humid climates with hot summers and cold winters, but with no centrally heated buildings. Associations between the diseases and economic status as indexed by Gross Domestic Product (GDP) requires further study.
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| 23. |
- Zody, Michael, 1968-, et al.
(author)
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DNA sequence of human chromosome 17 and analysis of rearrangement in the human lineage
- 2006
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 440:7087, s. 1045-1049
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Chromosome 17 is unusual among the human chromosomes in many respects. It is the largest human autosome with orthology to only a single mouse chromosome, mapping entirely to the distal half of mouse chromosome 11. Chromosome 17 is rich in protein-coding genes, having the second highest gene density in the genome. It is also enriched in segmental duplications, ranking third in density among the autosomes. Here we report a finished sequence for human chromosome 17, as well as a structural comparison with the finished sequence for mouse chromosome 11, the first finished mouse chromosome. Comparison of the orthologous regions reveals striking differences. In contrast to the typical pattern seen in mammalian evolution, the human sequence has undergone extensive intrachromosomal rearrangement, whereas the mouse sequence has been remarkably stable. Moreover, although the human sequence has a high density of segmental duplication, the mouse sequence has a very low density. Notably, these segmental duplications correspond closely to the sites of structural rearrangement, demonstrating a link between duplication and rearrangement. Examination of the main classes of duplicated segments provides insight into the dynamics underlying expansion of chromosome-specific, low-copy repeats in the human genome.
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| 24. |
- Zuo, Daxing, et al.
(author)
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Spatial patterns of short-term extreme precipitation and their causes
- 2024
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In: Hydrological Processes. ; 38:7
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Abstract The spatial distribution of extreme precipitation significantly affects flow-producing processes and flooding. Previous studies on heavy rainfall have mainly emphasized the temporal distribution characteristics, with little emphasis on rainfall spatial patterns. We objectively classified 3-h scale extreme precipitation spatial patterns (EPSPs) in Guangdong Province, China. We calculated the importance of the influencing factors on EPSPs, analysed weather backgrounds corresponding to various EPSPs, and explained the causes of extreme precipitation. We found that the incidence of most EPSPs increased significantly over this 40-year period, and this increase has been particularly pronounced since the beginning of the 21st century. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) was found to be the main factor influencing the extreme precipitation events (EPEs) in western Guangdong, and the weakening of the PDO contributed to the occurrence of EPEs in these areas. Urbanization was the main factor contributing to the increase in EPEs in the southern and coastal areas of Guangdong. The EPSPs in central Guangdong were caused by a southwest jet stream and topographic uplift. Extreme precipitation in southern and coastal Guangdong was mainly triggered by the convergent shear of southwesterly winds. The EPSPs over western Guangdong were caused by the low vortex in western Guangdong and the influx of large amounts of water vapour from the southern ocean. This study has provided new ideas for the study of the formation process and mechanism of localized heavy precipitation as well as an important reference for the simulation of runoff in coastal areas.
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