| 1. |
- Lozano, Rafael, et al.
(author)
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Measuring progress from 1990 to 2017 and projecting attainment to 2030 of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals for 195 countries and territories: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
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In: The Lancet. - : Elsevier. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 2091-2138
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Efforts to establish the 2015 baseline and monitor early implementation of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) highlight both great potential for and threats to improving health by 2030. To fully deliver on the SDG aim of “leaving no one behind”, it is increasingly important to examine the health-related SDGs beyond national-level estimates. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017 (GBD 2017), we measured progress on 41 of 52 health-related SDG indicators and estimated the health-related SDG index for 195 countries and territories for the period 1990–2017, projected indicators to 2030, and analysed global attainment. Methods: We measured progress on 41 health-related SDG indicators from 1990 to 2017, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2016 (new indicators were health worker density, sexual violence by non-intimate partners, population census status, and prevalence of physical and sexual violence [reported separately]). We also improved the measurement of several previously reported indicators. We constructed national-level estimates and, for a subset of health-related SDGs, examined indicator-level differences by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile. We also did subnational assessments of performance for selected countries. To construct the health-related SDG index, we transformed the value for each indicator on a scale of 0–100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile and 100 as the 97·5th percentile of 1000 draws calculated from 1990 to 2030, and took the geometric mean of the scaled indicators by target. To generate projections through 2030, we used a forecasting framework that drew estimates from the broader GBD study and used weighted averages of indicator-specific and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2017 to inform future estimates. We assessed attainment of indicators with defined targets in two ways: first, using mean values projected for 2030, and then using the probability of attainment in 2030 calculated from 1000 draws. We also did a global attainment analysis of the feasibility of attaining SDG targets on the basis of past trends. Using 2015 global averages of indicators with defined SDG targets, we calculated the global annualised rates of change required from 2015 to 2030 to meet these targets, and then identified in what percentiles the required global annualised rates of change fell in the distribution of country-level rates of change from 1990 to 2015. We took the mean of these global percentile values across indicators and applied the past rate of change at this mean global percentile to all health-related SDG indicators, irrespective of target definition, to estimate the equivalent 2030 global average value and percentage change from 2015 to 2030 for each indicator. Findings: The global median health-related SDG index in 2017 was 59·4 (IQR 35·4–67·3), ranging from a low of 11·6 (95% uncertainty interval 9·6–14·0) to a high of 84·9 (83·1–86·7). SDG index values in countries assessed at the subnational level varied substantially, particularly in China and India, although scores in Japan and the UK were more homogeneous. Indicators also varied by SDI quintile and sex, with males having worse outcomes than females for non-communicable disease (NCD) mortality, alcohol use, and smoking, among others. Most countries were projected to have a higher health-related SDG index in 2030 than in 2017, while country-level probabilities of attainment by 2030 varied widely by indicator. Under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria indicators had the most countries with at least 95% probability of target attainment. Other indicators, including NCD mortality and suicide mortality, had no countries projected to meet corresponding SDG targets on the basis of projected mean values for 2030 but showed some probability of attainment by 2030. For some indicators, including child malnutrition, several infectious diseases, and most violence measures, the annualised rates of change required to meet SDG targets far exceeded the pace of progress achieved by any country in the recent past. We found that applying the mean global annualised rate of change to indicators without defined targets would equate to about 19% and 22% reductions in global smoking and alcohol consumption, respectively; a 47% decline in adolescent birth rates; and a more than 85% increase in health worker density per 1000 population by 2030. Interpretation: The GBD study offers a unique, robust platform for monitoring the health-related SDGs across demographic and geographic dimensions. Our findings underscore the importance of increased collection and analysis of disaggregated data and highlight where more deliberate design or targeting of interventions could accelerate progress in attaining the SDGs. Current projections show that many health-related SDG indicators, NCDs, NCD-related risks, and violence-related indicators will require a concerted shift away from what might have driven past gains—curative interventions in the case of NCDs—towards multisectoral, prevention-oriented policy action and investments to achieve SDG aims. Notably, several targets, if they are to be met by 2030, demand a pace of progress that no country has achieved in the recent past. The future is fundamentally uncertain, and no model can fully predict what breakthroughs or events might alter the course of the SDGs. What is clear is that our actions—or inaction—today will ultimately dictate how close the world, collectively, can get to leaving no one behind by 2030.
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| 2. |
- Smith, Jennifer A, et al.
(author)
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Genome-wide association study identifies 74 loci associated with educational attainment
- 2016
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In: Nature (London). - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 533:7604, s. 539-542
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Educational attainment is strongly influenced by social and other environmental factors, but genetic factors are estimated to account for at least 20% of the variation across individuals. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) for educational attainment that extends our earlier discovery sample of 101,069 individuals to 293,723 individuals, and a replication study in an independent sample of 111,349 individuals from the UK Biobank. We identify 74 genome-wide significant loci associated with the number of years of schooling completed. Single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with educational attainment are disproportionately found in genomic regions regulating gene expression in the fetal brain. Candidate genes are preferentially expressed in neural tissue, especially during the prenatal period, and enriched for biological pathways involved in neural development. Our findings demonstrate that, even for a behavioural phenotype that is mostly environmentally determined, a well-powered GWAS identifies replicable associated genetic variants that suggest biologically relevant pathways. Because educational attainment is measured in large numbers of individuals, it will continue to be useful as a proxy phenotype in efforts to characterize the genetic influences of related phenotypes, including cognition and neuropsychiatric diseases.
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| 3. |
- Wang, Haidong, et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national life expectancy, all-cause mortality, and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes of death, 1980-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1459-1544
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: Improving survival and extending the longevity of life for all populations requires timely, robust evidence on local mortality levels and trends. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides a comprehensive assessment of all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 249 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015. These results informed an in-depth investigation of observed and expected mortality patterns based on sociodemographic measures.METHODS: We estimated all-cause mortality by age, sex, geography, and year using an improved analytical approach originally developed for GBD 2013 and GBD 2010. Improvements included refinements to the estimation of child and adult mortality and corresponding uncertainty, parameter selection for under-5 mortality synthesis by spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, and sibling history data processing. We also expanded the database of vital registration, survey, and census data to 14 294 geography-year datapoints. For GBD 2015, eight causes, including Ebola virus disease, were added to the previous GBD cause list for mortality. We used six modelling approaches to assess cause-specific mortality, with the Cause of Death Ensemble Model (CODEm) generating estimates for most causes. We used a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and trends of cause-specific mortality as they relate to the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a summary indicator derived from measures of income per capita, educational attainment, and fertility. Second, we examined factors affecting total mortality patterns through a series of counterfactual scenarios, testing the magnitude by which population growth, population age structures, and epidemiological changes contributed to shifts in mortality. Finally, we attributed changes in life expectancy to changes in cause of death. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 estimation processes, as well as data sources, in accordance with Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER).FINDINGS: Globally, life expectancy from birth increased from 61·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 61·4-61·9) in 1980 to 71·8 years (71·5-72·2) in 2015. Several countries in sub-Saharan Africa had very large gains in life expectancy from 2005 to 2015, rebounding from an era of exceedingly high loss of life due to HIV/AIDS. At the same time, many geographies saw life expectancy stagnate or decline, particularly for men and in countries with rising mortality from war or interpersonal violence. From 2005 to 2015, male life expectancy in Syria dropped by 11·3 years (3·7-17·4), to 62·6 years (56·5-70·2). Total deaths increased by 4·1% (2·6-5·6) from 2005 to 2015, rising to 55·8 million (54·9 million to 56·6 million) in 2015, but age-standardised death rates fell by 17·0% (15·8-18·1) during this time, underscoring changes in population growth and shifts in global age structures. The result was similar for non-communicable diseases (NCDs), with total deaths from these causes increasing by 14·1% (12·6-16·0) to 39·8 million (39·2 million to 40·5 million) in 2015, whereas age-standardised rates decreased by 13·1% (11·9-14·3). Globally, this mortality pattern emerged for several NCDs, including several types of cancer, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, and Alzheimer's disease and other dementias. By contrast, both total deaths and age-standardised death rates due to communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional conditions significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, gains largely attributable to decreases in mortality rates due to HIV/AIDS (42·1%, 39·1-44·6), malaria (43·1%, 34·7-51·8), neonatal preterm birth complications (29·8%, 24·8-34·9), and maternal disorders (29·1%, 19·3-37·1). Progress was slower for several causes, such as lower respiratory infections and nutritional deficiencies, whereas deaths increased for others, including dengue and drug use disorders. Age-standardised death rates due to injuries significantly declined from 2005 to 2015, yet interpersonal violence and war claimed increasingly more lives in some regions, particularly in the Middle East. In 2015, rotaviral enteritis (rotavirus) was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to diarrhoea (146 000 deaths, 118 000-183 000) and pneumococcal pneumonia was the leading cause of under-5 deaths due to lower respiratory infections (393 000 deaths, 228 000-532 000), although pathogen-specific mortality varied by region. Globally, the effects of population growth, ageing, and changes in age-standardised death rates substantially differed by cause. Our analyses on the expected associations between cause-specific mortality and SDI show the regular shifts in cause of death composition and population age structure with rising SDI. Country patterns of premature mortality (measured as years of life lost [YLLs]) and how they differ from the level expected on the basis of SDI alone revealed distinct but highly heterogeneous patterns by region and country or territory. Ischaemic heart disease, stroke, and diabetes were among the leading causes of YLLs in most regions, but in many cases, intraregional results sharply diverged for ratios of observed and expected YLLs based on SDI. Communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases caused the most YLLs throughout sub-Saharan Africa, with observed YLLs far exceeding expected YLLs for countries in which malaria or HIV/AIDS remained the leading causes of early death.INTERPRETATION: At the global scale, age-specific mortality has steadily improved over the past 35 years; this pattern of general progress continued in the past decade. Progress has been faster in most countries than expected on the basis of development measured by the SDI. Against this background of progress, some countries have seen falls in life expectancy, and age-standardised death rates for some causes are increasing. Despite progress in reducing age-standardised death rates, population growth and ageing mean that the number of deaths from most non-communicable causes are increasing in most countries, putting increased demands on health systems.
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| 4. |
- Adjuik, Martin A., et al.
(author)
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The effect of dosing strategies on the therapeutic efficacy of artesunate-amodiaquine for uncomplicated malaria : a meta-analysis of individual patient data
- 2015
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In: BMC Medicine. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1741-7015. ; 13
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background: Artesunate-amodiaquine (AS-AQ) is one of the most widely used artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) to treat uncomplicated Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Africa. We investigated the impact of different dosing strategies on the efficacy of this combination for the treatment of falciparum malaria. Methods: Individual patient data from AS-AQ clinical trials were pooled using the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) standardised methodology. Risk factors for treatment failure were identified using a Cox regression model with shared frailty across study sites. Results: Forty-three studies representing 9,106 treatments from 1999-2012 were included in the analysis; 4,138 (45.4%) treatments were with a fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (FDC), 1,293 (14.2%) with a non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 25 mg/kg (loose NFDC-25), 2,418 (26.6%) with a non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (loose NFDC-30), and the remaining 1,257 (13.8%) with a co-blistered non-fixed dose combination with an AQ target dose of 30 mg/kg (co-blistered NFDC). The median dose of AQ administered was 32.1 mg/kg [IQR: 25.9-38.2], the highest dose being administered to patients treated with co-blistered NFDC (median = 35.3 mg/kg [IQR: 30.6-43.7]) and the lowest to those treated with loose NFDC-25 (median = 25.0 mg/kg [IQR: 22.7-25.0]). Patients treated with FDC received a median dose of 32.4 mg/kg [IQR: 27-39.0]. After adjusting for reinfections, the corrected antimalarial efficacy on day 28 after treatment was similar for co-blistered NFDC (97.9% [95% confidence interval (CI): 97.0-98.8%]) and FDC (98.1% [95% CI: 97.6%-98.5%]; P = 0.799), but significantly lower for the loose NFDC-25 (93.4% [95% CI: 91.9%-94.9%]), and loose NFDC-30 (95.0% [95% CI: 94.1%-95.9%]) (P < 0.001 for all comparisons). After controlling for age, AQ dose, baseline parasitemia and region; treatment with loose NFDC-25 was associated with a 3.5-fold greater risk of recrudescence by day 28 (adjusted hazard ratio, AHR = 3.51 [95% CI: 2.02-6.12], P < 0.001) compared to FDC, and treatment with loose NFDC-30 was associated with a higher risk of recrudescence at only three sites. Conclusions: There was substantial variation in the total dose of amodiaquine administered in different AS-AQ combination regimens. Fixed dose AS-AQ combinations ensure optimal dosing and provide higher antimalarial treatment efficacy than the loose individual tablets in all age categories.
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| 5. |
- Comas-Bru, Laia, et al.
(author)
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Evaluating model outputs using integrated global speleothem records of climate change since the last glacial
- 2019
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In: Climate of the Past. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1814-9324 .- 1814-9332. ; 15:4, s. 1557-1579
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data-model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem delta O-18 records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data-model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model's ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on delta O-18 values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.
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| 6. |
- Forouzanfar, Mohammad H, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 386:10010, s. 2287-2323
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.METHODS: Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.FINDINGS: All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.INTERPRETATION: Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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| 7. |
- Kassebaum, Nicholas J., et al.
(author)
-
Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 315 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE), 1990-2015 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015
- 2016
-
In: The Lancet. - 0140-6736 .- 1474-547X. ; 388:10053, s. 1603-1658
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Healthy life expectancy (HALE) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) provide summary measures of health across geographies and time that can inform assessments of epidemiological patterns and health system performance, help to prioritise investments in research and development, and monitor progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We aimed to provide updated HALE and DALYs for geographies worldwide and evaluate how disease burden changes with development. Methods We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 (GBD 2015) for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost (YLLs) and years of life lived with disability (YLDs) for each geography, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using the Sullivan method, which draws from age-specific death rates and YLDs per capita. We then assessed how observed levels of DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends calculated with the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator constructed from measures of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2015, with decreases in communicable, neonatal, maternal, and nutritional (Group 1) disease DALYs off set by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Much of this epidemiological transition was caused by changes in population growth and ageing, but it was accelerated by widespread improvements in SDI that also correlated strongly with the increasing importance of NCDs. Both total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most Group 1 causes significantly decreased by 2015, and although total burden climbed for the majority of NCDs, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined. Nonetheless, age-standardised DALY rates due to several high-burden NCDs (including osteoarthritis, drug use disorders, depression, diabetes, congenital birth defects, and skin, oral, and sense organ diseases) either increased or remained unchanged, leading to increases in their relative ranking in many geographies. From 2005 to 2015, HALE at birth increased by an average of 2.9 years (95% uncertainty interval 2.9-3.0) for men and 3.5 years (3.4-3.7) for women, while HALE at age 65 years improved by 0.85 years (0.78-0.92) and 1.2 years (1.1-1.3), respectively. Rising SDI was associated with consistently higher HALE and a somewhat smaller proportion of life spent with functional health loss; however, rising SDI was related to increases in total disability. Many countries and territories in central America and eastern sub-Saharan Africa had increasingly lower rates of disease burden than expected given their SDI. At the same time, a subset of geographies recorded a growing gap between observed and expected levels of DALYs, a trend driven mainly by rising burden due to war, interpersonal violence, and various NCDs. Interpretation Health is improving globally, but this means more populations are spending more time with functional health loss, an absolute expansion of morbidity. The proportion of life spent in ill health decreases somewhat with increasing SDI, a relative compression of morbidity, which supports continued efforts to elevate personal income, improve education, and limit fertility. Our analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework on which to benchmark geography-specific health performance and SDG progress. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform financial and research investments, prevention efforts, health policies, and health system improvement initiatives for all countries along the development continuum.
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| 8. |
- Naghavi, Mohsen, et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013
- 2015
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 385:9963, s. 117-171
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specifi c all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specifi c causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65.3 years (UI 65.0-65.6) in 1990, to 71.5 years (UI 71.0-71.9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47.5 million (UI 46.8-48.2) to 54.9 million (UI 53.6-56.3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute diff erences between countries decreased but relative diff erences increased. For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative diff erences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10.7%, from 4.3 million deaths in 1990 to 4.8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specifi c mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.
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| 9. |
- Stanaway, Jeffrey D., et al.
(author)
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Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
- 2018
-
In: The Lancet. - 1474-547X .- 0140-6736. ; 392:10159, s. 1923-1994
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Background The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017 comparative risk assessment (CRA) is a comprehensive approach to risk factor quantification that offers a useful tool for synthesising evidence on risks and risk-outcome associations. With each annual GBD study, we update the GBD CRA to incorporate improved methods, new risks and risk-outcome pairs, and new data on risk exposure levels and risk- outcome associations. Methods We used the CRA framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or groups of risks from 1990 to 2017. This study included 476 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from 46 749 randomised controlled trials, cohort studies, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We explored the relationship between development and risk exposure by modelling the relationship between the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and risk-weighted exposure prevalence and estimated expected levels of exposure and risk-attributable burden by SDI. Finally, we explored temporal changes in risk-attributable DALYs by decomposing those changes into six main component drivers of change as follows: (1) population growth; (2) changes in population age structures; (3) changes in exposure to environmental and occupational risks; (4) changes in exposure to behavioural risks; (5) changes in exposure to metabolic risks; and (6) changes due to all other factors, approximated as the risk-deleted death and DALY rates, where the risk-deleted rate is the rate that would be observed had we reduced the exposure levels to the TMREL for all risk factors included in GBD 2017.
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| 10. |
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| 11. |
- Alfredson, Håkan, et al.
(author)
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Glutamate NMDAR1 receptors localised to nerves in human Achilles tendons. Implications for treatment?
- 2001
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In: Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0942-2056 .- 1433-7347. ; 9:2, s. 123-126
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- In this investigation, we show the presence of both free glutamate (microdialysis) and glutamate NMDAR1 receptors (immunohistochemical analyses of tendon biopsies), in tendons from patients with chronic Achilles tendon pain (Achilles tendinosis) and in controls (pain-free tendons). The NMDAR1 immunoreaction was usually confined to acetylcholinesterase-positive structures, implying that the reaction is present in nerves. Glutamate is a potent pain mediator in the human central nervous system, and in animals it has been shown that peripherally administered glutamate NMDA receptor antagonists diminish the response to formalin-induced nociception. Our present finding of glutamate NMDA receptors in human Achilles tendons might have implications for pain treatment.
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| 12. |
- Andersson, Ronny, et al.
(author)
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Calculating CO2 Uptake for Existing Concrete Structures during and after Service Life
- 2013
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In: Environmental Science & Technology. - : American Chemical Society (ACS). - 1520-5851 .- 0013-936X. ; 47:20, s. 11625-11633
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- This paper presents a model that can calculate the uptake of CO2 in all existing concrete structures, including its uptake after service life. This is important for the calculation of the total CO2 uptake in the society and its time dependence. The model uses the well-documented cement use and knowledge of how the investments are distributed throughout the building sector to estimate the stock of concrete applications in a country. The depth of carbonation of these applications is estimated using two models, one theoretical and one based on field measurements. The maximum theoretical uptake potential is defined as the amount of CO2 that is emitted during calcination at the production of Portland cement, but the model can also, with some adjustments, be used for the other cement types. The model has been applied on data from Sweden and the results show a CO2 uptake in 2011 in all existing structures of about 300 000 tonnes, which corresponds to about 17% of the total emissions (calcination and fuel) from the production of new cement for use in Sweden in the same year. The study also shows that in the years 2030 and 2050, an increase in the uptake in crushed concrete, from 12 000 tonnes today to 200 000 and 500 000 tonnes of CO2, respectively, could be possible if the waste handling is redesigned.
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| 13. |
- Atsawawaranunt, Kamolphat, et al.
(author)
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The SISAL database : a global resource to document oxygen and carbon isotope records from speleothems
- 2018
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In: Earth System Science Data. - : Copernicus GmbH. - 1866-3508 .- 1866-3516. ; 10:3, s. 1687-1713
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Stable isotope records from speleothems provide information on past climate changes, most particularly information that can be used to reconstruct past changes in precipitation and atmospheric circulation. These records are increasingly being used to provide "out-of-sample" evaluations of isotope-enabled climate models. SISAL (Speleothem Isotope Synthesis and Analysis) is an international working group of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) project. The working group aims to provide a comprehensive compilation of speleothem isotope records for climate reconstruction and model evaluation. The SISAL database contains data for individual speleothems, grouped by cave system. Stable isotopes of oxygen and carbon (delta O-18, delta C-13) measurements are referenced by distance from the top or bottom of the speleothem. Additional tables provide information on dating, including information on the dates used to construct the original age model and sufficient information to assess the quality of each data set and to erect a standardized chronology across different speleothems. The metadata table provides location information, information on the full range of measurements carried out on each speleothem and information on the cave system that is relevant to the interpretation of the records, as well as citations for both publications and archived data.
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| 14. |
- Becken, Michael, et al.
(author)
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DESMEX: A novel system development for semi-airborne electromagnetic exploration
- 2020
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In: Geophysics. - : Society of Exploration Geophysicists. - 0016-8033 .- 1942-2156. ; 85:6, s. 253-267
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- There is a clear demand to increase detection depths in the context of raw material exploration programs. Semi-airborne electromagnetic (semi-AEM) methods can address these demands by combining the advantages of powerful transmitters deployed on the ground with efficient helicopter-borne mapping of the magnetic field response in the air.The penetration depth can exceed those of classical airborne EM systems,since low frequencies and large transmitter-receiver offsets can be realized in practice. A novel system has been developed that combines high-moment horizontal electric bipole transmitters on the ground with low-noise three-axis induction coilmagnetometers, a three-axis fluxgate magnetometer and a laser gyroinertial measurement unit integrated within a helicopter-towed airborne platform. The attitude data are used to correct the time series for motional noise and subsequently to rotate into an Earth-fixed reference frame. In a second processing step, and as opposed to existing semi-airborne systems, we transform the data into the frequency domain and estimate the complex-valued transfer functions between the received magnetic field components and the synchronously recorded injection current by regression analysis. This approach is similar to the procedure employed in controlled-source EM. For typical source bipole moments of 20-40 kAm and for rectangular current waveforms with a fundamental frequency of about 10 Hz, we can estimate reliable three-component transfer functions in the frequency range from 10-5000 Hz over a measurement area of 4 x 5 km2 for a single source installation. The system has the potential to be used for focused exploration of deep targets.
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| 15. |
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| 16. |
- Björklund, Martin, 1961-
(author)
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Effects of repetitive work on proprioception and of stretching on sensory mechanisms : implications for work-related neuromuscular disorders
- 2004
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Doctoral thesis (other academic/artistic)abstract
- The aims of the thesis were (i) to investigate the impact of repetitive low-intensity work exposure on proprioception and (ii) to examine effects of muscle stretching (especially sensory effects and effects on muscle nociception) and to relate its application to the prevention, alleviation and/or treatment of work-related neuromuscular disorders. The effects of low-intensity repetitive work on the shoulder proprioception were tested in healthy subjects. The effect of working time on the retention of subjective fatigue and their relation to changes in proprioception, and the immediate effect of stretching on shoulder proprioception were investigated. A new method to test the stretchability of the rectus femoris muscle was investigated for reliability and validity and used to assess the effects of a two-week stretching regimen on range of motion and on subjective stretch sensation. Finally, the interactions between innocuous muscle stretch and nociceptive chemical stimulation on discharge behavior of nociceptive dorsal horn neurons in the feline spinal cord were explored. The main findings were as follows: 1) The repetitive low-intensity work to fatigue diminished the shoulder proprioception; the working time as well as the retention of subjective fatigue were partly related to the extent of changed proprioception. 2) There was no effect of acute muscle stretching on the proprioception. 3) The new method for testing muscle stretchability proved valid and reliable. A two-week stretching regimen increased the tolerance to stretch torque, but the range of motion remained unchanged. 4) Half of the nociceptive dorsal horn neurons that responded to close arterial injections of bradykinin were modulated by muscle stretching applied directly after the injections. Altogether, the results give credence to the hypothesis of an involvement of sensory information distortion due to repetitive low-intensity work exposure in the development of work-related neuromuscular disorders. Increased tolerance to stretch torque may be an important mechanism in explaining improvements following stretch treatment. The spinal interactions between innocuous stretch and nociceptive muscle afferent inputs indicate a possible mechanism involved in stretching-induced pain alleviation.
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| 17. |
- Boerrnert, Felix, et al.
(author)
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Single-wall-carbon-nanotube/single-carbon-chain molecular junctions
- 2010
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In: Physical Review B. Condensed Matter and Materials Physics. - 1098-0121 .- 1550-235X. ; 81:8, s. 085439-1-085439-5
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Stable junctions between a single carbon chain and two single-wall carbon nanotubes were produced via coalescence of functionalized fullerenes filled into a single-wall carbon nanotube and directly imaged by in situ transmission electron microscopy. First principles quantum chemical calculations support the observed stability of such molecular junctions. They also show that short carbon chains bound to other carbon structures are cumulenes and stable semiconductors due to Peierls-like distortion. Junctions like this can be regarded as archetypical building blocks for all-carbon molecular electronics.
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| 18. |
- Bryhn, Andreas, et al.
(author)
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Fisk- och skaldjursbestånd i hav och sötvatten 2019 : Resursöversikt
- 2020
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- Fisken i havet är en resurs som rör sig fritt över nationella gränser. EU har därför en gemensam fiskeripolitik (GFP). Många arter som är viktiga för Sverige regleras inte i GFP och förvaltas därför nationellt.Denna rapport syftar till att:beskriva utvecklingen av fiskeripolitikenförklara den nuvarande politikens mål och regelverk och dess relation till mål och regler på miljöområdetförklara politikens nationella genomförande och det nationella handlingsutrymmetexemplifiera hur Havs- och vattenmyndigheten arbetat med att reglera fisket.
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| 19. |
- Bryhn, Andreas, et al.
(author)
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Fisk- och skaldjursbestånd i hav och sötvatten 2020 : Resursöversikt
- 2021
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Reports (other academic/artistic)abstract
- I rapporten kan du ta del av bedömningen som görs av situationen för bestånd som regleras inom ramen för EU:s gemensamma fiskeripolitik (GFP). Bedömningarna baseras på det forskningssamarbete och den rådgivning som sker inom det Internationella Havsforskningsrådet (ICES). Totalt redovisas underlag och råd för 48 fisk- och skaldjursarter.De bestånd som förvaltas nationellt baseras på de biologiska underlagen, och rådgivningen i huvudsak på den forskning och övervakning samt analys som bedrivs av Institutionen för akvatiska resurser vid Sveriges lantbruksuniversitet (SLU Aqua) samt yrkesfiskets rapportering.
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| 20. |
- Butler, Geraldine, et al.
(author)
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Evolution of pathogenicity and sexual reproduction in eight Candida genomes.
- 2009
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In: Nature. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 1476-4687 .- 0028-0836. ; 459:7247, s. 657-62
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Candida species are the most common cause of opportunistic fungal infection worldwide. Here we report the genome sequences of six Candida species and compare these and related pathogens and non-pathogens. There are significant expansions of cell wall, secreted and transporter gene families in pathogenic species, suggesting adaptations associated with virulence. Large genomic tracts are homozygous in three diploid species, possibly resulting from recent recombination events. Surprisingly, key components of the mating and meiosis pathways are missing from several species. These include major differences at the mating-type loci (MTL); Lodderomyces elongisporus lacks MTL, and components of the a1/2 cell identity determinant were lost in other species, raising questions about how mating and cell types are controlled. Analysis of the CUG leucine-to-serine genetic-code change reveals that 99% of ancestral CUG codons were erased and new ones arose elsewhere. Lastly, we revise the Candida albicans gene catalogue, identifying many new genes.
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| 21. |
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| 22. |
- Fahlström, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Acute Achilles tendon rupture in badminton players
- 1998
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In: American Journal of Sports Medicine. - : Sage. - 0363-5465 .- 1552-3365. ; 26:3, s. 467-470
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- All patients with badminton-related acute Achilles tendon ruptures registered during 1990 to 1994 at the University Hospital of Umeå were retrospectively followed up using a questionnaire. Thirty-one patients (mean age, 36.0 years), 27 men and 4 women, were included. Thirty patients (97%) described themselves as recreational players or beginners. The majority of the injuries (29 of 31, 94%) happened at the middle or end of the planned game. Previous local symptoms had been noticed by five patients (16%). Long-term results showed that patients treated with surgery had a significantly shorter sick leave absence than patients treated without surgery (50 versus 75 days). There was no obvious selection favoring any treatment modality. None of the surgically treated patients had reruptures, but two reruptures occurred in the nonsurgically treated group. There seemed to be fewer remaining symptoms and a higher sports activity level after the injury in the surgically treated group. Our results indicate that local muscle fatigue may interfere with strength and coordination. Preventive measures such as specific treatment of minor injuries and adequate training of strength, endurance, and coordination are important. Our findings also indicate that surgical treatment and careful postoperative rehabilitation is of great importance among badminton players of any age or sports level with Achilles tendon rupture.
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| 23. |
- Fahlström, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Acute badminton injuries
- 1998
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In: Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports. - : Wiley. - 0905-7188 .- 1600-0838. ; 8:3, s. 145-148
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- During 1990-1994, 1.2% of all sports injuries that required emergency care at the University Hospital of Umeå were caused by badminton. In 90.7% of the cases the patients described themselves as recreational players or beginners. There were 51.3% minor injuries (AIS 1) and 48.7% moderate injuries (AIS 2). The lower extremities were affected in 92.3% of the cases. Achilles tendon ruptures (34.6%) and ankle sprains and fractures (29.5%) were the most frequent. By the time of the follow-up (10-69 months), 52.6% of the players still had symptoms from the injuries and 39.5% had not been able to return to playing badminton. Our data indicate the importance of adequate treatment and rehabilitation after acute badminton injuries.
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| 24. |
- Fahlström, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Chronic Achilles tendon pain treated with eccentric calf-muscle training
- 2003
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In: Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0942-2056 .- 1433-7347. ; 11:5, s. 327-333
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Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Injuries involving the Achilles tendon and manifested as chronic tendon pain are common, especially among recreational athletes. In a pilot study on a small group of patients with chronic painful midportion Achilles tendinosis, eccentric calf-muscle training was shown to give good clinical results. The aim of this prospective study was to investigate if the previously achieved good clinical results could be reproduced in a larger group of patients, and also to investigate the effects of eccentric calf-muscle training in patients with chronic insertional Achilles tendon pain. Seventy-eight consecutive patients, having chronic painful Achilles tendinosis at the mid-portion (2–6 cm level) in a total of 101 tendons (55 unilateral and 23 bilateral), and thirty consecutive patients with chronic insertional Achilles tendon pain in 31 tendons (29 unilateral and one bilateral) were treated with eccentric calf-muscle training for 12 weeks. Most patients were recreational athletes. Evaluation of the amount of tendon pain during activity was recorded on a visual analogue scale (VAS), before and after treatment. In 90 of the 101 Achilles tendons (89%) with chronic painful mid-portion Achilles tendinosis, treatment was satisfactory and the patients were back on their reinjury activity level after the 12-week training regimen. In these patients, the amount of pain during activity, registered on the VAS-scale (mean±SD), decreased ignificantly from 66.8±19.4 to 10.2±13.7. On the contrary, in only ten of the tendons (32%) with chronic insertional Achilles tendon pain was treatment satisfactory, with a significant decrease on the VAS-scale (mean±SD), from 68.3±7.0 to 13.3±13.2. Our conclusion is that treatment with eccentric calf-muscle training produced good clinical results in patients with chronic painful mid-portion Achilles tendinosis, but not in patients withchronic insertional Achilles tendon pain.
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| 25. |
- Fahlström, Martin, et al.
(author)
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Painful conditions in the Achilles tendon region : a common problem in middle-aged competitive badminton players.
- 2002
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In: Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy. - : Springer Science and Business Media LLC. - 0942-2056 .- 1433-7347. ; 10:1, s. 57-60
-
Journal article (peer-reviewed)abstract
- Overuse injuries are the most frequent type in badminton, generally localized in the legs. An earlier study found 32% of young Swedish elite badminton players to have experienced disabling pain in the Achilles tendon region during the previous 5 years. The present investigation examined the prevalence and characteristics of painful conditions in the Achilles tendon region in 32 middle-aged competitive badminton players by means of questionnaire and physiotherapist's examination. Pain in the Achilles tendon region was reported by 44%, either presently or during the past 5 years, generally localized in the middle portion of the tendon. Symptoms had lasted 2 weeks-1 year (96 days). On the competition days 22% of the reported pain currently in the region. Age was found to be correlated to Achilles tendon pain, but there was no relationship between symptoms of pain and body mass index, gender, training quantity, or years of playing badminton. In conclusion, Achilles tendon pain seems to be relatively common among Swedish middle-aged competitive badminton players, particularly in the older ones.
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