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2. |
- Kim, Joon Tae, et al.
(author)
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Dual antiplatelet Use for extended period taRgeted to AcuTe ischemic stroke with presumed atherosclerotic OrigiN (DURATION) trial : Rationale and design
- 2023
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In: International Journal of Stroke. - : SAGE Publications. - 1747-4930 .- 1747-4949. ; 18:8, s. 1015-1020
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Rationale: The optimal duration of dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) with clopidogrel-aspirin for the large artery atherosclerotic (LAA) stroke subtype has been debated. Aims: To determine whether the 1-year risk of recurrent vascular events could be reduced by a longer duration of DAPT in patients with the LAA stroke subtype. Methods and study design: A total of 4806 participants will be recruited to detect a statistically significant relative risk reduction of 22% with 80% power and a two-sided alpha error of 0.05, including a 10% loss to follow-up. This is a registry-based, multicenter, prospective, randomized, open-label, blinded end point study designed to evaluate the efficacy and safety of a 12-month duration of DAPT compared with a 3-month duration of DAPT in the LAA stroke subtype. Patients will be randomized (1:1) to either DAPT for 12 months or DAPT for 3 months, followed by monotherapy (either aspirin or clopidogrel) for the remaining 9 months. Study outcomes: The primary efficacy outcome of the study is a composite of stroke (ischemic or hemorrhagic), myocardial infarction, and all-cause mortality for 1 year after the index stroke. The secondary efficacy outcomes are (1) stroke, (2) ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack, (3) hemorrhagic stroke, and (4) all-cause mortality. The primary safety outcome is major bleeding. Discussion: This study will help stroke physicians determine the appropriate duration of dual therapy with clopidogrel-aspirin for patients with the LAA stroke subtype. Trial registration: URL: https://cris.nih.go.kr/cris. CRIS Registration Number: KCT0004407.
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3. |
- Kim, Kwangwoo, et al.
(author)
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High-density genotyping of immune loci in Koreans and Europeans identifies eight new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci
- 2015
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In: Annals of the Rheumatic Diseases. - : BMJ. - 0003-4967 .- 1468-2060. ; 74:3
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Objective A highly polygenic aetiology and high degree of allele-sharing between ancestries have been well elucidated in genetic studies of rheumatoid arthritis. Recently, the high-density genotyping array Immunochip for immune disease loci identified 14 new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci among individuals of European ancestry. Here, we aimed to identify new rheumatoid arthritis risk loci using Korean-specific Immunochip data. Methods We analysed Korean rheumatoid arthritis case-control samples using the Immunochip and genome-wide association studies (GWAS) array to search for new risk alleles of rheumatoid arthritis with anticitrullinated peptide antibodies. To increase power, we performed a meta-analysis of Korean data with previously published European Immunochip and GWAS data for a total sample size of 9299 Korean and 45 790 European case-control samples. Results We identified eight new rheumatoid arthritis susceptibility loci (TNFSF4, LBH, EOMES, ETS1-FLI1, COG6, RAD51B, UBASH3A and SYNGR1) that passed a genome-wide significance threshold (p<5x10(-8)), with evidence for three independent risk alleles at 1q25/TNFSF4. The risk alleles from the seven new loci except for the TNFSF4 locus (monomorphic in Koreans), together with risk alleles from previously established RA risk loci, exhibited a high correlation of effect sizes between ancestries. Further, we refined the number of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that represent potentially causal variants through a trans-ethnic comparison of densely genotyped SNPs. Conclusions This study demonstrates the advantage of dense-mapping and trans-ancestral analysis for identification of potentially causal SNPs. In addition, our findings support the importance of T cells in the pathogenesis and the fact of frequent overlap of risk loci among diverse autoimmune diseases.
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4. |
- Luo, Yifei, et al.
(author)
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Technology Roadmap for Flexible Sensors
- 2023
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In: ACS Nano. - : American Chemical Society. - 1936-0851 .- 1936-086X. ; 17:6, s. 5211-5295
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humans rely increasingly on sensors to address grand challenges and to improve quality of life in the era of digitalization and big data. For ubiquitous sensing, flexible sensors are developed to overcome the limitations of conventional rigid counterparts. Despite rapid advancement in bench-side research over the last decade, the market adoption of flexible sensors remains limited. To ease and to expedite their deployment, here, we identify bottlenecks hindering the maturation of flexible sensors and propose promising solutions. We first analyze challenges in achieving satisfactory sensing performance for real-world applications and then summarize issues in compatible sensor-biology interfaces, followed by brief discussions on powering and connecting sensor networks. Issues en route to commercialization and for sustainable growth of the sector are also analyzed, highlighting environmental concerns and emphasizing nontechnical issues such as business, regulatory, and ethical considerations. Additionally, we look at future intelligent flexible sensors. In proposing a comprehensive roadmap, we hope to steer research efforts towards common goals and to guide coordinated development strategies from disparate communities. Through such collaborative efforts, scientific breakthroughs can be made sooner and capitalized for the betterment of humanity.
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5. |
- Ko, Bong-Kook, et al.
(author)
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Combination of novel HER2-targeting antibody 1E11 with trastuzumab shows synergistic antitumor activity in HER2-positive gastric cancer
- 2015
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In: Molecular Oncology. - : Elsevier. - 1878-0261 .- 1574-7891. ; 9:2, s. 398-408
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The synergistic interaction of two antibodies targeting the same protein could be developed as an effective anti-cancer therapy. Human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) is overexpressed in 20-25% of breast and gastric cancer patients, and HER2-targeted antibody therapy using trastuzumab is effective in many of these patients. Nonetheless, improving therapeutic efficacy and patient survival is important, particularly in patients with HER2-positive gastric cancer. Here, we describe the development of 1E11, a HER2-targeted humanized monoclonal antibody showing increased efficacy in a highly synergistic manner in combination with trastuzumab in the HER2-overexpressing gastric cancer cell lines NCI-N87 and OE-19. The two antibodies bind to sub-domain IV of the receptor, but have non-overlapping epitopes, allowing them to simultaneously bind HER2. Treatment with 1E11 alone induced apoptosis in HER2-positive cancer cells, and this effect was enhanced by combination treatment with trastuzumab. Combination treatment with 1E11 and trastuzumab reduced the levels of total HER2 protein and those of aberrant HER2 signaling molecules including phosphorylated HER3 and EGFR. The synergistic antitumor activity of 1E11 in combination with trastuzumab indicates that it could be a novel potent therapeutic antibody for the treatment of HER2-overexpressing gastric cancers.
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7. |
- Birney, Ewan, et al.
(author)
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Identification and analysis of functional elements in 1% of the human genome by the ENCODE pilot project
- 2007
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 447:7146, s. 799-816
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We report the generation and analysis of functional data from multiple, diverse experiments performed on a targeted 1% of the human genome as part of the pilot phase of the ENCODE Project. These data have been further integrated and augmented by a number of evolutionary and computational analyses. Together, our results advance the collective knowledge about human genome function in several major areas. First, our studies provide convincing evidence that the genome is pervasively transcribed, such that the majority of its bases can be found in primary transcripts, including non-protein-coding transcripts, and those that extensively overlap one another. Second, systematic examination of transcriptional regulation has yielded new understanding about transcription start sites, including their relationship to specific regulatory sequences and features of chromatin accessibility and histone modification. Third, a more sophisticated view of chromatin structure has emerged, including its inter-relationship with DNA replication and transcriptional regulation. Finally, integration of these new sources of information, in particular with respect to mammalian evolution based on inter- and intra-species sequence comparisons, has yielded new mechanistic and evolutionary insights concerning the functional landscape of the human genome. Together, these studies are defining a path for pursuit of a more comprehensive characterization of human genome function.
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8. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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9. |
- Jung, Young-Eun, et al.
(author)
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The Korean version of the Connor-Davidson Resilience Scale: An extended validation
- 2012
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In: Stress and Health. - : John Wiley & Sons. - 1532-3005 .- 1532-2998. ; 28:4, s. 319-326
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Connor–Davidson Resilience Scale (CD‐RISC) is a brief self‐rating questionnaire for measuring resilience. The aims of the present study were to describe the development of a Korean version of the CD‐RISC (K‐CD‐RISC) and to more firmly establish its psychometric properties in terms of reliability and validity. The participants consisted of a general population sample (n = 194) and psychiatric outpatients (n = 127) with non‐psychotic mood or anxiety disorders. The K‐CD‐RISC score means (standard deviation) were 65.9 (13.6) in the general population and 50.4 (20.5) in the psychiatric outpatients. The mean score of the general population was significantly higher than that of the psychiatric outpatients. Exploratory factor analysis revealed five factors, and the obtained factor structure was verified through confirmatory factor analysis. In the general population, the Cronbach's α coefficient of the K‐CD‐RISC was found to be 0.92. Greater resilience was found to be associated with less perceived stress, anxiety and depression and with higher levels of positive affect and purpose in life. Taken together, our findings suggest that the K‐CD‐RISC has good psychometric properties and is a valid and reliable tool for assessing resilience.
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10. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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11. |
- Vos, Theo, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 386:9995, s. 743-800
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2.4 billion and 1.6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537.6 million in 1990 to 764.8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114.87 per 1000 people to 110.31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21.1% in 1990 to 31.2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
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13. |
- Kim, Tae Young, et al.
(author)
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Dna polymerase alpha subunit b is a binding protein for erlotinib resistance in non-small cell lung cancer
- 2020
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In: Cancers. - : MDPI AG. - 2072-6694. ; 12:9, s. 1-14
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Erlotinib inhibits epithelial growth factor receptor (EGFR) kinase activity and is used to treat non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Despite its high efficacy, recurrence can occur in patients who become resistant to the drug. To address the underlying mechanism of Erlotinib resistance, we investigated additional mechanisms related to mode-of-drug-action, by multiple protein-binding interactions, besides EGFR by using drug affinity responsive target stability (DARTS) and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS) methods with non-labeled Erlotinib. DNA polymerase alpha subunit B (POLA2) was identified as a new Erlotinib binding protein that was validated by the DARTS platform, complemented with cellular thermal shift assays. Genetic knock-down of POLA2 promoted the anti-proliferative effect of the drug in the Erlotinib-resistant cell line H1299 with high POLA2 expression, whereas the overexpression of POLA2 restored anti-proliferative effects in the Erlotinib-sensitive cell line HCC827 with low POLA2 expression. Importantly, POLA2 expression levels in four NSCLC cell lines were positively correlated with anti-proliferative Erlotinib efficacy (Pearson correlation coefficient, R = 0.9886). These results suggest that POLA2 is a novel complementary target protein of Erlotinib, and could clinically provide validity as a surrogate marker for drug resistance in patients with NSCLC.
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14. |
- Kim, Yonghyo, et al.
(author)
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Identification and validation of VEGFR2 kinase as a target of voacangine by a systematic combination of DARTS and MSI
- 2020
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In: Biomolecules. - : MDPI AG. - 2218-273X. ; 10:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although natural products are an important source of drugs and drug leads, identification and validation of their target proteins have proven difficult. Here, we report the development of a systematic strategy for target identification and validation employing drug affinity responsive target stability (DARTS) and mass spectrometry imaging (MSI) without modifying or labeling natural compounds. Through a validation step using curcumin, which targets aminopeptidase N (APN), we successfully standardized the systematic strategy. Using label-free voacangine, an antiangiogenic alkaloid molecule as the model natural compound, DARTS analysis revealed vascular endothelial growth factor receptor 2 (VEGFR2) as a target protein. Voacangine inhibits VEGFR2 kinase activity and its downstream signaling by binding to the kinase domain of VEGFR2, as was revealed by docking simulation. Through cell culture assays, voacangine was found to inhibit the growth of glioblastoma cells expressing high levels of VEGFR2. Specific localization of voacangine to tumor compartments in a glioblastoma xenograft mouse was revealed by MSI analysis. The overlap of histological images with the MSI signals for voacangine was intense in the tumor regions and showed colocalization of voacangine and VEGFR2 in the tumor tissues by immunofluorescence analysis of VEGFR2. The strategy employing DARTS and MSI to identify and validate the targets of a natural compound as demonstrated for voacangine in this study is expected to streamline the general approach of drug discovery and validation using other biomolecules including natural products.
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15. |
- Proletov, Ian, et al.
(author)
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Primary and secondary glomerulonephritides 1.
- 2014
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In: Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association. - : Oxford University Press (OUP). - 1460-2385. ; 29 Suppl 3:May, s. 186-200
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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16. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2014
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In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 384:9947, s. 957-979
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success.METHODS: We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030.FINDINGS: We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone.INTERPRETATION: Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
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