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- Fullman, N., et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
- 2017
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In: Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 390:10100, s. 1423-1459
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2.5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97.5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56.7 (IQR 31.9-66.8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86.8, 95% uncertainty interval 84.6-88.9), Iceland (86.0, 84.1-87.6), and Sweden (85.6, 81.8-87.8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10.9, 9.6-11.9), the Central African Republic (11.0, 8.8-13.8), and Somalia (11.3, 9.5-13.1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. Interpretation GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. Copyright The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article published under the CC BY 4.0 license.
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- Abe, O, et al.
(author)
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Effects of chemotherapy and hormonal therapy for early breast cancer on recurrence and 15-year survival: an overview of the randomised trials
- 2005
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In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X. ; 365:9472, s. 1687-1717
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Quinquennial overviews (1985-2000) of the randomised trials in early breast cancer have assessed the 5-year and 10-year effects of various systemic adjuvant therapies on breast cancer recurrence and survival. Here, we report the 10-year and 15-year effects. Methods Collaborative meta-analyses were undertaken of 194 unconfounded randomised trials of adjuvant chemotherapy or hormonal therapy that began by 1995. Many trials involved CMF (cyclophosphamide, methotrexate, fluorouracil), anthracycline-based combinations such as FAC (fluorouracil, doxombicin, cyclophosphamide) or FEC (fluorouracil, epirubicin, cyclophosphamide), tamoxifen, or ovarian suppression: none involved taxanes, trastuzumab, raloxifene, or modem aromatase inhibitors. Findings Allocation to about 6 months of anthracycline-based polychemotherapy (eg, with FAC or FEC) reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by about 38% (SE 5) for women younger than 50 years of age when diagnosed and by about 20% (SE 4) for those of age 50-69 years when diagnosed, largely irrespective of the use of tamoxifen and of oestrogen receptor (ER) status, nodal status, or other tumour characteristics. Such regimens are significantly (2p=0 . 0001 for recurrence, 2p<0 . 00001 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than CMF chemotherapy. Few women of age 70 years or older entered these chemotherapy trials. For ER-positive disease only, allocation to about 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen reduces the annual breast cancer death rate by 31% (SE 3), largely irrespective of the use of chemotherapy and of age (<50, 50-69, &GE; 70 years), progesterone receptor status, or other tumour characteristics. 5 years is significantly (2p<0 . 00001 for recurrence, 2p=0 . 01 for breast cancer mortality) more effective than just 1-2 years of tamoxifen. For ER-positive tumours, the annual breast cancer mortality rates are similar during years 0-4 and 5-14, as are the proportional reductions in them by 5 years of tamoxifen, so the cumulative reduction in mortality is more than twice as big at 15 years as at 5 years after diagnosis. These results combine six meta-analyses: anthracycline-based versus no chemotherapy (8000 women); CMF-based versus no chemotherapy (14 000); anthracycline-based versus CMF-based chemotherapy (14 000); about 5 years of tamoxifen versus none (15 000); about 1-2 years of tamoxifen versus none (33 000); and about 5 years versus 1-2 years of tamoxifen (18 000). Finally, allocation to ovarian ablation or suppression (8000 women) also significantly reduces breast cancer mortality, but appears to do so only in the absence of other systemic treatments. For middle-aged women with ER-positive disease (the commonest type of breast cancer), the breast cancer mortality rate throughout the next 15 years would be approximately halved by 6 months of anthracycline-based chemotherapy (with a combination such as FAC or FEC) followed by 5 years of adjuvant tamoxifen. For, if mortality reductions of 38% (age <50 years) and 20% (age 50-69 years) from such chemotherapy were followed by a further reduction of 31% from tamoxifen in the risks that remain, the final mortality reductions would be 57% and 45%, respectively (and, the trial results could well have been somewhat stronger if there had been full compliance with the allocated treatments). Overall survival would be comparably improved, since these treatments have relatively small effects on mortality from the aggregate of all other causes. Interpretation Some of the widely practicable adjuvant drug treatments that were being tested in the 1980s, which substantially reduced 5-year recurrence rates (but had somewhat less effect on 5-year mortality rates), also substantially reduce 15-year mortality rates. Further improvements in long-term survival could well be available from newer drugs, or better use of older drugs.
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- Consoli, A, et al.
(author)
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CT perfusion and angiographic assessment of pial collateral reperfusion in acute ischemic stroke: the CAPRI study
- 2016
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In: Journal of neurointerventional surgery. - : BMJ. - 1759-8486 .- 1759-8478. ; 8:12, s. 1211-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between a novel angiographic score for collaterals and CT perfusion (CTP) parameters in patients undergoing endovascular treatment for acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods103 patients (mean age 66.7±12.7; 48.5% men) with AIS in the anterior circulation territory, imaged with non-contrast CT, CT angiography, and CTP, admitted within 8 h from symptom onset and treated with any endovascular approach, were retrospectively included in the study. Clinical, neuroradiological data, and all time intervals were collected. Careggi Collateral Score (CCS) was used for angiographic assessment of collaterals and the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (ASPECTS) for semiquantitative analysis of CTP maps. Two centralized core laboratories separately reviewed angiographic data, whereas CT findings were evaluated by an expert neuroradiologist. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed considering CCS both as an ordinal and a dichotomous variable.Results37/103 patients (35.9%) received intravenous tissue plasminogen activator. Median (IQR) ASPECTS was 9 (6–10) for admission CT, 9 (5–10) for cerebral blood volume (CBV) maps, 3 (2–3) for mean transit time maps, 3 (2–4), for cerebral blood flow maps, and 5 (3–7) for CTP mismatch. Univariate analysis showed a significant correlation between CCS and ASPECTS for all CTP parameters. Multivariate analysis confirmed an independent association only between CCS and CBV (p=0.020 when CCS was considered as a dichotomous variable, p=0.026 with ordinal CCS).ConclusionsA correlation between angiographic assessment of the collateral circulation and CTP seems to be present, suggesting that CCS may provide an indirect evaluation of the infarct core volume to consider for patient selection in AIS.
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- Bhatt, Deepak L., et al.
(author)
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Rationale, design and baseline characteristics of the effect of ticagrelor on health outcomes in diabetes mellitus patients Intervention study
- 2019
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In: Clinical Cardiology. - : Wiley. - 0160-9289 .- 1932-8737. ; 42:5, s. 498-505
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In the setting of prior myocardial infarction, the oral antiplatelet ticagrelor added to aspirin reduced the risk of recurrent ischemic events, especially, in those with diabetes mellitus. Patients with stable coronary disease and diabetes are also at elevated risk and might benefit from dual antiplatelet therapy. The Effect of Ticagrelor on Health Outcomes in diabEtes Mellitus patients Intervention Study (THEMIS, NCT01991795) is a Phase 3b randomized, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial of ticagrelor vs placebo, on top of low dose aspirin. Patients >= 50 years with type 2 diabetes receiving anti-diabetic medications for at least 6 months with stable coronary artery disease as determined by a history of previous percutaneous coronary intervention, bypass grafting, or angiographic stenosis of >= 50% of at least one coronary artery were enrolled. Patients with known prior myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke were excluded. The primary efficacy endpoint is a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke. The primary safety endpoint is Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction major bleeding. A total of 19 220 patients worldwide have been randomized and at least 1385 adjudicated primary efficacy endpoint events are expected to be available for analysis, with an expected average follow-up of 40 months (maximum 58 months). Most of the exposure is on a 60 mg twice daily dose, as the dose was lowered from 90 mg twice daily partway into the study. The results may revise the boundaries of efficacy for dual antiplatelet therapy and whether it has a role outside acute coronary syndromes, prior myocardial infarction, or percutaneous coronary intervention.
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- Cho, Eunyoung, et al.
(author)
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Alcohol intake and colorectal cancer : a pooled analysis of 8 cohort studies
- 2004
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In: Annals of Internal Medicine. - : American College of Physicians. - 0003-4819 .- 1539-3704. ; 140:8, s. 603-613
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Epidemiologic studies have generally reported positive associations between alcohol consumption and risk for colorectal cancer. However, findings related to specific alcoholic beverages or different anatomic sites in the large bowel have been inconsistent. OBJECTIVE: To examine the relationship of total alcohol intake and intake from specific beverages to the incidence of colorectal cancer and to evaluate whether other potential risk factors modify the association. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of primary data from 8 cohort studies in 5 countries. SETTING: North America and Europe. PARTICIPANTS: 489,979 women and men with no history of cancer other than nonmelanoma skin cancer at baseline. MEASUREMENTS: Alcohol intake was assessed in each study at baseline by using a validated food-frequency questionnaire. RESULTS: During a maximum of 6 to 16 years of follow-up across the studies, 4687 cases of colorectal cancer were documented. In categorical analyses, increased risk for colorectal cancer was limited to persons with an alcohol intake of 30 g/d or greater (approximately > or =2 drinks/d), a consumption level reported by 4% of women and 13% of men. Compared with nondrinkers, the pooled multivariate relative risks were 1.16 (95% CI, 0.99 to 1.36) for persons who consumed 30 to less than 45 g/d and 1.41 (CI, 1.16 to 1.72) for those who consumed 45 g/d or greater. No significant heterogeneity by study or sex was observed. The association was evident for cancer of the proximal colon, distal colon, and rectum. No clear difference in relative risks was found among specific alcoholic beverages. LIMITATIONS: The study included only one measure of alcohol consumption at baseline and could not investigate lifetime alcohol consumption, alcohol consumption at younger ages, or changes in alcohol consumption during follow-up. It also could not examine drinking patterns or duration of alcohol use. CONCLUSIONS: A single determination of alcohol intake correlated with a modest relative elevation in colorectal cancer rate, mainly at the highest levels of alcohol intake.
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