| 1. |
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| 2. |
- Abrahamsson, Marcus, et al.
(author)
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A study of the performance of risk and vulnerability assessments by Swedish Public Agencies
- 2012
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In: Proceedings of the 4th International Disaster and Risk Conference: Integrative Risk Management in a Changing World - Pathways to a Resilient Society, IDRC Davos 2012. ; , s. 15-18
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Risk and vulnerability assessments (RVA) are vital components of the work conducted by public agencies at different levels, as part of the processes for governing and managing risks in the society. In Sweden, public agencies at all levels are required by legislation to perform risk and vulnerability assessments within their respective area of responsibility. The present paper presents a study of how Swedish municipalities, county administrative boards and national authorities work with RVAs, with a special focus on three aspects of such assessments that are highlighted in the legislation: vital societal functions, critical dependencies, and capability assessment. The main data collection technique was semi-structured interviews and a total of 25 actors were included and interviewed. The goal was to achieve a good representation of the different actors that perform RVAs. Thus 5 national authorities, 5 county administrative boards, and 15 municipalities were chosen in order to obtain a representative functional distribution (in terms of national authorities responsible for different sectors), geographic distribution as well as size distribution. The study shows that there is rather large variety of approaches, perspectives and views adopted by different actors, all with different advantages and drawbacks. It is argued that the findings of the study can be used to improve the RVA-practices of public authorities.
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| 3. |
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| 4. |
- Abrahamsson, Marcus, et al.
(author)
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Towards a systems-oriented framework for analysing and evaluating emergency response
- 2010
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In: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. - : Wiley. - 1468-5973 .- 0966-0879. ; 18:1, s. 14-25
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Information can be provided by studying and evaluating past emergencies and the response in connection to them. This information would then be useful in efforts directed at preventing, mitigating and/or preparing for future emergencies. However, the analysis and evaluation of emergency response operations is not an easy task, especially when the operation involves several cooperating actors (e.g. the fire and rescue services, the police, the emergency medical services, etc.). Here, we identify and discuss four aspects of this challenge: (1) issues related to the values governing the evaluation, (2) issues related to the complexity of the systems involved, (3) issues related to the validity of the information on which the analysis and evaluation is based and (4) issues related to the limiting conditions under which the emergency response system operated. An outline of a framework for such an analysis and evaluation, influenced by systems theory, accident investigation theories and programme evaluation theories dealing with the above aspects, is introduced, discussed and exemplified using empirical results from a case study.We conclude that the proposed framework may provide a better understanding of how an emergency response system functioned during a specific operation, and help to identify the potential events and/or circumstances that could significantly affect the performance of the emergency response system, either negatively or positively. The insights gained from using the framework may allow the actors involved in the response operation to gain a better understanding of how the emergency response system functioned as a whole, as well as how the actors performed as individual components of the system. Furthermore, the information can also be useful for actors preparing for future emergencies
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| 5. |
- Abrahamsson, Marcus, et al.
(author)
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Utveckling av kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser
- 2012
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Denna rapport utgör redovisning av ett arbete som LUCRAM (Lunds universitets centrum för riskanalys och riskhantering) har genomfört på uppdrag av Myndigheten för samhällsskydd och beredskap (MSB). Uppdraget heter ”Studie om föreskrifters inverkan på kommuners risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser avseende jämförbarhet och enhetlighet”. Inom detta uppdrag har LUCRAM genomfört en dokumentstudie av kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser i Skåne och Örebro län, samt en enkätstudie riktad till kommunerna i ovanstående län. Syftet med studien har varit att undersöka om, och i så fall på vilket sätt, enhetligheten och jämförbarheten mellan olika kommunala risk- och sårbarhetsanalyser har ändrats i samband med införandet av MSB:s föreskrifter MSBFS 2010:6.
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| 6. |
- Cedergren, Alexander, et al.
(author)
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Tracking the implementation of a risk management process in a public sector organisation – A longitudinal study
- 2022
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In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-4209. ; 81
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents the results from a longitudinal study of the process of developing and implementing a method for risk assessment in a public sector organisation over a period of 3.5 years. The study explores how people involved in this process viewed factors influencing the implementation and what effects the risk management process gave rise to. While a large share of previous research on this topic has been confined to analysing the final product in terms of the documented risk assessment report, this study explores factors affecting the process leading to such outcome. Data collection was conducted through a questionnaire used on five occasions during the study period. The results from this questionnaire were complemented with an interview study to gain deeper insights and understanding of factors shaping the risk management process. The findings show a maturing process over time where the most clearly visible impact from the risk management process includes an increased risk awareness among persons involved. However, the results also indicate that the outcomes from the risk management process were only to a limited extent spread to the rest of the organisation and persons at the management level showed a declining commitment to the risk management process over the 3.5-year period. Methodologically, the paper underlines the value of adopting a longitudinal research design in the area of risk management to allow for an exploration of trends and patterns arising over time, which contributes to a deeper and more contextualised understanding of a risk management process compared to studies that only rely on capturing snapshots of an organisation's current work practices.
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| 7. |
- Hassel, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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An Operational Definition of Emergency Response Capabilities
- 2007
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In: Proceedings of Disaster Recovery and Relief: Current & Future Approaches (TIEMS 2007).
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Well developed emergency response capabilities are crucial in order to keep the risk in a community at low levels. Analysing these capabilities before an emergency occurs is important since it can identify weaknesses and possibilities for improvements. To start off from an operational definition is a possible point of departure in such an analysis. In this paper, therefore, we develop an operational definition of emergency response capabilities, which builds on systems theory and an operational definition of risk. The definition includes three essential elements; the task to which the capability is related, measures of how well that task can be performed and a description of the context affecting the performance of that particular task. The definition makes clear that the context might have large effects on how well a task can be performed and that there are uncertainties both regarding the context and how well a task can be performed given a context. Furthermore, we argue that it should be possible to make judgements about any statements that are made in the analysis regarding their validity and therefore the tasks and performance measures must be defined accordingly. The conclusion is that the operational definition provides an analytic structure which can help actors to gain knowledge about their emergency response capabilities and limits thereof.
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| 8. |
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| 9. |
- Hassel, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Evaluating the Seriousness of Disasters: An Empirical Study of Preferences
- 2009
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In: International Journal of Emergency Management. - 1471-4825. ; 6:1, s. 33-54
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In making societal decisions concerning hazards with potentially disastrous consequences it is important to have soundly based knowledge of how people evaluate the seriousness of disasters. In the present study a group of students evaluated the seriousness of disasters described in terms of four basic attributes (and their ranges): number of fatalities (0-1000), number of serious injuries (0-4000), economic loss (0-40 billion SEK), and cause of the disaster (natural, accidental, terrorism). Attribute weights were elicited by two separate methods, which taken together provides insight into the stability and the uncertainty of the weights elicited. Most participants regarded attributes related to physical harm, especially the number of fatalities, a finding that, however, must be seen in relation to the ranges of the attributes. In addition, the cause of a disaster also affected many of the participants’ judgments of its seriousness. The findings of this paper are of value to societal decision making, particularly in the case of projects of small to medium size in which specific elicitations of stakeholders’ values are rarely made.
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| 10. |
- Hassel, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Identifying critical components in technical infrastructure networks
- 2008
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In: Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability. - 1748-006X. ; 222:2, s. 235-243
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A new method for identifying and ranking critical components and sets of components in technical infrastructures is presented. The criticality of a component or a set of components is defined as the vulnerability of the system to failure in a specific component, or set of components. The identification of critical components is increasingly difficult when considering multiple simultaneous failures. This is especially difficult when dealing with failures of multiple components with synergistic consequences, i.e. consequences that cannot be calculated by adding the consequences of the individual failures. The proposed method addresses this problem. In exemplifying the method, an analysis of an electric power distribution system in a Swedish municipality is presented. It is concluded that the proposed method facilitates the identification of critical sets of components for large-scale technical infrastructures.
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| 11. |
- Hassel, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Identifying Critical Components of Electric Power Systems: A Network Analytic Approach
- 2007
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In: Risk, Reliability and Societal Safety, Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference 2007. ; , s. 889-896, s. 889-897
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We propose a method for identifying and ranking critical components and sets of components in technical infrastructures. Criticality is defined as the vulnerability of the system to failure in a specific component, or set of components. The identification of critical components is increasingly difficult when considering multiple simultaneous failures, especially component failures with synergistic effects. The proposed method addresses this problem. Furthermore, it is applied to an electric power distribution system in a Swedish municipality, using a simplified system model to calculate the consequences of component failures. We conclude that the proposed method facilitates the identification of critical failure sets and components for large-scale technical infrastructures. Using the proposed method it is possible to gain insights about the sys tem that otherwise might be overlooked.
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| 12. |
- Hassel, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Strategies for aggregating risk information in a societal safety context
- 2022
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In: Safety Science. - : Elsevier BV. - 0925-7535. ; 149, s. 11-11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Risk assessment is a useful tool to inform decision-making when it comes to ensuring the continuous operation of critical societal functions. It can be used on many levels within an organization or on multiple societal levels. One way to conduct risk assessments on a higher system level, such as on national level, is to aggregate risk information from lower-level assessments, e.g. from the regional level. However, the process of aggregating risk information can be highly complex and different strategies for such aggregation are suitable depending on the underlying risk information, the characteristics of the risks that this information represents, and the analysts’ intentions in the aggregation process. To use a particular aggregation strategy, different conditions must be met. In addition, throughout the aggregation process, a range of both generic and strategy-specific challenges require attention and careful consideration. Little previous research has focused on describing and systematizing different aggregation strategies, including description of the conditions and challenges for employing the strategies. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to further develop the conceptual basis of aggregation and to propose a set of common aggregation strategies that can be used within the area of societal safety. Furthermore, the paper also aims at describing the conditions and challenges of employing the strategies. In total, six strategies are proposed based on what risk information that needs to be aggregated (likelihoods, consequences or neither). In addition, the aggregation can be simple, in cases where a set of conditions are met, or more complex where overlaps and interactions between scenarios must be considered. The framework can be used to inform the process of aggregating risk information and has relevance across a range of different application areas.
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| 13. |
- Johansson, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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Analysing societal vulnerability to perturbations in electric distribution systems
- 2006
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In: Proceedings of the International Workshop on Complex Network and Infrastructure Protection.
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Reliable electrical power supply is a requirement for the modern society, therefore it is important to analyse the vulnerability of the electric power system. Network analysis has previously been used to analyse the vulnerability of electric transmission systems, however recent events in Sweden have shown that perturbations in distribution systems also can cause severe societal consequences. Thus, we argue that vulnerability analysis at the distribution level is equally important. Furthermore, previous work has focused on technical aspects of the system and in this paper we take a step towards incorporating societal aspects of vulnerability by suggesting new network analytic measures. We analyse the distribution systems in two Swedish municipalities using the proposed measures. We conclude that the proposed measures can increase the value of using network analysis when analysing societal vulnerability to perturbations in electric distribution systems and that such analysis also can be useful in emergency mitigation and preparedness planning.
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| 14. |
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| 15. |
- Johansson, Jonas, et al.
(author)
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Analysing the vulnerability of electric distribution systems: A step towards incorporating the societal consequences of disruptions
- 2007
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In: International Journal of Emergency Management. - 1471-4825. ; 4:1, s. 4-17
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Reliable electrical power supply is a prerequisite for the modern society, and if it fails it can cause severe consequences in terms of economic losses and even fatalities. It is thus important to analyse the vulnerability of the electric power system. Network analysis has previously been used to analyse the vulnerability of electric transmission systems, however recent events in Sweden have shown that perturbations in distribution systems also can cause severe societal consequences. Thus, we argue that vulnerability analysis at the distribution level is equally important. Furthermore, previous work has focused on technical aspects of the system and in this paper we take a step towards incorporating societal aspects of vulnerability by suggesting new network analytic measures. We analyse the distribution systems in two Swedish municipalities using the proposed measures. We conclude that the proposed measures can increase the value of using network analysis when analysing societal vulnerability to perturbations in electric distribution systems and that such analysis also can be useful in emergency mitigation and preparedness planning.
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| 16. |
- Johansson, Johas, et al.
(author)
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Tekniska Infrastruktures sårbarhet
- 2010
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In: FRIVA - risk, sårbarhet och förmåga. - 9789163376917 ; , s. 111-128
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Book chapter (other academic/artistic)
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| 17. |
- Lindbom, Hanna, et al.
(author)
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Capability assessments - How to make them useful for decision-making
- 2018
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In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-4209. ; 31, s. 251-259
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Capability assessments are becoming increasingly common as part of risk management activities worldwide. Despite this, there is no consensus concerning how these assessments are best conducted and presented. Recent studies suggest that two factors may influence the usefulness of capability assessments for decision-making: namely, whether the assessment includes descriptions of the resources available to an actor, and how well this actor can accomplish specific tasks. The present study was carried out to investigate the importance of including information on these factors in capability assessments. The experimental study conducted involved four fictive versions of capability assessments, differing in whether they included information about resources and tasks. Over 200 risk management professionals rated how useful they perceived each version to be as the basis for decision-making. The results show that it is important to include specific information on resources and tasks in capability assessments, and that the assessments including both were most useful, from a decision-making perspective.
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| 20. |
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| 21. |
- Månsson, Peter, et al.
(author)
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On common terms with shared risks - Studying the communication of risk between local, regional and national authorities in Sweden
- 2015
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In: International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction. - : Elsevier BV. - 2212-4209. ; 13:September 2015, s. 441-453
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Uncommon categorization, i.e. disparities in how similar terms and information is interpreted, coded and categorized, has been shown to impede inter-agency communication and collective sense-making. This study focuses on the presence and effects of uncommon categorizations in disaster risk management systems. We use the Swedish disaster risk management system as our case, and our empirical data consist of more than 120 reports from risk and vulnerability assessments, supplemented by 45 semi-qualitative interviews with officials who are involved in the realization of such assessments. Apart from investigating the causes and effects of uncommon categorization, we also map its extent and character, and its development between the years 2010 and 2014. The study shows that uncommon categorization is prevalent in the Swedish disaster risk management system. We argue that this has an extremely detrimental effect on the ability to integrate risk information, resulting in less useful bases for decisions and, thus, in a less efficient disaster risk management system. Nevertheless, we can also see signs of a reduction in uncommon categorization in recent years.
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| 22. |
- Pramanik, Roshni, et al.
(author)
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Motivating factors towards willingness to contribute in collaborative tasks: A crisis cooperation perspective
- 2015
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In: Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems - Proceedings of the 25th European Safety and Reliability Conference, ESREL 2015. - : CRC Press/Balkema. - 9781138028791 ; , s. 237-243
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Conference paper (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The interaction among various stakeholder organizations in modern crisis response is very similar to negotiation where each organization has its own goal in addition to a common goal. Decision makers in stakeholder organizations most often have to settle for win-win situations to attain higher joint benefit. In such cases willingness to contribute in joint tasks becomes a prerequisite. In our present study performed with 111 crisis management professionals from various stakeholder organizations in decision making roles, we study familiarity and expectation to future cooperation as constructs that can motivate decision makers to be more willing to contribute to joint tasks in crisis response.
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| 23. |
- Pramanik, Roshni, et al.
(author)
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Organizational Adaptation in Multi-Stakeholder Crisis Response : An Experimental Study
- 2015
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In: Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management. - : Wiley. - 0966-0879 .- 1468-5973. ; 23:4, s. 234-245
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Modern day crises demand organizations to collaborate and adapt to new roles, functions and structures. In such situations, lack of collaborative behaviour and openness between organizations can result in reduced adaptive ability. Therefore, it is important to facilitate collaboration between organizations. We have studied the extent to which crisis managers are prepared to work with personnel and resources from organizations other than their own when responding to crises. An experiment was designed with four different organizations in Sweden, which involved decision making concerning whether the participants systematically favoured their own organization over others. Findings indicate that increasing familiarity and expectation of future cooperation with other organizations increased the likelihood that decision makers would be prepared to work with other organizations in joint crisis management.
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| 24. |
- Tehler, Henrik, et al.
(author)
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Analys av sårbarhet med hjälp av nätverksmodeller
- 2007
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- This report presents the research concerned with vulnerability analysis of technical infrastructure networks conducted in the research framework programme called FRIVA. The report reviews how network analysis has been used to analyse the vulnerability of systems that are possible to model as networks, such as technical infrastructure systems. In addition, it proposes how these methods can be developed in order to better suit vulnerability analysis conducted with a societal perspective. In order to show the applicability of these methods, they are applied to both hypothetical and real-world systems.
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