| 1. |
- Rammelt, Crelis F., et al.
(author)
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Impacts of meeting minimum access on critical earth systems amidst the Great Inequality
- 2023
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In: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:2, s. 212-221
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Sustainable Development Goals aim to improve access to resources and services, reduce environmental degradation, eradicate poverty and reduce inequality. However, the magnitude of the environmental burden that would arise from meeting the needs of the poorest is under debate—especially when compared to much larger burdens from the rich. We show that the ‘Great Acceleration’ of human impacts was characterized by a ‘Great Inequality’ in using and damaging the environment. We then operationalize ‘just access’ to minimum energy, water, food and infrastructure. We show that achieving just access in 2018, with existing inequalities, technologies and behaviours, would have produced 2–26% additional impacts on the Earth’s natural systems of climate, water, land and nutrients—thus further crossing planetary boundaries. These hypothetical impacts, caused by about a third of humanity, equalled those caused by the wealthiest 1–4%. Technological and behavioural changes thus far, while important, did not deliver just access within a stable Earth system. Achieving these goals therefore calls for a radical redistribution of resources.
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| 2. |
- Brovkin, Victor, et al.
(author)
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Past abrupt changes, tipping points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
- 2021
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In: Nature Geoscience. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1752-0894 .- 1752-0908. ; 14:8, s. 550-558
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- A synthesis of intervals of rapid climatic change evident in the geological record reveals some of the Earth system processes and tipping points that could lead to similar events in the future. The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate-ecological-social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.
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| 3. |
- Dearing, John A., et al.
(author)
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Safe and just operating spaces for regional social-ecological systems
- 2014
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In: Global Environmental Change. - : Elsevier BV. - 0959-3780 .- 1872-9495. ; 28, s. 227-238
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Humanity faces a major global challenge in achieving wellbeing for all, while simultaneously ensuring that the biophysical processes and ecosystem services that underpin wellbeing are exploited within scientifically informed boundaries of sustainability. We propose a framework for defining the safe and just operating space for humanity that integrates social wellbeing into the original planetary boundaries concept (Rockstrom et al., 2009a,b) for application at regional scales. We argue that such a framework can: (1) increase the policy impact of the boundaries concept as most governance takes place at the regional rather than planetary scale; (2) contribute to the understanding and dissemination of complexity thinking throughout governance and policy-making; (3) act as a powerful metaphor and communication tool for regional equity and sustainability. We demonstrate the approach in two rural Chinese localities where we define the safe and just operating space that lies between an environmental ceiling and a social foundation from analysis of time series drawn from monitored and palaeoecological data, and from social survey statistics respectively. Agricultural intensification has led to poverty reduction, though not eradicated it, but at the expense of environmental degradation. Currently, the environmental ceiling is exceeded for degraded water quality at both localities even though the least well-met social standards are for available piped water and sanitation. The conjunction of these social needs and environmental constraints around the issue of water access and quality illustrates the broader value of the safe and just operating space approach for sustainable development.
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| 4. |
- Gupta, Joyeeta, et al.
(author)
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Earth system justice needed to identify and live within Earth system boundaries
- 2023
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In: Nature Sustainability. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 2398-9629. ; 6:6, s. 630-638
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Living within planetary limits requires attention to justice as biophysical boundaries are not inherently just. Through collaboration between natural and social scientists, the Earth Commission defines and operationalizes Earth system justice to ensure that boundaries reduce harm, increase well-being, and reflect substantive and procedural justice. Such stringent boundaries may also affect ‘just access’ to food, water, energy and infrastructure. We show how boundaries may need to be adjusted to reduce harm and increase access, and challenge inequality to ensure a safe and just future for people, other species and the planet. Earth system justice may enable living justly within boundaries.
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| 5. |
- Lenton, Timothy M., et al.
(author)
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A resilience sensing system for the biosphere
- 2022
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In: Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Biological Sciences. - : The Royal Society. - 0962-8436 .- 1471-2970. ; 377:1857
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems—loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work.
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| 6. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Identifying a Safe and Just Corridor for People and the Planet
- 2021
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In: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 9:4
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Keeping the Earth system in a stable and resilient state, to safeguard Earth's life support systems while ensuring that Earth's benefits, risks, and related responsibilities are equitably shared, constitutes the grand challenge for human development in the Anthropocene. Here, we describe a framework that the recently formed Earth Commission will use to define and quantify target ranges for a safe and just corridor that meets these goals. Although safe and just Earth system targets are interrelated, we see safe as primarily referring to a stable Earth system and just targets as being associated with meeting human needs and reducing exposure to risks. To align safe and just dimensions, we propose to address the equity dimensions of each safe target for Earth system regulating systems and processes. The more stringent of the safe or just target ranges then defines the corridor. Identifying levers of social transformation aimed at meeting the safe and just targets and challenges associated with translating the corridor to actors at multiple scales present scope for future work.
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| 7. |
- Abrams, Jesse F., et al.
(author)
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Committed Global Warming Risks Triggering Multiple Climate Tipping Points
- 2023
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In: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 11:11
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Many scenarios for limiting global warming to 1.5(degrees)C assume planetary-scale carbon dioxide removal sufficient to exceed anthropogenic emissions, resulting in radiative forcing falling and temperatures stabilizing. However, such removal technology may prove unfeasible for technical, environmental, political, or economic reasons, resulting in continuing greenhouse gas emissions from hard-to-mitigate sectors. This may lead to constant concentration scenarios, where net anthropogenic emissions remain non-zero but small, and are roughly balanced by natural carbon sinks. Such a situation would keep atmospheric radiative forcing roughly constant. Fixed radiative forcing creates an equilibrium committed warming, captured in the concept of equilibrium climate sensitivity. This scenario is rarely analyzed as a potential extension to transient climate scenarios. Here, we aim to understand the planetary response to such fixed concentration commitments, with an emphasis on assessing the resulting likelihood of exceeding temperature thresholds that trigger climate tipping points. We explore transients followed by respective equilibrium committed warming initiated under low to high emission scenarios. We find that the likelihood of crossing the 1.5(degrees)C threshold and the 2.0(degrees)C threshold is 83% and 55%, respectively, if today's radiative forcing is maintained until achieving equilibrium global warming. Under the scenario that best matches current national commitments (RCP4.5), we estimate that in the transient stage, two tipping points will be crossed. If radiative forcing is then held fixed after the year 2100, a further six tipping point thresholds are crossed. Achieving a trajectory similar to RCP2.6 requires reaching net-zero emissions rapidly, which would greatly reduce the likelihood of tipping events.
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| 8. |
- Armstrong McKay, David I., et al.
(author)
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Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
- 2022
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In: Science. - : American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS). - 0036-8075 .- 1095-9203. ; 377:6611
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a warming threshold, leading to substantial Earth system impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global “core” tipping elements and regional “impact” tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above preindustrial temperatures already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5 to <2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2 to 3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.
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| 9. |
- Armstrong McKay, David I., et al.
(author)
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Reduced carbon cycle resilience across the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum
- 2018
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 14:10, s. 1515-1527
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Several past episodes of rapid carbon cycle and climate change are hypothesised to be the result of the Earth system reaching a tipping point beyond which an abrupt transition to a new state occurs. At the Palaeocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) at similar to 56 Ma and at subsequent hyperthermal events, hypothesised tipping points involve the abrupt transfer of carbon from surface reservoirs to the atmosphere. Theory suggests that tipping points in complex dynamical systems should be preceded by critical slowing down of their dynamics, including increasing temporal auto-correlation and variability. However, reliably detecting these indicators in palaeorecords is challenging, with issues of data quality, false positives, and parameter selection potentially affecting reliability. Here we show that in a sufficiently long, high-resolution palaeorecord there is consistent evidence of destabilisation of the carbon cycle in the similar to 1.5 Myr prior to the PETM, elevated carbon cycle and climate instability following both the PETM and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 (ETM2), and different drivers of carbon cycle dynamics preceding the PETM and ETM2 events. Our results indicate a loss of resilience (weakened stabilising negative feedbacks and greater sensitivity to small shocks) in the carbon cycle before the PETM and in the carbon-climate system following it. This pre-PETM carbon cycle destabilisation may reflect gradual forcing by the contemporaneous North Atlantic Volcanic Province eruptions, with volcanism-driven warming potentially weakening the organic carbon burial feedback. Our results are consistent with but cannot prove the existence of a tipping point for abrupt carbon release, e.g. from methane hydrate or terrestrial organic carbon reservoirs, where as we find no support for a tipping point in deep ocean temperature.
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| 10. |
- Boysen, Lena R., et al.
(author)
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The limits to global-warming mitigation by terrestrial carbon removal
- 2017
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In: Earth's Future. - 2328-4277. ; 5:5, s. 463-474
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reduction is a precondition for staying well below 2 degrees C global warming as envisaged by the Paris Agreement. Furthermore, extensive terrestrial carbon dioxide removal (tCDR) through managed biomass growth and subsequent carbon capture and storage is required to avoid temperature overshoot in most pertinent scenarios. Here, we address two major issues: First, we calculate the extent of tCDR required to repair delayed or insufficient emissions reduction policies unable to prevent global mean temperature rise of 2.5 degrees C or even 4.5 degrees C above pre-industrial level. Our results show that those tCDR measures are unable to counteract business-as-usual emissions without eliminating virtually all natural ecosystems. Even if considerable (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 [RCP4.5]) emissions reductions are assumed, tCDR with 50% storage efficiency requires >1.1 Gha of the most productive agricultural areas or the elimination of > 50% of natural forests. In addition, > 100 MtN/yr fertilizers would be needed to remove the roughly 320 GtC foreseen in these scenarios. Such interventions would severely compromise food production and/or biosphere functioning. Second, we reanalyze the requirements for achieving the 160-190 GtC tCDR that would complement strong mitigation action (RCP2.6) in order to avoid 2 degrees C overshoot anytime. We find that a combination of high irrigation water input and/or more efficient conversion to stored carbon is necessary. In the face of severe trade-offs with society and the biosphere, we conclude that large-scale tCDR is not a viable alternative to aggressive emissions reduction. However, we argue that tCDR might serve as a valuable supporting actor for strong mitigation if sustainable schemes are established immediately. Plain Language Summary In 2015, parties agreed to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees C above pre-industrial levels. However, this requires not only massive near-term greenhouse gas emissions reductions but also the application of negative emission techniques that extract already emitted carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Specifically, this could refer to the establishment of extensive plantations of fast-growing tree and grass species in combination with biomass conversion to carbon-saving products. Although such deployment is seen as promising, its carbon sequestration potentials and possible side-effects still remain to be studied in depth. In this study, we analyzed two feasibility aspects of such a negative emissions approach using biomass plantations and carbon utilization pathways. First, we show that biomass plantations with subsequent carbon immobilization are likely unable to repair insufficient emission reduction policies without compromising food production and biosphere functioning due to its space-consuming properties. Second, the requirements for a strong mitigation scenario staying below the 2 degrees C target would require a combination of high irrigation water input and development of highly effective carbon process chains. Although we find that this strategy of sequestering carbon is not a viable alternative to aggressive emission reductions, it could still support mitigation efforts if sustainably managed.
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| 11. |
- Lenton, Timothy M., et al.
(author)
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Earliest land plants created modern levels of atmospheric oxygen
- 2016
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 113:35, s. 9704-9709
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The progressive oxygenation of the Earth's atmosphere was pivotal to the evolution of life, but the puzzle of when and how atmospheric oxygen (O-2) first approached modern levels (similar to 21%) remains unresolved. Redox proxy data indicate the deep oceans were oxygenated during 435-392 Ma, and the appearance of fossil charcoal indicates O-2 > 15-17% by 420-400 Ma. However, existing models have failed to predict oxygenation at this time. Here we show that the earliest plants, which colonized the land surface from similar to 470 Ma onward, were responsible for this mid-Paleozoic oxygenation event, through greatly increasing global organic carbon burialthe net long-term source of O-2. We use a trait-based ecophysiological model to predict that cryptogamic vegetation cover could have achieved similar to 30% of today's global terrestrial net primary productivity by similar to 445 Ma. Data from modern bryophytes suggests this plentiful early plant material had a much higher molar C:P ratio (similar to 2,000) than marine biomass (similar to 100), such that a given weathering flux of phosphorus could support more organic carbon burial. Furthermore, recent experiments suggest that early plants selectively increased the flux of phosphorus (relative to alkalinity) weathered from rocks. Combining these effects in a model of long-term biogeochemical cycling, we reproduce a sustained +2% increase in the carbonate carbon isotope (delta C-13) record by similar to 445 Ma, and predict a corresponding rise in O-2 to present levels by 420-400 Ma, consistent with geochemical data. This oxygen rise represents a permanent shift in regulatory regime to one where fire-mediated negative feedbacks stabilize high O-2 levels.
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| 12. |
- Obura, David O., et al.
(author)
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Achieving a nature- and people-positive future
- 2023
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In: One Earth. - : Elsevier BV. - 2590-3330 .- 2590-3322. ; 6:2, s. 105-117
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Research review (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Despite decades of increasing investment in conservation, we have not succeeded in “bending the curve” of biodiversity decline. Efforts to meet new targets and goals for the next three decades risk repeating this outcome due to three factors: neglect of increasing drivers of decline; unrealistic expectations and time frames of biodiversity recovery; and insufficient attention to justice within and between generations and across countries. Our Earth system justice approach identifies six sets of actions that when tackled simultaneously address these failings: (1) reduce and reverse direct and indirect drivers causing decline; (2) halt and reverse biodiversity loss; (3) restore and regenerate biodiversity to a safe state; (4) raise minimum wellbeing for all; (5) eliminate over-consumption and excesses associated with accumulation of capital; and (6) uphold and respect the rights and responsibilities of all communities, present and future. Current conservation campaigns primarily address actions 2 and 3, with urgent upscaling of actions 1, 4, 5, and 6 needed to help deliver the post-2020 global biodiversity framework.
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| 13. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(author)
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A safe operating space for humanity
- 2009
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0028-0836 .- 1476-4687. ; 461:7263, s. 472-475
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)
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| 14. |
- Rockström, Johan, et al.
(author)
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Planetary Boundaries : Exploring the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
- 2009
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In: Ecology and Society. - 1708-3087. ; 14:2, s. 32-
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Anthropogenic pressures on the Earth System have reached a scale where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded. We propose a new approach to global sustainability in which we define planetary boundaries within which we expect that humanity can operate safely. Transgressing one or more planetary boundaries may be deleterious or even catastrophic due to the risk of crossing thresholds that will trigger non-linear, abrupt environmental change within continental- to planetary-scale systems. We have identified nine planetary boundaries and, drawing upon current scientific understanding, we propose quantifications for seven of them. These seven are climate change (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere <350 ppm and/or a maximum change of +1 W m(-2) in radiative forcing); ocean acidification (mean surface seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite >= 80% of pre-industrial levels); stratospheric ozone (<5% reduction in O-3 concentration from pre-industrial level of 290 Dobson Units); biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle (limit industrial and agricultural fixation of N-2 to 35 Tg N yr(-1)) and phosphorus (P) cycle (annual P inflow to oceans not to exceed 10 times the natural background weathering of P); global freshwater use (<4000 km(3) yr(-1) of consumptive use of runoff resources); land system change (<15% of the ice-free land surface under cropland); and the rate at which biological diversity is lost (annual rate of <10 extinctions per million species). The two additional planetary boundaries for which we have not yet been able to determine a boundary level are chemical pollution and atmospheric aerosol loading. We estimate that humanity has already transgressed three planetary boundaries: for climate change, rate of biodiversity loss, and changes to the global nitrogen cycle. Planetary boundaries are interdependent, because transgressing one may both shift the position of other boundaries or cause them to be transgressed. The social impacts of transgressing boundaries will be a function of the social-ecological resilience of the affected societies. Our proposed boundaries are rough, first estimates only, surrounded by large uncertainties and knowledge gaps. Filling these gaps will require major advancements in Earth System and resilience science. The proposed concept of "planetary boundaries" lays the groundwork for shifting our approach to governance and management, away from the essentially sectoral analyses of limits to growth aimed at minimizing negative externalities, toward the estimation of the safe space for human development. Planetary boundaries define, as it were, the boundaries of the "planetary playing field" for humanity if we want to be sure of avoiding major human-induced environmental change on a global scale.
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| 15. |
- Sproson, Adam D., et al.
(author)
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Osmium and lithium isotope evidence for weathering feedbacks linked to orbitally paced organic carbon burial and Silurian glaciations
- 2022
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In: Earth and Planetary Science Letters. - : Elsevier BV. - 0012-821X. ; 577
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- The Ordovician (∼487 to 443 Ma) ended with the formation of extensive Southern Hemisphere ice sheets, known as the Hirnantian glaciation, and the second largest mass extinction in Earth History. It was followed by the Silurian (∼443 to 419 Ma), one of the most climatically unstable periods of the Phanerozoic as evidenced by several large scale (>5‰) carbon isotope (δ13C) perturbations associated with further extinction events. Despite several decades of research, the cause of these environmental instabilities remains enigmatic. Here, we provide osmium (187Os/188Os) and lithium (δ7Li) isotope measurements of marine sedimentary rocks that cover four Silurian δ13C excursions. Osmium and Li isotope records resemble those previously recorded for the Hirnantian glaciation suggesting a similar causal mechanism. When combined with a new dynamic carbon-osmium-lithium biogeochemical model we suggest that astronomical forcing of the marine organic carbon cycle, as opposed to a decline in volcanic arc degassing or the rise of early land plants, resulted in drawdown of atmospheric CO2, triggering continental scale glaciation, intense global cooling and eustatic sea-level lows recognised in the geological record. Lower atmospheric pCO2 and temperatures during the Hirnantian and Silurian glaciations suppressed CO2 removal by silicate weathering, driving 187Os/188Os and δ7Li variability, supporting the existence of climate-regulating feedbacks.
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| 16. |
- Steffen, Will, et al.
(author)
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Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene
- 2018
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In: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. - : Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. - 0027-8424 .- 1091-6490. ; 115:33, s. 8252-8259
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a Hothouse Earth pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System-biosphere, climate, and societies-and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.
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| 17. |
- Warszawski, Lila, et al.
(author)
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All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5 °C : a scenario appraisal
- 2021
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In: Environmental Research Letters. - : IOP Publishing. - 1748-9326. ; 16:6
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Climate science provides strong evidence of the necessity of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, in line with the Paris Climate Agreement. The IPCC 1.5 °C special report (SR1.5) presents 414 emissions scenarios modelled for the report, of which around 50 are classified as '1.5 °C scenarios', with no or low temperature overshoot. These emission scenarios differ in their reliance on individual mitigation levers, including reduction of global energy demand, decarbonisation of energy production, development of land-management systems, and the pace and scale of deploying carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies. The reliance of 1.5 °C scenarios on these levers needs to be critically assessed in light of the potentials of the relevant technologies and roll-out plans. We use a set of five parameters to bundle and characterise the mitigation levers employed in the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios. For each of these levers, we draw on the literature to define 'medium' and 'high' upper bounds that delineate between their 'reasonable', 'challenging' and 'speculative' use by mid century. We do not find any 1.5 °C scenarios that stay within all medium upper bounds on the five mitigation levers. Scenarios most frequently 'over use' CDR with geological storage as a mitigation lever, whilst reductions of energy demand and carbon intensity of energy production are 'over used' less frequently. If we allow mitigation levers to be employed up to our high upper bounds, we are left with 22 of the SR1.5 1.5 °C scenarios with no or low overshoot. The scenarios that fulfil these criteria are characterised by greater coverage of the available mitigation levers than those scenarios that exceed at least one of the high upper bounds. When excluding the two scenarios that exceed the SR1.5 carbon budget for limiting global warming to 1.5 °C, this subset of 1.5 °C scenarios shows a range of 15–22 Gt CO2 (16–22 Gt CO2 interquartile range) for emissions in 2030. For the year of reaching net zero CO2 emissions the range is 2039–2061 (2049–2057 interquartile range).
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| 18. |
- Winkelmann, Ricarda, et al.
(author)
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Social tipping processes towards climate action : A conceptual framework
- 2022
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In: Ecological Economics. - : Elsevier BV. - 0921-8009 .- 1873-6106. ; 192
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes with respect to technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors have been suggested as potential key drivers towards climate action. Drawing from expert insights and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories towards climate action. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the prospective role of the FridaysForFuture movement. Accordingly, this conceptual framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation policies and actions.
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